Two Twins Needing Big Second Half Turnarounds

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have eyes on the postseason and if they are going to make it there, then having the most productive versions of their best players is a must. There is currently a pair of pitchers that need to generate some positive momentum.

 

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

With just a couple of weeks left until the All-Star Break, Rocco Baldelli’s club is quickly approaching the halfway point of the major league season. On pace to put up a solid result in the wins column, they will need to push for a bit more consistency and just a bit better results if they are going to chase down the Cleveland Guardians.

Achieving those results will rely on both Pablo Lopez and Jhoan Duran settling into a greater level of production during the second half.

Pablo Lopez
A potential Cy Young candidate when the season started, Lopez has looked like a shell of the pitcher he was during his first season in Minnesota. Extended after being acquired for Luis Arraez, it was clear that the Twins believed they found an arm that still had room to grow. It’s hard to argue against that with the 2023 results, but 2024 has been all about what should happen.

Lopez has produced promising advanced metrics, but came into his 16th start of the season with a 5.63 ERA and 1.250 WHIP. Neither of those numbers are good, and they are reflective of actual results. However, making some mechanical tweaks prior to his Sunday start against the Oakland Athletics, Lopez tied a career-high with 14 strikeouts over eight shutout innings while allowing just two hits.

It is worth being cautious as to whether Lopez actually found something, or he was just experiencing the benefit of pitching against one of baseball’s worst teams. Still, it was the first time in June that he had gone deeper than five innings, and he looked every bit the dominant star that Minnesota is relying on him to be.

Velocity has been a bit all over the place for Lopez this year, but there should be no more cold starts, and using an outing like the one against Oakland to springboard success would be great to see. The Twins postseason hopes rely on Lopez looking like a star, and Joe Ryan combining with Bailey Ober to pitch well alongside him. The ace of the staff needs to get the ball rolling, and we’ve seen him do it before.

Jhoan Duran
If Lopez is the ace of the staff, then it’s the man with the greatest entrance in baseball that is the ace of the bullpen. Or, at least he’s supposed to be. Duran began the year on the injured list and missed the first 28 games with a strained oblique. He came back to what was expected as a contender for one of baseball’s best bullpens, but he’s hardly looked like himself.

The velocity is down, the strikeouts are down, the whiff rates are down, and the results aren’t great. Through his first 24 appearances Duran owns a 3.91 ERA with an even worse 5.01 FIP. He is striking out just 8.2 batters per nine innings, and his 1.6 HR/9 is almost double his career average. Velocity is the name of his game, and he’s lacking miles per hour on both the fastball and splinker. Relying on the curveball has hurt him at times, and Baldelli has been forced to seek answers.

Thankfully for Duran and the Twins, Griffin Jax has been one of baseball’s best relievers in 2024. On Sunday against the Athletics, it was Jax who closed out a 3-0 game, not Duran, who allowed his first blown save on a Shea Langeliers home run Friday. On the flip side, regardless of who is recording the save, Minnesota’s bullpen is at its best when both of the top high-leverage options are going good.

Brock Stewart has been on the injured list since early May with shoulder tendinitis, and it’s possible that Duran’s oblique injury from the spring is still nagging him. Whether the Twins need to get their closer a bit of a breather or not remains to be seen, but figuring out a way for him to be the best version of himself down the stretch is a must.

To what level Lopez and Duran can produce the rest of the way remains to be seen. The Twins need both to see optimal results however, and continuing to work towards ways to make that happen should be among the top priorities for all involved.

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[DJL44]

Correct. They need an ace starter and a shutdown reliever and this is the easiest way to get both of them.

[Pykkman]

Add Buxton to the list.  Would be exciting to have all three of them at the top of their game for the playoffs.  

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Correct. They need an ace starter and a shutdown reliever and this is the easiest way to get both of them.

The easiest way to get an ace is to find Johan Santana and get him to unretire. He's probably fine to pitch. Who needs a left shoulder anyway? I saw Rick Aguilera in an interview recently. Looks like he probably body shames guys at Gold's Gym. Man that guy is in great shape. Probably ready to go.

[mikelink45]

You are right and I do not know what else to say.  But Paddock reaching his wall means that we need SWR to continue to produce and hopefully Festa or someone else will be able to pick up the rotation in the 5 spot. 

[Karbo]

I'm a bit concerned about Duran. Losing as much velo as he has is a big warning sign. Is he still hurting but not telling the training staff, or does he need more build up time? Idk but they should be trying to figure it out and soon!

[thelanges5]

Need 2nd half Kepler to show up again as well. 

[Woipadinga80]

6 hours ago, Pykkman said:

Add Buxton to the list.  Would be exciting to have all three of them at the top of their game for the playoffs.  

Not sure who you've been watching but Buxton has been on fire lately 

[Doctor Gast]

14 hours ago, Woipadinga80 said:

Not sure who you've been watching but Buxton has been on fire lately 

Lopez last 4 games & 5 out of the last 6 games has been good to great. Duran velo has been down, so he has to learn how to be a pitcher, IMO his velo will return but in the mean time we may need to depend more on Jax & Alcala.

[LambchoP]

Duran may need an IL stint, but hopefully he'll be back to form soon. Luckily both Alcala and Jax have pitched like all stars. Staumonts been good too. If we get Stewart back soon and pick up a leverage lefty at the deadline we should be ok. Duran, Jax, Stewart, Alcala, Staumonts, maybe Varland and a new lefty looks like a good bullpen. Theilbar needs to go, and wouldn't trust Funderburk in any close game.

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, Pykkman said:

Add Buxton to the list.  Would be exciting to have all three of them at the top of their game for the playoffs.  

As of Sunday a.m. the 30th…….Buxton hitting .364 over last 17 games with 5 HR and 1.100 OPS …….he’s been pretty good for 3 weeks….keep the truck rolling!

[JD-TWINS]

17 hours ago, Woipadinga80 said:

Not sure who you've been watching but Buxton has been on fire lately 

1.100 OPS over last 17 games!!!

[JD-TWINS]

I don’t think Duran at 100.3 or whatever is a big problem. His breaking stuff being located better has been his issue along with throwing too much breaking stuff.

100.3 fastball - 96 splinker - 85 curve would all be down 3 MPH from his norm or typical high end self, but still awfully good!!! He can get plenty of guys out with his current velocity - just needs to not throw hanging stuff in the middle of the plate. I never see guys squaring up his fastball.

Pablo seems to be in his own head at times ……ahead continually on Saturday night v. Seattle but constantly NOT throwing his fastball in the zone, but rather an inch or three off the plate. Get ahead and then after 3 fastballs just off the plate he’s in a 3-2 battle with most batters - no efficiency! Trying to be perfect and pitching away from contact at every turn - this rolls into way too many pitches thrown. He stabilized and got the last 10 guys in a row - but again, like in Oakland, not facing murderers row.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lopez last 4 games & 5 out of the last 6 games has been good to great. Duran velo has been down, so he has to learn how to be a pitcher, IMO his velo will return but in the mean time we may need to depend more on Jax & Alcala.

Lopez's last games have been pretty inconsistent. He needs to be better to justify the position the Twins were expecting him to fill.
1) Great
2) Great
3) Awful
4) Acceptable
5) Awful
6) Great
7) Awful
8) Awful
9) Poor
10) Great
 

[joefish]

Correa staying hot and healthy is a big plus. Lewis ending his ( whatever it is) will help. Everybody stepping it up a notch will help. We look good when we play well. The pieces are there. 

[JD-TWINS]

21 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Lopez's last games have been pretty inconsistent. He needs to be better to justify the position the Twins were expecting him to fill.
1) Great
2) Great
3) Awful
4) Acceptable
5) Awful
6) Great
7) Awful
8) Awful
9) Poor
10) Great
 

Last two outings he’s given up a solo homer in 14 innings with 23 K’s. Worked out of a couple jams but was then dominant again…….not the 2 best line-ups in baseball but a nice step in right direction……ERA from 5.63 down to 4.88 over 2 starts. Down around 4.00 by end of August and things are going well!!

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Last two outings he’s given up a solo homer in 14 innings with 23 K’s. Worked out of a couple jams but was then dominant again…….not the 2 best line-ups in baseball but a nice step in right direction……ERA from 5.63 down to 4.88 over 2 starts. Down around 4.00 by end of August and things are going well!!

I was talking about his last few starts overall. Not in regard to whether he was consistently great during the game. It's expected a pitcher will run into at least a little trouble during a game no matter how good they are.