International Talk: Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez

[nicksaviking]

Peter Gammons is reporting that the Dodgers are preparing to offer Gonzalez a 5 year $50 million deal and he'll likely accept. That's lower than we have been speculating. If we assume the Twins would have to pay more, what would it take? 5 year $55 million? $60? It's a lot of money, but really not that pricey if he is your highest paid pitcher, and by a lot. I understand the reports indicate Ryan won't go for it but this is frustrating if true. $12 million per year easily fits in the budget for the next half decade.

[Roaddog]

I think the problem is, after nishi, they are gonna be a little leery on some of these established international guys. Just my thought.

[cmb0252]

Peter Gammons is reporting that the Dodgers are preparing to offer Gonzalez a 5 year $50 million deal and he'll likely accept. That's lower than we have been speculating. If we assume the Twins would have to pay more, what would it take? 5 year $55 million? $60? It's a lot of money, but really not that pricey if he is your highest paid pitcher, and by a lot. I understand the reports indicate Ryan won't go for it but this is frustrating if true. $12 million per year easily fits in the budget for the next half decade.

 

If we offered him $60 million what would stop the dodgers from turning around and upping their offer? I'm not saying this should stop us from doing it but as the dodgers proved with grienke, if they want someone they are going to get them.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Don't the Dodgers have something like 8 starting pitchers?

 

I'm with Ruesse and the rest of the board on this...take a shot at someone like this rather spend $10mm each year on the Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Mike Pelfrey, and Kevin Correias.

[nicksaviking]

If we offered him $60 million what would stop the dodgers from turning around and upping their offer? I'm not saying this should stop us from doing it but as the dodgers proved with grienke, if they want someone they are going to get them.

 

So the lesson is the Twins should never bid on anyone because the Dodgers can pay more? As mentioned above, the Dodgers already have ton of starting pitching candidates. They can certainly afford him, but perhaps they get to a price where they decide they don't need him considering their depth. The Twins don't have that luxery.

 

Besides, if the Twins offered $60 and the Dodgers countered at that price and got him, isn't that a victory making another team pay $10 million more than they originally intended?

[Monkeypaws]

So the lesson is the Twins should never bid on anyone because the Dodgers can pay more? As mentioned above, the Dodgers already have ton of starting pitching candidates. They can certainly afford him, but perhaps they get to a price where they decide they don't need him considering their depth. The Twins don't have that luxery.

 

Besides, if the Twins offered $60 and the Dodgers countered at that price and got him, isn't that a victory making another team pay $10 million more than they originally intended?

 

I thought this funny money didn't matter.

[Brandon]

We could front load the contract too with all of the money we have available. We could offer a 5 year 60 million with a 10 million signing bonus that gets paid out the first 2 years. so that we are only paying 10 million per season when the younger guys are starting to hit arbitration. I am not saying we'll win the bidding but its pretty chicken crap of the organization to back down because someone is getting market value all of the time.

 

While one contract may be an overpay and I'll admit we don't want many of those. It wont kill our budget to take a chance and mess up every once and a while. That is why I don't blame the Nishi signing there wasn't much on the FA market for 2B that year (except they used that one as an excuse to trade Hardy and that was dumb cause in that instance you keep Hardy no questions). There is no one in the rotation I would mind the Twins trading because of signing this guy.

 

I'll even throw this out there, this signing won't cost us a draft pick either.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd argue this is a better use of our unspent resources that will exist over the next couple of seasons than anything else they can do. The kid has had a couple years off so not nearly as much mileage on the arm as some other pitchers his age. I know the Twins have scouted him, so if he passed those tests, I think they should do it... Plus, this doesn't count against any caps.

 

Of course it's not my money.

[cmb0252]

So the lesson is the Twins should never bid on anyone because the Dodgers can pay more? As mentioned above, the Dodgers already have ton of starting pitching candidates. They can certainly afford him, but perhaps they get to a price where they decide they don't need him considering their depth. The Twins don't have that luxery.

 

Besides, if the Twins offered $60 and the Dodgers countered at that price and got him, isn't that a victory making another team pay $10 million more than they originally intended?

 

I'm pretty sure if you are asking me if the lesson is to never bid against the Dodgers you obviously misread my post. I even said that it shouldn't stop us. All I was saying was that simply saying offer him a little more money doesn't guarantee we will get him. This isn't a Japanese player where you bid and the highest bid wins. He is a FA so teams can counter your offer.

[nicksaviking]

I'm pretty sure if you are asking me if the lesson is to never bid against the Dodgers you obviously misread my post. I even said that it shouldn't stop us. All I was saying was that simply saying offer him a little more money doesn't guarantee we will get him. This isn't a Japanese player where you bid and the highest bid wins. He is a FA so teams can counter your offer.

 

I didn't misread, just mis-interpreted. I didn't mean to imply we weren't on the same page, it appears we are.

[Otwins]

Rosenthal on Foxsports.com says that his sources say that the Dodger's interest is not as fervent as has been portrayed. Maybe price is not as high as has been speculated. Of course an agent would never make it sound like the Dodgers were going to bid 50 million when they are not.

[USMCTwin]

Dodgers Unlikely To Pursue Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

 

I wonder if this makes it any more likely that we can sneak in there with a bid.

[InfraRen]

• Jesse Sanchez
  ‏
  @
  JesseSanchezMLB
  15m
  
  
  #
  BlueJays
  ,
  #
  Braves
  ,
  #
  Cubs
  ,
  #
  Marlins
  ,
  #
  Phillies
  ,
  #
  Rangers
  ,
  #
  RedSox
  ,
  #
  Twins
  &
  #
  Yankees
  #
  LAD
  among teams with interest last week,
  @
  StivBators
  
  
   
  
  
  View conversation
  
  

  
   
   
  

• 

  Jesse Sanchez
  ‏
  @
  JesseSanchezMLB
  26m
  
  
  I'm as surprised as anyone to see report that
  #
  Dodgers
  are no longer interested in Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. That's a big deal at this stage.
  
  

  
   
  

[beckmt]

Would hope the Twins would find the money to sign him. We need major league ready starting pitching ASAP.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't know if we can outbid the redsox/yankees, but I think we have to at least try. Agreed with Beckmt, we need ML ready impact pitching, and he's about as close to it gets... Given his age, this makes much more sense than browing the FA market this offseason. I'd rather give him 50M than a Hughes type guy...

[PseudoSABR]

If money-dumping Dodgers have lost interest, I wonder if there's some serious redflags (injury/age/peds)...

[kab21]

If money-dumping Dodgers have lost interest, I wonder if there's some serious redflags (injury/age/peds)...

 

I have actually wondered what the limits of the Dodger's budget is. They have tried to show that it is limitless but every team (even the Yankees) has a limit. Additionally the Dodgers have a 200M extension with Kershaw on the horizon and they will be maxing out the luxury tax penalties.

[nicksaviking]

Ben Badler at BA says that Gonzalez' ceiling is a #3 starter and floor is a long reliever. I don't have a subscription, can anyone give any more details? That isn't a very glowing assesment and typically #3 starters and long relievers don't throw hard or strike many batters out. Or maybe I just shouldn't be comparing him to the Twins #3 starters and long relievers.

[cmb0252]

From Keith Law:

 

Haven't seen except a little video. Have talked to several scouts who did, general reports seem to have him as a likely above-average MLB starter, fastball up to 96, plus slider, four pitches, arm works. I can't imagine dealing with the inflation in Cuban free agents, but he's got to be worth $40MM+ in this market.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Phillies win the bidding war. 6 yr, $50m with a vesting option. Likely to become the largest contract ever for an international signee.

[PseudoSABR]

That's a lot, for a supposedly mid-rotation starter. Sometimes the unknown has more value than the known.

[nicksaviking]

The total contract is big for a mid-rotation guy, but $8 million per year really isn't.

 

I wonder about that #3 starter stuff though. Kind of strange it came out in the week leading up to his signing. Seems to me things like that might get passed around with the intent to drive his price down or chase other teams away. Most guys with 96 mph fastballs have higher upside, particularly guys who throw 96 mph while still shaking two years of rust off.

[kab21]

That's a lot, for a supposedly mid-rotation starter. Sometimes the unknown has more value than the known.

 

As opposed to what guys like Buehrle, Wilson and Jackson have signed for?

[nicksaviking]

He ends up signing for the reduced sum of 3 years at $12 million.

 

Blah, blah, blah 29 other clubs also passed on him but he's not worth a gamble for the Twins at say 3 years at $15 million? That's #5 starter/swingman money. Well for most teams.

[cmb0252]

Injury concerns scared most teams away.

[Mike Sixel]

$4MM a year is too much to risk on a guy with upside, but signing KC is a good idea?

[howieramone1406390264]

$4MM a year is too much to risk on a guy with upside, but signing KC is a good idea?

 

The original deal was 6 years for 50M+. Due to elbow concerns, it was revised to 3 years for 12M by the same team. Anyone see any red flags here?

[cmb0252]

The original deal was 6 years for 50M+. Due to elbow concerns, it was revised to 3 years for 12M by the same team. Anyone see any red flags here?

 

Major red flags but people are still going to complain about the front office because that's the hip thing to do now of days. Ben Badler tweeted today that the highest praise he heard from a scout was a #3 pitcher, while several told him they see him as a middle reliever. Add in an apparent major injury concern and no thanks.

[Mr. Brooks]

Major red flags but people are still going to complain about the front office because that's the hip thing to do now of days. Ben Badler tweeted today that the highest praise he heard from a scout was a #3 pitcher, while several told him they see him as a middle reliever. Add in an apparent major injury concern and no thanks.

 

You don't think the Twins could use a #3 starter for just 3/12?

This team gave Nick Blackburn, at best a #5 starter, 4/14.

This team gave Kevin Correia, at best a #5 starter, 2/10.

 

I can see why most teams would shy away from him. Most teams already have a #3 pitcher.

But for a team as devoid of starting pitching as the Twins, a team with nothing but #5/AAAA pitchers, a team literally drowning in payroll flexibility, I just don't see that much risk.

4 million per, and 12 million total really isnt that much to swallow if it doesn't work out.

[jorgenswest]

Is it correct to assume that he would sign with the Twins for the same contract?

 

In Gonzalez' case, he also wants to set himself up for his next contract. I really don't think the a Twins are an ideal place for that to happen. They have had little success developing pitchers. For the last two years, Target Field has been 10th in park factor leaning towards a hitter's park. Citizen's Bank has been 19th and 5th. The Twins have several players who are among the poorest defensively at their positions. The Twins play in the AL.

 

If the offers had been comparable, I would think an agent would advise going to the Phillies.