Jack Flaherty Is the Ideal Trade Deadline Acquisition For the Twins

[Cody Schoenmann]

Inner-division trades are rare, especially when above-average starting pitching talent is involved. Do the Twins have any chance of acquiring this resurgent Detroit Tigers starter?

In an article recently published by Dan Hayes of The Athletic, the Twins beat reporter noted, "Rumblings around the organization suggest the Twins are interested in acquiring a rental starting pitcher, something they've avoided doing in the past." Hayes immediately lists Toronto Blue Jays left-handed starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi as a potential "rental" option Minnesota could target. Admittedly, Kikuchi is an ideal target. He would cost roughly $3-4 million the rest of the season (a price tag even the Pohlad family could stomach) while likely being a more viable third-postseason starter than Bailey Ober. However, the monumental attendance increase this past weekend at Target Field could be what pushes the team to acquire an even more expensive yet appealing trade candidate than Kikuchi, and Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty would be the ideal fit.

Signed to a one-year, $14 million contract by the Tigers after spending time with the St. Louis Cardinals and Baltimore Orioles last season, the 28-year-old righty has pitched exceptionally well with Detroit, posting a 3.13 ERA, 2.96 FIP, and a 127-to-17 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 2/3 innings pitched and 392 batters faced. A driving force in his mid-career rejuvenation has been improving his command, collaborating with Chris Fetter (one of the best pitching coaches in MLB), and having the privilege of most of his starts coming in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Flaherty has benefitted from these favorable circumstances, turning his slider and knuckle curve into two of the best breaking pitches in baseball. He has also improved his four-seam fastball, evidenced by a 64-point drop in opponent batting average and a similarly inspiring 68-point decrease in opponent wOBA.

 

What makes the former first-round pick so enticing is that he meets the hyperspecific requirements of what the Twins need and can realistically pursue. He would instantly surpass the "Bailey Ober Threshold," becoming one of the team's three best starters for a hypothetical playoff scenario. He would cost roughly $5-6 million the rest of the season (a price tag Twins ownership could realistically stomach) while not possessing payroll ramifications beyond this season. Already facing the strong possibility of needing to shed payroll this upcoming season, Twins ownership will not allow the front office to acquire an arm with multiple years of control. Flaherty fits that mold to a tee.

Admittedly, it is fun to speculate over hypothetical playoff scenarios. However, most of Flaherty's value resides in what he can offer the team now. Sitting four games behind the slumping Cleveland Guardians and tied with the presently surging Kansas City Royals, the Twins have reached a mid-season crossroads. López, Ryan, Ober, and Simeon Woods Richardson have done an admirable job guiding the Twins toward possessing the tenth-best rotation in baseball, according to Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR). However, the uninspiring trio of Chris Paddack, Louie Varland, and David Festa have left much to be desired out of the team's fifth and final rotation slot. Flaherty would provide an instant boost to an already above-average rotation and be a driving force toward creating what could be one of the most formidable and complete five-pitcher rotations in recent Twins memory.

 

Despite this being an intriguing proposition, significant drawbacks could spoil one's appetite for acquiring the divisional foe. Despite having a recent track record of dealing with one another (Sawyer Gipson-Long for Michael Fulmer in 2022), current Tigers President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris did not facilitate that trade, meaning the two team's present relationship is uncertain. Making an inner-division trade is plausible, and the idea of paying an "in-division tax" is largely a fallacy. However, acquiring "Flare" would demand parting ways with significant prospect capital, meaning those who follow the Twins could run the risk of having to watch a prospect like Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, or Gabriel Gonzalez perform well in the same division as the Twins for seasons to come. While this proposition is scary on the surface, acquiring Flaherty is a risk Twins decision-makers should be willing to make.

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[SF Twins Fan]

I'd be fine with Raya or Gonzalez.  The Twins rotation with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and SWR has four spots locked up for the next few seasons.  They can add Festa, Matthews, and Morris to that group who are all at AA or AAA.  The outfield includes Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Castro, Rodriguez, Keaschall and Walker.  Parting ways with either Raya or Gonzalez seems feasible. 

[Vanimal46]

Is there any cause for concern that Flaherty was a rental acquisition for Baltimore last year and struggled immensely? 

9 games 7 starts, 6.75 ERA 4.89 FIP in 34 innings. 

He played badly enough to not be in their playoff rotation. 

[Doctor Gast]

There is no guarantee that he can pitch that well for us or if he passes the Ober bar. He'll be gone next year so DET won't have to worry about him facing him regularly in the future. But some of the pieces we send there will be around to be a pain in our but. Our ex-prospects love to bite us, especially in DET.

Gonzales most definitely needs to be in any trade we make.

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Is there any cause for concern that Flaherty was a rental acquisition for Baltimore last year and struggled immensely? 

9 games 7 starts, 6.75 ERA 4.89 FIP in 34 innings. 

He played badly enough to not be in their playoff rotation. 

Certainly any pitcher could be an injury away or even have their production fall off the table. That said, here are some numbers to compare for his production at different points...

2023 with Saint Louis, prior to being traded to Baltimore...

20 games started, 7-6 record, 109 2/3 innings, 116 hits, 54 walks, 106 k's. That's 8.7 k's per 9, and at that point he had a 4.43 era, 4.20 fip and a 4.47 Xfip. Also, according to brooks baseball, his average fastball velocity from March through July 2023 was typically between 92.79 and 93.15 mph. 

So far in 2024...

17 games, 100 2/3 innings, 7-5 record with only 80 hits, 17 walks, 127 k's. That's 11.35 k's per 9, and he has a 3.13 era with a 3.15 fip and a 2.47 Xfip. And his fastball velocity has averaged between 93.92 and 94.09 for most of the year, which is about a mph faster than last year too.

Basically, this year he is walking way less, giving up way less hits, and is throwing harder. I'd feel a lot more confident that he can start a playoff game this year compared to his pre-trade production in 2023. 

Now, he could get hurt and revert back. Just saying, his numbers so far this year are night and day compared to 2023.

 

[gman]

I think having 4 reliable starters with 1 spot open for pitchers to "tryout" for a regular spot is a good position to be in. Your not going to use 5 starters in any kind of playoff scenario, so having an extra starter as a bullpen arm works out well. I wouldn't trade for a 5th starter while in a position to utilize guys available in the minors who would be looking for a regular in the next year or less.

[bean5302]

The first steps to Flaherty is looking at his results vs. expected and Stuff+, IMHO. It kind of cuts through a lot of the speculation on whether or not he's the same pitcher getting oddly different results.
ERA 4.99 -> 3.13
xERA 5.06 -> 2.95 (relies on batted ball data)
FIP 4.36 -> 3.15 
xFIP 4.36 -> 2.47 (normalized FIP for average HR rate)
SIERA ->4.53 -> 2.59 (relies on batted ball data)

His fastball is still league average 98 vs. 96
His changeup is dramatically better 68 -> 94
His knuckle curve is significantly better 93 -> 103
Location+ is slightly better 99 -> 104, and it's all based on fastball location.
His other pitches are rarely used.

Location and results
F-Strike% is up
Sw-Strike% is up
O-swing is up
O-contact is down

Flaherty's 4 seamer is moving a lot better this year with a little less vertical drop and finally a little horizontal movement, and the movement has come from active spin rate where Flaherty is getting his fastball to move in unison with the spin he's putting on it. From a Stuff+ standpoint, it doesn't grade any better. That said... The changeup is moving the same, but it grades way higher because it's being compared to the fastball and there's now more separation of the two pitches, and the same with the curve. The change to Flaherty's fastball has made both the curve and the changeup far more effective.

In bold are red flags for me. There aren't that many of them, but locating pitches and first pitch strike rates feel like a good/bad Liriano to me. It's tough for me to get on board with a veteran player really changing that consistently.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Our ex-prospects love to bite us, especially in DET.

Who? 

[tony&rodney]

Gonzalez for Flaherty, no more.

I don't actually believe Detroit will make a trade unless it very heavily favors them. They are still within reach of a playoff position.

[Wizard11]

Any starter we trade for at this point would likely get at most 11 regular season starts.  The hypothetical variability of impact on our season between Flaherty and Festa is probably at most +1 game.  
 

The predominant reason to trade for any starter now is for their ability to match up better in the post season than one of our current starters that they would displace.  The other logical reason would be to get a cost controlled starter for 2025 and beyond.  

There is no reason to trade for any starting pitcher unless they can meet one of these 2 criteria.  My .02

[Jocko87]

Quote

Already facing the strong possibility of needing to shed payroll this upcoming season, Twins ownership will not allow the front office to acquire an arm with multiple years of control. Flaherty fits that mold to a tee.

This is not in evidence, pure conjecture, your honor!

Unmentioned in the article is that he has the potential of a qualifying offer attached so the price will have to be higher than that. That means something like Keaschall would be the cost.  Too much for me but Raya and something else not in our top 10 might be interesting.

[madtowntwin]

Watched Flaherty pitch last night against the Guardians and Bibee last night...He went toe to toe striking out 6 with 3 walks and a nice pitch mix that kept Cleveland off balance and base. The Cleveland bullpen ended up being the difference. Their closer is on a whole different level with his control. I've been pushing for Cal Quantrill after watching him a few times including his performance against the Twins earlier this season. The Cleveland announcers even mentioned how Jack is tantalizing GMs at the deadline....Not sure if the Cardinals need another starter and that he may be more logical fit, but I was impressed. Minnesota is next on the road in Detroit - Hmmmmm.....Win Twins!

[LambchoP]

I'm sure there are lots of teams calling about Flaherty, meaning the cost will probably be higher than his true value. I'd love if we could get him for Gonzalez or Raya, anyone outside our top ten. But since half the league is looking for pitching, my guess is the price will be too high to pay. Kikuchi seems like a more reasonable target. I still say a good lefty for the bullpen needs to be our priority.

[Linus]

Because he can get the qualifying offer the return will have to exceed that value. That would be something like Keaschall or better. That’s a lot for 10 starts. 
The time to add a starter was last winter and the Twins made a mess of that. 

[Brandon]

On 7/24/2024 at 9:37 AM, gman said:

I think having 4 reliable starters with 1 spot open for pitchers to "tryout" for a regular spot is a good position to be in. Your not going to use 5 starters in any kind of playoff scenario, so having an extra starter as a bullpen arm works out well. I wouldn't trade for a 5th starter while in a position to utilize guys available in the minors who would be looking for a regular in the next year or less.

I would agree if we were rebuilding but we are trying to win the division still and we are currently behind 

[Brandon]

On 7/25/2024 at 9:30 PM, Brandon said:

I would agree if we were rebuilding but we are trying to win the division still and we are currently behind 

I wrote this earlier thinking our 6th  and 7th starters were Varland and Festa with nothing really available after that.  If Mathew’s is about ready for a shot and Dobnak is pitching well, I’m more ok with standing pat but still prefer getting a starter at the deadline.