A Need for Speed: 4 Twins Players Sprint Speed Tied to Offensive Improvement

[Cody Christie]

Stealing bases jumped across baseball last season, with new rules impacting the running game. The Twins have specific players to watch on the base paths this season, especially regarding sprint speed.

Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins roster isn’t built like the teams deemed the piranhas back in the Metrodome era. Those clubs had role players who would cause havoc on the bases ahead of the team’s best hitters like Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. Minnesota’s current roster is constructed to work counts and hit for power, even though the 2024 team hasn’t regularly shown those skills yet. Four players on the Twins can help the team’s offensive production if their sprint speed is improved compared to recent seasons. 

Byron Buxton
Sprint Speed (2023): 94th percentile
Buxton battled through injuries throughout the 2023 campaign, so it was amazing that his sprint speed continued to be elite. His baserunning run value also ranked above the 90th percentile, even while being relegated to DH duties. His health is in a much better place for the 2024 campaign, and he’s seen a slight decline in his sprint speed from 29.3 ft/s to 28.8 ft/s. However, his sprint speed and baserunning run value have both increased their percentile rank compared to last year. A healthy Buxton is a joy to watch on the bases and can be a weapon that helps the Twins score more runs in the months ahead.

Carlos Correa
Sprint Speed (2023): 33rd percentile
Like Buxton, Correa also battled injuries last season, but his plantar fasciitis severely impacted his overall speed and mobility. He set the team record by hitting into the most double plays for one season and was worth a -7.7 baserunning run value, the worst on the team. When asked if there’s anything he can point to as to why he’s hitting into so many double plays, he said, “Yeah, I’m slow as f**k.” Thankfully, Correa seems to be past his injury woes from last year. His sprint speed (27.1 ft/s) is up 0.5 ft/s versus last season and is comparable to where he was from 2020-2022. He will never be an elite base runner, but he can provide improved value compared to last year by avoiding double plays. 

Edouard Julien
Sprint Speed (2023): 40th percentile
Julien was a below-average runner in his rookie season with a negative baserunning run value that ranked in the 30th percentile. He’s arguably been the team’s worst base runner in 2024, with his sprint speed dropping from 27.0 ft/s in 2023 to 23.4 ft/s in 2024. There are only three qualified MLB players with a lower sprint speed than Julien this year, and they all play first base or DH. Baseball Savant has him tracked for ten competitive runs this season, so it is a small sample size. However, that drop in sprint speed is concerning. Is something impacting his running ability this season? He continues to bat near the top of the lineup, and the Twins need him to find a way to at least get back to where he was last season. 

Willi Castro
Sprint Speed (2023): 82nd percentile
Castro provided tremendous value and utility for the Twins last season, and much of that value came on the base paths. He ranked in the 78th percentile for baserunning run value, and his 28.6 ft/s sprint speed was one of the best for the Twins. He’s struggled offensively to begin the 2024 season, which has impacted his ability to showcase his running ability. In 32 plate appearances, he has gone 3-for-27 with four walks and 14 strikeouts. His sprint speed has dropped 0.8 points to 27.8 ft/s, still in the 78th percentile. During spring training, Buxton talked openly about Castro and himself battling for 30 or more steals this season. Castro needs to break out of his offensive slump to return to stealing bases. 

What other players are you monitoring for their base running this year? Can Julien improve enough to avoid negative base running value? Leave a comment to start the discussion. 

 

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[terrydactyls]

I have no idea if sprint speed is only calculated when a player is running at top speed or if they are measured every time they run, regardless of the effort.  My old and somewhat cataract-impaired eyes have noticed that Julien cruises to first base rather than sprinting when he feels he's going to be thrown out.  I hate that!  Hustle at all times.  You never know when a throw might be wild or mishandled.

[chpettit19]

49 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I have no idea if sprint speed is only calculated when a player is running at top speed or if they are measured every time they run, regardless of the effort.  My old and somewhat cataract-impaired eyes have noticed that Julien cruises to first base rather than sprinting when he feels he's going to be thrown out.  I hate that!  Hustle at all times.  You never know when a throw might be wild or mishandled.

It's possible there's some noise in his sprint speed numbers because of this at such an early point of the season, but not super likely. Statcast does take out the slowest of their runs (25% or 33% or something around there, but I don't remember exactly what that equation is). They use the top speed during the fastest 1 second window on plays where they go two bases or more and on plays where they've hit the ball weakly and are sprinting home to first. If he's not trying on even weakly hit balls that's a major problem, but I think that'd be something the clubhouse would deal with very quickly. They aren't counting his speed on routine grounders.

Julien currently has 11 "competitive runs" so it's definitely a very small sample size. But concerning still. 

[Fatbat]

Julien can be average to slow if he hits .280 and has 40 HRs, 30 2Bs.  Healthy and in the lineup is the first step. 

[Doctor Gast]

I don't think Correa will ever try to steal another base. We need Castro to get on base to steal those bases. Even though Buxton is excited about his new found health, I tend to believe his stolen bases will be limited. Martin is the one I'm really excited about running the bases. I'm not really concerned about Julien's offensive speed, although he leads off. What I'm really concerned about is his defensive speed (range). You can cheat a little to help his OAA but if a hitter doesn't hit as you expect you are vulnerable. Also you have Correa & Santana cheat towards Julien (further from the line) to compensate which makes them vulnerable. I'm not able to watch a lot of games but it seems to me that there are a few GBs are getting through that shouldn't. All this because the Twins are dead set of having Julien playing 2B.

[stringer bell]

I’d like to see Martin’s sprint speed. He has a rep as a speed guy, but it seems it is more about instincts than raw speed. 
 

Castro’s legs really helped last year, but so far he has a caught stealing and was picked off as a pinch runner. 

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I’d like to see Martin’s sprint speed. He has a rep as a speed guy, but it seems it is more about instincts than raw speed. 
 

Castro’s legs really helped last year, but so far he has a caught stealing and was picked off as a pinch runner. 

80th percentile, 27.9 f/s.

[old nurse]

Sprint speed is useless if a player doesn’t get on base and the bottom half of the lineup is in a combined Ofer 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't think Correa will ever try to steal another base. We need Castro to get on base to steal those bases. Even though Buxton is excited about his new found health, I tend to believe his stolen bases will be limited. Martin is the one I'm really excited about running the bases. I'm not really concerned about Julien's offensive speed, although he leads off. What I'm really concerned about is his defensive speed (range). You can cheat a little to help his OAA but if a hitter doesn't hit as you expect you are vulnerable. Also you have Correa & Santana cheat towards Julien (further from the line) to compensate which makes them vulnerable. I'm not able to watch a lot of games but it seems to me that there are a few GBs are getting through that shouldn't. All this because the Twins are dead set of having Julien playing 2B.

Buxton's SB's are already limited.  He has  a career .300 OBP and 80 some SB's.

[RpR]

As far as stealing, I have wondered why Kepler went 10-0 in 2021 and since then he rarely even attempts a stieal.

Last year is was Castro and Taylor being the only ones making a serious effort and now Taylor is gone.

IF, if Buxton gets on base he should be able to steal fairly easily; once Wallner gets rolling, he has speed but he starts out like steam locomotive from a dead start.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Julien's number is not concerning at all. When has he truly sprinted? He's either hit home runs, stand up doubles, or groundouts/popouts.

There is a 0% chance he is actually slower than Christian Vazquez. This is purely early season small sample size weirdness. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Here are all 17 of Julien's batted balls on the season. You can watch all of the videos and see for yourself if he was actually sprinting.

I count 2 such batted balls where he was sprinting all the way to first, and I'm assuming that for the double. There's just no way he actually has 10 "competitive runs" that are truly representative of his real sprint speed. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=1ecf5065-ec49-4179-9e75-3dc90194c7b7

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=38036597-15a4-4fca-9ab0-f69c9042b559

[DocBauer]

To my immediate recollection, Buxton has aggravated injuries, but has seldom actually been injured when stealing a base. Am I remembering incorrectly? But even if I'm right, I still wouldn't run him unless it's a real tight/important spot to do so. He should only be a secret weapon just to be safe.

Castro needs to get in some kind of a groove because he's been bad so far. But there's no question he's a weapon on the bases.

I'm glad Martin is finally playing, rather than only making brief appearances as he did his first few games. If and when the roster is healthy, I'm still not so certain that he doesn't go back to AAA at some point. That doesn't mean he doesn't have a future, just that he may be an odd man out at some point. But I think he's got a chance to be a good player, if not a great one. And I can see a future where he hits #1 and Julien slides to a more RBI friendly spot at #2. Martin has the potential to be a consistent 30 SB threat at some point.

As far as Julien, his game doesn't have to be built on speed in any way for him to be excellent. But it's my understanding he's a decent athlete with decent, not great, speed despite the sprint speed numbers listed above.  He's stolen a few bases in milb at a decent %. And I'd be happy if he just maintained a good % but was "only" in the teens.

I love SB and the excitement it brings. It can spark a rally, and stress the pitcher and defense. But you often end up with a negative scoring value if you can't be successful at a 75% or better since you also run in to outs, and, you still have to drive that runner in, or the SB doesn't amount to anything. 

Drafts and international signings the past few years has had the Twins bring in some faster, potential SB prospects. I don't think they are ignoring the SB as a weapon at all. But a team...if and when the current strategy is working...based on OB% and power is awfully effective. But you DO want that threat, even if it's a handful of successful guys, just like you want a handful of contact bats sprinkled in with your power bats. I don't see the Twins are ever going to be amongst the top SB teams in the league. But there's potential with a couple guys on the team now, and coming up, that can at least make the threat a reality.

[Shaitan]

I may remember this wrong and I don't care enough to google the stats, but the piranha term was because they hustled down the line and took the extra base (or forced it). Not because they stole bases.

Sprint speed stats are relevant to this, but this article is really just focused on SB instead of overall baserunning.

It goes without saying that Gardenhire's time ran out, but at his best, I loved that aggressive philosophy of "Nobody practices fundamentals: force them to make the throw."

I am not saying it would apply to the 2024 Twins as built. I would like to see this team improve baserunning and contact skills, but it doesn't have to be their identity. I think their identity should be a delicate balance between aggressive XBH swings and working the count, personally. In other words: Aggressive but smart.

 

Edited April 12, 2024 by Shaitan

[terrydactyls]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

It's possible there's some noise in his sprint speed numbers because of this at such an early point of the season, but not super likely. Statcast does take out the slowest of their runs (25% or 33% or something around there, but I don't remember exactly what that equation is). They use the top speed during the fastest 1 second window on plays where they go two bases or more and on plays where they've hit the ball weakly and are sprinting home to first. If he's not trying on even weakly hit balls that's a major problem, but I think that'd be something the clubhouse would deal with very quickly. They aren't counting his speed on routine grounders.

Julien currently has 11 "competitive runs" so it's definitely a very small sample size. But concerning still. 

Statcast could use an hour glass to tIme me.  Back forty years ago when I was in my mid-30s, I lost 40 pounds over a winter and then spent the spring running 50 yard wind sprints to get ready for softball.  My first time at bat, I hit a ball into the gap between the right-center and left-center outfielders.  Time to show off the new me.  I barely made it to second base.  I was just as slow as ever.  It was so disappointing that I gained all the weigh back (and a few extra).

[terrydactyls]

20 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

What I'm really concerned about is his defensive speed (range). You can cheat a little to help his OAA but if a hitter doesn't hit as you expect you are vulnerable.

Also you have Correa & Santana cheat towards Julien (further from the line) to compensate which makes them vulnerable.

If a hitter doesn't hit as you expect, you will be vulnerable regardless of your foot speed.

I have not witnessed instances of cheating towards Julien.  Correa does move close to 2B for some left-handed batters, but that's true no matter who is playing 2B.  Maybe you think he's cheating because he's moving faster this season and getting to more balls that are closer to Julien?

[chpettit19]

43 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Statcast could use an hour glass to tIme me.  Back forty years ago when I was in my mid-30s, I lost 40 pounds over a winter and then spent the spring running 50 yard wind sprints to get ready for softball.  My first time at bat, I hit a ball into the gap between the right-center and left-center outfielders.  Time to show off the new me.  I barely made it to second base.  I was just as slow as ever.  It was so disappointing that I gained all the weigh back (and a few extra).

Feels like you're telling me my own life story!