Is Cole Sands Being Slept On?

[Ted Schwerzler]

He was considered a gem when the Minnesota Twins drafted Cole Sands in the 5th round of the 2018 Major League Baseball draft. Having debuted to uninspiring results, is his next phase being slept on?

Cole Sands got more than a cameo during his rookie year in 2022. Working 30 2/3 innings split between three starts and eight relief appearances, he posted an ugly 5.87 ERA. Last year, he made the Opening Day roster and worked 21 2/3 innings with a better 3.74 ERA. You’d be hard-pressed to find many outings remembered fondly, though.

The problem for Sands last season was the free passes. He was constantly walking a tightrope, having posted just a 21/13 K/BB. He also allowed four home runs in the limited action, and with traffic on the bases, they often came back to burn him even more. Beyond the surface of how his season went, it seems there’s a path to a nice leap forward in 2024.

In total, Sands was promoted and optioned between the big leagues and Triple-A seven different times in 2023. With CHS Field just miles away, he had to have a constant feeling of not knowing which ballpark he would work out of on any given day. Beyond that, his role was constantly in transition. Kept out of Rocco Baldelli’s desire for a long reliever, he worked multiple innings a handful of times but was often lifted after just three outs. With Minnesota later in the season, he’d also go weeks with minimal usage.

Despite the uncertainty, Sands kept things consistent on the farm for the Saints. Across 30 2/3 innings for St. Paul, Sands owned a dazzling 1.47 ERA with a 12.0 K.9. He gave up just two home runs, walked only ten, and allowed a paltry 5.0 H/9. To say that would be a usable major league arm is putting it lightly.

Heading into the 2024 season, there doesn't appear to be a 26-man roster spot available for Sands on Opening Day, but if there is, it should be one he earns. Minnesota decided against keeping Danny Coulombe or Jeff Hoffman for the final bullpen spot in 2023 because they wanted length out of that role. By choosing to have a full complement of relievers on starters, the pitching staff as a whole can have high performers at each opportunity.

Sands can be a high performer, and it doesn’t have to happen on Opening Day. He settled in quickly at Triple-A last season, and although that success isn’t always a straightforward translation, finding a way to build consistency for a player who is still just 26 years old makes a good deal of sense. Giving him a routine and sticking to a plan could leapfrog him toward an ability to replicate the positive showing on the farm at the highest level.

It's not straightforward to suggest that just because Sands made his stuff work at Triple-A, he can attack the same at the big league level. Finding more success may relate to tweaks in his arsenal. As a former starter there is more than just two pitches at his disposal, but a fastball that bumped to only a 93.7 mph average out of the bullpen may not be among those he should choose. His breaking pitches play well off what could be expected from his fastball, and a level of deception could unlock more of a usable arsenal. The curveball presents like his fastball before dropping off. The cutter and splitter utilize a seam-shifted wake to generate lesser spin but come across as difficult to read.

Last season at Triple-A and the big leagues, Sands was heavily reliant on his fastball and sinker. Without significant velocity to speak of on the fastball, moving away from that type of an offering makes sense. With the deception that comes with some of the breaking pitches, it may make sense to utilize those at a higher level. The four-seam and sinker were used over 45% of the time, and against lefties alone, Sands went with the mediocre fastball nearly 50% of the time. On the flip side, the curveball and cutter were used a total of 30% of the time. The splitter was thrown heavily against left-handed hitters, but the cutter got used only 6.7% of the time. There's an opportunity to take away a lot of that fastball usage and put it into the cutter. 

From an overall perspective, it seems as though Sands has been given enough information to suggest that his traditional fastball isn't a terribly useful pitch in the big leagues. That's not surprising to see an offering like that be capable of getting Triple-A hitters out, but that isn't the level where he should be trying to succeed at this point. Finding a way to use tunneled and paired pitches that play off of each other, while keeping hitters off balance, could help to push him through the current ceiling holding him back.

Going from a frustrating season to one in which he establishes himself as a big-league reliever with regular usage would be a fun transformation. The maturation process that would reflect should also be notable. For a guy who gets animated and shows plenty of emotion on the mound, figuring out a way to be more even-keel or harness it positively is part of the process. Never allowing himself to get too high or low can keep him locked in on a pitch-by-pitch basis. The environment of a minor league stadium can help with that, but plenty of the work can also be done internally.

It was never a given that Sands would be a starter as he started to show his arm talent on the backfields in Fort Myers, but it was clear his stuff was something that could play. If that now comes to fruition in relief and at the same level, then Minnesota will have another high-quality option at their disposal out of the bullpen.

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[Dman]

This is a great article and sums up my thoughts on Sands.  He feels just a tweak away from being a solid bullpen arm.  He did well as a starter in the minors but was always hurt so the move to the pen makes sense to me.  I agree that the less he throws the fastball the better. He is getting killed on that pitch.  His other pitches have nice movement and can produce awkward swings.  He proved he has the the stuff at AAA he just needs to prove it at the MLB level now.

[tony&rodney]

Seems like he could fit in if he can control his curveball, cutter, and splitter. There isn't much difference between Sands and a few others at the back end of the bullpen. Players need an opportunity and must perform when given a shot. Tough business.

[jmlease1]

Hate to say it, but he's looking like a AAAA player. Too good for AAA but not good enough for MLB. But maybe he can still figure it out, since it's relatively small samples in MLB.

Maybe being clear on the move to the bullpen will help him get settled there this season, and hopefully the Twins won't call him up to not use him. If he's got an option left then he still has a chance to make it with the Twins, but I'm not expecting him to be on the Opening Day roster; he's behind a few guys still, even if Balazovic has been DFA's already.

[DocBauer]

When I've watched him throw, some of his offspeed stuff has looked really nasty at times. But that fastball usage has to drop quite a bit from what's being said here, or sequenced in differently at the least.

I think there's some hope for him still as a middle man. The problem is he never had or developed the great FB or the really good velocity to play off his other pitchers. But as a couple innings guy with starter experience who can toss up 5 different pitches? He's still got a shot. But now having fully made the transition to the pen, this might be a make or break season.

[gman]

Does anyone know if his fastball made the mph jump between starting and relieving? Was he throwing, for instance,  the FB at 91 as a starter and has now jack it up to 94 as a reliever. Or did he not make any speed increase on his fastball?

[Linus]

Not hardly. AAAA. 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The problem is he never had or developed the great FB or the really good velocity to play off his other pitchers. 

I keep reading how the Twins pitching coaches can boost velocity from practically every pitching draftee. Any idea on why he cannot better his?

[stringer bell]

IMHO the problem for Sands is he doesn't have an even average fastball and doesn't have good enough command on his breaking pitches, which are pretty good. If he can make adjustments to make his fastball more effective or get better command with his other pitches, he could be pretty good.

He has gotten some really awkward swings off his breaking ball at times, but if he's continually behind in the count, and he's not hitting his spots, he's in big trouble. 

[DocBauer]

33 minutes ago, Verified Member said:

I keep reading how the Twins pitching coaches can boost velocity from practically every pitching draftee. Any idea on why he cannot better his?

You know, I really wish I had a good answer for you. He's got a good frame at 6' 3" and solid size. When he was drafted, reports said he was in that 92-93 mph range and could touch 94-95. I also read where he had tendency to "short arm" some throws. If I had to guess, he was just pretty maxed out physically when drafted and just doesn't have the type of delivery extension that allows the ball to jump. 

Of course, velocity isn't the only thing. You usually need that ball to spin and move some in order to be effective. I think it's just a double issue where he was just maxed out on velocity and didn't have good movement to be deceptive enough either. Which is kind of weird since his breaking stuff often has good movement.

I'm just speculating here.

He might gain some velocity in his pen role vs starting, but that doesn't help much if things are straight. I'm just wondering if he leans that much harder in to his other offerings and just mixes in either/both of his fastballs on a lower scale to "keep the hitter honest" if he might still have a shot.

 

 

[Whitey333]

Very good article.  Seems like a common thread for our younger pitchers.  IF they pitch well they will be good.  Imagine that.  What a great philosophy and strategy.

[JD-TWINS]

18 hours ago, DocBauer said:

When I've watched him throw, some of his offspeed stuff has looked really nasty at times. But that fastball usage has to drop quite a bit from what's being said here, or sequenced in differently at the least.

I think there's some hope for him still as a middle man. The problem is he never had or developed the great FB or the really good velocity to play off his other pitchers. But as a couple innings guy with starter experience who can toss up 5 different pitches? He's still got a shot. But now having fully made the transition to the pen, this might be a make or break season.

IMO it’s about command with his pitches. He got down to around 3 walks per 9 in St Paul last year & that works. Ober throws similar if not lesser fastball velocity but he spots it pretty well. Sinker, cutter, & curveball (as you mentioned) should take up closer to 75% of his pitches - getting the fastball down to 25-30%. This is obvious, to get guys out routinely. His challenge is can he use that type of pitch mix & not walk a bunch of guys. If yes, it seems he could be pretty solid.

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

You know, I really wish I had a good answer for you. He's got a good frame at 6' 3" and solid size. When he was drafted, reports said he was in that 92-93 mph range and could touch 94-95. I also read where he had tendency to "short arm" some throws. If I had to guess, he was just pretty maxed out physically when drafted and just doesn't have the type of delivery extension that allows the ball to jump. 

Of course, velocity isn't the only thing. You usually need that ball to spin and move some in order to be effective. I think it's just a double issue where he was just maxed out on velocity and didn't have good movement to be deceptive enough either. Which is kind of weird since his breaking stuff often has good movement.

I'm just speculating here.

He might gain some velocity in his pen role vs starting, but that doesn't help much if things are straight. I'm just wondering if he leans that much harder in to his other offerings and just mixes in either/both of his fastballs on a lower scale to "keep the hitter honest" if he might still have a shot.

 

 

Agree, it’s pitch mix & control……..I guess that’s kind of pitching 101. Ober & Thielbar are maxed out at or below Sands velocity. They both “know how to pitch” and can hit spots/throw strikes as needed. He’ll either adjust (with coach & catcher help) to a fresh pitch mix, with decent control or he’ll wash out getting his fastball hammered while walking too many. Fingers crossed.

[JD-TWINS]

A bit of an aside from just Sands…….was looking at an article in The Athletic - says FanGraphs, for what it’s worth, has the Twin’s Pen at #3 in the game for ‘24 and #1 in the American League.

26 man Pen:

Duran - Thielbar - Stewart - Jax - Topa - Alcala - Staumont - Jackson

40 man Pen depth:

Sands - Funderburk - Winder - Weiss………..in the October mix…….Canterino & either Paddack or Varland……..that’s impressive!

I think Funderburk has the spot identified with Staumont out of Spring Training. Also, Canterino may be groomed for the Pen starting around July 1 in St. Paul, to be added to big club in September.

[Brandon]

Sands seems to be our 9th pitcher in an 8-man bullpen.  so, he will likely be one of the relievers cycled up and down from AAA this season.  He may be here next year in the same role or get moved on and latch on with a team that will give him more opportunities.  He seems to be close to being adequate as a middle reliever.  He will succeed for a while somewhere if not here.  I put the over under for him at 225 games in the majors over his career.  I can see him having 2-3 seasons of work with another 3-4 seasons of yo-yoing back and forth in AAA.