Bailey Ober is the Twins' Best Homegrown Pitcher Since…

It can be challenging for fans of any organization to look on the bright side when a team is In the middle of a frustrating stretch of games. Fingers get pointed at the players, the manager, and the ownership group for various reasons. However, one thing has become abundantly clear in the season’s second half– Bailey Ober is one of the American League’s best starting pitchers. 

The Twins drafted Ober in the 12th round of the 2017 MLB Draft from the College of Charleston. He fits a specific type of pitcher this front office has targeted in drafting and developing. He’s a tall, right-handed pitcher from a lesser-known college who can add velocity and improve his pitch mix. During the 2020 season, Ober worked on his strength, conditioning, and pitching mechanics to increase his velocity and put himself on the prospect map.

Ober made his big-league debut during the 2021 season with mixed results. In 92 1/3 innings, he posted a 4.19 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. He improved during the 2022 season, with his ERA (3.21) and WHIP (1.05) dropping. However, he was limited to less than 60 innings as he bounced up and down from Triple-A. Ober has established himself at the big-league level over the last two seasons. 

Since 2023, he ranks 10th among AL starting pitchers in fWAR. His BB/9, K/9, BABIP, and LOB% rank in the top five among AL starters, and his WPA is ahead of pitchers like Pablo López, Luis Castillo, and Kevin Gausman. He’s in an elite company and seems to be finding another level in 2024.  

So, what does it mean to be homegrown? Many fans will argue over what it truly means to be homegrown. In recent years, the Twins have added Joe Ryan, who had yet to make his big-league debut but had been drafted and developed in the Rays system. He’s continued to develop as a pitcher since joining the organization, but Minnesota didn’t draft him. For this article, the pitchers below were drafted and developed in the Twins organization. Here are some of the other homegrown options for the Twins over the last two decades. 

Homegrown Option 1: José Berríos
The Twins drafted Berríos with the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft out of high school in Puerto Rico. He quickly became a top-100 prospect and peaked as a consensus top-30 prospect entering the 2016 season. Berríos spent parts of six seasons in a Twins uniform and was selected to two All-Star teams. In over 780 innings, he posted a 4.08 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP while accumulating 10.0 WAR with two seasons of 3.5 WAR or higher. During his Twins tenure, he was considered among the AL’s best-starting pitchers, so he’s the most recent homegrown pitcher at a similar level to Ober. 

Homegrown Option 2: Kyle Gibson
Gibson was selected by the Twins with the 22nd pick in the 2009 MLB Draft from the University of Missouri. (Pay no attention to the future Hall of Fame outfielder taken shortly after him). Gibson was never an All-Star with the Twins, but he compiled solid numbers over seven seasons. He posted a 4.52 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP in over 1000 innings. That doesn’t tell the whole story of his Twins tenure. He led the team in rWAR during the 2015 season and finished second during the 2018 season behind Eddie Rosario. Gibson likely ranks behind Berríos in the homegrown rankings, but he’s managed to pitch 12 seasons and make an All-Star team. 

Homegrown Option 3: Scott Baker
The Twins took Baker with their second-round pick in 2003 from Oklahoma State University. He pitched 958 innings across seven seasons with the Twins and posted a 4.15 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. His best season was in 2008 when he posted a 3.45 ERA in 172 1/3 innings and finished second on the team in rWAR behind Joe Mauer. Baker fits the mold of the previous front office regime with a low strikeout rate and the ability to pound the zone with strikes. He outperformed expectations but ranks behind Gibson and Berríos. 

Other pitchers are potentially on their way to joining the names listed above. David Festa and Zebby Matthews have shot up prospect rankings based on their 2024 performance. Minnesota has other pitchers in the farm system who are expected to impact the big-league roster in the coming years, including Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, and Charlee Soto. There are no guarantees that any of these arms will be as good as Ober, so it’s time for fans to appreciate how good he has been for the Twins. 

Is Ober the best homegrown pitcher in recent memory? Should any other pitchers be in the conversation? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.