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    The Twins Don't Need a Full Rebuild. They Need a Direction.

    Minnesota has enough young talent to build around, but the organization has to decide whether it's actually trying to win in 2027.

    Cody Christie
    Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

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    After a third straight second-half collapse, there's a temptation to look at the 2026 Minnesota Twins and assume the organization needs to tear everything down. The record certainly makes that argument easier. Minnesota entered the final stretch of the season out of the playoff picture after buying at the trade deadline, and the club has spent much of the second half looking more like a team searching for answers than one preparing for October.

    But a bad season does not automatically create the need for a full rebuild. The Twins aren't starting from zero. In fact, the organization has some things that many rebuilding teams would love to have: young players already contributing at the major-league level, premium prospects moving toward the big leagues, established stars under team control, and a pitching staff that could look considerably different with better health. So, what's missing?

    There Is a Foundation

    Luke Keaschall, Taj Bradley, Brooks Lee, and Connor Prielipp have all given the Twins reasons to believe they can be meaningful pieces of the next competitive team. None of those players should be treated as a guaranteed star. That's not how young player development works, and Major League success is never guaranteed. But Minnesota has multiple young players who have already reached the big leagues and have room to develop.

    Then there is the next wave. Walker Jenkins remains one of the organization's premier prospects. Kaelen Culpepper has already seen early success in the majors. Emmanuel Rodriguez represents another high-upside player who could become an important part of the lineup.

    And the Twins still have two established players who can serve as the centerpieces of a competitive roster in Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton. Ryan's second half has complicated the picture, but his first-half performance showed why the Twins have viewed him as a potential top-of-the-rotation arm. Buxton's health is always going to be part of the conversation, but when healthy, he remains one of the most impactful players Minnesota can put on the field.

    The Twins don't need to find an entire core. They need to determine what they are doing with the core they already have.

    The Rotation Could Have Real Depth

    Pitching health has been one of the biggest variables surrounding this organization. Pablo López is expected to return from Tommy John surgery. Mick Abel should also be part of the pitching picture after recovering from arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow. Those additions could significantly change the depth chart.

    A theoretical 2027 rotation picture could include Ryan, Bradley, López, Dean Kremer, and Prielipp, with Zebby Matthews, Abel, Kendry Rojas, David Festa, Mike Paredes, Ryan Gallagher, Riley Quick, and Adrian Bohorquez providing additional options.

    That's a lot of names, but the Twins saw how quickly that depth can evaporate in one season. Obviously, not all of them will become reliable Major League starters. Some could end up in the bullpen. Others could struggle with injuries or development. A few may never establish themselves in the majors.

    But that's the point. The Twins have pitching depth to work with. They don't have to manufacture an entire rotation from scratch. They need to figure out which pitchers belong in the rotation, which belong in the bullpen, and where the organization needs to spend money to stabilize the group.

    The Bullpen Doesn't Need to Be Rebuilt Either

    The bullpen is another area where the Twins should be in better shape entering next season. Yoendrys Gómez, Jeff Hoffman, and Andrew Morris could form the foundation of the late-inning group. Kody Funderburk and Tommy Nance can fill middle-inning roles.

    That doesn't mean Minnesota should simply declare the bullpen finished. It should add a couple of veteran pieces if the opportunity presents itself. Relievers are volatile, and having too many legitimate options is rarely a problem.

    But this is a much different starting point than the beginning of 2026. The Twins entered this season with a bullpen that was one of baseball's worst and actively cost the team games. The organization eventually had to spend resources fixing a problem that should have been addressed before the season. Minnesota shouldn't repeat that mistake.

    The Real Question Is the Direction

    This is where everything gets complicated. The Twins can build a competitive roster in 2027. That doesn't mean they will. There is a massive difference between having enough talent to compete and operating like an organization that intends to compete.

    If Minnesota wants to win next season, the path is relatively straightforward. Keep the young core together. Get López and the other injured pitchers healthy. Give the young players legitimate opportunities. Add veteran pitching. Improve the bullpen. Address the holes in the lineup. Spend enough money to turn the roster's potential into actual Major League production. It won't guarantee a playoff berth. But it would represent a coherent plan. The alternative is another year of half-measures.

    If the Twins aren't going to meaningfully increase payroll, they need to acknowledge that reality. If they are going to prioritize development, they need to make difficult decisions about veterans blocking younger players. If they believe this group can compete, they need to actually invest in making that happen. What cannot happen again is building a roster that is simultaneously too expensive to be a developmental team and not good enough to be a legitimate contender. That is how organizations get stuck.

    Minnesota Doesn't Need to Start Over

    The easiest thing to do after a disappointing season is to declare everything broken. The Twins aren't there. They have young Major League players. They have premium prospects. They have established stars. They have pitching depth. They have a bullpen that should be more functional. They have players returning from significant injuries.

    There are legitimate questions throughout the roster, but every organization has those questions. The biggest question isn't whether Minnesota has enough talent to build something. It is whether the people making the decisions believe this group is worth building around. If the answer is yes, then 2027 needs to look like it.

    That means spending money, filling holes, protecting the young talent, and making decisions with the goal of winning games rather than simply maintaining flexibility. If the answer is no, then the Twins need to be honest about that, too. A rebuild is a strategy. So is contention. What Minnesota cannot afford is another season without choosing a direction.


    Do the Twins need a full rebuild? How can the Twins contend next season? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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    They had a clear direction last year at the trade deadline, which was hard to swallow but also celebrated by people like myself for that reason. But then the loser ownership group stepped in because they were afraid of losing money. 

    What are you basing your faith in this pitching staff on? Zebby has had a couple good starts but overall has looked terrible, and his FIP is even higher than the not good results. Festa and Abel are fun to dream on but neither has shown the ability to make it through a season and both have iffy major league track records in the innings they have thrown. Pablo is one of the easiest people in the world to root for and I am rooting for him, but guys often look shaky in their first year back from Tommy John surgery. Bradley and Ryan are the team aces, and I'm open to believing in both of them, but we've seen this year that they can't carry this pitching staff on their own. Kremer is okay and I have no problem with that trade, but he's a 4/5th starter. None of the prospects are concensus elite guys and none are clearly ready for the majors. The bullpen has some decent arms in it but lacks any real high upside weapons and is dangerously short on depth. In the bullpen the only guy I really trust is Morris, plus maybe Hoffman if he continues to age well.

    I'm open to your premise that they don't need to rebuild from scratch as an organization, but if they really want to compete they're a minimum of 4-5 playoff caliber arms short between the rotation and bullpen, and that's if you really believe in the prospects. 

    Edit: I posted this graphic elsewhere but am including it here too because I think it's useful. This is a table of the bullpen arms who threw a minimum of 20 IP this year and are currently Twins or were primarily Twins this season. I think this is valuable because I directionally agree it feels like the bullpen has gotten better, but I think that's us as fans accepting the impossibly low bar this team set on opening day. If we compare the guys we currently have to the league instead of comparing them to the even worse guys we used to have, I think it becomes more apparent why I'm concerned about the 2027 bullpen. 

    twins_bullpen_2026.png

    You can't just name young players whose names you're familiar with and say "we're good, we don't need to rebuild." To win, a team needs at least four or five very good (at least 4 WAR) players and several good players (2.5 to 4 WAR). It's questionable whether the Twins have even four or five players with the potential to become very good.

    If you think they do four or five players with the potential to become very good, then you're also counting on all of them to reach that level, even though odds are long that even one or two promising players ever reaches stardom and even fewer sustain it. You can look no farther than the last ten years of Twins prospects to see how unlikely stardom, much less sustained stardom, is.

    When you start by listing Brooks Lee as part of the foundation, you've definitely set your target at well below stardom. If you think Lee, Prielipp, Bradley, and Keaschall will sustain 4 WAR seasons, much less any one of them achieve that level, you're actually betraying how weak the future is for the Twins.

    Finally, the "If Minnesota wants to win next season. . ." strategy paragraph sounds almost identical to the strategy for this year. As they say, hope is not a strategy.

    Every year, after digesting the failure of the previous year, the optimistic drumbeat of "we don't need to rebuild" starts happening like a compulsion, and the end of the following season always shows how wrong that belief was. Well, it looks like here we go again.

     

    I really truly do not understand why Joe Ryan is listed ahead of Pablo Lopez for the theoretical 2027 rotation. Pablo has been the ace of the staff since he got here, and it's not like Ryan showed to be the ace throughout the year. 

    Frankly, as things look today, I'm closer to listing Ryan as 3rd behind Pablo and Bradley. I do hope Ryan can figure it out. That is, if they don't trade him this offseason.

    10 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

    You can't just name young players whose names you're familiar with and say "we're good, we don't need to rebuild." To win, a team needs at least four or five very good (at least 4 WAR) players and several good players (2.5 to 4 WAR). It's questionable whether the Twins have even four or five players with the potential to become very good.

    If you think they do four or five players with the potential to become very good, then you're also counting on all of them to reach that level, even though odds are long that even one or two promising players ever reaches stardom and even fewer sustain it. You can look no farther than the last ten years of Twins prospects to see how unlikely stardom, much less sustained stardom, is.

    When you start by listing Brooks Lee as part of the foundation, you've definitely set your target at well below stardom. If you think Lee, Prielipp, Bradley, and Keaschall will sustain 4 WAR seasons, much less any one of them achieve that level, you're actually betraying how weak the future is for the Twins.

    Finally, the "If Minnesota wants to win next season. . ." strategy paragraph sounds almost identical to the strategy for this year. As they say, hope is not a strategy.

    Every year, after digesting the failure of the previous year, the optimistic drumbeat of "we don't need to rebuild" starts happening like a compulsion, and the end of the following season always shows how wrong that belief was. Well, it looks like here we go again.

     

    So far this season, per fangraphs, Luke Keaschall (2.4) Taj bradley and Brooks Lee (2.3) and Connor Prielipp (1.6) all are well under 4 WAR.

    Baseball reference has Keaschall (1.6, but that's with 3.7 on offense and a negative number defense to get there) Bradley (3.9) Brooks Lee (2.3) and Prielipp (-0.2) WAR.

     

    I do think all of these guys can have been years with more experience. That's not crazy to say. But all of them have to if that is the bar.

    Buxton and Pablo getting back healthy, and Rodriguez and Jenkins and Culpepper being the leaders is a better path to getting back to the playoffs overall in my opinion anyway. Hopefully that works, as well as acquiring more talent both for the rotation and the bullpen and at least a couple of bats.

    It's not impossible, but more has to be added.

    15 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

    They had a clear direction last year at the trade deadline, which was hard to swallow but also celebrated by people like myself for that reason. But then the loser ownership group stepped in because they were afraid of losing money. 

    What was the direction they set, they 6 players on expiring contracts which is typical for the Twins and they traded three relievers.  Falvey had a history of sending away relievers before their contract year and did so again with Jax and Duran.  He felt he could build a bullpen on the fly.

    And even after they faltered in August, we saw no younger guys come up to see what they could do.  

    I don't understand this narrative of he was starting something, look at his history, he wouldn't call up younger players unless he had to instead opting to sign one year contracts on vets who had little or no upside.

     

    Realistically the Twins need at least three 2.5+ WAR players to be competitive.  I suggest at least one SP and two bats - perhaps 1B and a rotational OF either of which could play DH sporadically.  Likely none of these players is within the organization currently.  There are too many articles discussing finding “a guy” to play a position with little consideration of the needs of organizational depth in a long season.  The Twins will continue to flameout in August and September and wonder what happened if they continue to operate with barely having one guy per position and then throwing up their hands when normal injuries occur.  

    16 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

    So far this season, per fangraphs, Luke Keaschall (2.4) Taj bradley and Brooks Lee (2.3) and Connor Prielipp (1.6) all are well under 4 WAR.

    Baseball reference has Keaschall (1.6, but that's with 3.7 on offense and a negative number defense to get there) Bradley (3.9) Brooks Lee (2.3) and Prielipp (-0.2) WAR.

     

    I do think all of these guys can have been years with more experience. That's not crazy to say. But all of them have to if that is the bar.

    Buxton and Pablo getting back healthy, and Rodriguez and Jenkins and Culpepper being the leaders is a better path to getting back to the playoffs overall in my opinion anyway. Hopefully that works, as well as acquiring more talent both for the rotation and the bullpen and at least a couple of bats.

    It's not impossible, but more has to be added.

    BTW, as of now Cody Clemens currently sits at 2.6 on fangraphs.  He is our 1B next year.

    16 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

    And even after they faltered in August, we saw no younger guys come up to see what they could do.  

    They brought up their top 3 prospects (pre draft) - Jenkins, Culpepper and Rodriguez. 

    Joe Ryan does not intend to sign with the Twins.  He will not be a "centerpiece" of anything we do past next year.  Buxton continues to get older.

    The direction is to invest in a bright future.  Which, in practical terms, means subtracting from the present to amplify those odds and horde as many upside plays as possible to achieve it.  Call it what you want - rebuild, retool, whatever.  That's the direction.

    Let's just be clear one more time how royally we effed up this direction at the deadline - we missed out on assets for Ryan and Jeffers (and possibly Larnach and others) in order to pursue a playoff spot.  We now sit in the 9th best lottery position, tied with a bunch of teams that will slot somewhere between 5 and 10.  So, for perspective, we are much closer to another top 5 pick in the draft than we are the playoffs.  Despite stupidly buying at the deadline and losing asset value.

    We had a direction - add assets.  We should've continued that and instead we did the dumbest thing possible.  Twins Way.

    Just now, TheLeviathan said:

    Joe Ryan does not intend to sign with the Twins.  He will not be a "centerpiece" of anything we do past next year.  Buxton continues to get older.

    The direction is to invest in a bright future.  Which, in practical terms, means subtracting from the present to amplify those odds and horde as many upside plays as possible to achieve it.  Call it what you want - rebuild, retool, whatever.  That's the direction.

    Let's just be clear one more time how royally we effed up this direction at the deadline - we missed out on assets for Ryan and Jeffers (and possibly Larnach and others) in order to pursue a playoff spot.  We now sit in the 9th best lottery position, tied with a bunch of teams that will slot somewhere between 5 and 10.  So, for perspective, we are much closer to another top 5 pick in the draft than we are the playoffs.  Despite stupidly buying at the deadline and losing asset value.

    We had a direction - add assets.  We should've continued that and instead we did the dumbest thing possible.  Twins Way.

    I'm not at all mad with what they added. What they did trade away I don't think will come back to haunt them, and at the time I very much preferred them add to a bullpen that needed help. I certainly didn't think their offense would stop scoring runs.

    But I also agree, I would have very much been open to trading Ryan and Larnach at the deadline too, as well as trading some prospects for bullpen help. I wish that's what would have happened.

    2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

    I'm not at all mad with what they added. What they did trade away I don't think will come back to haunt them, and at the time I very much preferred them add to a bullpen that needed help. I certainly didn't think their offense would stop scoring runs.

    But I also agree, I would have very much been open to trading Ryan and Larnach at the deadline too, as well as trading some prospects for bullpen help. I wish that's what would have happened.

    I don't care about trading the players at this point.  I care about the lost value of Ryan, Jeffers, and Larnach.  It wasn't the cost of buying, it was the opportunity cost of not selling.

    Hell, Ryan should've moved last year in the big deadline blowout.  Lopez should've been gone last winter.

    3 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

    I don't care about trading the players at this point.  I care about the lost value of Ryan, Jeffers, and Larnach.  It wasn't the cost of buying, it was the opportunity cost of not selling.

    Hell, Ryan should've moved last year in the big deadline blowout.  Lopez should've been gone last winter.

    I agree on Ryan. I am hopeful they extend Lopez ongoing. 

    46 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

    I really truly do not understand why Joe Ryan is listed ahead of Pablo Lopez for the theoretical 2027 rotation. Pablo has been the ace of the staff since he got here, and it's not like Ryan showed to be the ace throughout the year. 

    Frankly, as things look today, I'm closer to listing Ryan as 3rd behind Pablo and Bradley. I do hope Ryan can figure it out. That is, if they don't trade him this offseason.

    Lopez will be coming back from his second UCL. Do you think he's going to be better than Gerrit Cole in his return from his first?

    5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    Bradley, Abel, Keaschall, and Roden until he got injured.

    Bradley was in his third year and was expected to be here.  Abel made two starts and Keaschall was only called up because Castro was traded.  Same as always, only call up the guys from AAA when they had no other option.  Roden they were only trying to justify the trade.

    Yes they are going to have to make some trades if they are going to improve the major league roster for 2027. Hitting on a couple of free agents would be helpful also. This idea that all we have to do is develop our homegrown talent is not going to put a winning team on the field or fans in the stands.

    11 minutes ago, Glorybound said:

    Yes they are going to have to make some trades if they are going to improve the major league roster for 2027. Hitting on a couple of free agents would be helpful also. This idea that all we have to do is develop our homegrown talent is not going to put a winning team on the field or fans in the stands.

    I can't imagine there is any front office in baseball who truly believes they can win solely with their internal prospects.

    1 hour ago, MeleMouth said:

    You can't just name young players whose names you're familiar with and say "we're good, we don't need to rebuild." To win, a team needs at least four or five very good (at least 4 WAR) players and several good players (2.5 to 4 WAR). It's questionable whether the Twins have even four or five players with the potential to become very good.

    If you think they do four or five players with the potential to become very good, then you're also counting on all of them to reach that level, even though odds are long that even one or two promising players ever reaches stardom and even fewer sustain it. You can look no farther than the last ten years of Twins prospects to see how unlikely stardom, much less sustained stardom, is.

    When you start by listing Brooks Lee as part of the foundation, you've definitely set your target at well below stardom. If you think Lee, Prielipp, Bradley, and Keaschall will sustain 4 WAR seasons, much less any one of them achieve that level, you're actually betraying how weak the future is for the Twins.

    Finally, the "If Minnesota wants to win next season. . ." strategy paragraph sounds almost identical to the strategy for this year. As they say, hope is not a strategy.

    Every year, after digesting the failure of the previous year, the optimistic drumbeat of "we don't need to rebuild" starts happening like a compulsion, and the end of the following season always shows how wrong that belief was. Well, it looks like here we go again.

     

    This is the 2nd post I’ve seen stating tha a winning team needs 4 to 5 4+ WAR players. Where are you getting that stat?  I can’t find any teams single team in 2026 with 4 players with 4 + WAR on FanGraphs. The Brewers, Braves, and Dodgers all have 3 players that will finish the season with over 4 WAR. The Rays have 2.  The Guardians have 1.  
     

    We need the talent we have to play to its potential. We need to hang on to our higher end starting pitchers, we need to add to the Bullpen, solve our situation at catcher and add a big bat at 1st Base.  If we do that I think we would be very competitive in 2027. 

    "But a bad season does not automatically create the need for a full rebuild." Agreed. But multiple bad seasons did, and the Twins f'ed it up by emphasizing a short-term PR boost by claiming they were trying this year and they'd play "meaningful games in September" over actually building a team that could play those meaningful games in some September.

    They've already started the rebuild. The problem was they never finished the rebuild. And now they can't because they have none of their best pieces to sell to finish the rebuild anymore.

    7 minutes ago, JCT66 said:

    This is the 2nd post I’ve seen stating tha a winning team needs 4 to 5 4+ WAR players. Where are you getting that stat?  I can’t find any teams single team in 2026 with 4 players with 4 + WAR on FanGraphs. The Brewers, Braves, and Dodgers all have 3 players that will finish the season with over 4 WAR. The Rays have 2.  The Guardians have 1.  
     

    We need the talent we have to play to its potential. We need to hang on to our higher end starting pitchers, we need to add to the Bullpen, solve our situation at catcher and add a big bat at 1st Base.  If we do that I think we would be very competitive in 2027. 

    I agree with everything you said, but I will add that Clemens is 2.6 WAR, hit 26 homeruns, led the league till the end of May in 1B defense.  I don't know why everyone leaves him out?

    What is the direction?  I don't have the answer, but we have half season Buxton and Ryan, Lopez and Festa have been away too long to count on them.  Abel - 4 games and 1.57 Whip and the articles sound like he was on his way to stardom.  

    Adams and Morris faded badly - are they real BP arms we can count on?  Gomez had a great year - is he a one year wonder?

    Larnach is replacement level, Lewis is a conundrum and has not given me any hope for the future.  Bell is gone, Jeffers is gone and we have Caratini!  Yikes.

    Tell me where direction and expectations meet. 

    10 minutes ago, Coach said:

    I agree with everything you said, but I will add that Clemens is 2.6 WAR, hit 26 homeruns, led the league till the end of May in 1B defense.  I don't know why everyone leaves him out?

    I agree with you on Clemens. But I  want Clemens playing 2nd base.  Sad to say, I think it’s time to move on from Royce and I want ownership to spend real money next season to bring in a big bat at first base. 




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