Minnesota Could Save a Blue Jays Starter

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Absence of Farmer - Kepler - Margot - Santana adds up to $24M less spending in ‘25.

 

True, but in addition to arbitration raises there will also be an extra $18.5 million due to Lopez and Paddack. A very rough guess on the arb raises adds somewhere near $15 million. Maybe the budget goes up, but it could go down too.

The only way the Twins add a decent starting pitcher is to trade someone that hurts. Who would people ask for if the Twins called suggesting a deal?

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I care about results, man. Not hype, and Pablo Lopez was hyped to the moon after his playoff results, just like 'ol buddy Captain Average, HoF'er Jack Morris. Now, Lopez is way better than Morris. There is only 1 season in Lopez's career where his ERA was lower 3.61, and it was a year where Lopez pitched only 102.2 innings. Lopez's ERAs have always trailed his FIPs, just like other 'ol buddy, Ricky Nolasco. When you see a major split between ERA and FIP for several years/career, it's not luck. It's a pattern. 

Side note, a 1.19 WHIP is mediocre. Lopez's WHIP (#41 of 73 qualified starters) is bracketed by household pitching studs like Matt Waldron 3.61 ERA/3.66 FIP and Brandon Pfaadt 4.19 ERA/3.78 FIP. Two Cy Young favorites for next year for sure.

Jack Morris pitched 30-40 years ago - not really sure what you’re rambling about with reference to him?

A few guys often discussed as interesting potential acquisitions here at TD:

Sonny Gray career WHIP 1.195

Seth Lugo career WHIP 1.15

Jack Flaherty career WHIP 1.185

Jesus Luzardo career WHIP 1.252

Nathan Eovaldi career WHIP 1.288

 

[Jocko87]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

"But I can’t point to a specific change in strategy. I think it’s more likely than not that the reality is that any impact from our TV deal, relative to our short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited. But that’ll ultimately be up to the market, and up to opportunities that Derek feels are good for the Twins."

-Dave St Peter

I'd say that's at least a little bit of a reason not to believe that ownership will be willing to open their pockets. Adding another 10% to the payroll by taking on another 13 million sounds like a very unlikely thing to happen. Same with 10 mil. Maybe they do 3-5 million?

When the owner says they're "right-sizing" their business it's probably safe to bet that they aren't hitting the same numbers they had in the previous seasons. 150 million wasn't the "right size" for their payroll so expecting them to go back to that number would be believing that Joe Pohlad was lying and pissing off his fan base for no reason. I think the safer bet is that they don't have a lot of wiggle room to add significant costs in the next 3 weeks.

I still think it makes sense that the limited investment has to be related to the trade deadline.  It makes a ton of sense to see how all the question marks turn out in the first half and target it.  I'm not so sure they feel like they desperately need another starter, they probably do want a bullpen that can be shut down for 5 innings though.  Personally, I want a lockdown lefty in the pen.  

A starter would be nice and likely be very expensive in prospect capital but not untenable.  A top 50ish prospect got Scherzer and 35m last year.  No telling what other organizations have an owner with a change of plans.  Two months of salary isn't the end of the world and would fit with the money we assume they have from the limited TV deal. 

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah. Andrew Albers was an ace for his first 2 games in 2013, too. If 2 or 3 game sample sizes were what determined whether or not a pitcher should be considered an ace, MLB would be overflowing with them.

Stop being ridiculous.

[MABB1959]

13 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Ok, I'll throw it back at you. What does the 2010 Twins have to do with this season? If you say more than nothing, I'll disagree with you.

Follow up, what does giving up our future here mean to you? I would imagine my view of "giving up the future" would be different than yours, comparing to what they would have to trade to acquire help at the deadline.

Wasn't thinking back to 2010 but since 2010 their playoff record is 0-7.  This season is 0-6 against NYY.  So far 0-3 against Baltimore

Future is Royce Lewis, Brooks lee or any prospect batting over .300.  Could be tempting to give up Miranda, Jeffers or Castro who seem to just be finding their stride.  

Again, if there was a chance of going past the ALCS it could be worth it.

[dxpavelka]

22 hours ago, DJL44 said:

We'll stop as soon as Woods-Richardson stops pitching well, which I hope is never. The key to a ROY season is putting it together for a whole season. We'll see if all the players you mentioned can sustain their success.

good luck with that working out.  Bottom line is, as well as Woods-Richardson has pitched he's done so through our jaded lens and he has ZERO shot at ROY.  Deal with it.

[dxpavelka]

21 hours ago, clone52 said:

Colton Cowser is hitting 0.221.  He had an INSANE April, but has been AWFUL since then.  0.580 OPS in May, 0.679 in June and 0.490 in July.  If he turns it around and finishes the year strong, he'll be a candidate.  If he continues his 2 month trend, he won't get votes.

Wyatt Langford is having a great year and improving.  Probably the leading candidate.

Spencer Horwitz is having a great year and if he keeps it up will be in the running.

Luis Gil is probably ahead of SWR right now, but its close.  He's actually the #2 favorite on one betting site, likely due to him playing for the Yankees.

I don't think SWR will win, but if he keeps this up all year, he'll be in the conversation.

 

 

 

 

Litmus test.  Are you prepared to give him the ball in Game 3 of the playoffs?

[Cory Engelhardt]

26 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Wasn't thinking back to 2010 but since 2010 their playoff record is 0-7.  This season is 0-6 against NYY.  So far 0-3 against Baltimore

Future is Royce Lewis, Brooks lee or any prospect batting over .300.  Could be tempting to give up Miranda, Jeffers or Castro who seem to just be finding their stride.  

Again, if there was a chance of going past the ALCS it could be worth it.

They aren’t going to trade mlb pieces. Teams that are selling generally always want prospects. They have prospects, quite a lot of them.

Glad you are able to see into the future. Do you have powerball numbers with that ability too? :) Especially with the Yankees winning 5 of their last 21 games as of today.
 

 

[JD-TWINS]

28 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Litmus test.  Are you prepared to give him the ball in Game 3 of the playoffs?

If he has a similar ERA in 10 weeks, it may be a good option. ……..still doesn’t mean he’s going to be ROY though.

[MABB1959]

34 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Glad you are able to see into the future. Do you have powerball numbers with that ability too? :) Especially with the Yankees winning 5 of their last 21 games as of today.

You don't need to be rude.  Everyone her is allowed an opinion

[laloesch]

4 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

You don't need to be rude.  Everyone her is allowed an opinion

That's debatable sometimes.

[Cory Engelhardt]

34 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

You don't need to be rude.  Everyone her is allowed an opinion

I was only responding to your assertion that the Twins have less than a zero chance of doing anything in the playoffs. I just can't prescribe to that defeatist mentality. As of right now they lead baseball in runs scored since April 22, and they have a LOT of prospects to trade to help their major league club make a push. That's what we should be wanting our team to do every time there is an opportunity to do so, no?

That doesn't guarantee success, obviously, as the playoffs are a crap shoot. That's the way it will always be. But the favorites rarely win it all year to year BECAUSE it's a crap shoot. So to say they have no chance is just not accurate. 

Have a great day!

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I still think it makes sense that the limited investment has to be related to the trade deadline.  It makes a ton of sense to see how all the question marks turn out in the first half and target it.  I'm not so sure they feel like they desperately need another starter, they probably do want a bullpen that can be shut down for 5 innings though.  Personally, I want a lockdown lefty in the pen.  

A starter would be nice and likely be very expensive in prospect capital but not untenable.  A top 50ish prospect got Scherzer and 35m last year.  No telling what other organizations have an owner with a change of plans.  Two months of salary isn't the end of the world and would fit with the money we assume they have from the limited TV deal. 

 

I'd also expect the pen to be the place they're most looking at upgrading. And likely a lefty arm. My point was simply that the other poster suggesting their real payroll number is 150 was ignoring what the top 3 people in the organization said all offseason. If 150 was the real number they definitely should not have saved 20 mil for the deadline. I wouldn't be surprised to see them add a little salary, but the other poster's suggestion that there's no reason to believe they wouldn't add another 13 mil seems to be ignoring what the organization spent all offseason telling us.

I don't see the Twins trading a top 100 guy this deadline. I think the payroll decrease is a more permanent thing (not that they won't add at all, but they won't be jumping back to 150 next year) and they are going to need their young guys to take a lot of spots now as Pablo gets more expensive and arb salaries start kicking in. I'd absolutely love to see the Pohlads sign off on a really aggressive move to try to make a big time run at things this year, but I don't think they ran the world's worst PR campaign all winter only to make a big splash at the deadline.

[clone52]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Litmus test.  Are you prepared to give him the ball in Game 3 of the playoffs?

Is that a requirement to win Rookie of the year?  He'd be the Twins #4 option this year.

I'm not saying he's in the lead, I'm just saying that he's worth talking about.  If he keeps up the same pace (big if), he'd be about 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.  His K/9 is low at 7.4.  His lack of wins would probably be the driving factor keeping him out.

Luis GIL is having a better year.  He might finish 16-8 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.  Much higher K/9 as well at 10.4.    He's one of the current favorites to win, but SWR is not that far behind him.

Pitchers rarely win ROY.  Michael Fullmer did in 2016 going 11-7 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 7.5 K/9.  deGrom won in 2014 going 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.2 K/9.  

As of today, I think he'd finish in the Top 10.

[chpettit19]

On 7/9/2024 at 2:09 PM, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I haven't the slightest idea but I wonder what their books would look like if they have the revenue from an extended playoff run, i.e., World Series appearance or 6-7 games into the ALCS, but also increase their payroll by 10% from August through the end of the season.

It absolutely would help to make a deep playoff run, but, according to Gleeman, the Twins attendance is down about 1200 per game so far this season. I can't imagine the business people were projecting 54000 fewer fans to this point in the season when calculating their budget before the season so they're likely already starting from a hole and probably aren't willing to bet on a deep playoff run when it comes to investing significantly more money into the payroll. But, generally speaking, a deep run would most certainly make it far more palatable to add to the payroll at the deadline.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

according to Gleeman, the Twins attendance is down about 1200 per game so far this season. I can't imagine the business people were projecting 54000 fewer fans to this point in the season when calculating their budget before the season

Their lack of TV coverage is killing attendance. Out of sight, out of mind.

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, clone52 said:

Is that a requirement to win Rookie of the year?  He'd be the Twins #4 option this year.

I'm not saying he's in the lead, I'm just saying that he's worth talking about.  If he keeps up the same pace (big if), he'd be about 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.  His K/9 is low at 7.4.  His lack of wins would probably be the driving factor keeping him out.

Luis GIL is having a better year.  He might finish 16-8 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.  Much higher K/9 as well at 10.4.    He's one of the current favorites to win, but SWR is not that far behind him.

Pitchers rarely win ROY.  Michael Fullmer did in 2016 going 11-7 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 7.5 K/9.  deGrom won in 2014 going 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.2 K/9.  

As of today, I think he'd finish in the Top 10.

not gonna happen

 

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Their lack of TV coverage is killing attendance. Out of sight, out of mind.

If only this situation was predictable...

[USAFChief]

12 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Their lack of TV coverage is killing attendance. Out of sight, out of mind.

Agreed. It's definitely a problem. 

Which is kind of ironic, considering back in the day, teams resisted putting home games on TV on the theory having those games freely available on TV would lower attendance. 

[SwainZag]

Realistically what do you guys think is the package that brings Kikuchi to Minnesota?  Expiring, Twins would be on the hook for ~4.1-4,5M left on his deal.  He makes a lot of sense to join this rotation.

[mnfireman]

For those of you still wanting Berrios:

After his start on 4/20:  5 GS, 4-0  W/L, 0.85 ERA, 27/9 K/BB, .205 BAA, 2 HR

Since: 15 GS, 4-7 W/L, 5.15 ERA, 60/24 K/BB, .259 BAA, 19 HR

He has regressed (and then some) to his career norms since the hot start - Toronto can keep him because he is what he is...

[GCTF]

28 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

For those of you still wanting Berrios:

After his start on 4/20:  5 GS, 4-0  W/L, 0.85 ERA, 27/9 K/BB, .205 BAA, 2 HR

Since: 15 GS, 4-7 W/L, 5.15 ERA, 60/24 K/BB, .259 BAA, 19 HR

He has regressed (and then some) to his career norms since the hot start - Toronto can keep him because he is what he is...

I watched his start last night. It was rough. 0 Ks and 0 swings and misses. Pulled after the fourth. They probably would've yanked him sooner but their starter only went four the previous game.