Letting Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa Take Things Slow Only Strengthens Twins for October

[Sherry Cerny]

As MLB teams gear up for the stretch run of the 2024 season, the Twins are without two of their best players, due to injuries that they might be able to play through, if the situation were more urgent. This strategic decision reflects a long-term vision aimed at balancing immediate success with future potential.

Image courtesy of © John Froschauer-USA TODAY Sports

One of the primary benefits of giving younger players increased playing time is the opportunity to build depth, and one thing that the organization certainly has is depth. The Twins' lineup has long relied on the contributions of veteran leaders, but playoff success often hinges on the ability to call upon a deep roster.

Mitigating Injury Risks
This strategic rest can be invaluable for players like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, who have dealt with their share of injuries over the course of this season. Yes, Buxton is on the injured list with a hip issue, but the collision with the wall he suffered a week before that and his earlier stint on the shelf with inflammation in his knee are part of the calculus, too. Ditto for Correa, sidelined by plantar fasciitis but worth protecting especially in the light of last year's similar problem, plus the intercostal strain that shelved him in April and some plunkings that bruised and battered him earlier in the summer.

By reducing their workload in the regular season's final weeks, the Twins can minimize the risk of injuries that might otherwise jeopardize their postseason availability. This precautionary measure ensures that both players are fresh and fully prepared for the demands of the playoffs. Despite missing them, the Twins have thrived in their absence. They are currently in second place in the AL Central, with a record of 70-55. This is mainly due to the contributions of several young players who have stepped up in a big way.

Fostering a Competitive Culture
While the big contracts and impressive track records boasted by Buxton and Correa lead fans to demand that they're out there at every possible opportunity, both players have showed increasing maturity and patience with their own injury problems. For younger players, this recuperative time for the high-paid stars is a powerful motivator and a chance to demonstrate their value. The result is a more engaged and driven roster, where each member is focused on contributing to the team's success.

In providing young players with more at-bats and defensive innings, the Twins are able to assess their readiness for high-pressure situations. This enhances the roster's flexibility and builds a foundation of experience that can be crucial in October and for replacing players.

These injury absences have also allowed veterans like Carlos Santana and Max Kepler to compete to keep their positions. Santana, who is a one-year signing, is certainly making a case why re-signing him may be one of the best things the club could do, even as José Miranda has asserted himself. Kepler, who is coming up on free agency, has gotten more time to show his worth, which some fans argue is not worth what he is up for in the offseason. Still, were Buxton and Correa both in the mix at this moment, the team wouldn't be getting a chance to regularly play all of Kepler, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner, without a substantial opportunity cost.

Impact on the Younger Players
The increased playing time for younger players like shortstop Brooks Lee, Wallner, Larnach, and utility man Austin Martin presents several critical advantages, like experience in crucial situations, confidence, and the biggest one: chemistry. 

One of the most impressive performers has been Royce Lewis. He is batting .267 with 15 home runs and 35 RBIs. Lewis certainly had his setbacks twice in the season, but he is making things happen while healthy--and despite letting Buxton and Correa treat their injuries judiciously, the Twins have had the patience to keep Lewis fresh with days off since his latest return.

We have seen the younger core find great chemistry: Martin, Wallner, Edouard Julien, and Miranda, who have bounced back and forth between Triple-A St. Paul and the parent club, have shown great on-field chemistry and continue to improve. Two of the most significant improvements are Wallner and Martin, on base and defensively.

Wallner has been much better since returning from St. Paul. Last night against San Diego, he had a double and an RBI, pushing up his batting average to .259, and his OPS is one of the highest on the team at .954.

Martin gets on base at roughly an average rate, and makes things happen once he gets there. His defensive play has struggled, but he has taken considerable measures to improve and, in Buxton's absence, has started to look more tenable in center field.

Looking Ahead
The Twins' decision (to the extent that it is one, which might be greater than some realize) to rest Buxton and Correa while leaning on their younger players is not just about the present; it's about crafting a sustainable future. This strategy aligns with the broader goal of developing a resilient and adaptable roster capable of competing at the highest level for years, in addition to ensuring the longer-term health of two players in whom the organization has a huge remaining investment and without whom they would be much less dangerous in October.

As the 2024 postseason approaches, the Twins are positioning themselves not just for a single run at glory but for sustained excellence. By trusting their young talent and strategically managing the workloads of their veterans, the Twins are preparing for the immediate challenge of the playoffs and laying the groundwork for future success. The resulting blend of experience and youth could be the key to a deep postseason run, especially because it makes it more likely that the team will be at full strength when the time for one comes.

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[Jocko87]

[akmanak]

It is like making a trade.

[Rosterman]

Only works if you get to October.

[Montdak]

What October with Rocco?  How many pitches did Jax have tonight?  Not many right.  So why in a big spot and big game not run him back out.  Saving him for tomorrow or the next day or so when there may well be no big spot.  Put in Okert to sidle slatternly around the mound blowing it as could be expected.  Rocco likes to pitch these guys one inning whether they throw 6 or 26 pitches and act like he’s the genius rather than let the players win or lose the game.  Did anyone ever tell him how many pitches Nolan Ryan threw for what 25 years?  Oh and Okert is a lefty though .  Rocco ever think they might put in a PH better than the lefty batter.  Oh and another lefty coming up.  Arraez.  Geez who’d ever think he could hit a lefty pitcher?  Who would you rather have pitch to him Okert or Jax?

[Montdak]

Long as I’m riled I’ll continue.  What’s with this oh so rarely green light 3-0?  I’m with Trevor Plouffe in the booth..  Repeatedly I scream at the screen as they watch the fattest pitch imaginable go by and then strike 2 on a pitcher’s pitch and strike 3 completely out of the zone.  Green light should be more the default rather than a rarity.

[Whitey333]

That was about the most ridiculous article I've read on TD.  One huge negative with the team is we have Rocco.  So often he's managing g, if you can call it that, is gearing for the next game and the next while ignoring  the opportunities to win the current game being played.  

[dxpavelka]

54 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

That was about the most ridiculous article I've read on TD.  One huge negative with the team is we have Rocco.  So often he's managing g, if you can call it that, is gearing for the next game and the next while ignoring  the opportunities to win the current game being played.  

And yet they are sitting squarely in a playoff spot.  It's almost as if someone is doing something right.

[insagt1]

There is a danger about always 'playing for the future' too much while ignoring the present. The goal each season allegedly is to win isn't it? Not just chase rainbows of things that might never materialize. Its a balance for sure...but if you have a chance to win now, you take it. How many repeat WS champions have there been in the past decades? Not many. Twins need their best guys out there. 'Saving' Buck and Carlos for later could come back to bite them, while their subs struggle, as many of them have lately, including Lewis, who honestly hasn't produced much in a month now, despite the odd HR.

The debate will continue to rage as to 'win now' or play 'for the future'. Both sides have merit. Me...I'm in my 8th decade. I want to win as soon as possible.

[LambchoP]

I'll say it. Sure, resting Correa and Buxton now may help them be a little fresher in October playoffs. Problem is, without them now, do we even make the playoffs? Lately it's looking like a big NO. Our offense is slumping and relying on three rookies in our rotation is incredibly risky. We've been pretty lucky so far with Festa and Zebby, but there are going to be some real tough learning experiences from a guy who was pitching in A ball this year. Our weak bullpen has been exposed as well. Too top heavy. We've a solid group with Duran, Jax, Alcala and Sands. But as we just saw last night, when Rocco sends anyone else out there, disaster usually strikes. I think we need our star players out there playing NOW, or our season may be over before the playoffs. KC playing like they want it bad:(

[bean5302]

18 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I'll say it. Sure, resting Correa and Buxton now may help them be a little fresher in October playoffs. Problem is, without them now, do we even make the playoffs? Lately it's looking like a big NO. Our offense is slumping and relying on three rookies in our rotation is incredibly risky. We've been pretty lucky so far with Festa and Zebby, but there are going to be some real tough learning experiences from a guy who was pitching in A ball this year. Our weak bullpen has been exposed as well. Too top heavy. We've a solid group with Duran, Jax, Alcala and Sands. But as we just saw last night, when Rocco sends anyone else out there, disaster usually strikes. I think we need our star players out there playing NOW, or our season may be over before the playoffs. KC playing like they want it bad:(

I'm not too pessimistic on the Twins making the playoffs, but you're absolutely right on the Twins being far from secure in their position. Boston is just 3.5 games back from the last Wildcard spot.

Realistically, the playoff picture is getting pretty clear in both leagues at this point.
Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox (3.5 GB), Guardians, Royals, Twins, Astros. 7 teams vying for 6 playoff spots, and the Twins do not have a commanding position as the 3rd WC team right now.

The NL is
Phillies, Braves, Mets (2.5 GB), Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants (3.5 GB). The Giants are probably just about out of it just because they're so far behind WC2.

[Brandon]

22 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not too pessimistic on the Twins making the playoffs, but you're absolutely right on the Twins being far from secure in their position. Boston is just 3.5 games back from the last Wildcard spot.

Realistically, the playoff picture is getting pretty clear in both leagues at this point.
Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox (3.5 GB), Guardians, Royals, Twins, Astros. 7 teams vying for 6 playoff spots, and the Twins do not have a commanding position as the 3rd WC team right now.

The NL is
Phillies, Braves, Mets (2.5 GB), Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants (3.5 GB). The Giants are probably just about out of it just because they're so far behind WC2.

Seattle is still in their division race.  Not quite out yet.

[Guest]

IF they make the playoffs....

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

Seattle is still in their division race.  Not quite out yet.

They're 5.0 games back and 64-63 and 6.5 GB from the Wildcard. They're pretty well out of it. 10% chance to win the division according to Fangraphs with less than a 5% shot at a Wildcard. Fangraphs projects them at 82 wins. I mean, it could theoretically happen, but it would be stunning turnaround.

[mrcharlie]

This article would be good reading if the Twins were 6 games up on the the guardians and KC with maybe 9 games to play.  Twins best be far from planning for the playoffs. They have a lot of work to do and looking at the few games gives plenty of reasons to doubt they will be playing in October. 

[August J Gloop]

I assume the players are currently planning to make this run without either of these guys. Not that they don't want them, but reality has to be setting in that Correa and Bux are unlikely to suit up again this year. Correa's other foot seems to be much worse than the first one. 

Bux is likely to be diagnosed with some sort of progeria. He has such bad luck with soft tissue injuries that it makes sense to me there's some sort of underlying cause. It's a bummer that the Two best CFs of this generation both just can't seem to avoid those IL blues.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Not sure where you're getting that "unlikely to suit up this year" comment rom, can you tell us? What I read is that Buxton is just about ready and may be activated tomorrow. If not, probably by Monday. Correa is farther away and may require a few games in AAA given hos long he's been out but he's expected back by mid-September at the latest. I may not be reading the right things though. 

[Sherry Cerny]

On 8/21/2024 at 2:02 AM, Montdak said:

Long as I’m riled I’ll continue.  What’s with this oh so rarely green light 3-0?  I’m with Trevor Plouffe in the booth..  Repeatedly I scream at the screen as they watch the fattest pitch imaginable go by and then strike 2 on a pitcher’s pitch and strike 3 completely out of the zone.  Green light should be more the default rather than a rarity.

So I have to admit, the stance of the article was the youth on the team - but there are a LOT of things that I couldn't put in here that will lead to other articles. THere is NO WAY we make it to October without pitching. There is no way we can fully expect to create a winning postseason without strong bullpen. I really am impressed with the youth, but I do know Carlos and Buck make a difference. Also, Management on the field I agree with Plouffe as well. You are saying a lot of the things I feel. 

[Sherry Cerny]

On 8/22/2024 at 4:31 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

Not sure where you're getting that "unlikely to suit up this year" comment rom, can you tell us? What I read is that Buxton is just about ready and may be activated tomorrow. If not, probably by Monday. Correa is farther away and may require a few games in AAA given hos long he's been out but he's expected back by mid-September at the latest. I may not be reading the right things though. 

Buck says he feels good, but he continues to have problems with inflammation. I don't think he will be ready for a bit longer. 

[Sherry Cerny]

On 8/21/2024 at 4:49 PM, mrcharlie said:

This article would be good reading if the Twins were 6 games up on the the guardians and KC with maybe 9 games to play.  Twins best be far from planning for the playoffs. They have a lot of work to do and looking at the few games gives plenty of reasons to doubt they will be playing in October. 

I'm trying to believe we can do it ... I honestly like the team we have - but Buck and Correa do make a difference. 

[Sherry Cerny]

On 8/21/2024 at 7:08 AM, Whitey333 said:

That was about the most ridiculous article I've read on TD.  One huge negative with the team is we have Rocco.  So often he's managing g, if you can call it that, is gearing for the next game and the next while ignoring  the opportunities to win the current game being played.  

I felt ridiculous only in the sense that I know, there has to be a LOT of better pitching calls made and go ahead runs. I really like the younger guys and I think they can survive without Buck and Correa on the field, but there has to be some serious things done with the pitching and management.