Bailey Ober is the Twins' Best Homegrown Pitcher Since…

[Cody Christie]

Over the last two seasons, Bailey Ober has established himself as one of the American League’s best starting pitchers. The Twins have seen few pitchers of Ober’s caliber come through the system over the last two decades.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

It can be challenging for fans of any organization to look on the bright side when a team is In the middle of a frustrating stretch of games. Fingers get pointed at the players, the manager, and the ownership group for various reasons. However, one thing has become abundantly clear in the season’s second half– Bailey Ober is one of the American League’s best starting pitchers. 

The Twins drafted Ober in the 12th round of the 2017 MLB Draft from the College of Charleston. He fits a specific type of pitcher this front office has targeted in drafting and developing. He’s a tall, right-handed pitcher from a lesser-known college who can add velocity and improve his pitch mix. During the 2020 season, Ober worked on his strength, conditioning, and pitching mechanics to increase his velocity and put himself on the prospect map.

Ober made his big-league debut during the 2021 season with mixed results. In 92 1/3 innings, he posted a 4.19 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. He improved during the 2022 season, with his ERA (3.21) and WHIP (1.05) dropping. However, he was limited to less than 60 innings as he bounced up and down from Triple-A. Ober has established himself at the big-league level over the last two seasons. 

Since 2023, he ranks 10th among AL starting pitchers in fWAR. His BB/9, K/9, BABIP, and LOB% rank in the top five among AL starters, and his WPA is ahead of pitchers like Pablo López, Luis Castillo, and Kevin Gausman. He’s in an elite company and seems to be finding another level in 2024.  

So, what does it mean to be homegrown? Many fans will argue over what it truly means to be homegrown. In recent years, the Twins have added Joe Ryan, who had yet to make his big-league debut but had been drafted and developed in the Rays system. He’s continued to develop as a pitcher since joining the organization, but Minnesota didn’t draft him. For this article, the pitchers below were drafted and developed in the Twins organization. Here are some of the other homegrown options for the Twins over the last two decades. 

Homegrown Option 1: José Berríos
The Twins drafted Berríos with the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft out of high school in Puerto Rico. He quickly became a top-100 prospect and peaked as a consensus top-30 prospect entering the 2016 season. Berríos spent parts of six seasons in a Twins uniform and was selected to two All-Star teams. In over 780 innings, he posted a 4.08 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP while accumulating 10.0 WAR with two seasons of 3.5 WAR or higher. During his Twins tenure, he was considered among the AL’s best-starting pitchers, so he’s the most recent homegrown pitcher at a similar level to Ober. 

Homegrown Option 2: Kyle Gibson
Gibson was selected by the Twins with the 22nd pick in the 2009 MLB Draft from the University of Missouri. (Pay no attention to the future Hall of Fame outfielder taken shortly after him). Gibson was never an All-Star with the Twins, but he compiled solid numbers over seven seasons. He posted a 4.52 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP in over 1000 innings. That doesn’t tell the whole story of his Twins tenure. He led the team in rWAR during the 2015 season and finished second during the 2018 season behind Eddie Rosario. Gibson likely ranks behind Berríos in the homegrown rankings, but he’s managed to pitch 12 seasons and make an All-Star team. 

Homegrown Option 3: Scott Baker
The Twins took Baker with their second-round pick in 2003 from Oklahoma State University. He pitched 958 innings across seven seasons with the Twins and posted a 4.15 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. His best season was in 2008 when he posted a 3.45 ERA in 172 1/3 innings and finished second on the team in rWAR behind Joe Mauer. Baker fits the mold of the previous front office regime with a low strikeout rate and the ability to pound the zone with strikes. He outperformed expectations but ranks behind Gibson and Berríos. 

Other pitchers are potentially on their way to joining the names listed above. David Festa and Zebby Matthews have shot up prospect rankings based on their 2024 performance. Minnesota has other pitchers in the farm system who are expected to impact the big-league roster in the coming years, including Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, and Charlee Soto. There are no guarantees that any of these arms will be as good as Ober, so it’s time for fans to appreciate how good he has been for the Twins. 

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Is Ober the best homegrown pitcher in recent memory? Should any other pitchers be in the conversation? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.  

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[LambchoP]

Ober has been a good send for this rotation. We should have a solid 1-3 next year with Lopez, Ober and Ryan. I'm guessing 4 and 5 will be SWR and Paddack/Festa, but I really hope we sign a veteran who can eat innings until Zebby/Morris/Lewis etc are actually ready. Depth is key, as we already know. 

[stringer bell]

That Ober was a middle-round selection who has thrived as a pro makes his breakthrough even sweeter for the Twins. Also, he's already 29 years old, so the Twins will have team control until he's 32. 

Can they repeat this success with Festa and Matthews? If so, it bodes well for the future of the franchise.

[NYCTK]

I really like Ober. I made call with my buddy that he'd receive a Cy Young vote this year. And while that likely won't happen, it wasn't a ridiculous call in the end. 

[Blyleven2011]

What no respect for radke  , plenty of solid seasons  and he was a homegrown player ....

He ranks right up there , just a forgotten man from the writers list  ...

[Road trip]

Glen Perkins didn't work out as a starter, but he was a very good reliever for a few seasons and just fits under the "developed in the last two decades" mark.

 

[bean5302]

41 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

What no respect for radke  , plenty of solid seasons  and he was a homegrown player ....

He ranks right up there , just a forgotten man from the writers list  ...

Article talks about the home grown crew in the last 2 decades. Gotta turn the clock back further for Radke since he retired 18 years ago, and made his debut 29 years ago.

Liriano gets passed over because he wasn't drafted by the Twins, though he spent time in the low minors with the Twins.

Santana was a rule 5 pick, but he made it to the Twins having only been in the low minors. Santana spent 48 innings at AAA for the Red Wings in 2002.

Joe Ryan was already been pitching in the high minors for a couple years before joining the Twins where he had a whopping 4 innings on our minor league system. The Twins get credit for refining him while at the MLB level, trying to find pitches Ryan could work into his repertoire, but they didn't develop him to get him to MLB.

[bean5302]

Ober's a good pitcher, but the excitement about drafting and developing a mid rotation arm can only get traction due to the barren list presented in the article.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

Glen Perkins didn't work out as a starter, but he was a very good reliever for a few seasons and just fits under the "developed in the last two decades" mark.

 

Perkins is in the Jax category ahead of Duffey.  Probably tied maybe a little ahead of Tyler Rogers.

Cory Lewis is also a prospect who reached AAA this season on the Twins pitching prospect chart.

Kyle Gibson gets no love here?  First round draft pick has over 100 career wins and is on track to finish between 130-150.  
 

Berríos is at 99 career wins.  He could make it to 200 if he stays healthy.

[gil4]

7 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

What no respect for radke  , plenty of solid seasons  and he was a homegrown player ....

He ranks right up there , just a forgotten man from the writers list  ...

I thought Radke, too, but it was conservative rating of Ober, not disrespect for Radke, that made the author not list Radke.  

[lecroy24fan]

10 hours ago, Brandon said:

Kyle Gibson gets no love here?  First round draft pick has over 100 career wins and is on track to finish between 130-150.  

He's ranked behind Berrios in the article...

[Linus]

I don’t care about rankings per se as they are so inexact. Bailey is a good pitcher who is pretty consistent. He usually provides a start where the Twins have a good chance to win. That’s really all you can want from a non ace and is really valuable. 

[Parfigliano]

Baily is the #1.  Pablo #2.  Deal.

[Road trip]

11 hours ago, Brandon said:

Perkins is in the Jax category ahead of Duffey.  Probably tied maybe a little ahead of Tyler Rogers.

 

Good mention on Rogers, as he also had a nice run.

I certainly hope Jax catches or exceeds Perkins, but right now Perkins is way ahead of Jax.  Give Jax 2 to 3 more good years and he might equal Perkins, though I doubt he ever comes close to the number of saves Perkins has, or his string of All Star Game appearances.

[Parfigliano]

Ober is the #1.  Pablo #2

[Parfigliano]

12 hours ago, Brandon said:

Perkins is in the Jax category ahead of Duffey.  Probably tied maybe a little ahead of Tyler Rogers.

Cory Lewis is also a prospect who reached AAA this season on the Twins pitching prospect chart.

Kyle Gibson gets no love here?  First round draft pick has over 100 career wins and is on track to finish between 130-150.  
 

Berríos is at 99 career wins.  He could make it to 200 if he stays healthy.

Berrios....200 Ws.  He's good.

Got away.

[Parfigliano]

12 hours ago, Brandon said:

Perkins is in the Jax category ahead of Duffey.  Probably tied maybe a little ahead of Tyler Rogers.

Cory Lewis is also a prospect who reached AAA this season on the Twins pitching prospect chart.

Kyle Gibson gets no love here?  First round draft pick has over 100 career wins and is on track to finish between 130-150.  
 

Berríos is at 99 career wins.  He could make it to 200 if he stays healthy.

Berrios.  Pitcher.  

[Otaknam]

Radke should be at the top of this list, and it’s not even close. A simple Google search on TWINS pitching would have made this apparent.

[lecroy24fan]

5 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Radke should be at the top of this list, and it’s not even close. A simple Google search on TWINS pitching would have made this apparent.

Radke's career ended just as the timeframe outlined was started. He was there the first 2 years of it.

[bean5302]

On 9/21/2024 at 10:38 PM, Parfigliano said:

Baily is the #1.  Pablo #2.  Deal.

Irvin is the #1, Dobnak is the #2. Deal.

[bean5302]

On 9/22/2024 at 10:33 AM, Otaknam said:

Radke should be at the top of this list, and it’s not even close. A simple Google search on TWINS pitching would have made this apparent.

Radke predates the 20 years ago note in the article.

Radke is the 2nd best pitcher in Twins history behind Bert Blyleven. Like 45 career WAR... had he undergone surgery in 2005, I think he likely would have continued his career and had a legit case for the Baseball HoF. People seriously underestimate how excellent he was.