Twins Top 20 Trade Value Series: 6-10

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have a solid core of big-league players who are helping the team win during the 2024 campaign. Would the front office trade from an area of strength to help other parts of the roster before the trade deadline?

Image courtesy of John Froschauer-USA TODAY Sports

Prospect lists can only tell you so much about an organization’s future. Players at every level will impact the Twins in the coming years, and it’s critical to take stock of the entire organization entering the trade deadline period. Below is a ranking of players based on current and future value when it comes to potential trades, factoring in age, years of team control, contracts, and performance. For the players who rank 11-20 in the organization, see Tuesday's piece. It doesn’t mean these players will be traded, but they have significant value as the trade deadline approaches.

10. Carlos Correa, SS
2024 Age: 29
Years of Team Control: 9
Correa is having one of the best seasons of his career, with a 151 OPS+. He was selected to the All-Star team for the first time for the Twins. He leads the team in both versions of WAR, and has showcased his skills on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, Correa was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis shortly before the All-Star break, and fans saw how it impacted his performance last season. He is playing like one of baseball’s best shortstops, which has tremendous value. His contract also has a no-trade clause, so he’s not being moved before the deadline, and arguably, that clause could slightly reduce the value Correa would command in any trade--but the structure of the back end of his deal is team-friendly enough to more than offset that ding.

9. Bailey Ober, SP
2024 Age: 28
Years of Team Control: 4
Ober averaged a 124 ERA+ over the last two seasons, as he established himself as a regular at the big-league level. He’s struggled through different parts of the 2024 season, with a 98 ERA+, making him essentially average. Since the beginning of June, he has posted a 3.14 ERA while holding opponents to a .661 OPS in seven starts. Ober has shown the ability to pitch like a playoff-caliber starter, and that’s what the Twins need him to prove in the season’s second half. Teams value controllable starting pitching, so Ober ranks highly on this list.

8. José Miranda, 1B/3B
2024 Age: 26
Years of Team Control: 5
Miranda might not have ranked anywhere in the team’s top 20 trade assets when the season began, because of how poorly he performed in 2023. Luckily for the Twins, Miranda’s struggles last season seem to have been tied to a shoulder injury. He’s been one of the team’s best hitters (148 OPS+) since being recalled earlier in the season, and had a case to be elected to the All-Star Game. Other players have seen their value drop since the season began, but Miranda has the highest-rising stock of any player in the organization. 

7. Joe Ryan, SP
2024 Age: 28
Years of Team Control: 4
Ryan has been Minnesota’s most consistent starting pitcher during the 2024 season, and had a solid case to make the All-Star team. He ranks seventh among AL pitchers in fWAR, and only three AL pitchers have accumulated more strikeouts than Ryan this season. Ryan will be arbitration-eligible for the first time next season, so it’s a good time for him to be putting it all together. Last season, he struggled in the second half while fighting through a groin injury. Minnesota needs him to continue to pitch at a high level, especially with questions about other parts of the rotation.

6. Pablo López, SP
2024 Age: 28
Years of Team Control: 4
López has not pitched like an ace this season, which is disappointing, after he established himself as one of baseball’s best pitchers last season. He ended the year on a high note with solid pitching performances in the playoffs, and many believed he’d contend for the 2024 AL Cy Young. His 3.43 xERA is much closer to what fans expected him to have this season. López will see a pay raise next season as his extension kicks in, so the Twins need him to start pitching closer to the level he maintained throughout 2023. 

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Do you agree with the above rankings? Who is ranked too high? Who is too low? Leave a comment to join the discussion, and come back tomorrow for the top five players in the organization, based on trade value.

Twins Trade Value Series: Nos. 11-20

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[tony&rodney]

I'm in the dark at to the value of Miranda for another team. The Twins will not trade Lopez, Ryan, and Ober under any conditions short of a total steal. Correa has a full 'no trade' and thus doesn't fit on this list. If a player cannot be traded or won't be traded, do they still have trade value?

Jenkins, Rodriguez, Lee, Festa, and Lewis have trade value and could be traded in the right deal. Of course, it would have to be a big transaction. Think Skubel.

[annismark]

by process of elimination, the top 5 are Lewis, Lee, Duran, Jenkins and Rodriguez? No Buxton or Jax in the top 20? Castro has less value than Martin (maybe because of team control)?

[bean5302]

Generally, future WAR x 8 - future salary = approximate surplus value.

Pablo Lopez is probably $80MM - $69MM = $11MM surplus. He's about to start earning that $22MM a year and he looks like a 3 WAR pitcher. Not a lot of excess value there.

[Karbo]

None of these are going to be traded at the deadline unless the team tanks before then. Even then, I don't see any of these traded.

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Correa has a full 'no trade' and thus doesn't fit on this list. If a player cannot be traded or won't be traded, do they still have trade value?

No, they do not.

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, annismark said:

No Buxton or Jax in the top 20?

Buxton has a no-trade so he doesn't belong on the list. Jax has a lot of trade value and definitely belongs on the list.

[LambchoP]

I think the only players we should be looking for to trade from the major league level would be Kepler, Margot, Farmer, Vasquez, Theilbar, Okert and Funderburk. Problem is, aside from Kepler, none of these guys have any real value. Meaning we would have to trade from our minor league talent and prospects. I'd say if we can package Julien with some other prospects like Festa or Raya to get a starting pitcher then we should do it. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

So, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Lewis, and Lee are four of the top five.  That leaves Jax, Duran, Festa, Castro, and Buxton as candidates for the last spot.  I guess maybe Festa as a prospect starting pitcher who is cheap with lots of control, but that seems pretty high.  Would you trade Ryan or Pablo for him?  I think not.  Buxton could be left off based on no-trade clauses, but you put Correa on the list, so. . . I'm not sure.  Jax, Duran, and Castro certainly belong on the list somewhere (even if it is lower on it), so it seems to me somebody needs to go to make room for a at least two or three players. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 minute ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

So, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Lewis, and Lee are four of the top five.  That leaves Jax, Duran, Festa, Castro, and Buxton as candidates for the last spot.  I guess maybe Festa as a prospect starting pitcher who is cheap with lots of control, but that seems pretty high.  Would you trade Ryan or Pablo for him?  I think not.  Buxton could be left off based on no-trade clauses, but you put Correa on the list, so. . . I'm not sure.  Jax, Duran, and Castro certainly belong on the list somewhere (even if it is lower on it), so it seems to me somebody needs to go to make room for a at least two or three players. 

Oops.  My bad.  You had Festa at #13, which I can support.  I'm still a little baffled though on the other omissions. 

[old nurse]

Of all of the players n the Twins 40 man roster and ranked somewhere prospects Correa would have the least trade value. A no trade clause would be a  Broras renegotiated contract where he has leverage.  A trade f Correa would likely include one of those ranked somewhere prospects for a return of  suspects 

[bean5302]

I wanted to point a little something out to folks on the NTC. No trade clauses aren't typically used to stick to their current team. They're typically used by players to negotiate contract extensions with the new team.

If players are being traded away, they're likely going from a non-competitive team to a winning team on a path to the playoffs, and that's a very desirable position to be in. If a NTC player's existing team is doing great, it's unlikely they're going to try and trade a player who was expensive/valuable enough to command an NTC in the first place.

Does a player with an NTC have trade value? Absolutely. If the Twins were to approach Byron Buxton about a trade to the Orioles, (where there is clearly a need) he'd replace Cedric Mullins, and the Orioles were willing to offer a new contract to Buxton's which would enhance his compensation, would Buxton block it? Keep in mind, Buxton's NTC ends after 2026, and you have to imagine the Twins are likely going to cut ties with him when it does.

1. Trading team doesn't want you.
2. New team is a likely World Series candidate.
3. Contract is improved.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

 Keep in mind, Buxton's NTC ends after 2026, and you have to imagine the Twins are likely going to cut ties with him when it does.

I doubt it.

BTW, Buxton's NTC becomes a "5 team trade list" after 2026.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I doubt it.

BTW, Buxton's NTC becomes a "5 team trade list" after 2026.

Buxton has 10 and 5 rights after 2026.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

1. Trading team doesn't want you.
2. New team is a likely World Series candidate.
3. Contract is improved.

Contract is improved = higher salary = lower trade value. Guys with NTC are typically going to return very little because they're being paid market value or will require they are paid market value as a condition of the trade.

[DJL44]

Jax at 10 instead of Correa

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I think the only players we should be looking for to trade from the major league level would be Kepler, Margot, Farmer, Vasquez, Theilbar, Okert and Funderburk. Problem is, aside from Kepler, none of these guys have any real value. Meaning we would have to trade from our minor league talent and prospects. I'd say if we can package Julien with some other prospects like Festa or Raya to get a starting pitcher then we should do it. 

I don't even think Kepler would bring back much in a trade at this point, certainly not any sort of impact player that would help us down the stretch. On this list, the only one I could see being traded would be Miranda, mostly because he doesn't have a truly set position, which make him the most expendable of the bunch, plus he currently has a lot of value. But I definitely can't see us trading any of our pitchers. 

[LambchoP]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

I don't even think Kepler would bring back much in a trade at this point, certainly not any sort of impact player that would help us down the stretch. On this list, the only one I could see being traded would be Miranda, mostly because he doesn't have a truly set position, which make him the most expendable of the bunch, plus he currently has a lot of value. But I definitely can't see us trading any of our pitchers. 

True, we'd most likely have to package Kepler with one or two other prospects. I just figured he'd be one of the most expendable since his contract is up and we have Wallner, Larnach, Castro, Martin, Keirsey, E-Rod....

[bean5302]

20 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I doubt it.

BTW, Buxton's NTC becomes a "5 team trade list" after 2026.

 

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Contract is improved = higher salary = lower trade value. Guys with NTC are typically going to return very little because they're being paid market value or will require they are paid market value as a condition of the trade.

Again, players vetoing trade proposals is rare. It has happened, like Eduardo Rodriguez, but it was pretty shocking to everybody when Rodriguez vetoed it.

In 2027, Buxton has a 5 team trade list, which means as part of his contract, he doesn't have 10-5 rights anymore. There are 5 teams the Twins can ship him to regardless of whether or not he likes it. Beyond that, Buxton is on a 2 year $30MM contract at that point. If Buxton has trade value, and he probably does have surplus value at 2 years and $30MM, the Twins are likely to move him.

Of course, this is all semantics as "likely" depends on a whole host of things.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Of course, this is all semantics as "likely" depends on a whole host of things.

It also means he doesn't have any trade value until 2027. I'm surprised the union let him negotiate away 10-5 rights.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

It also means he doesn't have any trade value until 2027. I'm surprised the union let him negotiate away 10-5 rights.

It came with a 7 year $105MM contract and a full NTC for 5 of those years. That contract was a landslide win for Buxton, and it came before Buxton even hit free agency.

I'm not sure why you're appear to be taking the position players don't ever waive their NTC. It happens all the time. Players also approve trades under 10-5 rules all the time. Most players aren't in the business of trying to screw their existing teams over. It doesn't look good for their next round of free agency.

Why would Buxton want to remain on a team that doesn't want him? Furthermore, what team who wasn't expecting to compete for a World Series, and didn't have significant payroll capacity would want Buxton? He'd obviously only attract interest from mid-market or large market teams who were competitive.

[Linus]

If Buck is healthy you want to keep him. If he is not healthy he won’t be in demand from other teams. 

[USAFChief]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It came with a 7 year $105MM contract and a full NTC for 5 of those years. That contract was a landslide win for Buxton, and it came before Buxton even hit free agency.

I'm not sure why you're appear to be taking the position players don't ever waive their NTC. It happens all the time. Players also approve trades under 10-5 rules all the time. Most players aren't in the business of trying to screw their existing teams over. It doesn't look good for their next round of free agency.

Why would Buxton want to remain on a team that doesn't want him? Furthermore, what team who wasn't expecting to compete for a World Series, and didn't have significant payroll capacity would want Buxton? He'd obviously only attract interest from mid-market or large market teams who were competitive.

The Twins aren't trading Buxton.

That's crazy talk. 

[Doctor Wu]

21 hours ago, LambchoP said:

True, we'd most likely have to package Kepler with one or two other prospects. I just figured he'd be one of the most expendable since his contract is up and we have Wallner, Larnach, Castro, Martin, Keirsey, E-Rod....

Yeah, he is definitely one of the most expendable players we have. But then again, if he gets hot down the stretch like he did last season, we may want to keep him around.