Royals 6, Twins 1: Royals Rock Ober, Again

[Ted Schwerzler]

Against 28 of the 29 other teams in MLB, Minnesota Twins starter Bailey Ober is one of the most consistent, solid hurlers in baseball. Against the Kansas City Royals, it's a whole different story. Wednesday night was the latest sad chapter in that story.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober 5.0 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (82 pitches, 61 strikes, 15 whiffs)
Home Runs: N/A
Bottom 3 WPA: Bailey Ober -0.349, Edouard Julien -0.078, Carlos Correa -0.065

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Miranda Strikes, but Ober Gets Royal’d
After posing a two-out threat against Seth Lugo in the first inning, the Twins finished the frame scoreless. Following a Willi Castro double in the second inning, Carlos Santana singled to put him just 90 feet from home. José Miranda then lofted a sacrifice fly to put the Twins on the board and up 1-0.

Including (but not limited to) his start against them in the opening series of the season, Ober has proved unable to keep the Royals offense down. For whatever reason, they absolutely have him figured out, and Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are especially lethal against him. Kyle Isbel singled to open the third inning; Witt later scored him from second base on a single of his own. Perez then traded places with the talented shortstop, and the Twins were down 2-1. By getting Adam Frazier to fly out, Ober nearly escaped a big inning, but Nelson Velázquez took him deep and the two-run dinger made it a 4-1 game.

As they have done following an opposing outburst far too often, the Twins went down in order during the bottom of the third inning. Continuing to terrorize the Minnesota starter, Perez got him again in the fifth inning, this time for a solo home run to make it a 5-1 game. Velázquez got him for the second time in the game thereafter, widening the Kansas City lead to 6-1.

Twins Can’t Touch Lugo
Despite getting the first run early, the Minnesota Twins had no answers for Major League Baseball’s ERA leader. While some of his secondary numbers suggest likely regression, it wasn’t happening at Target Field on Wednesday night. Although Seth Lugo struck out just five, while walking three, he worked around six hits and multiple frames of traffic. Throwing 100 pitches across six innings, Lugo held Minnesota to 1-for-6 with runners in scoring position and stranded eight.

After having warmed up a couple of times previously, Diego Castillo made his Minnesota debut tonight. Working a pair of scoreless innings, he walked a batter and didn’t strike anyone out. All in all, it was a fine opening salvo. Miranda singled and Manuel Margot walked to open the ninth inning, but neither advanced beyond those bases, and the Twins took a 6-1 loss. Castro went 3-for-4 with a run scored and the only extra-base hit in the loss.

Notes
Walker Jenkins had a day off with no FCL action while Brooks Lee batted second and was the Fort Myers designated hitter. Lee went 2-for-4 on the night. Royce Lewis also got an off day for the St. Paul Saints but is expected to play tomorrow in Rochester.

Former Twins reliever Jorge López, the one they traded Cade Povich and Yennier Canó to Baltimore for, had quite the night. First he sent his glove flying into the stands following an ejection, then he doubled down in his postgame comments. He will be DFA’d, so guess he doesn’t have to worry about his employer anymore.

What’s Next? 
Wrapping up the four-game set with the Kansas City Royals, Chris Paddack goes for the Twins looking to turn in another good start. He’ll be opposed by Brady Singer. The Twins need to grab the victory in order to walk away with the series before heading to Houston.

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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[OvertheHill]

You could almost predict that. KC has Obers number, and the Twins were due to bring their disinterested plate approach. Nice to see and appreciate Correa in person. He’s just so solid out there fielding, positioning, throwing, etc. Easy to take for granted when you can only follow the games online or on the radio. 

[h2oface]

18 minutes ago, OvertheHill said:

You could almost predict that. KC has Obers number, and the Twins were due to bring their disinterested plate approach. Nice to see and appreciate Correa in person. He’s just so solid out there fielding, positioning, throwing, etc. Easy to take for granted when you can only follow the games online or on the radio. 

Wow. This is the MLB. No professional should ever have a disinterested plate approach. And this fan will never accept that approach. Ever. If management does, we need a new front office team.

People dissed Arraez for his defense and defensive rating. But Correa is now rated below average, also, by the same ratings. Do you believe them? I don't.

[Alex Wilde]

Hindsight is always 20/20, but that trade for Lopez will always look really odd. You gave up 4 prospects for a reliever who had had half of a season of success under his belt. No one saw Cano doing what he did, but Povich looks like a solid #3 SP right now at AAA and that’s without mentioning either of the young fliers who were also thrown into the trade. Huge overpay at the time and it looks more awful every day.

[h2oface]

Bailey Ober doing his Pablo Day Lopez 2024 impression again. How many meatballs can a pitcher serve up in 5 innings? Baldelli doesn't let Kepler, or other lefties get same side at bats. Maybe he should just not pitch Ober against a team the consistently owns him? Best chance of winning and all......

Man, that video of Jorge Lopez is sad. No wonder Baltimore wanted to trade him. What a cancer. 

"No one saw Cano doing what he did, " This is just not true. Some did, and the FO did and hoped for it, and bet on it for quite a few appearances. They just gave up on him and got hosed. It was really a bad move, and many didn't like it in real time, not just 20/20 hindsight.

 

[hitterscount]

Lose tomorrow and it is basically a lost series. Cannot make up ground playing.500 baseball… the way Cleveland is playing they will need to do win these type of series to be a wild card team. It appears Cleveland is the best team in this division. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

Wow. This is the MLB. No professional should ever have a disinterested plate approach. And this fan will never accept that approach. Ever. If management does, we need a new front office team.

People dissed Arraez for his defense and defensive rating. But Correa is now rated below average, also, by the same ratings. Do you believe them? I don't.

Me either.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, hitterscount said:

Lose tomorrow and it is basically a lost series. Cannot make up ground playing.500 baseball… the way Cleveland is playing they will need to do win these type of series to be a wild card team. It appears Cleveland is the best team in this division. 

Right now CLE is the best team.  They wont continue to play .667 ball.  Just need to hang close without Lewis.

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, Alex Wilde said:

Hindsight is always 20/20, but that trade for Lopez will always look really odd. You gave up 4 prospects for a reliever who had had half of a season of success under his belt. No one saw Cano doing what he did, but Povich looks like a solid #3 SP right now at AAA and that’s without mentioning either of the young fliers who were also thrown into the trade. Huge overpay at the time and it looks more awful every day.

This. Spot on!

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, h2oface said:

Man, that video of Jorge Lopez is sad. No wonder Baltimore wanted to trade him. What a cancer. 

"No one saw Cano doing what he did, " This is just not true. Some did, and the FO did and hoped for it, and bet on it for quite a few appearances. They just gave up on him and got hosed. It was really a bad move, and many didn't like it in real time, not just 20/20 hindsight.

 

I’ll take a bit of issue here. Go look at Melanie Newman’s tweet tonight. She knew him well while in Baltimore, and we saw him plenty here. That’s not at all who he is. For a guy who spent time on the IL dealing with mental illness stressors, it’s very likely the emotions just got the best of him. The postgame interview came after he found out he was being released, which is a direct response to the glove toss.

FWIW, have checked with a few people and López isn’t alone in thinking the Mets clubhouse is toxic.

Also, no one saw Cano being an All-Star. He never had a shred of that here. I agree it was a massive overpay, but that was due to belief in Povich more than anything.

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, hitterscount said:

Lose tomorrow and it is basically a lost series. Cannot make up ground playing.500 baseball… the way Cleveland is playing they will need to do win these type of series to be a wild card team. It appears Cleveland is the best team in this division. 

Go look at the schedule Cleveland has had. Since April 29th, the only team they have played above .500 is…the Twins

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, OvertheHill said:

You could almost predict that. KC has Obers number, and the Twins were due to bring their disinterested plate approach. Nice to see and appreciate Correa in person. He’s just so solid out there fielding, positioning, throwing, etc. Easy to take for granted when you can only follow the games online or on the radio. 

Absolutely agree, KC has Ober's number. Is Ober tipping? & Lupo has the Twins number, Not a very good combination.

You don't get the full impact or value from defensive stats & that should be considered when evaluating a player. Correa does so much more defensively than the casual fan can appreciate.

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, h2oface said:

Wow. This is the MLB. No professional should ever have a disinterested plate approach. And this fan will never accept that approach. Ever. If management does, we need a new front office team.

People dissed Arraez for his defense and defensive rating. But Correa is now rated below average, also, by the same ratings. Do you believe them? I don't.

I don't either. I don't really understand them how they work because. Not only with underrated but also overrated players' defensive stats. IMO it's when one overcompensated for another.

[hitterscount]

4 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Go look at the schedule Cleveland has had. Since April 29th, the only team they have played above .500 is…the Twins

We won’t catch Cleveland playing.500 ball the remainder of the season. We most likely don’t catch KC playing.500 ball the remainder of the season. It’s early but today seems like an important game… make up two games on KC or end where we started on Monday. 

[chinmusic]

7 hours ago, hitterscount said:

Cleveland is the best team in this division. 

And yet, they just lost 2 of 3 to the Rockies, one of the worst teams in either league.

Let's revisit the standings in the dog days.

[jorgenswest]

9 hours ago, OvertheHill said:

You could almost predict that. KC has Obers number, and the Twins were due to bring their disinterested plate approach. Nice to see and appreciate Correa in person. He’s just so solid out there fielding, positioning, throwing, etc. Easy to take for granted when you can only follow the games online or on the radio. 

I could not disagree more that the Twins hitters were disinterested. They lost. The pitcher was very good. It happens.

[Linus]

KC must have a tell on Ober although his command was off. Two subtle defensive plays that cost the Twins two runs in the early going. Julien knocked down a grounder where he should have got the lead runner but just took the out at first. That runner then scored on a single I believe and then Larnach misplaying the ball off the fence allowed all runners to move up an extra base. It wouldn’t have mattered but the game would have been different for sure. 
I feel bad for Jorge López. He is obviously not in a good place - I hope he can get the help he needs. 

[Whitey333]

Games like yesterday happen.  On Thursday they face another good pitcher in Brady Singer.  He appears to be finally turning the corner for the Royals.  However I'm hopeful the Twins will win today.  Go twins.

[h2oface]

9 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I’ll take a bit of issue here. Go look at Melanie Newman’s tweet tonight. She knew him well while in Baltimore, and we saw him plenty here. That’s not at all who he is. For a guy who spent time on the IL dealing with mental illness stressors, it’s very likely the emotions just got the best of him. The postgame interview came after he found out he was being released, which is a direct response to the glove toss.

FWIW, have checked with a few people and López isn’t alone in thinking the Mets clubhouse is toxic.

Also, no one saw Cano being an All-Star. He never had a shred of that here. I agree it was a massive overpay, but that was due to belief in Povich more than anything.

I heard him triple down on his statements and say he had no regrets about his actions or his earlier statements. Recordings. 3 times. Later and later. His words. His answers. And the first and the maybe the second was right after the meeting and he had not been DFA'd yet. At least, that was what was being reported from more than one other source I heard. Don't know about the third. But I was just trying to pay attention to multiple sources. Some of the broadcasts were more complete. But hey, I don't know the guy, and I don't wish him ill will. And sorry, I don't tweet (I hear it is not even tweeting now if you are keeping up), and never will and never wanted to. All of his behavior IS Jorge Lopez. We are all all of our triumphs, all of our failures, all of everything. Regardless of whether a few other people think the same about a toxic (amazing how losing makes toxic clubhouses, eh?) clubhouse, it is all hearsay to me. Press et al like to have takes, want to be first before complete and correct anymore, and they may be right. We all have opinions. I guess Jorge got his way and figured out a quick way to get out. Pretty clever, really. The whole bizarre event caught a lot of peoples attention. The Braves will probably grab him and he will be the best reliever in the National League.🤥

In regard to Cano...... NO ONE? That is just silly to say. At least Cano did. All players do until they can't anymore. Every young player signed is signed with some belief that he could be that guy. Even the last draft pics. They see it coming. The Team personnel and the player. They envision it. It is a self fulfilling prophecy. It has to be. Sorry you missed the thread that started here, and was always there, waiting to get a chance to thread that needle. Sorry for the team that the FO missed it, too. Cano was just a lesser part of why those that didn't like the trade for a 3 month track record Jorge Lopez, but that is a whole 'nuther thread.......

 

[h2oface]

8 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Go look at the schedule Cleveland has had. Since April 29th, the only team they have played above .500 is…the Twins

Ha! Unfortunately, that didn't matter much. In fact, didn't we start their 9 game winning streak? Bummer.

[David Maro]

We have a manager that lives and dies by Analytics. They tell everyone that Ober pitching against KC is not a good idea. His ERA is over 7 and climbing when pitching against KC. And now as of 4 innings today with the all RH bats in the lineup they are losing again. When you live and die by the numbers you over think what needs to happen.