Is the Twins' Plan to Start Chris Paddack Viable?

Well, Keith Law was rather negative on Paddack.  His call was Jordan Balazovic as one of our starters!

Always good to throw as many predictions on the wall as you can in the winter, so that at the end of the year, you can tell everyone else: “I called it!”

6 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

For a guy who wrote two different books basically about cognitive biases in baseball, KLaw can be oddly susceptible to one of the easiest ones to avoid: out-of-town stupid. He makes pronouncements sometimes that just make no sense, because they're founded in scouting looks he got years ago or convictions he formed and has failed to update sufficiently.

For my own part, I would be pretty surprised if Jordan Balazovic makes it to Opening Day in the Twins organization.

I agree with his tepid assessment of Paddack as-is, though, I guess! All the stuff in this article is speculative/forward-looking; the salient fact of the present is that he's had a 4.84 ERA in his last 40 starts. 🤷‍♂️

Law is really stubborn and his ego is a little out of control because he is a nationally known writer. I wonder what his mother has to say about that.

Law is really good though and I usually find him among the best of the national guys, some of whom are either clueless on too many teams or in need of retirement.

Balazovic has a very slender path. He will need to show dominance with multiple pitches; expect a DFA.

Perkins and Hawkins were asked (Twins Fest video) about Paddack managing as a starting pitcher. Both shook their head, said very positive comments (expected) about Paddack and his ability to be effective, but cautioned that 100-120 innings would be an absolute ceiling for 2024 coming off of TJ surgery. 

I have been surprised all offseason by folks who label Paddack as a #2-3 starting pitcher and suggest he can throw as many as 150 innings in this coming season. I'm hopeful that the Twins get a strong performance out of the big guy as a #5 for 100 solid innings before he transitions to the bullpen.

Any starter beyond Lopez is a question mark.Both Ryan and Ober had ups and downs all last season.And Paddock is a great unknown when it comes to a SP.The FO again has shown a inability to address SP.As of today this staff is going to put a strain on the BP.You need your SP to give you 5+ game after game,and I don't see it with this staff.

Someone needs to troll KLaw about Jordan B not actually being a SP for the twins this year or next or the years after that. Paddack is going to be a beast. 

I really liked what Paddack showed coming back from his surgery, pleasantly surprised. But we have to keep our expectations in check, that he needs to be on a short leash #1 not pitching for a long time only a few BP outings late last season. #2 Short return from surgery. He's a long way from the #2 SP that comes w/ a lot of innings that some predict.

IMO he should be used as a piggy-back tandem with Varland with a strict pitch count to keep him healthy & effective. & slowly work him into a sole SP role. Varland will also benefit from the added MLB exposure.

11 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I loved what Paddack showed during the post season. It gives me hope for the coming season in his new/old role of starting. I’ll say it again, it’s been almost two years since his TJ. Shouldn’t that give him a better chance to throw more innings and be more effective?

From what I have read, Paddack could have returned earlier last season but there wasn’t a need for him so he was ramped up and fresh for the playoffs. That proved to be a solid plan.  
looking forward, as long as his arm doesn’t fatigue, he will be allowed to pitch his 5 innings+.  I don't think that anyone expects 180 innings out of him (30S x6 innings). 
It’s possible that if/when Festa/SWR /Canterino  become viable MLBr’s that Paddack could be moved to a 2/3 inning piggy back role.  Especially if the twins have a 15 game lead in mid august, I would expect mgmnt to get cute and try some different pitching combos. 
with Paddack at full strength and his development as a pitcher (not just a kid throwing smoke) its easy to predict 120 innings and save the gas tank for the playoffs.  That might be the smart play as long as we get quality innings from other guys. 

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

with Paddack at full strength and his development as a pitcher (not just a kid throwing smoke) its easy to predict 120 innings and save the gas tank for the playoffs.

The 120 innings will likely include any playoffs. Returning from TJ is a tough haul and Paddack is returning from his second TJ surgery. Paddack also is signed for 2025 for $7.5 million and the Twins will not want him compromised for next season.

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The 120 innings will likely include any playoffs. Returning from TJ is a tough haul and Paddack is returning from his second TJ surgery. Paddack also is signed for 2025 for $7.5 million and the Twins will not want him compromised for next season.

Thats true. Its going to be interesting to see how he responds in ‘24 since his surgery was in May ‘22.  Whats the rear view mirror look like the further he gets past that TJ? As a fan, they should do what they need to do to keep him sharp for the playoffs! 

On 2/7/2024 at 10:38 PM, stringer bell said:

Isn't it more like two years since his surgery? A lot of similarities to Maeda in the timing of his return from TJ, but Paddack is much younger and relies much more on the fastball and changeup. We don't know what kind of sustained velocity he can muster, but the heat is there for short outings. 

 Yes, it's  been nearly 2 full years. I think he had the surgery around May of 2022. I don't expect miracles, but after reading Paddack's own comments, I think he'll surprise the naysayers this year. I expect that he will be a productive member of the starting rotation, albeit with some sort of innings or pitches limit. 

On 2/7/2024 at 5:32 PM, JD-TWINS said:

Hoping they still pick up an arm! If they do that, it’s reasonable to have Varland, DeSclafani, & Paddack all in the same roll. Fill the 5th starter spot & throw in 2-3 inning relief spots.

Paddack & Varland are sure effective in short burts.

For all we know they plan to piggyback Varland and Paddack.  If one clearly emerges, they could take the starter role with the other going to the pen or they could keep them together if they dominate in a piggyback role.