Is the Twins' Plan to Start Chris Paddack Viable? - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

After acquiring a starter in the deal that sent Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners, the Twins have the silhouette of a full starting rotation for 2024. What will we see when we ask some of that group to step all the way into the light?

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

There are plenty of questions about just how good Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober will be, but there are relatively few about whether they're viable big-league starters. That gives the team three fairly locked-in names for the top half of their rotation, but while the team has spent this winter treating Chris Paddack as a fourth arm of similar quality, the reality is that he's much more suspect.

Paddack does have a 4.21 career ERA, but it only looks that good because of his strong rookie campaign in 2019. From the start of 2020 through his second Tommy John surgery in 2022, Paddack made 39 starts and pitched just shy of 190 innings, and had a 4.84 ERA. He's never thrown even 141 innings in a professional season, and he's been far from dominant even when he's been on the mound. He's been haunted by a seemingly inescapable inability to find a consistently effective breaking ball.

Certain advanced metrics do like him. Baseball Prospectus uses the state-of-the-art Deserved Run Average (DRA) and its adjusted and indexed cousin DRA- (where 100 is average, and lower is better) to evaluate pitchers, and Paddack has a career 87 mark. He's projected for a 90 DRA- and 3.79 ERA in 2024, too--but that comes in just under 98 projected innings, across 30 appearances (just 21 of them starts).

Projecting health and playing time, and especially role, is an inexact science, done mostly by hand and without much capacity for improvement from computers. Still, at least BP only sees Paddack's durability as a likely problem. ZiPS projects Paddack for a less impressive 4.19 ERA. Steamer forecasts a 4.39. It's far from a sure thing that Paddack will be good, and farther still from that that he'll hold up as a starter, especially on this side of a second major elbow surgery.

Those are some awfully mixed signals. Let's untangle them. Paddack is a pitcher with some unique traits, and should have a chance to be a valuable starter for the 2024 Twins. It's just going to take some significant adjustments. Let's talk about what they might be.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

This article is fascinating, and I really appreciate your work.

He is only set to make 2.5 million this season. Because of that, I could very easily see him be in the role of starter for a while and long reliever for a while too, to manage innings. Hopefully health works for him.

Thanks!

[Parfigliano]

"Deathball" is my new favorite baseball term.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Very interesting read.  While you cast some doubts that it is reasonable to expect great things from Paddack this summer, it also is within the realm of possible outcomes that he will be at least a serviceable starter.  I think we all realize that pitching is a mercurial thing and last year’s best starter can occasionally be this year’s worst starter, before coming back and being great again.  Let’s hope this catches Paddack in the “up” part of the equation.

 

[Boswell]

Well, Keith Law was rather negative on Paddack.  His call was Jordan Balazovic as one of our starters!

Always good to throw as many predictions on the wall as you can in the winter, so that at the end of the year, you can tell everyone else: “I called it!”

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 hours ago, Boswell said:

Well, Keith Law was rather negative on Paddack.  His call was Jordan Balazovic as one of our starters!

Always good to throw as many predictions on the wall as you can in the winter, so that at the end of the year, you can tell everyone else: “I called it!”

For a guy who wrote two different books basically about cognitive biases in baseball, KLaw can be oddly susceptible to one of the easiest ones to avoid: out-of-town stupid. He makes pronouncements sometimes that just make no sense, because they're founded in scouting looks he got years ago or convictions he formed and has failed to update sufficiently.

For my own part, I would be pretty surprised if Jordan Balazovic makes it to Opening Day in the Twins organization.

I agree with his tepid assessment of Paddack as-is, though, I guess! All the stuff in this article is speculative/forward-looking; the salient fact of the present is that he's had a 4.84 ERA in his last 40 starts. 🤷‍♂️

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

For a guy who wrote two different books basically about cognitive biases in baseball, KLaw can be oddly susceptible to one of the easiest ones to avoid: out-of-town stupid. He makes pronouncements sometimes that just make no sense, because they're founded in scouting looks he got years ago or convictions he formed and has failed to update sufficiently.

For my own part, I would be pretty surprised if Jordan Balazovic makes it to Opening Day in the Twins organization.

I agree with his tepid assessment of Paddack as-is, though, I guess! All the stuff in this article is speculative/forward-looking; the salient fact of the present is that he's had a 4.84 ERA in his last 40 starts. 🤷‍♂️

Law is really stubborn and his ego is a little out of control because he is a nationally known writer. I wonder what his mother has to say about that.

Law is really good though and I usually find him among the best of the national guys, some of whom are either clueless on too many teams or in need of retirement.

Balazovic has a very slender path. He will need to show dominance with multiple pitches; expect a DFA.

Perkins and Hawkins were asked (Twins Fest video) about Paddack managing as a starting pitcher. Both shook their head, said very positive comments (expected) about Paddack and his ability to be effective, but cautioned that 100-120 innings would be an absolute ceiling for 2024 coming off of TJ surgery. 

I have been surprised all offseason by folks who label Paddack as a #2-3 starting pitcher and suggest he can throw as many as 150 innings in this coming season. I'm hopeful that the Twins get a strong performance out of the big guy as a #5 for 100 solid innings before he transitions to the bullpen.

[stringer bell]

Isn't it more like two years since his surgery? A lot of similarities to Maeda in the timing of his return from TJ, but Paddack is much younger and relies much more on the fastball and changeup. We don't know what kind of sustained velocity he can muster, but the heat is there for short outings. 

Pitchers should know about recovery and innings and Hawk and Perk qualify as experts although they are "company men".

[David Maro]

Any starter beyond Lopez is a question mark.Both Ryan and Ober had ups and downs all last season.And Paddock is a great unknown when it comes to a SP.The FO again has shown a inability to address SP.As of today this staff is going to put a strain on the BP.You need your SP to give you 5+ game after game,and I don't see it with this staff.

[Parfigliano]

10 hours ago, Boswell said:

Well, Keith Law was rather negative on Paddack.  His call was Jordan Balazovic as one of our starters!

Always good to throw as many predictions on the wall as you can in the winter, so that at the end of the year, you can tell everyone else: “I called it!”

#8 size shot predicting.

[Fatbat]

Someone needs to troll KLaw about Jordan B not actually being a SP for the twins this year or next or the years after that. Paddack is going to be a beast. 

[JD-TWINS]

Hoping they still pick up an arm! If they do that, it’s reasonable to have Varland, DeSclafani, & Paddack all in the same roll. Fill the 5th starter spot & throw in 2-3 inning relief spots.

Paddack & Varland are sure effective in short burts.

[stringer bell]

I loved what Paddack showed during the post season. It gives me hope for the coming season in his new/old role of starting. I’ll say it again, it’s been almost two years since his TJ. Shouldn’t that give him a better chance to throw more innings and be more effective?

[Doctor Gast]

I really liked what Paddack showed coming back from his surgery, pleasantly surprised. But we have to keep our expectations in check, that he needs to be on a short leash #1 not pitching for a long time only a few BP outings late last season. #2 Short return from surgery. He's a long way from the #2 SP that comes w/ a lot of innings that some predict.

IMO he should be used as a piggy-back tandem with Varland with a strict pitch count to keep him healthy & effective. & slowly work him into a sole SP role. Varland will also benefit from the added MLB exposure.

[Fatbat]

11 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I loved what Paddack showed during the post season. It gives me hope for the coming season in his new/old role of starting. I’ll say it again, it’s been almost two years since his TJ. Shouldn’t that give him a better chance to throw more innings and be more effective?

From what I have read, Paddack could have returned earlier last season but there wasn’t a need for him so he was ramped up and fresh for the playoffs. That proved to be a solid plan.  
looking forward, as long as his arm doesn’t fatigue, he will be allowed to pitch his 5 innings+.  I don't think that anyone expects 180 innings out of him (30S x6 innings). 
It’s possible that if/when Festa/SWR /Canterino  become viable MLBr’s that Paddack could be moved to a 2/3 inning piggy back role.  Especially if the twins have a 15 game lead in mid august, I would expect mgmnt to get cute and try some different pitching combos. 
with Paddack at full strength and his development as a pitcher (not just a kid throwing smoke) its easy to predict 120 innings and save the gas tank for the playoffs.  That might be the smart play as long as we get quality innings from other guys. 

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

with Paddack at full strength and his development as a pitcher (not just a kid throwing smoke) its easy to predict 120 innings and save the gas tank for the playoffs.

The 120 innings will likely include any playoffs. Returning from TJ is a tough haul and Paddack is returning from his second TJ surgery. Paddack also is signed for 2025 for $7.5 million and the Twins will not want him compromised for next season.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The 120 innings will likely include any playoffs. Returning from TJ is a tough haul and Paddack is returning from his second TJ surgery. Paddack also is signed for 2025 for $7.5 million and the Twins will not want him compromised for next season.

Thats true. Its going to be interesting to see how he responds in ‘24 since his surgery was in May ‘22.  Whats the rear view mirror look like the further he gets past that TJ? As a fan, they should do what they need to do to keep him sharp for the playoffs! 

[Doctor Wu]

On 2/7/2024 at 10:38 PM, stringer bell said:

Isn't it more like two years since his surgery? A lot of similarities to Maeda in the timing of his return from TJ, but Paddack is much younger and relies much more on the fastball and changeup. We don't know what kind of sustained velocity he can muster, but the heat is there for short outings. 

 Yes, it's  been nearly 2 full years. I think he had the surgery around May of 2022. I don't expect miracles, but after reading Paddack's own comments, I think he'll surprise the naysayers this year. I expect that he will be a productive member of the starting rotation, albeit with some sort of innings or pitches limit. 

[Major League Ready]

On 2/7/2024 at 5:32 PM, JD-TWINS said:

Hoping they still pick up an arm! If they do that, it’s reasonable to have Varland, DeSclafani, & Paddack all in the same roll. Fill the 5th starter spot & throw in 2-3 inning relief spots.

Paddack & Varland are sure effective in short burts.

For all we know they plan to piggyback Varland and Paddack.  If one clearly emerges, they could take the starter role with the other going to the pen or they could keep them together if they dominate in a piggyback role.