Twins GM Thad Levine: "We Have A Little Bit Of A Hole In Our Starting Rotation"

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

If you are going for a high end starter with multiple years,  you have to know its for Brooks Lee or Julien.  Those will be the key pieces.  Otherwise you are looking for a lower level starter for a year or two for Polanco, Farmer and/or lower prospect.   

[arby58]

45 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Burnes best year, by far, was 2021. His strikeouts per game, and fastball velocity, have dipped a little bit since then.

I think Milwaukee's development/organization are outstanding. He clearly isn't thrilled with how they treated him last year in the arbitration process. Maybe there is a way that the Twins could work with him and get his velocity bumped up just a smidge during his contract year?

I'm probably being naive in still thinking he is available. But there is definitely a top of the rotation arm in there, even if he isn't what 2021 brought.

I don't doubt he is a great pitcher, and I actually think FanGraphs rating of him (19) is a bit low - but he's not top 5. Yes, I would love to have him on the Twins, but I think people are undervaluing Julien as an asset. A rookie who puts up a 130 OPS+ (and not a super small sample) is pretty impressive. By comparison, Luis Arraez' OPS+ last year was 133 - and, as already mentioned, All-Star Semien's was 122.

I've heard some people raise the specter of Jose Miranda, and sure, that's possible (although Miranda was hurt last year). Still, Miranda's 2022 season carried an OPS+ of 114 - still considerably below 130. Miranda also had 483 plate appearances to Julien's 338, yet Julien hit one more home run and scored 15 more runs. Julien had a far better season in 2023 than Miranda in 2022.

Yes, 'the future is now' but Julien is part of the 'now' and six years of his 'now' is worth far more than one of Burnes.

[Cory Engelhardt]

51 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I don't doubt he is a great pitcher, and I actually think FanGraphs rating of him (19) is a bit low - but he's not top 5. Yes, I would love to have him on the Twins, but I think people are undervaluing Julien as an asset. A rookie who puts up a 130 OPS+ (and not a super small sample) is pretty impressive. By comparison, Luis Arraez' OPS+ last year was 133 - and, as already mentioned, All-Star Semien's was 122.

I've heard some people raise the specter of Jose Miranda, and sure, that's possible (although Miranda was hurt last year). Still, Miranda's 2022 season carried an OPS+ of 114 - still considerably below 130. Miranda also had 483 plate appearances to Julien's 338, yet Julien hit one more home run and scored 15 more runs. Julien had a far better season in 2023 than Miranda in 2022.

Yes, 'the future is now' but Julien is part of the 'now' and six years of his 'now' is worth far more than one of Burnes.

I'd absolutely take Burnes over Gray, but you are right, maybe it is subjective to rank in this way.

[jorgenswest]

Julien’s control has more value than one year of Burnes. There isn’t any question on that. Is value in whole the only consideration?

Burnes’ one year can be more impactful. One year of Morris had great impact. 

[laloesch]

8 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

To each their own.

Id prefer a minor league signing, like Jake Odorizzi, to add depth compared to Clevinger. And I am a fan of SWR

SWR's minor league numbers are mediocre at best, and that's in the minors.  I don't understand why fans are so fascinated with him on TD.  I'm not sure he ever makes the majors.

[laloesch]

When I listen to Thad it does not give me much optimism that they are gonna find anything by spring training.  My gut tells me they end up rolling with the starters they have currently (Ryan, Ober, Lopez, Paddack, Varland).  They would have to give up meaningful prospects to pry away any of Miami's remaining healthy starters and Miami's rotation is already thin with Alcantara down for the season.  That means one of Perez, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera and Trevor Rogers.  I just don't see the Twins trading for 1 year of Corbin Burnes.  Oh well.      

[jorgenswest]

15 minutes ago, laloesch said:

SWR's minor league numbers are mediocre at best, and that's in the minors.  No thanks.

Woods-Richardson’s stuff+ numbers are pretty good. He has a lot of movement on his pitches.

I wonder if the movement on his pitches gave him a bigger disadvantage with the AAA electronic strike zone. There were a lot of problems last year in AAA with the electronic zone. Last year the ABS called strikes solely based on where the ball crosses the midpoint of the plate, 8.5 inches from the front and the back in AAA. Would pitches with more movement fall out of the zone before that midpoint or move into the zone after the zone after the midpoint? Did that disadvantage SWR more than others or at least did it take him longer to adjust to a 2D zone?

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

15 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Woods-Richardson’s stuff+ numbers are pretty good. He has a lot of movement on his pitches.

I wonder if the movement on his pitches gave him a bigger disadvantage with the AAA electronic strike zone. There were a lot of problems last year in AAA with the electronic zone. Last year the ABS called strikes solely based on where the ball crosses the midpoint of the plate, 8.5 inches from the front and the back in AAA. Would pitches with more movement fall out of the zone before that midpoint or move into the zone after the zone after the midpoint? Did that disadvantage SWR more than others or at least did it take him longer to adjust to a 2D zone?

 

He also is only 23, and was VERY good the 2nd half of 2023.

I have to think, someone like him, who was drafted and put in AA VERY quickly after being traded from the Mets to the Blue Jays, to then deal with the covid season only to then get on a 3rd team a year and a half later, if he is someone who is FINALLY having some consistency with coaching and see if that has helped.

I'm not saying he is a SURE thing. But I do think he is close to truly earning a shot. I know he debuted last year, and if his stuff+ numbers are good AND he has added a tick or two to his fastball, then we may have something here.

Seeing how he looks this spring will go a long ways.

[arby58]

50 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Julien’s control has more value than one year of Burnes. There isn’t any question on that. Is value in whole the only consideration?

Burnes’ one year can be more impactful. One year of Morris had great impact. 

The difference with Morris is they didn't have to trade for his one year of control, so it wasn't a zero sum game. Here, you would be giving up a hitter who figures to be batting at the top of the order in 2024 - that's pretty important too.

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I love Julien. But getting a pitcher like Burnes would arguably give the Twins the best rotation in the American League, no? You take that opportunity once in a while right?

Not saying I want to get rid of Julien. But if the twins can get Burnes, you do it 

.263 BA - 16HR - .381 OBP - 130 OPS+ and he’s 24 years old………2.6 WAR with no defensive help in the number, over 109 games. IMO, cannot trade that away (plus a minimum of 2 other guys) for 1 year of Burnes. Not long enough and no chance of extending him.

Beating a dead horse……I’d call Milwaukee every day trying to figure out how to get Devin Williams for 2 years and half the money of Burnes, at $7.25M. After adding DeScalfani & Topa……getting Williams might give Twins best Staff in the AL.

Julien is a 3.0 plus WAR guy with a high on base % and pop in his bat at 2B - dream come true if he improves at all on defense.

[jorgenswest]

Is there still a hole in the starting rotation? 

[laloesch]

14 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Woods-Richardson’s stuff+ numbers are pretty good. He has a lot of movement on his pitches.

I wonder if the movement on his pitches gave him a bigger disadvantage with the AAA electronic strike zone. There were a lot of problems last year in AAA with the electronic zone. Last year the ABS called strikes solely based on where the ball crosses the midpoint of the plate, 8.5 inches from the front and the back in AAA. Would pitches with more movement fall out of the zone before that midpoint or move into the zone after the zone after the midpoint? Did that disadvantage SWR more than others or at least did it take him longer to adjust to a 2D zone?

 

Are we talking about a whole season, his minor league career, or just a snippet of last season here?  Because he still pitched almost a 5.00 era last season.  That's not pretty good that's pretty mediocre.  And in his major league deput he got shellacked.  Look i want the guy to succeed just like everyone else, but I'm not convinced he's the 4 leaf clover in the field with the horses.

[weneedneshek]

8 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Is there still a hole in the starting rotation? 

Yep, although not according to the FO

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, weneedneshek said:

Yep, although not according to the FO

Where did you see that?

Zero chance they think DeScalfani is anything more than he actually is, which is a DFA candidate.

[weneedneshek]

18 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Where did you see that?

Zero chance they think DeScalfani is anything more than he actually is, which is a DFA candidate.

 

Doesn't eliminate the possibility of adding anyone else, but sounds like it is no longer a priority when it very well should be

[nicksaviking]

22 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

 

Doesn't eliminate the possibility of adding anyone else, but sounds like it is no longer a priority when it very well should be

Yuck and even more yuck. The rotation has not been bolstered and the offensive free agents remaining have no business taking a spot away from the more talented young players the Twins already have at their disposal.

[Battle ur tail off]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yuck and even more yuck. The rotation has not been bolstered and the offensive free agents remaining have no business taking a spot away from the more talented young players the Twins already have at their disposal.

They might/must be counting on Paddack to replace Gray and Varland to step up also. Personally, I loved the way both of those guys looked in the pen at the end of last year. 

 

[USAFChief]

23 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yuck and even more yuck. The rotation has not been bolstered and the offensive free agents remaining have no business taking a spot away from the more talented young players the Twins already have at their disposal.

Agree on the rotation, but there's miles of space for adding a bat.

 

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

Agree on the rotation, but there's miles of space for adding a bat.

 

I'd love a big bat for the middle of the order, but I don't see any on the free agent market that I like at all. Either they strike out 30% of the time, which is a problem with this club, or they are wildly inconsistent players. Or both.

[Linus]

On 1/29/2024 at 4:16 PM, jorgenswest said:

Woods-Richardson’s stuff+ numbers are pretty good. He has a lot of movement on his pitches.

I wonder if the movement on his pitches gave him a bigger disadvantage with the AAA electronic strike zone. There were a lot of problems last year in AAA with the electronic zone. Last year the ABS called strikes solely based on where the ball crosses the midpoint of the plate, 8.5 inches from the front and the back in AAA. Would pitches with more movement fall out of the zone before that midpoint or move into the zone after the zone after the midpoint? Did that disadvantage SWR more than others or at least did it take him longer to adjust to a 2D zone?

 

The metric I like a lot better than Stuff + is getting outs. He hasn’t been very good at that. He is young enough to have hope but there are very real reasons to be skeptical. 

[USAFChief]

You still do, Thad. You still do.