Am I crazy? SP Trade proposal.

[clone52]

2 hours ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Yeah, I see the merit of this type of package.  I purposefully chose not to add any pitching prospects in order to keep our pitching pipeline moving, but you could definitely go in the other direction.  

But I don't think your proposals are enough, especially if you are only including 1 or Polo and Kep.  You could possibly sub in Festa AND Raya for Rodriguez.  Or sub in Raya OR Festa for Polo OR Kep.  

 

There's certainly plenty of play in both directions, but I really feel like everyone here is WAY undervaluing Luzardo.  

 

I would definitely give up any SP they want in the system.  Not worried about the pipeline because Luzardo basically is the fulfillment of the pipeline.

I don't think Kepler and Polanco have as much value to Miami as you think.  Maybe they'd like to flip one of them, but I don't know that they want to spend that much money.  They are going the Tampa route of trading players to fill in their minors pipeline.  Getting both Kepler and Polanco doesn't do much.

 

I think it would be enough.  Miami would be getting a Top 50 position player, possibly a top 100 SP prospect (I think Festa/Raya are close to that), a proven vet to fill in their lineup plus a lottery ticket prospect.

[clone52]

2 hours ago, MGX said:

As many have said above this would be a huge overpay for the Twins. I like Luzardo & he would be nice for the Twins, but his BTV value is inflated IMO. The Twins would be much better off keeping Polanco, Kepler, Lee & Rodriguez & signing an FA pitcher like Clevinger.

Jesus Luzardo
2023 - 3.58 ERA - 1.215 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1
Career - 4.18 ERA - 1.253 WHIP - HR/9 1.3

Mike Clevinger (Fangraphs estimates 2yrs/24 million)
2023 - 3.77 ERA - 1.226 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1
Career - 3.45 ERA - 1.194 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1

How much incremental value does Luzardo add over a mid-level FA like Clevinger? A little, but he doesn't make our team that much better when compared to some of the mid-level FA SP's we could sign. If you create a hole in RF that is unlikely to be filled in via FA or trade the team is in worse shape. 

I know he's under control for multiple years, but to me that isn't as important. We have prospects developing & there are always FA SP's available.

In 2023 Sonny Gray was one of the best SP's in MLB & yet the Twins were 1 game under .500 at the end of June. I'm not sold at all that Luzardo can pitch even as effectively as Gray did last year. The primary reason the Twins played much better from July 1st through the end of the year was the development of the young core of position players & Kepler's big 2nd half.

Payroll is an issue.  Keeping Polanco, Kepler and signing Clevinger probably isn't in the budget this year.  Luzardo is cheaper and if the Marlins want Kepler or Polanco as part of the deal, that save payroll money too.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

There's certainly plenty of play in both directions, but I really feel like everyone here is WAY undervaluing Luzardo.  

The trade Simulator has Julien as high as 41.4 and Luzardo as Low as 50.6, So it shouldn't be unrealistic to think they match up fairly close, the Twins may have to throw in a really young flyer to even it up.

If the Marlins have to take on Salary (Kepler and/or Polanco) in a trade for for Luzardo that probably does mean the Twins have to pay more in terms of prospects, but I don't see them giving up two of their top 3.

[tony&rodney]

There is so much uncertainty related to the roster budget. Man, have we come a long way from October when a  budget of $170 M was floated and the first payroll team was set at $150 M. Now it seems like it is possible that the team is looking for a final figure near $120 M or lower. 

This influences so many decisions. No addition of a middle type starting pitcher like Clevinger for one. For get Rhys Hoskins. Of course, nobody knows but we have seen reasonable players get contracts that may have been a real boost to the Twins for the coming season. The finances also affects potential deals for any of Luzardo, Gilbert, or Alcantara (for 2025 and beyond). Money being an issue means the Twins are looking to move contracts, not add money. Luzardo at $5M gets much more in the next two years after. All of Lee, Festa, Raya, Julien, Wallner, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Lewis are inexpensive. If the money issue is real for Minnesota, Seattle, Milwaukee, and Miami I would not expect additions of players who cost money. The Twins would do Luzardo for Farmer and Lee. Do the Twins trade Lee? I think these ideas are entertaining to discuss but just go in circles.

The only thing I'm confident of is that I don't have any idea what is going on with some of the financials across baseball. That and both of Polanco and Kepler still have value for Minnesota in the coming season.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

I would offer Julien and SWR. If that isn’t enough then go sign Clevinger. 

Yup.  Keep both.  Sign Clevinger.

[MGX]

2 hours ago, clone52 said:

Payroll is an issue.  Keeping Polanco, Kepler and signing Clevinger probably isn't in the budget this year.  Luzardo is cheaper and if the Marlins want Kepler or Polanco as part of the deal, that save payroll money too.

Payroll really shouldn't be an issue. We're already down quite a bit from last year & even a signing or two in that range wouldn't get us back to last years level. Additionally, if we do trade Polanco for say prospects that just about pays for Clevinger's salary right there.

 

[Fatbat]

Huge overpay for Luzardo. No way that trade works.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Yup.  Keep both.  Sign Clevinger.

Can we stop with signing Clevinger. Yuck

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Can we stop with signing Clevinger. Yuck

Sorry about this, but nope, sign Clevinger.

NO to trading EROD for Luzardo. Rodriguez has Star written all over him.

[Joe A. Preusser]

5 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Sorry about this, but nope, sign Clevinger.

NO to trading EROD for Luzardo. Rodriguez has Star written all over him.

So does Luzardo?  Great pitchers are way harder to find than great hitters.  

[Joe A. Preusser]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Can we stop with signing Clevinger. Yuck

Agreed.  I have very little interest in Clevenger as our big add.  Luzardo immediately slots in as 1-A.  That should be our goal, and I believe it is the goal of the front office.  They know how important that dynamic is.  

[Joe A. Preusser]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Huge overpay for Luzardo. No way that trade works.

I'm willing to accept that I'm wrong if someone gets him for less.  But I would also sincerely hope that the front office is able to get the trade done at whatever lesser cost it takes.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

I really enjoy the BTV site, but honestly Joe it has Luzardo overvalued at this time. I mean it would take Pablo Lopez, Brooks Lee and throwing in Austin Martin to make an equal trade. And if we made that deal it would be thought of as crazy. Stupid is what it would be.

 Not sure what I would give for Luzardo. Maybe Wallner, Polanco. Add Festa, maybe.

[Joe A. Preusser]

23 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I really enjoy the BTV site, but honestly Joe it has Luzardo overvalued at this time. I mean it would take Pablo Lopez, Brooks Lee and throwing in Austin Martin to make an equal trade. And if we made that deal it would be thought of as crazy. Stupid is what it would be.

 Not sure what I would give for Luzardo. Maybe Wallner, Polanco. Add Festa, maybe.

That certainly seems to be the consensus, and I appreciate all the reasonable arguments/discussion.  I think this actually makes me more excited that we could bring him in at a more reasonable cost.  

[Jocko87]

6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

the price for a 26 year old pitcher with 3 three of control left is going to be crazy high, The cost for two years of control for a 26 year old pitcher was the AL batting champion.

A batting champion with no power, no defensive position, bad legs and several better prospects pushing him out.  I like Arreaz as much as anyone but his value wasn't as high as we might want to think.  Were it a Joe Mauer type batting champion he would not have been available.

Julien is a good comp with some similar questions.  He is absolutely enough to bring back 3 years of team controlled starter.  Arraez brought sweeteners on top.  Lets not reinvent the wheel of value here when we have a great example of a recent actual transaction.

[Joe A. Preusser]

51 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

A batting champion with no power, no defensive position, bad legs and several better prospects pushing him out.  I like Arreaz as much as anyone but his value wasn't as high as we might want to think.  Were it a Joe Mauer type batting champion he would not have been available.

Julien is a good comp with some similar questions.  He is absolutely enough to bring back 3 years of team controlled starter.  Arraez brought sweeteners on top.  Lets not reinvent the wheel of value here when we have a great example of a recent actual transaction.

Man, Arraez out up 5 WAR last year, even with his "defensive limitations".  I kinda feel like you're selling him short and using that to make your argument that Luzardo should be had for much less.  Julien is an absolute stud and I'm so excited he is part of our team for a long time.  But top end starters on team friendly contracts really are worth a lot, and Julien straight up just isn't enough.  

[tony&rodney]

58 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

A batting champion with no power, no defensive position, bad legs and several better prospects pushing him out.  I like Arreaz as much as anyone but his value wasn't as high as we might want to think.  Were it a Joe Mauer type batting champion he would not have been available.

Julien is a good comp with some similar questions.  He is absolutely enough to bring back 3 years of team controlled starter.  Arraez brought sweeteners on top.  Lets not reinvent the wheel of value here when we have a great example of a recent actual transaction.

I believe BTV had Arraez at about 26, the same as Jose Miranda, last season. Both were less than Polanco. Lopez was somewhere near 40, mol, but his value rose. I cannot remember exactly, but I'm real close. I do not want to see the Twins trade Julien for Luzardo but it would be similar to the deal last year. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

19 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Man, Arraez out up 5 WAR last year, even with his "defensive limitations".  I kinda feel like you're selling him short and using that to make your argument that Luzardo should be had for much less.  Julien is an absolute stud and I'm so excited he is part of our team for a long time.  But top end starters on team friendly contracts really are worth a lot, and Julien straight up just isn't enough.  

Joe, I think Julien alone would get it done. Comparing this to the Lopez deal, Lopez imo was/is the better SP. Not that I don't like Luzardo, he'd be right around the top of my list. We also got a top 15 prospect of Miami's with Lopez. But tbh I would have a hard time letting go of Julien, even for Luzardo. Worst case though if we really wanted to do this it would be Julien for Luzardo and we add Kepler if need be.

But the deal I'm more comfortable with is Luzardo for Wallner and Polanco and Miami's choice of Festa or Raya. I think this too would get it done. BTV may not agree but I think this too is a bit of an overpay by the Twins.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

But the deal I'm more comfortable with is Luzardo for Wallner and Polanco and Miami's choice of Festa or Raya. I think this too would get it done. BTV may not agree but I think this too is a bit of an overpay by the Twins.

The suggestion looks like it makes sense, except that the Twins are not going to part with either Festa or Raya and are short on outfielders. Wallner may or may not evolve but his power, speed, arm, and the lack of a ready replacement make him unlikely in a trade.

I'm accepting these ideas as honest attempts to find a way for the Twins to fill in for the loss of Sonny Gray, but they also weaken the team for this season. Perhaps the only player not counted on right now is Brooks Lee. I don't even believe the Twins are willing to trade him. An extreme move would be Lewis for Kirby .... nah. We better get excited about Louie Varland. He's our guy.

[Joe A. Preusser]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Joe, I think Julien alone would get it done. Comparing this to the Lopez deal, Lopez imo was/is the better SP. Not that I don't like Luzardo, he'd be right around the top of my list. We also got a top 15 prospect of Miami's with Lopez. But tbh I would have a hard time letting go of Julien, even for Luzardo. Worst case though if we really wanted to do this it would be Julien for Luzardo and we add Kepler if need be.

But the deal I'm more comfortable with is Luzardo for Wallner and Polanco and Miami's choice of Festa or Raya. I think this too would get it done. BTV may not agree but I think this too is a bit of an overpay by the Twins.

You may be right.  I may be crazy. But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for.  

I really don't want to ship Julien in a deal.  I am super high in him.  I just happen to be WAY high in Luzardo.  I want to deal from the farm and/or Polo and/or Kep.  This may not be possible, but that's my goal.  

Push comes to shove though, I guess id ship Julien and Kep.  Boy would it hurt, but I am just fixated on JL.  😜

[Joe A. Preusser]

12 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The suggestion looks like it makes sense, except that the Twins are not going to part with either Festa or Raya and are short on outfielders. Wallner may or may not evolve but his power, speed, arm, and the lack of a ready replacement make him unlikely in a trade.

I'm accepting these ideas as honest attempts to find a way for the Twins to fill in for the loss of Sonny Gray, but they also weaken the team for this season. Perhaps the only player not counted on right now is Brooks Lee. I don't even believe the Twins are willing to trade him. An extreme move would be Lewis for Kirby .... nah. We better get excited about Louie Varland. He's our guy.

Ok, I previously said my only untouchable is WJ, but i'll add Lewis to the list too.  

I also think Varland has 2nd tier rotation potential.  

[SteveLV]

I wonder if Lee straight up gets Luzardo?  Lee plus a lottery pick type player deep in the minors?

That would be a tough pill to swallow, but you have to trade good stuff to get good stuff, and Lee is largely blocked on the current roster.

Then Polanco and Kepler can be shopped for prospects instead.

[TwinsDr2021]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I believe BTV had Arraez at about 26, the same as Jose Miranda, last season. Both were less than Polanco. Lopez was somewhere near 40, mol, but his value rose. I cannot remember exactly, but I'm real close. I do not want to see the Twins trade Julien for Luzardo but it would be similar to the deal last year. 

Until the Twins starting actually developing EDIT: Starting pitchers the cost for getting them is going to be high (or lucky like Ryan for Cruz) Because as of right now the Twins have developed Ober and a bunch of relief pitchers.

[Cory Engelhardt]

20 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Until the Twins starting actually developing pitchers the cost for getting them is going to be high (or lucky like Ryan for Cruz) Because as of right now the Twins have developed Ober and a bunch of relief pitchers.

Ryan and Ober and Varland, as well as (arguably) getting the most out of Lopez and Gray and Odorizzi and Maeda. Plus, a "bunch" of relievers that (again, arguably) give them an elite level bullpen in 2024. 

I guess what I'm saying is, I'm kind of sick of the talk that they can't develop pitching. They have a really strong pitching staff AND a really solid amount of prospects in the system right now.

[TwinsDr2021]

20 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Ryan and Ober and Varland, as well as (arguably) getting the most out of Lopez and Gray and Odorizzi and Maeda. Plus, a "bunch" of relievers that (again, arguably) give them an elite level bullpen in 2024. 

I guess what I'm saying is, I'm kind of sick of the talk that they can't develop pitching. They have a really strong pitching staff AND a really solid amount of prospects in the system right now.

To Clarify I meant develop starting pitchers, and that one starting pitcher is Ober, Varland isn't there yet, but hopefully will be this year. I give 100% credit for the Odo, Maeda, and Ryan trades, but trading for starting pitchers is completely different than developing them.

[Joe A. Preusser]

7 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

To Clarify I meant develop starting pitchers, and that one starting pitcher is Ober, Varland isn't there yet, but hopefully will be this year. I give 100% credit for the Odo, Maeda, and Ryan trades, but trading for starting pitchers is completely different than developing them.

Development doesn't stop in the minors though, right?  Isn't teaching Lopez a new pitch developing him?  Or don't we get credit for that?  When pitchers come here and are better than they were previously I consider that development too.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

It still gets results, and even the guys they are trading for they are getting the best out of right?

I do think the 2022 draft class, that will all (mostly) start the year at Wichita, has some potential to add to the starting pitchers developed. But yeah, covid and the 2020 missed year really set a lot of prospects back it feels like. 

[TwinsDr2021]

4 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Development doesn't stop in the minors though, right?  Isn't teaching Lopez a new pitch developing him?  Or don't we get credit for that?  When pitchers come here and are better than they were previously I consider that development too.  

Sure for every Lopez, Gray  and Odo, there is a Strotman,  Shoemaker, Happ, De Leon, Keuchel, Sanchez, Chi Chi, Rodriguez that didn't . Maeda had his career best ERA and two worst Career ERA with the Twins, Is that a success and failure to develop?

I don't give the Twins credit for developing major leagues pitchers (Joe Ryan pitched two games in the Twins minors before coming up), I DO give them credit for finding the right guys to trade for and helping them take their game to another level

Also I give them credit for a pretty good job of turning minor league prospects into good relief pitchers.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I mean, they led baseball in strikeouts last year as a pitching staff, and had the 4th most pitching WAR for all teams in baseball. There is still work to do to add pitching, but generally I'd say they are in a very healthy spot overall no? Whatever they are doing, overall, is working.

[Jocko87]

42 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

To Clarify I meant develop starting pitchers, and that one starting pitcher is Ober, Varland isn't there yet, but hopefully will be this year. I give 100% credit for the Odo, Maeda, and Ryan trades, but trading for starting pitchers is completely different than developing them.

But it's Falveys move, going back to Cleveland. Sure, everyone gets a lucky draft pick that they can wait 7 years for every now and then but it's a terrible way to build a ML staff. Falvey is exceptional at finding 23 year olds with excess value. They didn't luck into that staff last year.

It's a fun exercise to go through the Cleveland transaction logs during the Falvey regime. Lots of familiar names.