Kiersey

[Mike Sixel]

It's time to see if he can play.... Which I never thought I'd type. But they can't have Martin and Margot the CF.... Well, they can, but I wouldn't

[nicksaviking]

Agreed. The argument is going to be that he's old and is playing against younger competition, but that's hardly his fault, he's done nothing that should have prohibited a promotion for the last two years.

If this was the 2016 Twins, he'd have been called up two years ago. In any case, Margot and Martin aren't helping the team, you might as well try something new and Martin has an option.

[Linus]

I also agree. I would have added him instead of Julien and let him play CF against righties until Buxton gets back and maybe longer. 

[ashbury]

I advocate for Keirsey too, but he does have one problem. He bats lefty.  In a scenario where Buxton is unavailable, you might have a starting outfield of Wallner/Keirsey/Kepler for a couple of weeks, and just one of Margot and Martin to step in when there's a left-handed starter.  The braintrust hardly trusts Wallner at all against lefties, and Keirsey's AAA splits look significant, so we could have a serious problems against LH starters or late-inning relievers.  I don't know the solution to this.

A solution, weeks or months ago, might have been to cash in whatever trade value Keirsey has, as a MLB-ready LH bat with CF skills, in return for a similar righty bat in preference to Margot.  Or trade Larnach similarly, since Wallner makes him a little redundant.  Locating that exact RH trade target/candidate is above my pay grade, however.

Here's another downside to calling him up.  He'll be another player whose name we can't spell.  😀

What I actually don't like is that Keirsey is 27 years old and rotting on the vine.

[USAFChief]

Do we know Keirsey is a good center fielder?

[ashbury]

16 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Do we know Keirsey is a good center fielder?

I've never seen him.  The OOTP scouting report suggests he has CF skills but not extraordinary, and the arm might be the weakest part of his defensive game, a 50 where you'd hope for 60 or above.  Just a game, but they take their scouting a little seriously, and until someone steps up with eyewitness information (he didn't play there in the game I watched last week, and wasn't tested in RF), it's a kinda-sorta datapoint.  I'm thinking he might be a lot like Austin Martin, except he's experienced and Austin doesn't have a lot of games under his belt.

[DocBauer]

His age is actually about right for AAA overall. He's a late bloomer with a solid set of skills who's never gotten his shot yet. Were he a RH hitter, he probably would have been up already. His biggest issue is being a LH hitter. At some point, you can have too many LH bats. Now, recently, that hasn't been an issue due to injuries and the such, to be fair.

I don't know about his arm. I've read and heard reports that he's a legitimately good defensive CF. Margot is average at best these days. Martin is below that. He's made some good plays, but probably as many poor plays out there.

Right or wrong, there IS a concern with the Twins...and a 13 man roster...of having enough RH bats to face LHP about 25-30% of the time. Whether anyone wants to admit it or not, Margot HAS produced WHEN facing LHP at a slightly better than league average.

I doubt anyone has another GG caliber CF just sitting on the bench to replace someone like Buxton when he's out. You fill in best you can.

Martin, unfortunately, hasn't produced much with the bat, more has he been particularly good defensively. And he's actually been worse against LHP, surprisingly. Castro is needed at SS right now due to a pair of injuries, so he can't really help in the OF.

Keirsey might play very good defense in CF. But can he hit at the ML level? We don't know yet. Personally, the way the roster is right now, I think having both Margot and Martin handcuffs them and I also would have given Keirsey a shot. Especially since Martin simply hasn't taken a step forward in any area.

Right now, the OF has 3 LH batters and a single RH one in Margot. But with Farmer back to help the INF, and Martin producing next to nothing, again, I'd just say "the hell with it, get Keirsey up here to play defense and hit 9th and let's see what happens".

FWIW #1: The even older Helman is having another excellent AAA season, but keeps getting injured. 

FWIW #2: I'm not going to disparage the young Martin who might, and hopefully will, take a step forward next year...BUT...this only goes to show the absolute need for ONE, solid, well rounded, but affordable and not great RH OF needed for 2025. Think Margot, but better in CF, and not a disaster against RH pitching. Through trade or FA, that SHOULD be a priority for the FO.

Think someone who can have a .680 OPS against RHP, but .720 against LHP with a little pop and the ability to play across the OF. Not a stud, not an All Star, just a good, solid OF who doesn't have to play daily, but who can if you need him to without embarrassing himself or be a black hole in the lineup.

 

[August J Gloop]

Heavy duty Jake Cave vibes. The similarities in AAA stats and overall player profile are quite striking. 

[Riverbrian]

I have no idea who Kiersay is. Or who Severino is for that matter. 

But... I'm not afraid of youth. I am absolutely afraid of locking in with below average players with the assumption that we can't do better than below average at any major league roster spot.  

We have two players on the Twins roster with an OPS against Right Handed Pitchers that are under .600

I understand that they are on the roster to face Left Handed Pitchers but I want to be clear that they are mere injuries away from being asked to hit right handers in the playoffs and to this date they have both faced an equal amount of Right Handers. 

Teams need to constantly pressure the floor of the roster because you never know when the floor will be needed. 

I like the roster we have... I think we have been performing offensively better than a large majority of teams in MLB. I really don't have any complaints. 

However... I'm never going to take my eye off the entire roster and I'm never going to assume we will stay healthy and I'm never going accept injuries as an excuse when they happen if we remain static with under performing players. I am also never going to assume that the front office or (I for that matter) knows what players will do with opportunity provided. 

The only thing you can do... is deal with those who are not performing when opportunity is provided and provide opportunity to someone else.   

 

 

 

[August J Gloop]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I have no idea who Kiersay is. Or who Severino is for that matter. 

However... I'm never going to take my eye off the entire roster

These two statements seem to be at odds with each other.

[Riverbrian]

33 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

These two statements seem to be at odds with each other.

Seemingly but not really. 

I haven't seen Kiersay or Severino play other than a couple of games that I attended in St. Paul. I make no predictions on what they would do at the major league level. That's why I have no idea who they are. 

I see the stats that they have accumulated at the AAA level and those stats are decent but I make no predictions on what they would do at the major league level. 

When I say that I won't take my eye off the entire roster. I'm talking about the major league roster.

Future health and future needs are yet to be determined. Those 26 man roster curve balls could be thrown at the last moment as we enter the playoffs. I want the Twins front office to plan for the possibility constantly and the best way to plan for it... is not to settle for below average play... ANYWHERE on the 26 man roster. 

I don't look at 9 players on the offensive side of ledger and assume we are set. I look at all 13... because if you have a couple of players on the 26 man roster who are below average. You are an injury or two away from needing below average average to perform in the playoffs. 

I may not know who Keirsay or Severino are but I do know who Margot and Farmer are. 

 

[Trov]

On 8/16/2024 at 10:49 AM, Mike Sixel said:

It's time to see if he can play.... Which I never thought I'd type. But they can't have Martin and Margot the CF.... Well, they can, but I wouldn't

Which one would you DFA?  I would assume Margot, but if Keirsey is not good, now we are out Margot and stuck with only Martin.  I get it, but because Kiersey is not on 40 man someone needs to get DFA first.  Maybe it could be a pitcher we are not using, and you call up Kiersey and option Martin. 

[ashbury]

19 minutes ago, Trov said:

Which one would you DFA?  I would assume Margot, but if Keirsey is not good, now we are out Margot and stuck with only Martin.  I get it, but because Kiersey is not on 40 man someone needs to get DFA first.  Maybe it could be a pitcher we are not using, and you call up Kiersey and option Martin. 

This really gets at the challenge for the front-office when building the roster heading into the season.  Ideally, you have this giant pool of 40 MLB-ready youngsters from your farm system, and they all have minor league options remaining and fewer than (I think) 5 years of major-league service time  If one scuffles, then you send him down to AAA and bring up his replacement.

When you don't have 40 such players, then you have to supplement with other players.  Those players generally are older and can't be sent to the minors in preference to a younger hotshot, due to the CBA and other roster rules.  Our FO surely understood this loss of roster flexibility when they traded for Margot; the player has definitely disappointed me, and I would guess also our FO, but the certainty that a replacement from St Paul would be more productive is a gamble that can't be undone if they cut him.

I know I'm repeating myself but I can't emphasize enough, also, that Keirsey bats lefty, and is simply not a direct replacement for Margot anyway.  He'd be a replacement for Wallner, Larnach, or Kepler, the way our roster is constructed, and that's much more of a stretch to believe he'd be markedly better than any of those three.  You don't have room for 4 lefty outfielders on your major league roster.

So Keirsey is blocked and I continue to wish the FO had figured out a way to cash in his value for something else - someone with CF skills (even if not outstanding there) should be worth something to another team.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

Which one would you DFA?  I would assume Margot, but if Keirsey is not good, now we are out Margot and stuck with only Martin.  I get it, but because Kiersey is not on 40 man someone needs to get DFA first.  Maybe it could be a pitcher we are not using, and you call up Kiersey and option Martin. 

I'd DFA Farmer. If not Farmer, then Richards, Funderburk then Dobnak.

But I'd not lose sleep over Margot.

[RpR]

Cut Martin.

[DJL44]

Buxton should be back in 3 days.

[jorgenswest]

On 8/16/2024 at 4:34 PM, USAFChief said:

Do we know Keirsey is a good center fielder?

Eric Longenhagen in his top 43 Twin prospects has him in the others in a group of 27th man types. He describes Keirsey as a “he can play a good enough center field”. An earlier scouting report from Fangraphs gave him a 45 score as an outfielder (50 is major league average). I am not sure if the 45 is outfielders overall or as a center fielder. He is probably below average when compared to the high bar major leaguer center fielders set but that is likely better than Martin or Margot. His bat might not be as strong as their bats.

I suspect if he was an above average defensive centerfielder someone would have taken him when he was available in the rule 5 draft last winter.

[RpR]

[August J Gloop]

18 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Buxton should be back in 3 days.

This seems very unlikely. Much in the same way that Correa still isn't straight line running or doing any sort of rehab. At this point, the field staff would be foolish to be counting on either of them to be productive at any point this year. They've had some real bad luck with the high end injuries again. 

Keirsey is Jake Cave 2.0. Likely good in tiny doses, but generally not an effective big leaguer.