How Max Kepler Got Right Down the Stretch in 2023 - Caretaker Exclusive

[Parker Hageman]

In the first half of the season, if you scrolled Twins Twitter (or even our comment sections), you encountered a seemingly robust Free Max Kepler From His Current Job movement. Fortunately, the Twins did not listen.

Call up someone else. Bench Kepler. Trade him. DFA him. Strap him to a rocket and fire him into the nearest black hole.

Look, I've never advocated for human rocketry to address athletic shortcomings, but Kepler's performance begged for some resolution. After all, pre-All-Star break, his .207 batting average was 291st among 314 qualified players. His weighted runs created plus (wRC+) – a more telling overall performance statistic – was 88, and not the kind of 88 that actuates the flux capacitor and looses the surly bonds of time and space. Only Christian Vázquez and Michael A. Taylor, two players who play more defense-oriented positions, fared worse. For a team whose place at the top of the division standings was becoming increasingly precarious by midsummer, it would have been reasonable for the Twins to explore alternatives (space flight, time travel, or otherwise).

To be fair, Kepler battled through early-season maladies that undoubtedly impacted his numbers. In April, he was sidelined with patellar tendinitis in his right knee. Then, just as he was regaining momentum and consistency at the end of April and the beginning of May (including 10 extra-base hits in 24 games), a hamstring injury to the opposite leg triggered another IL stint. It probably doesn't need to be said – particularly to this savvy audience, smart enough to pay for deep analysis – but legs are crucial to the game of baseball. As is consistency. For the better part of the first half, Max Kepler had neither.

What does that do to a player's psyche? Several years ago, then-Twins manager Paul Molitor was pestered about a veteran player's putrid offensive performance. As he was wont to do, Molitor provided a very insightful response that applies to Kepler.

"I think sometimes when you get off to poor starts, even as a veteran, it becomes an uphill battle. It's hard to look up at the scoreboard and see numbers that aren't very appealing. And you're trying to find ways to get it back into a more comfortable state and you end up thinking about the wrong things instead of just going out there and trusting each at bat."

On July 9, shortly before the All-Star break, Max Kepler would look at the Target Field scoreboard and see the .207/.279/.409 slash line looming over him, reminding him of his ongoing struggles. So much of baseball is a mental game – perhaps as much as 90 percent.

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[Squirrel]

Most excellent article. Thank you.

[tony&rodney]

In the category of total pure speculation, Kepler seemed very unhappy early in the season for whatever reasons. Later in the year we saw Max smiling and engaging with others in the dugout which did not seem to occur even when he did something good or the team won early in the year. Kepler is a bit of a mystery. To me, Max and Jorge are the heart of the team. Each has had injuries and struggled to perform to their expectations at times but they are not old. I have no idea what it is but both Polanco and Kepler seem like they could be really good for another five years if they are fully content. 

[Karbo]

I wonder if he changed due to poor mechanics or if he just got a better mind set and let it rip. Once he had gone on a bit of a tare his confidence could carry him a long way. Baseball hitting is a game of failures. Even a good hitter will "fail" 2/3 of the time. How you react will be the key to more success.

[Schmoeman5]

Can't wait for Rpr and his advocacy for Max's HOF enshrinement. 

[RpR]

26 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Can't wait for Rpr and his advocacy for Max's HOF enshrinement. 

He will get in right behind Joey Gallo and Billy Hamilton!

[ashbury]

7 minutes ago, RpR said:

He will get in right behind Joey Gallo and Billy Hamilton!

[Parker Hageman]

32 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I wonder if he changed due to poor mechanics or if he just got a better mind set and let it rip. Once he had gone on a bit of a tare his confidence could carry him a long way. Baseball hitting is a game of failures. Even a good hitter will "fail" 2/3 of the time. How you react will be the key to more success.

I try not to label this as a mechanics thing. While he is moving differently (i.e. staying back from the plate), I don't believe it was an intentional change but something that happened while trying to fix holes, if that makes sense.  

In 2017 I had a conversation with him on his approach and he told me that "Pretty much the only time I'm telling myself to do stuff is when I might be in a slump or something."

He's very much a guy that tries to continue to do what got him here. He's not going to make wholesale changes. But I also think his midseason numbers (i.e. slump) prompted something.

I do think he has changed his mindset a bit on how to attack (he talked about that in the spring) but I also think he had the same mindset in the first half of the season as he did in the second -- only that his approach (and health!) allowed him to be successful later in the year. 

[tony&rodney]

53 minutes ago, RpR said:

He will get in right behind Joey Gallo and Billy Hamilton!

You didn't forget Andrelton Simmons, did you?

[tony&rodney]

42 minutes ago, Parker Hageman said:

I do think he has changed his mindset a bit on how to attack (he talked about that in the spring) but I also think he had the same mindset in the first half of the season as he did in the second -- only that his approach (and health!) allowed him to be successful later in the year. 

This seems to be as good of an answer as anything really. Health and mind are critical to success. 

[Parker Hageman]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This seems to be as good of an answer as anything really. Health and mind are critical to success. 

I realize that as a non-caretaker you are unable to see the additional analysis so let me just say, yes, health and mindset are 2 of the 3 things that helped him in the 2nd half.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

@Parker Hageman, you are definitely correct in that we can be very glad that the Twins didn't listen to me and a whole bunch of other fans who would have liked to see the proverbial "bag of balls" trade sometime in June, 2023.  It wound up being the best trade that wasn't made.   Now the question for everyone is whether they think the second half of last season is the new norm, the crazy outlier, or something else.  If we think it is the new normal (or close to it at least), then the Twins definitely need to keep Kepler around.  However, if we/they think it is a fluky aberration then it is definitely time to trade him now, while his production has inflated his trade value.  Fangraphs has him at a 112 OPS+ prediction.  What do you think?  Can it continue or should the Twins sell him off while the price is decent?  I'm completely on the fence.  I loved his second half, but I remember living through the previous couple of years as well. 

[roger]

I have believed that Kep's biggest problem the last few years were the shift, and what it did to his thought process as he stepped into the batters box.  Yes, the shift was gone all season.  But after several years of looking out to right field and seeing defenders seemingly everywhere, it took awhile for his brain to understand the change.  I truly believe as he grew comfortable with the current defensive alignment, he became a different hitter.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Anyone want to hear my opinions on Kepler LOL?

[Parker Hageman]

12 minutes ago, roger said:

I have believed that Kep's biggest problem the last few years were the shift, and what it did to his thought process as he stepped into the batters box.  Yes, the shift was gone all season.  But after several years of looking out to right field and seeing defenders seemingly everywhere, it took awhile for his brain to understand the change.  I truly believe as he grew comfortable with the current defensive alignment, he became a different hitter.

My response is...maybe?

Hard to know exactly what is going on in a hitter's head. But the fact that he was pulling the ball more in the 1st half than the 2nd half (54% vs 43%) suggests defensive alignment wasn't necessarily a factor for his late season surge. Plus, a lot of success had to do with barreling balls to the big part of the park (33% vs 17% in 1st half and 24 hits vs 11 in 1st half). 

His performance on pulled ground balls post-ASB was much better than after the break (.263 vs .069 in 1st half). Big difference was that he was less one-dimensional after the break: In the 1st half he pulled 81% of his groundballs and he pulled 60% in the 2nd half. 

There was likely something in his mind about the defensive positioning, but his ability to give himself space and hit balls hard all over the field helps open up other areas for him to.

[Parker Hageman]

50 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

@Parker Hageman ... What do you think?  Can it continue or should the Twins sell him off while the price is decent?  I'm completely on the fence.  I loved his second half, but I remember living through the previous couple of years as well. 

Very tough question.

Sometimes I think an early season injury can be a good thing over the course of a long season. Like I said in the post, part of that production was likely due to health (not having an additional 250 PAs in the 1st half maybe kept him fresh).

That 2nd half performance was one of his best splits of his career but that .351 BABIP suggests it could come back down (although his wOBA of .393 was very close to his expected wOBA of .390 so the way he was impacting the ball could mean he's capable of continuing that). 

Teams will try to adjust to him and find more weaknesses. That's the game. I'd like to think he came away with something from this year but you just don't know. 

It's a funny game.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Since the Twins had the easiest schedule of any team the second half of the 2023 season and one of the most difficult schedules during the first half of the 2023 season, possibly Kep was doing better against weaker opponents, as did the majority of the Twins team.

[Castinofan]

Very insightful, Parker but you missed the most obvious reason for his second half improvement. He started wearing his socks up to his knees!

[Parker Hageman]

6 hours ago, Castinofan said:

Very insightful, Parker but you missed the most obvious reason for his second half improvement. He started wearing his socks up to his knees!

Dammit. I always overcomplicate things.

[Shaitan]

It feels like clickbait when caretaker articles aren't labeled as such from the homepage.

[Parker Hageman]

2 hours ago, Shaitan said:

It feels like clickbait when caretaker articles aren't labeled as such from the homepage.

Are you seeing something different? From the mobile site, there are 2 marks that show “Caretaker” on it.

 

 

[Guest]

Great Weekly Deep Dive by PH. Thanks!

[Shaitan]

5 hours ago, Parker Hageman said:

Are you seeing something different? From the mobile site, there are 2 marks that show “Caretaker” on it.

 

 

Good point. It's there as a category, I guess. Though my eyes glaze over that. I read headlines first, author second. Ignore the H3 or whatever "Caretakers is."

I do appreciate the response/discussion here. And I'll note this for the future, of course. But it doesn't feel intuitive to this one reader.