When Twins' Austin Martin Reaches Base, the Laws of Baseball and Nature Crack

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Minnesota utility man's rookie season is a movie. You know why? Because Martin scores easy.

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

There's no hard analysis to be done here. Sometimes, when a very juicy and noteworthy statistical quirk pops up and grabs your attention as a baseball writer, it turns out a player is doing something exceptional and unusual. Sometimes, it's just a fluke, and there's really nothing to do but wait for it to even out. And sometimes--the funnest times--you realize that there's a glitch in the matrix; that the thin veneer of rationality trying to hide the true, chaotic nature of the universe is chipping away; and that baseball is broken again.

Thus, let me limit the quasi-analysis to a paragraph or two, here. When he reaches base, this year, Austin Martin comes around to score 64.7% of the time. That's not possible. The second-highest Score Rate, if so we can phrase it, belongs to the Orioles' Jorge Mateo, at 50%.

In the last 50 years, here are the only three players to match or exceed a 64.7% Score% in a season in which they had 150 or more plate appearances:

• Willie Wilson, 1978: 67.2%
• Otis Nixon, 1985: 66.0%
• Damian Jackson, 2003: 64.7%

Two of those were accomplished back when half the league played on fields made of Flubber, by men who hardly ever got on base but didn't stop running for even a moment when they did. The third was done by a part-time scrub on one of the only seven lineups in baseball history to include six players with an OPS+ of 120 or higher, playing in an extremely rich league scoring environment and at the bandbox that is Fenway Park. Very often, no one who plays even part-time (as all of these guys did and as Martin does) scores after even 60% of their reaches.

Martin, by contrast, plays for a team with a very good lineup, but not quite the best in the league, at a time when the league doesn't score a crazy number of total runs, by historical standards. So how is he even flirting with this peculiar piece of history?

Well, firstly, of course, the dude is fast. Even when you're well-positioned and play the ball pretty cleanly, he can take an extra base on you.

He's also smart and aggressive. Martin has yet to be thrown out stretching on a hit, or on any non-force advancement attempt with the ball in play. Yet, he goes first-to-third and second-to-home on singles and first-to-home on doubles at higher rates than the league average. He attempts steals at roughly an average rate, and is 7-for-9 when he does. So, this isn't unearned, exactly. 

But honestly, most of it is voodoo.

They say when the devil is near, the near-misses of life become unlucky hits. The wobble in a bike tire yields to a skid into traffic. You drop a knife, it slices your foot instead of bouncing harmlessly away. When Austin Martin is on base, the devil is near.

Defenses turn to mush when Martin is on base, and it's not because he's fast and smart. It's just how chaos works. It's voodoo. However many bases worth of errors are needed to bring him around, that's how many you're about to commit.

The ball can stay in the air as long as it damn well pleases. If Austin Martin's on base, your outfielder's feet are going to be leaden. They're not getting there.

It's not evil. I'm being tongue-in-cheek about the devil stuff. It's the undirected, runaway momentum of entropy, is all. It also works for the benefit of the Twins. Ryan Jeffers is a decent overall hitter. With Austin Martin on base, he's an absolute situational ace, who always puts the ball where it needs to go.

Why Austin Martin? What led the ghost of Henry Chadwick to dust him with this magic? I don't know. Pray on it; discover your truth for yourself. All we can say for sure is that, when Martin gets on base, he comes around to score at a rate that can't be explained by any rationalist's set of baseball facts. You could chalk that up to randomness that will resolve itself by a week from now, but it's way more fun--and not one iota less correct, for such is the nature of randomness--to embrace it as randomness that will never resolve itself, but go on all summer and into the fall.

There's no action item here. The Twins don't need to do anything. Ask the Jurassic Park people about what happens when you try to take control of the uncontrollable. Just enjoy the ride, and when Martin does reach safely, go ahead and mentally count it as a run.

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[bean5302]

It's a pity Martin can tell where the ball will be when he's running the base paths, just not so much when he's playing CF, haha.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Yeah, if he could play a good CF he's be really valuable. As a part time LF, though, his lack of any power makes him pretty average. I would love to see the Twins send him to a Winter league and do nothing but play CF all winter, or at least train for the position the whole off season. That way he can be the RH hitting 4th OF we need and we don't have to have Margot or his equivalent on the roster next year.  

[Doctor Gast]

Martin is naturally an OB machine. Once he gets the swing of things on the MLB level, he'll raise a lot of havoc on the bases.

[Karbo]

His 1st taste of MLB pitchers has been a learning experience so far. I agree with LA Vikes fan that playing winter ball in CF would be a huge help. I have no doubt that he'll be a decent hitter, but a table setter. No he isn't going to hit for much power, but a single and a stolen base works just as well as a double.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

23 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Yeah, if he could play a good CF he's be really valuable. As a part time LF, though, his lack of any power makes him pretty average. I would love to see the Twins send him to a Winter league and do nothing but play CF all winter, or at least train for the position the whole off season. That way he can be the RH hitting 4th OF we need and we don't have to have Margot or his equivalent on the roster next year.  

Completely agree on the development plan.  He's just weirdly valuable on the team from a hitting perspective.  His numbers don't look amazing but he is certainly a catalyst with a bat in his hands.  Now he just needs a spot on the field where he's really good and a winter of pure centerfield action could really help that.

 

[thelanges5]

17 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

SSS so far, but it's very enjoyable to watch him on the bases.  The key for him will be in getting on base enough for it to make a huge difference for this team.  This team needs a few in the lineup like him.  We can't have a lineup full of sluggers and high strikeout guys (although those are better this season).

Since he has no set position, they need to decide if he will replace Willi when he hits FA and we can no longer afford him as our super utility guy, or whether he should focus on CF as an example to be Buck's backup and eventual replacement.

Focus on the OF and he can take the Manny Magoo role in 2025. 

[Jocko87]

Handsome young man, flowing locks, major league baseball player.  I'da expected his score rate to be much higher, TBH.

[Nashvilletwin]

Heir to the legendary Piranhas.

[mikelink45]

He has scored 34 runs - 150 ABs - how many PR appearances?  _0.3 WAR, 233 average for a non powerhitter.  

Okay, it is fun to play with numbers but SSS really applies and this article has not made Martin a valuable piece.  In fact, I hope he can be surpassed next year and that we start to see others move into his position.  I don't dislike him, I just think we have projected him for more than his value and this article is an example.

[Fatbat]

Great writing!!! The only thing that is constant, is change…  and Martin in a state of constantly changing his location on the bases in a quick fashion.  This, in itself is what makes the defense over compensate to stop him …. which leads to all the necessary evil to accomplish his impossible scoring rate.  Don’t expect anything to change. 

[twinstalker]

I think there's a stat somewhere for taking extra bases, which would be a better thing to look at, since it adjusts for production afterwards.