Skipping High-A: Buxton?

[PseudoSABR]

Is their precedence for skipping High-A in this organization, or any other? The idea of getting Sano, Rosario, and Buxton around each other seems particularly palatable to me.

[snepp]

How about, from a purely selfish perspective on my part, leave him in Cedar Rapids the remainder of this season then send him directly to AA.

 

 

I won't get my trip to CR in before he gets promoted otherwise. :sadface:

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm guessing no... He's doing well, but I think he's going to be promoted to Fort Meyers shortly.

[Thrylos]

No. In addition to being the first serious test for a hitter (A+ is a pitcher's league), it is a huge PR issue. And Fort Myers is a Twins' town.

[2wins87]

The common conception is that the two biggest jumps in level for a prospect to make is from A+ to AA and from A to A+.

 

Doesn't really make sense to do them both at once. For any prospect.

[Badsmerf]

This just makes no sense to happen. No need to rush Buxton right now. I'd rather the Twins were aggressive with Stewart and put him in Cedar Rapids this season.

[cmathewson]

The only time it matters to have Sano, Rosario and Buxton on the same team is when they are all ready for the major league team. Fortunately, we won't have to wait too long to see that. I expect both Sano and Rosario to make their Twins debuts before the All-Star break in 2014. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buxton in a Twins uni in September of 2014.

[Mike Sixel]

I can't see the Twins doing this. Buxton will go to FTM this year, eventually. Next year he'll be in NB at some point. Beyond that, no idea.

[DaveW]

Why do they need to be "around" each other? They all play diff positions, not like they are double play partners etc

[Siehbiscuit]

Buxton will finish the year at Ft. Myers and start 2014 in AA.

[MichiganTwins]

Buxton will finish the year at Ft. Myers and start 2014 in AA.

Yes, if he continues to rake and be compared to HOFers.

[Boone]

I am very much against the idea of Buxton skipping A+, especially because the Florida State League is a pitcher's league.

That being said, Cardinals 2B prospect Kolten Wong (who made pretty much every top-100 list this past year in the 75-100 range) went from A-ball in 2011 as a 20 year old (.911 OPS) to AA-ball in 2012 as a 21 year old (.754 OPS) and is now in AAA as a 22 year old (.835 OPS).

It can, and has been done, but with a prospect like Buxton, it isn't worth the risk.

[strumdatjag]

Kohl Stewart is a High School draftee. He should start at Elizabethton or the GCL. It would be crazy to send him to A Ball in Cedar Rapids for the last half of this season. Buxton will be promoted after the Kernals win the first half championship in a few days.

[nicksaviking]

I doubt the Twins want to put Buxton and Sano on the same arbitration schedule. With the recent promotions, Sano, Rosario and Meyer could be timing things a little awkwardly for the Twins as it is.

[Seth Stohs]

Also, just let him move up at his pace... let's see what he does in Ft. Myers. If he dominates there for 2 months, start him in New Britain next year. It shouldn't be a race to get him to AA.

[Mike Sixel]

Also, just let him move up at his pace... let's see what he does in Ft. Myers. If he dominates there for 2 months, start him in New Britain next year. It shouldn't be a race to get him to AA.

 

I agree, he should move at his pace, not when All Star games are, not slower because CR is a new affiliate, not anything about the minor league teams at all.

[Physics Guy]

Thankfully Ft. Myers doesn't play this weekend (All-Star Break). Otherwise my trip to Cedar Rapids this weekend might not include seeing Buxton play. I have no doubts he will be in Ft. Myers soon after. Can't wait to watch them on Friday night.

[kab21]

I have said it before but the only reason that you push Buxton to AA this year is so you can call him up early (April/May) next year. 1/2 a season in Ft Myers and 1/2 a season in NB and that allows him to be called up if he is considered ready. That's fast enough for me.

[ericchri]

Also, just let him move up at his pace...

 

Isn't that kind of the point? Some people are just better at some things than others. Maybe his pace should be getting to AA this year. It's not about it being a race, per se. It's about letting his talent be tested in the proper environment. If somebody is just flat out better than everyone he's playing with, isn't it time to start looking to move him to a more suitable environment?

 

I'm not really advocating anything as of yet, cause I'm assuming he'll hit A+ in a couple weeks or so, and then we start learning more. But I think keeping an open mind to anything with ludicrous talent makes sense.

 

The biggest knock on Buxton seems to be his understanding of stealing bases. Really? That's hardly important enough to hold somebody back. If he hits again at Ft. Myers, why not think about New Britain this year? It's not necessary? What does necessary have to do with it. The question should be "can he benefit from it?", and so far I think the evidence says he might. If he stumbles at Ft. Myers, so be it, but if he rips it up, we probably have one of those once-in-a-blue-moon talents that you should be willing to alter your normal pattern for.

[jokin]

Isn't that kind of the point? Some people are just better at some things than others. Maybe his pace should be getting to AA this year. It's not about it being a race, per se. It's about letting his talent be tested in the proper environment. If somebody is just flat out better than everyone he's playing with, isn't it time to start looking to move him to a more suitable environment?

 

I'm not really advocating anything as of yet, cause I'm assuming he'll hit A+ in a couple weeks or so, and then we start learning more. But I think keeping an open mind to anything with ludicrous talent makes sense.

 

The biggest knock on Buxton seems to be his understanding of stealing bases. Really? That's hardly important enough to hold somebody back. If he hits again at Ft. Myers, why not think about New Britain this year? It's not necessary? What does necessary have to do with it. The question should be "can he benefit from it?", and so far I think the evidence says he might. If he stumbles at Ft. Myers, so be it, but if he rips it up, we probably have one of those once-in-a-blue-moon talents that you should be willing to alter your normal pattern for.

 

Excellent post.

 

The Nervous Nellies and their excessive "nellieness" simply doesn't apply to guys like Trout, Machado, and hopefully, Buxton.

 

The most recent argument used for objecting Buxton's rapid progression was his supposed "slumping badly" May. His "slump" in that month produced a .294 BA with an .834 OPS- a number that still would have placed him in the top ten in the Midwest League. Furthermore, his last 10 game statistics (half of which were in the month of May) are above his April otherworldliness numbers, producing a slash line of .463/.500/.683/.1183. So yeah, he's made the "adjustments to the adjustments", just as many of us predicted he would. (Even overcoming a minor injury in the process).

 

If we really want to "just let him move up at his own pace", look to Trout and Machado as examples, not the Standard Operating Procedure inherent in the usual Twins promotion schedule.

[Seth Stohs]

Like I said, let him get to Ft. Myers and see how that goes. If he's Trout-like, he'll hit like he in Cedar Rapids. IF he's like 99% of really good prospects, he'll need a little bit of time to adjust. I'd love to see him get to AA for a couple of weeks in August. I just try not to get ahead of myself. Harper and Trout and Machado are incredibly rare. I hope Buxton fits into that category! But, I expect him to struggle at some point.

[Seth Stohs]

And, there's nothing wrong with him spending one more week in Cedar Rapids. One week makes pretty much zero difference. However, those guys have been together for 2 1/2 months, and they're on the cusp of winning the first half title. It's a speck on the radar in the big picture of Buxton's career. It likely means omething to him and his teammates though.

[Steven Buhr]

It would make even less sense to promote Buxton with only a couple of games left in the Miracle's first half, where they've already clinched. What, just so he can sit around for the days over the FSL's AllStar break? The Kernels have six games left and a razor thin lead for their first half Division title. It's not going to retard Buxton's progress by having him stick around 1 week and maybe even let him have the reward of playing in the MWL AllStar game (which honor he certainly earned).

 

People act like a week or two at one level or another is going to keep the guy from wearing a Twins uniform for a decade.

 

His play, once he's in the FSL, will dictate his advancement. Frankly, whether he plays a couple of weeks in NB at the end of the year or simply starts there next April, he's going to get to Minnesota (or not) based on what he does next year, not this year.

[jokin]

Is their precedence for skipping High-A in this organization, or any other? The idea of getting Sano, Rosario, and Buxton around each other seems particularly palatable to me.

 

 

His play, once he's in the FSL, will dictate his advancement. Frankly, whether he plays a couple of weeks in NB at the end of the year or simply starts there next April, he's going to get to Minnesota (or not) based on what he does next year, not this year.

 

 

 

Bryce Harper went directly from A to AA in-season. His OPS dropped from .973 in A ball, to .724 in AA- his HR power disappearing altogether---The following year, 2012, he played 21 games in AAA, batting .243/.325/.365/.690, none of which of these developments dissuaded the Nats from installing Harper at age 19 into the starting ML lineup- mostly in CF.

[Mike Sixel]

It would make even less sense to promote Buxton with only a couple of games left in the Miracle's first half, where they've already clinched. What, just so he can sit around for the days over the FSL's AllStar break? The Kernels have six games left and a razor thin lead for their first half Division title. It's not going to retard Buxton's progress by having him stick around 1 week and maybe even let him have the reward of playing in the MWL AllStar game (which honor he certainly earned).

 

People act like a week or two at one level or another is going to keep the guy from wearing a Twins uniform for a decade.

 

His play, once he's in the FSL, will dictate his advancement. Frankly, whether he plays a couple of weeks in NB at the end of the year or simply starts there next April, he's going to get to Minnesota (or not) based on what he does next year, not this year.

 

In fairness, it is only a week or two now....3 weeks ago, it was a month. And we don't know if he goes up after the break, we are guessing. And, that has nothing to do with his ability, so he's not progressing based on his talent, but on a low-A title that has no impact on him or the Twins long term.

 

All we want is for him to move up when he's ready, and not wait for artificial reasons.

[Steven Buhr]

Bryce Harper also played a year of juco ball before he was drafted which, while not exactly the SEC, was a higher level of competition than rural high school ball in Georgia.

 

They may be "artificial" reasons to you, mike. But it's not artificial at all in the real world of affiliated minor league baseball. If you think affiliate relations aren't important, you really weren't paying attention last summer/fall when the affiliation merry-go-round was happening, especially in the MWL.

 

Minor league teams can't afford to lose money at the gate the way MLB teams can. There's no multi-billion dollar broadcast rights cash to fall back on. If a MLB team completely ignores the needs of their affiliates, they end up having their players play in Burlington and Beloit instead of Cedar Rapids and Quad Cities (you can ask the Angels about that, trust me). If you think that doesn't matter to organizations, you haven't been to each of those facilities or talked to the people who've had to call those clubhouses their "home."

 

The Twins have to provide Jake Mauer with 25 able bodies to field a team, too. That's obviously not as easy as it might sound, given the stretches he's had to cobble together a team with a roster 2-3 guys short of a full roster already this season.

 

The Twins have a way they do these things and it's unlikely they're going to change now. They made a big deal last year about how they kept Sano at low-A for a full season. To have moved Buxton up after just 3-4 weeks because he was off to a fast start, that would have caused an immediate chill in what has otherwise been a very warm start to the Twins/CR Ownership relationship. And there's no assurance it would have been the best move for Buxton, either.

 

I think anyone who thinks Buxton, Walker, Hicks, Harrison, Williams, Melotakis, Gruver and everyone else who's posted a decent first half are all about to move to Ft Myers together is probably going to be disappointed. I'm guessing it will be no more than 3 guys and I won't be at all surprised if Buxton goes alone (remember, they've already promoted three pitchers).

[jokin]

In fairness, it is only a week or two now....3 weeks ago, it was a month. And we don't know if he goes up after the break, we are guessing. And, that has nothing to do with his ability, so he's not progressing based on his talent, but on a low-A title that has no impact on him or the Twins long term.

 

All we want is for him to move up when he's ready, and not wait for artificial reasons.

 

Gibson, Sano, Buxton, same old, same old. The All-Star game gambit is only the latest artificiality.

[Mike Sixel]

Affiliate relations are important, but are you saying only promoting 1 player would hurt those? And should they keep him in FTM for playoffs, to help them? Then next year, should NBs happiness take precedent over MN? Sometimes, you do things differently.

[LimestoneBaggy]

Gibson, Sano, Buxton, same old, same old. The All-Star game gambit is only the latest artificiality.

Maybe I'm getting baited in here, but what's your point? Is it your point that you generally think the Twins are too conservative, or is it your point that you believe Buxton is a Trout/Harper/Machado? They moved him up two levels last year, and it looks like the same for this year. Seems pretty bullish to me.

[Steven Buhr]

"Take precedent over MN?" No.

 

But do the Twins strike you as an organization that reacts to things on a week-to-week basis? Seems to me, they set up a plan for their players and pretty much stick to those plans.

 

Should they keep Buxton in FtM for the playoffs? Maybe. A lot of factors go in to that decision. Certainly more than just "what is Buxton's OPS the last couple weeks?" That's my point. Affiliate relations are not THE MOST important thing, but they are important. To expect otherwise is not realistic.