Is It Time For Caleb Thielbar To Pass The Baton As The Twins' Primary Lefty Reliever?

[Lou Hennessy]

Caleb Thielbar was somewhat of a reclamation project when the Twins brought him back into the fold in 2020. But since then, he’s established himself as one of the best left-handed relievers in club history. But after losing some steam in the final couple months of last season, and a delayed ramp-up this season, is it time for him to pass the baton to someone else?

Caleb Thielbar isn’t just another veteran reliever that the club churns through year after year. Maybe that was the club’s intention when they convinced him to delay his collegiate coaching career in lieu of one last opportunity to compete for a roster spot coming into the 2020 season, but something has kept him in their long-term plans ever since. 
Surely the club saw something they liked about the veteran hurler, but there’s no way they expected him to become the buzzsaw that he’s been ever since. Since returning to the league in 2020, Thielbar has a combined 3.36 ERA across 174 ⅓ innings pitched, with a superb 30% strikeout rate on top of a very reasonable 7.4% walk rate. He’s nailed down big outs time after time, and he’s taken younger pitchers under his wing with each new season. 
But the sun will set on him at some point, as it will with all pitchers. Are we seeing Thilbar’s twilight? Have we already seen it? 

It’s easy to say it’s time to pass the baton when Thielbar has an 81.00 ERA on the year, even if it is after about as small of a sample size as you can get. The veteran southpaw had a delayed start to his season after experiencing some hamstring discomfort during spring training, then coughed up three earned runs and the lead in his first game back on Sunday against the Detroit Tigers. That’s not exactly the start that Twins’ brass envisioned when constructing their veteran-heavy bullpen picture, with Thielbar penned somewhere in the inner ring. 

But now that he’s back on the mound, are we going to see manager Rocco Baldelli throw him right into the fire as a primary set-up option? Is he going to be the high-leverage lefty that he’s been for the last four seasons? There are two major factors that should be taken into account when answering these questions – Thilebar’s age and the possible replacements that they have in tow. 
At 38-years-old, it’s hard to rely on Thielbar being the same lights-out weapon on a contending team that he has been. Can he still pitch meaningful innings if his stuff does start to understandably slip? Absolutely, and the Twins’ decision-makers are likely banking on that. But it doesn’t mean he needs to sit atop their pecking order when it comes to left-handed relief options, or even late-and-close situations. 
In his absence early on, Steven Okert has performed quite admirably, albeit over a very small sample size of five innings pitched. In those five games, the 32-year-old lefty has a 1.80 ERA and is striking out 40.9% of the batters he’s faced. He hasn’t been able to get his opponents to chase as much as you’d like from a high-leverage arm (21.6%), but part of that is due to the fact that he gets plenty of swing-and-miss within the strike zone, especially with his lethal slider that he’s leaned on pretty heavily. In fact, opponents have a miss rate of 33% on pitches in the strike zone this season, which is good for fourth-best in all of baseball so far this year according to Inside Edge. 

Kody Funderburk has been another lefty option out of the pen in this young season, and he’s mostly passed every test he’s been given. In six games with the club, the 27-year-old rookie has a 1.29 ERA and has struck out 11 batters across seven innings pitched. He doesn’t boast the same raw stuff that an Okert or Thielbar has, but he gets ground balls at an impressive 55.6% clip and he has yet to give up an extra-base hit with his slider so far in his big league career.

Could the Twins shift toward using these three with a committee outlook rather than sticking to a lefty hierarchy as they have in the past? It could help mitigate the risk of Thielbar regressing as he ages, and it could help keep the bullpen arms fresh throughout the year. 

Of course, the hope is that Thielbar can get back on track, and he hasn’t shown us any specific reason why he can’t to this point. Besides having a spotty track record with injuries in recent years, the veteran has mostly performed up to the high standards that have been set for him when he’s been healthy. 
But the sun sets fast on a lot of players as they enter their late-thirties, and the Twins should be proactive as they navigate a lengthy season that is still in its infancy, especially as it pertains to the veteran lefty that should go down as one of the best in franchise history when all is said and done. 

What do you think? Does Caleb Thielbar still have gas in the tank? Should the Twins shuffle their relief plans knowing regression could be on the way? Who has impressed you most out of their bullpen so far this season? Let us know in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet. 
 

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[DJL44]

It is good that there are options to share the load. If Okert is rested he's probably the best option but having Thielbar and Funderburk lets them bring in a fresh arm instead of having Okert pitch back-to-back days.

[Karbo]

Funderburk will be the top lefty out of the pen by the end of the season IMO.

[farmerguychris]

Do we really need a 'primary' one?  Just send out whatever lefty is more rested and looking better lately when needed.  Do like having 2 in the pen at the same time.

[bean5302]

I expect Baldelli will give the 37yr old (not 38) Thielbar a pretty heavy load until it looks like he can't handle it. The velocity looks good out of the gate so there's reason to expect he can get the outs. Thielbar will finally be a free agent at the end of the year, and I expect there's a good chance he and the Twins part ways at that point. If he puts together a season like 2022 again, I'm sure he'll get picked up by somebody on a $9MM-ish contract. If it's like 2023, more like $5MM-ish. Either way, it seems highly unlikely the Twins will match Thielbar's first free agency payday.

Thielbar is a perfect example of what I really dislike about the free agency rules in MLB. He'll be 38 years old when he first has a chance to reach free agency. I liked the idea of 30 years old or 6 years, whichever is sooner, but it's not really a priority for MLBPA because there's so little value in it for the players as Thielbar is a true rarity. Thielbar would easily have made 10x as much money in his career if he hit free agency at age 30.

[Patzky]

25 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Funderburk will be the top lefty out of the pen by the end of the season IMO.

I'm leery of a pitcher who relies on ground balls for outs instead of K's considering the infield defense the Twins have right now.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

The guy has made two appearances since returning from the IL. We know his age. Is it really the time to write this?
Let's stop speculating and let players put up numbers that allow us to make informed judgments. Plenty of reason to be disappointed in a 6 - 10 start, but let's not let ourselves nosedive into speculation and wail that the season is lost.

Twins Daily is quite often a fun place to be. We know that certain kinds of headlines draw eyeballs and comments, but that's not what all of us are here for.

[DJL44]

34 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Thielbar is a perfect example of what I really dislike about the free agency rules in MLB. He'll be 38 years old when he first has a chance to reach free agency. I liked the idea of 30 years old or 6 years, whichever is sooner, but it's not really a priority for MLBPA because there's so little value in it for the players as Thielbar is a true rarity. Thielbar would easily have made 10x as much money in his career if he hit free agency at age 30.

Thielbar signed as a free agent at ages 25, 31 and 32 because he had been released so he actually reached free agency quite young. He was not very good at age 30, that's why he hasn't made much money.

[Jocko87]

Are we going to get a doomer article for each spot on the roster? It's been a tough couple weeks, we get it.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Funderburk will be the top lefty out of the pen by the end of the season IMO.

Yup.

[Parfigliano]

53 minutes ago, Patzky said:

I'm leery of a pitcher who relies on ground balls for outs instead of K's considering the infield defense the Twins have right now.

Im happy they have a guy who can get outs.  Considering their rotation they need more of those guys.

[Doctor Gast]

Right now with our current INF, Funderburk's GB rate would a negative. When Correa & Lewis return & Lee comes up, he'd be a good asset. 

[Lou Hennessy]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Are we going to get a doomer article for each spot on the roster? It's been a tough couple weeks, we get it.

Did this really come off as a doomer article? 

[Jocko87]

Just now, Lou Hennessy said:

Did this really come off as a doomer article? 

He has one inning pitched coming off the IL. I'd say some patience is warranted.

[Lou Hennessy]

Just now, Jocko87 said:

He has one inning pitched coming off the IL. I'd say some patience is warranted.

I wouldn't disagree with that.

I didn't call for the team to shoot him out of a cannon. I merely asked if they should go with a committee mindset rather than relying on one primary high-leverage lefty as they've done over the last few years. 

[Lou Hennessy]

1 hour ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

The guy has made two appearances since returning from the IL. We know his age. Is it really the time to write this?
Let's stop speculating and let players put up numbers that allow us to make informed judgments. Plenty of reason to be disappointed in a 6 - 10 start, but let's not let ourselves nosedive into speculation and wail that the season is lost.

Twins Daily is quite often a fun place to be. We know that certain kinds of headlines draw eyeballs and comments, but that's not what all of us are here for.

Thank you very much for the click and the comments, Bombo. I'm glad my shocking headline was able to reel you in. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

3 minutes ago, Lou Hennessy said:

Thank you very much for the click and the comments, Bombo. I'm glad my shocking headline was able to reel you in. 

There.  Have another. 😎

[IndianaTwin]

Why? In his last outing he cut his ERA by two-thirds!

Point being -- I'm with those who say it's way too early for such an article. 

[IndianaTwin]

19 minutes ago, Lou Hennessy said:

Did this really come off as a doomer article? 

If that's a genuine question and you're seeking honest feedback -- yes, it did to me. 

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, Patzky said:

I'm leery of a pitcher who relies on ground balls for outs instead of K's considering the infield defense the Twins have right now.

A strikeout is just another type of out.  Just ask any sabermetrics guru.  

[Lou Hennessy]

12 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

If that's a genuine question and you're seeking honest feedback -- yes, it did to me. 

Thanks for the feedback! Really not intended to be gloomy. I think Thielbar can still be a really effective option and I by no means wanted to suggest he's washed-up.

[Woof Bronzer]

35 minutes ago, Lou Hennessy said:

Did this really come off as a doomer article? 

I think you should write about whatever you want to write about Lou!  Good work.  

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Thielbar signed as a free agent at ages 25, 31 and 32 because he had been released so he actually reached free agency quite young. He was not very good at age 30, that's why he hasn't made much money.

Caleb Thielbar is under team control as Arbitration Eligible (4th year) this year. Being a MiLB free agent (Thielbar) vs. an MLB free agent are different things. Had he truly been an MLB free agent (without team control), we can maybe estimate how things would have worked out for him.
2019 = a32 MiLB Free Agent
2020 = a33 $0.2 MM (Pre-Arb) vs. Free Agent 1yr $0.2MM
2021 = a34 $0.7 MM (Arb 1) vs. Free Agent 1yr $3MM
2022 = a35 $1.3 MM (Arb 2) vs. Free Agent 1yr $8MM
2023 = a36 $2.4 MM (Arb 3) vs. Free Agent 1yr $10MM
2024 = a37 $3.2 MM (Arb 4) vs. Free Agent 1yr $10MM

Actual = 5yrs, $7.8 MM vs. Free Agent 5yrs $31.2 MM. The 10x is exaggerated, but Thielbar is in the twilight of his career, and he hasn't been compensated for his work. Thielbar will have no opportunity to be fairly compensated for his work in the future, either, because he'll be 38 before he's out of team control. The balance of doing what's right for the player and doing what's right for the organization gets skewed when it comes to players who don't get a lot of opportunity for whatever reason (not being good/service time manipulation/not being discovered, etc) in their early/mid 20s. 

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Being a MiLB free agent (Thielbar) vs. an MLB free agent are different things. Had he truly been an MLB free agent (without team control)

He was released 3 times. He signed a free agent contract each time he was released. He could have negotiated opt-out free agency when he signed (there is precedent for players from Japan). Nobody offered that because he wasn't that good.

I seriously doubt anyone would have offered Thielbar $10M to pitch in 2024. Arb4 is usually pretty close to free agent value.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Lou Hennessy said:

Thanks for the feedback! Really not intended to be gloomy. I think Thielbar can still be a really effective option and I by no means wanted to suggest he's washed-up.

Based on this response, I'm taking this as willing to hear feedback.

Where it came across as gloomy to me is that your questions at the end of paragraph 1 and 4 all set the stage for a downward spiral, which is followed by a reference to an 81.00 ERA that really means nothing after one inning. I think for me the feel would have been different had you gone paragraph 1-5-2-3-4 and then picked up from there. Paragraphs 1 and 5 are the lead, 2 and 3 are the context and 5 and 6 (or even combine them) ask the question you are trying to resolve. 

In your defense, while I can't speak for others, my response also comes in the context of what's felt like increased negativity on TD over past months. They have sucked so far this year, I get it. But a lot of TD articles have felt like kicking people when they are down, and from the beginning of the article, I was anticipating another.  

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Lou Hennessy said:

Thanks for the feedback! Really not intended to be gloomy. I think Thielbar can still be a really effective option and I by no means wanted to suggest he's washed-up.

Sorry, one of more comment. Based on this sentence, I wonder if the question you were really trying to get to was "Where does Thielbar fit in the bullpen," rather than "Is it time to pass the baton."

[EGFTShaw]

3 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

The guy has made two appearances since returning from the IL. We know his age. Is it really the time to write this?
Let's stop speculating and let players put up numbers that allow us to make informed judgments. Plenty of reason to be disappointed in a 6 - 10 start, but let's not let ourselves nosedive into speculation and wail that the season is lost.

Twins Daily is quite often a fun place to be. We know that certain kinds of headlines draw eyeballs and comments, but that's not what all of us are here for.

Exactly this.

Find some better content.  We are getting too many articles with Click Bait Headlines about things that are more knee jerk reactions.

I expect it from a place like Fox News/CNN, but Twins Daily???
 

 

 

[Lou Hennessy]

1 hour ago, EGFTShaw said:

Exactly this.

Find some better content.  We are getting too many articles with Click Bait Headlines about things that are more knee jerk reactions.

I expect it from a place like Fox News/CNN, but Twins Daily???
 

 

 

Thanks for the click!

[Danchat]

5 hours ago, Patzky said:

I'm leery of a pitcher who relies on ground balls for outs instead of K's considering the infield defense the Twins have right now.

Funderburk has 30 career strikeouts in 19 innings, about 14.2 K/9 which is fantastic. If he maintains a K rate close to that then I will take the groundballs.

[EGFTShaw]

16 hours ago, Lou Hennessy said:

Thanks for the click!

Touche 😉