Offseason Status Update: The Long Winter Begins

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

...This isn't necessarily an indictment of his long-term outlook, but Miranda still has a lot to prove before being handed the reins as an Opening Day first baseman on a team that wants to contend...

...I don't know why that's treated as some sort of anti-Miranda bias, it's just reality. He's played almost 300 major-league games and produced less than 2 WAR total. He hasn't shown the ability to be productive for more than a few weeks at a time...

I can understand the desire to have a more proven player slated into the starter position, but I think there are plenty of playoff hopeful teams who'd be okay rolling with Miranda at 1B. Miranda's bat (apart from trying to play through a sprained shoulder in 2023) has been solid for nearly 900 plate appearances in 2 seasons. That's a pretty solid track record for a pre-arb guy.

In regard to WAR expectations, players with similar bats to Miranda's wRC+ 115 who are listed as 1B in Fanraphs (+/- 5pts of wRC+) with fWAR
115 Salvador Perez = 3.2
119 Christian Walker = 3.0
114 Carlos Santana = 3.0
117 Matt Olson = 2.6
118 Josh Naylor = 2.3
119 Michael Busch = 2.3
120 Yandy Diaz = 1.9
The range from best case to worst is basically 2-3 WAR. I don't think it's unfair to expect Miranda playing 1B will be at that 2 WAR level.

I copied this from another article posted today
Apr 52PA, .280/.308/.480 BABIP .308, 1.9% BB, 17.3% K, EV 89.7mph, Barrel 4.9%, Hard Hit 34.1%
May 91PA, .271/.308/.424 BABIP .286, 4.4% BB, 14.3% K, EV 88.2mph, Barrel 6.8%, Hard Hit 39.7%
Jun 98PA, .333/.388/.552 BABIP .351, 8.2% BB, 12.2% K, EV 91.2mph, Barrel 10.4%, Hard Hit 44.2%
Jul 44PA, .439/.477/.634 BABIP .515, 2.3% BB, 15.9% K, EV 87.8mph, Barrel 5.9%, Hard Hit 41.2%
Aug 88PA, .232/.273/.354 BABIP .264, 4.5% BB, 12.5% K, EV 89.3mph, Barrel 4.2%, Hard Hit 41.7%
Sep 56PA, .196/.196/.250 BABIP .262, 0.0% BB, 25.0% K, EV 85.0mph, Barrel 0.0%, Hard Hit 26.2%

Miranda was good to outstanding with his results for 4 months straight this year, and his metrics in August suggested his results were unlucky (expected with the extremely lucky July). Miranda produced above average results in June, July, August, and September straight in 2022 as well after a very slow start for the rookie in May, 2022. Two separate healthy seasons where Miranda produced for at least 4 straight months each year. That's more than a couple weeks.

The arguments you (and other TD writers) are making don't seem to hold up to fair scrutiny. I don't think Miranda is an All Star or anything. Just that all indications are when placed in a defensive position he's actually suited to play, with the bat he's had over the vast majority of two separate seasons, he's a more solid choice than he's being credited for around here.

I don't think I have anything more to add to the discussion at this point so if you disagree, it's not like I'll lose my mind over it or something. Opinions will always vary on players no matter how good or bad they play.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I don't know that there currently is a plan but I do think they will strongly prioritize finding a more experienced and natural first baseman to slot ahead of him, at least for the start of the season. Maybe they'll come up empty. But I would be shocked if they're saying right now, "We're fine at first base, we got Miranda."

Why does it seem like the Twins do not view Royce Lewis as an option to play first base? I'm not seeing much in the way of positives of handing him third base again. The pitching staff must be wondering if the Twins have any plans to upgrade their defense.

[sweetmusicviola16]

In the words of Oliver Hardy: "here's another fine mess you've gotten me into."

[DocBauer]

I think we're going to have a long offseason to debate position by position, but I'm just going to hit on various points here:

1] PAYROLL: And this is the million dollar question isn't it? Pun intended. Despite what's been publicly stated, will they reverse gears and lower payroll? IMO, no they won't. The Pohlad's are looking at receiving $1.5-6B coming in the next 6-12 months. There's little to no reason to LOWER the product your trying to sell. For that matter, I wouldn't be shocked if Joe manuevered managed to talk the family in to a small increase as a "parting gift" to the team. I mean, $15-20M split between 10 family members is a little over $1M per person when they might all be looking at a $150M share. NOT saying that will happen, but we're talking a drop in the bucket to not cut payroll.

2] The Twins need to get faster and more athletic overall as a team. A little better defense sure wouldn't hurt. Luckily, there's some of those guys on the way, a couple of which might be ready this season. But I'm not sure I see much in the way of FA or trades this offseason that add that. I think the team may end up working more around depth pieces that can help, less in the way of full time players.

2A] Being limited doesn't mean there are zero possibilities to add here and there. I'm hoping the Twins can keep both Helman and Keirsey around for 2025. They may end up as nothing but AAAA players. But you don't know if you don't give them a shot. They offer the POTENTIAL to be good defense players with some speed to help the roster depth and provide some of that speed and athleticism. That's part of the reason I'm hoping they can keep Castro.

3] I expect them to explore trades for Vazquez and Paddack to gain some $ room to make a couple moves. We've hashed those possibilities many times already so I won't go in to detail. But I believe either, or both, could be moved.

4] I expect one surprise trade. They have enough young talent in the system to withstand such a move. I can see Lee or Keaschall, maybe even the just drafted Culpepper as being options in a move to acquire a young catcher from someone...and arm probably included...or a young 1B, or a talented RH OF to balance the lineup. I'm not sure I see as SP or a Jax or Duran being moved as you then weaken another portion of your team. And those kind of guys are not only hard to replace, they still aren't overly expensive for the next couple of years.

5] IMO, in no particular order, the priorities are A] figuring out 1B, B] figuring out 2B, C] finding a solid RH bat for the OF to balance the lineup that can actually do OK against RHP, D] Come up with a viable, relatively proven LHRP for the pen instead of being "forced" to depend to heavily on Funderburk/Headrick/Moran.

There's already an interesting OP concerning the Twins looking for a young catcher. Maybe that's where that one sort of big trade comes in to play. From there, you are more free to move Vazquez and use the $ savings to address the other spots I've mentioned.

2B has options on hand from Lee, if not moved, Castro if kept, Julien if he rebounds, and Keaschall at some point if not moved. Maybe Eeles even enters the equation at some point.

1B will include Miranda at some point I'm sure. I'm NOT saying 1B isn't important and that good defense isn't great to have there. But 1B and LF are the two spots on the field where you can live with a lower defensive player with a good/contributing bat. The past few seasons we've seen Sano, Arraez, and Solano suddenly move to 1B and at least be competent there on the fly. Miranda actually improved at 3B this year, has potential to improve with work and experience there, Julien's previous bat could be an option there, etc. I WANT a full time, quality player there. But I don't know that adding from the outside for that player NOW is going to happen. I'm certain the FO will be looking for a good fit and opportunity there, I'm just not certain the move is there just yet.

For the love of all that is good about baseball, can't they find a decent RH bat for the OF that doesn't stink against RHP? Maybe a RH version of Kepler? Doesn't have to be an All Star caliber player, just a good, solid bat.

The recent OP about possible LH pen arms that might be available was very interesting. It offered up at least a little bit of hope there might be an addition that could be made there that doesn't blow up payroll. I have at least a little faith in a couple of lefties on hand, but I'd like them better as a secondary option for the pen.

I don't know how each of these will be addressed, or how to address them just days after the WS ended. I don't believe this team needs an overhaul, but it does need a re-tool here and there. And those are the spots that need to be addressed, whether internally or externally. It might not be easy, but that's why Falvey is in charge and not ME, LOL.

But that's what I see as we prepare for the winter.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Guys and Gals...just finished watching. Why Baseball is such a great game and why we are so passionate about it?

Enjoy!

 

[nicksaviking]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I don't understand the love for Miranda as a regular first baseman.

What is the best case scenario there? .750 OPS?

That's gonna get us back into the postseason??

Well he’s only hitting his prime years and he’s been at .750 OPS in two of his three seasons. I don’t see that as his best case scenario.

But really, if they have only $10-15M to spend (and I suspect the 130M promise might be reneged), I don’t suspect you’re getting much of an upgrade at 1B for that amount. I’d take the .750 OPS at 1B already in hand and look to improve elsewhere. 

Miranda had the fifth highest OPS+ on the team last year. It's understandable if someone doesn't believe in him, but I don't understand how there aren't a dozen players one wouldn't believe in even less.

[nicksaviking]

8 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I didn't say he was unplayable there. Just that he shouldn't be viewed as the Plan A starter at first base next year -- based partially on his defensive aptitude, partially on the way this team values good defense at 1B, and partially on his lack of power at the plate. He had zero home runs in the second half! 

Do they prioritize good defense at 1B? Not when Sano was here, not when Alex Kirilloff was the primary 1B all off season until signing Santana two weeks before spring training opened.

Miranda was the primary 1B in 2022, I think you're underestimating their acceptance of his glove and overestimating what they demand from the defense.

I know there is an unfair assumption that if you can play any other position you can play 1B, which isn't true, but honestly, being able to play 3B is perhaps the best indicator you can. Right handed players have to backhand balls at the hot corner which is the most similar play to snagging errant short hops from the infielders, and with right handers, their glove hand directly guards the line at 1B. If there is one position that should translate to 1B, it's 3B, and Miranda hasn't shown anything to prove otherwise.

Spend the money elsewhere, there's likely not a 13M upgrade, and if there was, there'd no money to upgrade anywhere else. This spot would be very, very low on my priority list.

 

[Brandon]

This will be a slow offseason.  The big moves are trading Paddack and his exorbitant 7.5 million salary and the Twins will sign Jorge Polanco to a 1 year 3 million contract with 1 or 2 million in incentives.  I hope they resign Santana but I can also see him going to San Diego or another team that wants a low cost 1B.  Another signing could be Taylor on a 1 year 1 or 2 million contract.  He had a bad season last year and so i am sure he wont cost much.  and a few minor league signings for relievers and what else is on the list of things to do?  

[Fezig]

Julien ahead of Lee - No. No. No. No. 

He has a brick glove and a hole in his bat.

[lake_guy]

The entire Twins FO are as they say in politics "lame ducks".  Highly unlikely the new owner(s) will keep Falvey or his coaching staff.  Anything the FO does has to be viewed through the lens of no negative impact to the sale, which I think the Pohlads are highly motivated to complete ASAP, to plug that gaping hole in their finances from the commercial real estate hole they're in.

So what improves the sale of the team?  Low payroll for starters given the RSN revenue implosion.  Can see it go either way with Buxton, C4 and Lopez, arguments to keep/trade any of them make sense depending on return.  But quality pitching is still at the top of the priority list so I suspect Lopez is the last thing a new owner would want removed.  

MLB rosters are gonna shift radically to young, cheap and already available players on the team, how else to deal with the payroll implosion?

[D.C Twins]

On 11/1/2024 at 1:14 PM, SteveLV said:

Miranda playing 1B is the least of our worries on this roster.

Lopez is an extremely valuable trade piece.  One option to dump salary would be to package him with Vasquez and/or Paddack (or all 3) to a high revenue team for a slew of young, hopefully good players.

If someone comes asking about Correa, and it is a market he would like to play in, pull the trigger.  Same for Buxton.

In other words:  Tear it down to the studs and start playing all the young, inexpensive players to see who can play and who can't.  We are stuck in the middle now and it isn't going to yield post-season success and is only frustrating for fans.

Meanwhile, hope the Pohlads find a buyer who is interested in fielding a competitive team in the current MLB environment.

This... this... aaaaaaaaand (unfortunately) THIS!

[Nick Nelson]

13 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Do they prioritize good defense at 1B? Not when Sano was here, not when Alex Kirilloff was the primary 1B all off season until signing Santana two weeks before spring training opened.

Miranda was the primary 1B in 2022, I think you're underestimating their acceptance of his glove and overestimating what they demand from the defense.

I know there is an unfair assumption that if you can play any other position you can play 1B, which isn't true, but honestly, being able to play 3B is perhaps the best indicator you can. Right handed players have to backhand balls at the hot corner which is the most similar play to snagging errant short hops from the infielders, and with right handers, their glove hand directly guards the line at 1B. If there is one position that should translate to 1B, it's 3B, and Miranda hasn't shown anything to prove otherwise.

Spend the money elsewhere, there's likely not a 13M upgrade, and if there was, there'd no money to upgrade anywhere else. This spot would be very, very low on my priority list.

I agree that they didn't used to prioritize 1B defense, in the days of Cron and Sano. But I get the impression they've changed their view in recent years. They spent a good chunk of their available resources the past two offseasons on Joey Gallo and Carlos Santana, largely because of their gloves at 1B. They were open about that.

This year they saw the impact that Santana's defense had all season long, saving runs time and time again. They know they need to get sharper defensively. And after all that, they're gonna run out Miranda – a verifiably poor defender thus far with like a dozen games of 1B experience the past couple years – to try and corral throws from Lewis and Julien or what have you? I just don't see it. I could well be wrong. The points yall are making are definitely valid. 

[TopGunn#22]

Cron was actually more than adequate defensively at 1B for the twins in 2019.  I think Doc Bauer does a great job of summarizing.  The Pohlad's need to be careful what they do because they need a competitive team to maximize their sale.  They played with fire last season and they got scortched.

So far, there has been nothing leaked about potential buyers but I've got to believe some people quietly reached out to the Pohlad family as soon as the announcement was made.  They will not simply just "run it back" because it's clear the division (with the exception of the White Sox) has moved past them as things presently stand.

So the Twins won't stand pat, but they won't tear the whole thing down to the studs either.  And they shouldn't.  There is a decent core, but some glaring holes with the roster that haven't been addressed in far too long.  When you have a glut of LH outfield bats, you don't sign Joey Gallo.  You just don't.

I could see one major surprise trade like Doc Bauer suggested.  It won't be Lopez.  It won't be Correa.  It probably won't be Ryan or Ober.  But I think it could be Buxton.  His $15 million dollar salary is treated like an albatross by all of us here on TD.  In reality, it's a drop in the bucket to many teams Buxton just might drop his no-trade.  The Red Sox don't need him, they have Duran, Abreu and Rafaela.  They have plenty of options.  But I'll bet the Yankees would love to move Judge back to RF and Soto to LF if they could get Buxton.  The Dodgers would be interested if they decided to make Edman the starter at SS.

They could find somebody to make the move.  Buxton's value has never been higher.  He finally played in 100 games for the 2nd time in his career.  Consider this:  If a guy plays in 100 games that amounts to just 62% of the total schedule.  No matter how good a player is (or could be) a team like the Twins cannot win and SUSTAIN winning, if one of their "Stars" is only available about half the time.  A team like the Dodgers or Yankees CAN make that work, because they have the extra payroll to have a solid backup.  Buxton will never be more marketable than he is right now.  It's time to move on.  

If there is a SP that I think they could move, it just might be SWR.  His value is at an all-time high.  They have Festa and Matthews behind him with Jax being a Wild Card as a rotation option if the Twins give him the chance.  I'd rather hold onto Lopez, Ryan and Ober and look at what kind of return I could get for SWR. 

Maybe the Twins offer Wallner, SWR and Paddack for Teel and something else?  I think tony&rodney and I agree as do several others that we need to acquire a Catcher who is young and on the verge of making the big leagues.  Jeffers isn't the answer.  Vasquez to Miami is a strong possibility. 

A major overhaul of the roster is not going to happen.  A couple of minor moves around the fringes will not move the needle to the point that there is sufficient fan excitement to facilitate a favorable sale for the Pohlad family.   Each trade should be made with a plan for what the NEXT move is going to be.  It's Chess.  Not Checkers.