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Posted

The 2024 MLB Draft is only a few weeks away. Whom might the Twins focus on with the 21st overall pick? We dig in on five great options.

Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp

It’s time to get weird. We’re only a couple of weeks out from the 2024 MLB Draft, so we’re going to highlight some potential targets for the Twins at pick No. 21 overall.

This is a tough exercise at the best of times. This year, it might be impossible. After the first 10 picks, the first round promises to be an inscrutable mess. We could make an argument for many more players than we have time to cover. Let’s do our best, anyway. Instead of looking at these articles as predictive in any way, I’d rather folks view them as a talent barometer. Here’s an overview of the caliber of talent (and some of the names) the Twins might target at pick 21.

It should go without saying that there’s a cluster of names I’m going to assume are gone by the time we get to pick 21. If James Tibbs, Seaver King, or Cam Smith are still on the board, I’d expect them to be in play for the Twins. I regard that as unlikely, though. Here are some names they might consider at 21, listed in order of their current ranking on the MLB Draft Consensus Board.

Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State (15)
Benge played as a two-way player at Oklahoma State, but will be drafted as an outfielder. Benge has an exciting offensive toolkit, led by good bat speed that produces consistently high exit velocities. This is paired with a chase rate under 20% and a contact rate over 80%, a potent combination. The thorn in Benge's side in 2023 was a very high ground-ball rate that he'll need to clean up in order to properly leverage the rest of his offensive skills.

Benge has average speed, a plus arm, and an above-average glove that should lend itself to a really solid right-field profile defensively. It's been a strong 2024, offensively. Benge hit .335/.444/.665, with 18 home runs, 24 doubles, 49 walks and 51 strikeouts through 61 games. He's firmly a middle of the first round prospect, for me.

Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa (18)
Brecht is an exceptional athlete with an incredibly quick arm who has added some deception to his delivery by shortening his arm stroke in his time at Iowa. The stuff is "Skenesian," headlined by a fastball that averaged 97.5 mph in 2023. He cranks it up to 101, but it sits in the high 90s in games, with plenty of run.

Brecht's best secondary offering is a diabolical slider that he throws with two different shapes: one with more bite, and the other with more sweep. It has the potential to be a plus-plus pitch and generates a ton of whiffs. Brecht has also added a splitter, which is newer in his arsenal, and thrown a curve, although much less frequently than the FB/SL one-two punch.

Entering 2024, Brecht's Achilles heel was control and command, with consistent strike throwing having proven a challenge. He walked 61 in 77 innings in 2023 for the Hawkeyes, and there's significant reliever risk to the profile unless that improves in 2024. Brecht did reduce the number of free passes in 2024, going from 7.1 BB/9 to 5.6. It's tantalizing arm talent, but also feels like one of the widest potential ranges of outcomes of any first-round pick.

Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS, AR (20)
Caldwell was the Arkansas player of the year in 2023. At 5-foot-9 and 175 pounds, he's an undersized player who will naturally draw comparisons to Jett Williams, a first-round selection in 2022. While Caldwell is small, he's an explosive athlete. A sweet, quick left-handed swing generates sneaky-good bat speed, and he sprays line drives, able to find value in all parts of the ballpark.

Caldwell has fringe-average power, and while that is unlikely to transform into plus pop, he can hurt you a ton of different ways. A double-plus runner, he's a problem on the base paths. This is augmented by his discerning approach at the plate; he has a great eye and feel for the strike zone.

Defensively, he has the speed and athleticism to easily stick in center field as a pro, although a below-average throwing arm lessens the appeal slightly. At worst, he'll be a plus defender in left who gets on base a ton and steals plenty of bases.

There's a bit of a Corbin Carroll profile here, minus some of the power. Even so, it's plenty to get excited about for a drafting team.

Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State (25)
After back-to-back solid seasons for Sam Houston State, Walker Janek broke out in a major way in 2024 to strengthen an already interesting college catching demographic.

Simply put, Janek has a solid all-around profile in both his offensive and defensive game. At the plate, he has good bat speed and finds the barrel often. There's present pull-side power and good bat-to-ball skills. Although Janek does have a tendency to chase (especially against secondaries), there's a good shot that it's an above-average hit and average power tool when he's done developing, which would play well at catcher.

Defensively, he has one of the better arms in the catcher class, taking down a solid number of would-be base stealers with good pop and release times behind the plate. All the other prerequisites needed to be solid defensively are present. Janek moves laterally and blocks well, has solid ability to frame, and while his receiving needs some work, there's plenty to work with.

Janek put together a .364/.476/.709 line, with 17 home runs, 40 walks, and 45 strikeouts in 58 games in 2024, building on a solid Cape stint in 2023. Janek is my pick for the best catcher in the class. It's the strongest defensive profile, and there are above-average offensive tools across the board.

Theo Gillen, SS, Westlake HS, TX (28)
Gillen moved up draft boards after a loud 2024 season in which his offensive impact is beginning to match his enormous potential and athleticism. After returning from shoulder surgery in 2022, he's grown a ton, now standing 6-foot-3 and weighing 200 pounds. There might still be more in that frame, too.

At the plate, Gillen starts in an upright stance, with a bat tip straight behind his left shoulder. A small stride gets him moving forward into his compact left-handed swing. Gillen's offensive profile is underpinned by excellent bat-to-ball skills. While his profile used to feature more line drive power, he's begun to develop more home run juice, particularly to the pull side, with a frame that suggests that more in the tank.

Defensively, Gillen is a good mover, with a quick first step and smooth actions. He might move off shortstop as he continues to grow. Additionally, much will depend on his throwing arm, which has been the suspect body part in some of his injuries.

Gillen has shown plus speed, so there are plenty of defensive homes available (second base, or even center field). All of this likely won't matter too much, as Gillen has one of the best offensive profiles in the prep infield class.

Honorable Mentions: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford (22), Caleb Lomavita, C, Cal (26), Wyatt Sanford, SS, Independence HS, TX (33)


Who do you want to see the Twins take at 21st overall? Join the discussion with a comment below.


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Posted

I seriously wonder why MLB doesn't do a combine. Makes utterly no sense for a sport which is so dedicated to metrics at this point. Easy to set up the combine during the All Star Game week. It could be huge.

Posted
16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I seriously wonder why MLB doesn't do a combine. Makes utterly no sense for a sport which is so dedicated to metrics at this point. Easy to set up the combine during the All Star Game week. It could be huge.

There was a combine already, June 18-22. https://www.mlb.com/prospect-development-pipeline/events/mlb-draft-combine

Posted
11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Janek being 25 already (is that right?) is a big turn off for me. He'd be at least 27 before he came up. That's tough.

I'm all over the OFers in this list.

No he's still 21, turns 22 in September.  On the older end for a junior but still normal.  He's 25th on the consensus board.

Posted

My personal pref list of these guys would be Janek, Benge, Brecht, Caldwell, Gillen.

Maybe it's just the lack of high end catching prospects in the system since Jeffers, but I really like Janek's profile.

It seems like there's an industry consensus out to about pick 15ish, but then boards are kind of all over the place after that.  The Twins will have 4 day 1 picks, so I'll be more interested in how they can use all 4 vs pinning my hopes for any one guy or type at #21.

Posted
41 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

No he's still 21, turns 22 in September.  On the older end for a junior but still normal.  He's 25th on the consensus board.

hahahahaha. I knew I had that wrong. I'm all in on him then. I think my brain still hasn't fully recovered from doomscolling this morning. Sorry. I mean, seriously, where the F was my brain?

Catchers are SO HARD to find that if you find a good one, you have a huge advantage over your opponents. 

Posted

I still think it's the high school guys for me.  Gillen would be number one for me at 21.  It is the highest rated hit tool and it comes with power.  If he can play center he has up the middle value as well.  Caldwell would be right behind him for me.  The difference making speed, plus defense in center and plus bat make him super tough to pass up.

I do really like Janek and the Twins don't have much in the system for elite defenders there.  Janek's bat is rated average but looks plus based on this years stats to me.  He has power and the best arm.  If the hit tool is for real that would be a really, really good pick IMO.  If they went with Janek I wouldn't be that upset, but I do like the high school guys the best.

In honorable mention I really like Sanford.  A plus defensive shortstop whose hit tool seems to be on the rise.  It is the shades of Miller that give me pause, but I do like players with elite defense.  Saved runs matter too. I believe his contact rates are good, but it is concerns with the hit tool dropping him to the comp A round or below right now.

Lot's of different college bats they could take at 21 and possibly 33 as guys fall down the board.  No matter who they pick I just hope they work out really well. No busts please.

Posted

Brecht will likely be gone by 21 but he would be a great pick.  Any one of the top 3 catchers would also be a great pick. Beyond a P or C, a 5 tool OF or SS  athlete would be a great pick at both 21 and 33.

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

My personal pref list of these guys would be Janek, Benge, Brecht, Caldwell, Gillen.

Maybe it's just the lack of high end catching prospects in the system since Jeffers, but I really like Janek's profile.

It seems like there's an industry consensus out to about pick 15ish, but then boards are kind of all over the place after that.  The Twins will have 4 day 1 picks, so I'll be more interested in how they can use all 4 vs pinning my hopes for any one guy or type at #21.

I like Janek a lot too, although I have a theory Twins think they can get solid catching value down the board (which will be tested as they're linked to Moore and Lomavita too, at least by the draft media). I like a guy at catcher for the Twins named Ryan Campos, in the 150 range on the board.

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
55 minutes ago, Dman said:

I still think it's the high school guys for me.  Gillen would be number one for me at 21.  It is the highest rated hit tool and it comes with power.  If he can play center he has up the middle value as well.  Caldwell would be right behind him for me.  The difference making speed, plus defense in center and plus bat make him super tough to pass up.

I do really like Janek and the Twins don't have much in the system for elite defenders there.  Janek's bat is rated average but looks plus based on this years stats to me.  He has power and the best arm.  If the hit tool is for real that would be a really, really good pick IMO.  If they went with Janek I wouldn't be that upset, but I do like the high school guys the best.

In honorable mention I really like Sanford.  A plus defensive shortstop whose hit tool seems to be on the rise.  It is the shades of Miller that give me pause, but I do like players with elite defense.  Saved runs matter too. I believe his contact rates are good, but it is concerns with the hit tool dropping him to the comp A round or below right now.

Lot's of different college bats they could take at 21 and possibly 33 as guys fall down the board.  No matter who they pick I just hope they work out really well. No busts please.

Agree with all of that. Glad you mentioned Sanford. I like him too and I was kinda worried guys will just label him as Noah Miller. Sounds like his bat has come a long way this year.

Posted

Benge would be the best pure college bat at 21 I'd think and I bet the Twins would jump on him. But with that bat and good defense, I don't see him falling that far barring a surprising run on prep players.

Janek would be fine with me, but I really like Ryan Campos as well. Reminds me a little of a LH Jeffers, solid bat, needs defensive polish, and the Twins believe they can do that. Second or third round maybe??

Brecht scares the hell out of me. But we're talking a **** at a potentially elite arm at 21. That would be hard to pass up. Betting someone else feels the same way and he's not there.

I just can't shake the idea that Caldwell is a perfect of quality/slot as well as a need. Do Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Winoker stick in CF? Maybe. But Caldwell seems to be a true CF with potentially excellent defense, and the kind of offensive skillset to drive opponents crazy for years. I keep leaning toward him at 21.

Sanford with the comp pick? A pair of HS arms in the second? And then grab Campos in the 3rd? A lot of good looking prep arms through the first 60 picks or so and the Twins have the $ to play with some early numbers to make it happen.

After that, a mix of a few college position players and college arms for the remaining 17 rounds? 

Posted

We need a catcher!!! Vasquez/jeffers don’t impress me at all. This kid has power!!! That’s what we need!

Posted
16 hours ago, Dman said:

I still think it's the high school guys for me.  Gillen would be number one for me at 21.  It is the highest rated hit tool and it comes with power.  If he can play center he has up the middle value as well.  Caldwell would be right behind him for me.  The difference making speed, plus defense in center and plus bat make him super tough to pass up.

I do really like Janek and the Twins don't have much in the system for elite defenders there.  Janek's bat is rated average but looks plus based on this years stats to me.  He has power and the best arm.  If the hit tool is for real that would be a really, really good pick IMO.  If they went with Janek I wouldn't be that upset, but I do like the high school guys the best.

In honorable mention I really like Sanford.  A plus defensive shortstop whose hit tool seems to be on the rise.  It is the shades of Miller that give me pause, but I do like players with elite defense.  Saved runs matter too. I believe his contact rates are good, but it is concerns with the hit tool dropping him to the comp A round or below right now.

Lot's of different college bats they could take at 21 and possibly 33 as guys fall down the board.  No matter who they pick I just hope they work out really well. No busts please.

I like Janek a lot as well but that bat profiles as a below average to average as a major leaguer to me. With catchers I believe you’ve gotta look for the bat and the arm and then look if there’s potential to improve with the defense over 3 years of professional development. Jeffers I believe was the perfect catcher prospect as far as tools. Work the defense in. If the bat is not at least a 55 grade I’m iffy. I know Jeffers wasn’t the high end prospect at the time but that developmental path seemed the right one. Janek is on the cusp for me as a first round pick. Maybe if he’s there in the comp round yes.  I like the arm a lot but the bat just doesn’t do it for me at 21. These 1st round catchers are so hit and miss. I like Brecht if still on the board or the real intriguing reach for me would be Kash Mayfield. I know they don’t usually take pitchers in the first round but Brecht and Mayfield are 1 and 2 for me at 21.

Posted

I like the idea of grabbing a catcher with solid defensive skills AND can hit. After that, Twins need pitching, pitching, and more pitching.

Posted
1 hour ago, FargoFanMan said:

I like Janek a lot as well but that bat profiles as a below average to average as a major leaguer to me. With catchers I believe you’ve gotta look for the bat and the arm and then look if there’s potential to improve with the defense over 3 years of professional development. Jeffers I believe was the perfect catcher prospect as far as tools. Work the defense in. If the bat is not at least a 55 grade I’m iffy. I know Jeffers wasn’t the high end prospect at the time but that developmental path seemed the right one. Janek is on the cusp for me as a first round pick. Maybe if he’s there in the comp round yes.  I like the arm a lot but the bat just doesn’t do it for me at 21. These 1st round catchers are so hit and miss. I like Brecht if still on the board or the real intriguing reach for me would be Kash Mayfield. I know they don’t usually take pitchers in the first round but Brecht and Mayfield are 1 and 2 for me at 21.

I don't disagree.  The bat even with the great year he is having I have heard has holes.  The Twins have a lot of bat first catchers in the minors, but none of them other than currently Morales has done much with the bat past AA ( Camargo I guess).  We'll see if Olivar can change that or Maybe Cardenas figures AA out next year.  

Still most of the bat first catchers they have, have glaring enough defensive concerns (with the exception of Cardenas) that they likely wouldn't make the jump to MLB as a catcher. I agree though unless it is an all around skill set I wouldn't go catcher in the 1st round.

I am with you on Mayfield mainly because he is a lefty, but I still think I like the bats that are there better.

Brecht is a genius pick if he turns out even close to Skenes, but if he doesn't you might get nothing.  How do you feel about the Cavaco pick right now?  That is the risk you take with Brecht. I don't know if you remember the LaMonte Wade for Anderson pick?  The Twins were gonna fix his inability to throw strikes and they ended up bumping him off the 40 man.  I still don't think he can throw enough strikes to this day.  Not saying Brecht is the same but wild is hard to fix and or if the wild is fixed they become too hittable. He is young just started pitching he could get better, but the odds are against him.  Too risky for me despite the extremely high upside.

 

Posted
17 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I like Janek a lot too, although I have a theory Twins think they can get solid catching value down the board (which will be tested as they're linked to Moore and Lomavita too, at least by the draft media). I like a guy at catcher for the Twins named Ryan Campos, in the 150 range on the board.

Seems plausible, though I'm not sure it's really worked out as well as they might want to believe, if it is their strategy.

Jeffers was a big hit for them.  I'm not sure whether to call him a deep value pick or not.  They took him way higher than expected, but were there other teams that would have popped him in the 2nd or 3rd round?  They must have thought there might be.

For their later picks, Isola, Winkel, and Baez cannot control the running game.  I was excited about Cossetti's defensive improvements, but realistically he's still very iffy to be an MLB caliber catcher, though I want to believe he could still get there.  Chris Williams seems kind of similar; he's still getting catching reps but never really gained enough of confidence in his defense to be a prospect.  Cardenas is probably the only other catcher that this regime has drafted that I think could be realistically trusted to catch in the majors, and he's always been a pretty standard backup catcher profile from a mid round.

On the plus side, they don't have to hit that often to make it a decent strategy.  Just developing Jeffers is pretty good value.  And I'm not sure you could really say they've been drastically different that the previous regime or many other orgs.  Unlike the other up-the-middle positions, a catcher that can't hack it defensively typically doesn't have any defensive value elsewhere either, so I get not wanting to spend high picks on them.  There typically aren't too many catchers drafted super high anyway, so it's hard to say if they are really shying away from them as a group, or their board just isn't lining up with their picks.

The depth at the position this year does make it more interesting.  There are a few guys projected somewhere in the round 3-5 range that seem potentially Jeffers-ish.  Campos would be one, though more hit over power.

 

Posted
On 6/28/2024 at 1:08 PM, 2wins87 said:

No he's still 21, turns 22 in September.  On the older end for a junior but still normal.  He's 25th on the consensus board.

I'm intrigued by Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State (15). Quite the overachiever to be in college already at such a young age.  😀

Posted
8 hours ago, Dman said:

I don't disagree.  The bat even with the great year he is having I have heard has holes.  The Twins have a lot of bat first catchers in the minors, but none of them other than currently Morales has done much with the bat past AA ( Camargo I guess).  We'll see if Olivar can change that or Maybe Cardenas figures AA out next year.  

Still most of the bat first catchers they have, have glaring enough defensive concerns (with the exception of Cardenas) that they likely wouldn't make the jump to MLB as a catcher. I agree though unless it is an all around skill set I wouldn't go catcher in the 1st round.

I am with you on Mayfield mainly because he is a lefty, but I still think I like the bats that are there better.

Brecht is a genius pick if he turns out even close to Skenes, but if he doesn't you might get nothing.  How do you feel about the Cavaco pick right now?  That is the risk you take with Brecht. I don't know if you remember the LaMonte Wade for Anderson pick?  The Twins were gonna fix his inability to throw strikes and they ended up bumping him off the 40 man.  I still don't think he can throw enough strikes to this day.  Not saying Brecht is the same but wild is hard to fix and or if the wild is fixed they become too hittable. He is young just started pitching he could get better, but the odds are against him.  Too risky for me despite the extremely high upside.

 

Yeah, I just feel that unless a catcher is a slam dunk pick they are almost as much of a wildcard as a pitcher. I think you gotta take a few every year in the later rounds that have some upside and roll the dice. As far as Brecht I think he has the stuff but that’s not really the twins way. They like tall projectable pitchers and add velocity as they come up. A guy that has that already and is a bit wild isn’t really their traditional pick. But as far as taking the highest upside with a pick if he’s there he’s that guy! As far as Cavaco I remember hating that pick and thought they squandered a top 15 pick that draft. Hopefully he finds it as a pitcher but he was kinda the flavor of the month. A bit like Jeffers was but that’s the mlb draft for ya!

Posted
8 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Seems plausible, though I'm not sure it's really worked out as well as they might want to believe, if it is their strategy.

Jeffers was a big hit for them.  I'm not sure whether to call him a deep value pick or not.  They took him way higher than expected, but were there other teams that would have popped him in the 2nd or 3rd round?  They must have thought there might be.

For their later picks, Isola, Winkel, and Baez cannot control the running game.  I was excited about Cossetti's defensive improvements, but realistically he's still very iffy to be an MLB caliber catcher, though I want to believe he could still get there.  Chris Williams seems kind of similar; he's still getting catching reps but never really gained enough of confidence in his defense to be a prospect.  Cardenas is probably the only other catcher that this regime has drafted that I think could be realistically trusted to catch in the majors, and he's always been a pretty standard backup catcher profile from a mid round.

On the plus side, they don't have to hit that often to make it a decent strategy.  Just developing Jeffers is pretty good value.  And I'm not sure you could really say they've been drastically different that the previous regime or many other orgs.  Unlike the other up-the-middle positions, a catcher that can't hack it defensively typically doesn't have any defensive value elsewhere either, so I get not wanting to spend high picks on them.  There typically aren't too many catchers drafted super high anyway, so it's hard to say if they are really shying away from them as a group, or their board just isn't lining up with their picks.

The depth at the position this year does make it more interesting.  There are a few guys projected somewhere in the round 3-5 range that seem potentially Jeffers-ish.  Campos would be one, though more hit over power.

 

Just want to say that while disappointed in both Cardenas and Cosetti this season, I think Cardenas has a good eye and a good approach, so I still have some hope there. AA is a big jump, of course, but Cosetti's bat looked SO GOOD last season that I'm not giving up on him yet either.

Crossing fingers for both.

Baez has really grabbed my attention when he was drafted because he's a really good athlete who played all over in college and wasn't a full time catcher until his last year. The bat looks promising. Similar to Jeffers, I like the idea of developing the catching skills for a bat first catcher, IF the basic skills are there to work with. That's also why I like the idea that JC has tossed out with the Twins grabbing someone like Ryan Campos past the first couple of rounds.

Interesting about Williams that his bat has suddenly disappeared this season, but in an interview Seth did with the Saints play by play guy...sorry, I can't recall his name right now...he spoke about how hard Williams has worked on his defense to be a legit option behind the plate. I'm sure Camargo is ahead of him, but I have to wonder about any improvements he's made behind the dish, and what would happen if the bat suddenly came back again?

Assuming no injuries happen, I'd be really happy if Camargo was added in September and allowed to actually PLAY over that month to see what he's got.

Posted
14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Just want to say that while disappointed in both Cardenas and Cosetti this season, I think Cardenas has a good eye and a good approach, so I still have some hope there. AA is a big jump, of course, but Cosetti's bat looked SO GOOD last season that I'm not giving up on him yet either.

Crossing fingers for both.

Baez has really grabbed my attention when he was drafted because he's a really good athlete who played all over in college and wasn't a full time catcher until his last year. The bat looks promising. Similar to Jeffers, I like the idea of developing the catching skills for a bat first catcher, IF the basic skills are there to work with. That's also why I like the idea that JC has tossed out with the Twins grabbing someone like Ryan Campos past the first couple of rounds.

Interesting about Williams that his bat has suddenly disappeared this season, but in an interview Seth did with the Saints play by play guy...sorry, I can't recall his name right now...he spoke about how hard Williams has worked on his defense to be a legit option behind the plate. I'm sure Camargo is ahead of him, but I have to wonder about any improvements he's made behind the dish, and what would happen if the bat suddenly came back again?

Assuming no injuries happen, I'd be really happy if Camargo was added in September and allowed to actually PLAY over that month to see what he's got.

Yeah, they have a lot of interesting bats who are catching, but I'm a lot more skeptical on the defensive side for most of them, Cardenas and Camargo being the main exceptions.

Baez, as an example, has thrown out 4 of 75 base stealers in his time in the low minors. Even with modest improvements that's such a low starting point that I don't have a ton of confidence that he'll get to the point that it wouldn't be a problem in the majors.

I think the early success with Jeffers made it seem easier than it actually is. Partly, much of Jeffers' early improvements were on the framing side, which was low-hanging fruit at the time but the threshold for average is much higher now. Tanner Swanson was also poached by the Yankees, though I think they have a lot of good coaches so I don't actually think that is a huge impact. I also think Jeffers might just be an exceptionally coachable guy, which seems hard to scout, but he's managed to make a lot of improvements on different aspects of his defense over the years. I'm sure every prospect works hard for the most part, but being able to translate drills, etc into actual physical skills is itself a skill that varies quite a bit among athletes.

I get the strategy of looking for bats and improving the defense. But I also think it's a good idea to look for a higher defensive starting baseline at times, in part because guys that already have a lot of good skills at a position like catcher have generally proven to have a strong ability to turn coaching into skills.

 

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