Twins Top 20 Trade Value Series: 6-10

Generally, future WAR x 8 - future salary = approximate surplus value.

Pablo Lopez is probably $80MM - $69MM = $11MM surplus. He's about to start earning that $22MM a year and he looks like a 3 WAR pitcher. Not a lot of excess value there.

None of these are going to be traded at the deadline unless the team tanks before then. Even then, I don't see any of these traded.

So, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Lewis, and Lee are four of the top five.  That leaves Jax, Duran, Festa, Castro, and Buxton as candidates for the last spot.  I guess maybe Festa as a prospect starting pitcher who is cheap with lots of control, but that seems pretty high.  Would you trade Ryan or Pablo for him?  I think not.  Buxton could be left off based on no-trade clauses, but you put Correa on the list, so. . . I'm not sure.  Jax, Duran, and Castro certainly belong on the list somewhere (even if it is lower on it), so it seems to me somebody needs to go to make room for a at least two or three players. 

1 minute ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

So, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Lewis, and Lee are four of the top five.  That leaves Jax, Duran, Festa, Castro, and Buxton as candidates for the last spot.  I guess maybe Festa as a prospect starting pitcher who is cheap with lots of control, but that seems pretty high.  Would you trade Ryan or Pablo for him?  I think not.  Buxton could be left off based on no-trade clauses, but you put Correa on the list, so. . . I'm not sure.  Jax, Duran, and Castro certainly belong on the list somewhere (even if it is lower on it), so it seems to me somebody needs to go to make room for a at least two or three players. 

Oops.  My bad.  You had Festa at #13, which I can support.  I'm still a little baffled though on the other omissions. 

I wanted to point a little something out to folks on the NTC. No trade clauses aren't typically used to stick to their current team. They're typically used by players to negotiate contract extensions with the new team.

If players are being traded away, they're likely going from a non-competitive team to a winning team on a path to the playoffs, and that's a very desirable position to be in. If a NTC player's existing team is doing great, it's unlikely they're going to try and trade a player who was expensive/valuable enough to command an NTC in the first place.

Does a player with an NTC have trade value? Absolutely. If the Twins were to approach Byron Buxton about a trade to the Orioles, (where there is clearly a need) he'd replace Cedric Mullins, and the Orioles were willing to offer a new contract to Buxton's which would enhance his compensation, would Buxton block it? Keep in mind, Buxton's NTC ends after 2026, and you have to imagine the Twins are likely going to cut ties with him when it does.

1. Trading team doesn't want you.
2. New team is a likely World Series candidate.
3. Contract is improved.

20 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I doubt it.

BTW, Buxton's NTC becomes a "5 team trade list" after 2026.

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Contract is improved = higher salary = lower trade value. Guys with NTC are typically going to return very little because they're being paid market value or will require they are paid market value as a condition of the trade.

Again, players vetoing trade proposals is rare. It has happened, like Eduardo Rodriguez, but it was pretty shocking to everybody when Rodriguez vetoed it.

In 2027, Buxton has a 5 team trade list, which means as part of his contract, he doesn't have 10-5 rights anymore. There are 5 teams the Twins can ship him to regardless of whether or not he likes it. Beyond that, Buxton is on a 2 year $30MM contract at that point. If Buxton has trade value, and he probably does have surplus value at 2 years and $30MM, the Twins are likely to move him.

Of course, this is all semantics as "likely" depends on a whole host of things.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

It also means he doesn't have any trade value until 2027. I'm surprised the union let him negotiate away 10-5 rights.

It came with a 7 year $105MM contract and a full NTC for 5 of those years. That contract was a landslide win for Buxton, and it came before Buxton even hit free agency.

I'm not sure why you're appear to be taking the position players don't ever waive their NTC. It happens all the time. Players also approve trades under 10-5 rules all the time. Most players aren't in the business of trying to screw their existing teams over. It doesn't look good for their next round of free agency.

Why would Buxton want to remain on a team that doesn't want him? Furthermore, what team who wasn't expecting to compete for a World Series, and didn't have significant payroll capacity would want Buxton? He'd obviously only attract interest from mid-market or large market teams who were competitive.