Should Twins Continue to Trade for a Starter

[tony&rodney]

George Kirby?

Does Seattle have any interest?

What does this potentially mean? Kirilloff or Lewis or Julien or Wallner or Lee or ??? plus a few minor league guys.

November and speculation isn't that far away. For now I'm just going to enjoy the postseason. The offseason could be huge this year.

[Five minute major]

7 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The offense was a huge problem in June. 

It got better

It didn't get better enough

Some of that improvement was through subtraction.  

You can address needs simultaneously but offense would have to be #1 if I were to rank needs according to my opinion. 

Bringing that K rate down is a good place to start. 

This is perfectly stated.  I don't believe it is ALL on the hitters.   The organization has clearly decided that every hitter needs to swing for the fences on every pitch.  Rules were changed this year in MLB to reward hitting for average (no more shift) as well as base stealing, which the Twins basically all but ignored.    Coaching is also a big contributor to this issue.   

[DJL44]

21 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I recommended in another thread that the Twins offer Gray a 4-year, $90M deal at the following amounts:

2024  $30M

2025 $25M

2026 $20M (with a buyout)

2027 $15M (with a buyout)

Front loading a baseball contract fails Finance 101

[terrydactyls]

45 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Front loading a baseball contract fails Finance 101

This is baseball, not a class on theoretical finance.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, terrydactyls said:

This is baseball, not a class on theoretical finance.

Right. Baseball is practical finance, not theoretical.

[terrydactyls]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Right. Baseball is practical finance, not theoretical.

The Mets are practical?  Is baseball practical?  Really?  $5M to $8M for a under .500 winning % pitcher or for a backup middle infielder?

[tony&rodney]

The Twins will have plenty of discussion about whether to sign Sonny Gray. Gray just had a spectacular year.

One item (totally outside of Gray's control) to be at least considered is the record in games where Gray started, 14-19.

The season long competitive innings pitched by Gray will need to be replaced, which will surely be a difficult task.

I don't see how the Twins can offer Sonny Gray a fair contract compared to what several other teams will be prepared to offer.

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

The Mets are practical?  Is baseball practical?  Really?  $5M to $8M for a under .500 winning % pitcher or for a backup middle infielder?

prac·ti·cal

/ˈpraktək(ə)l/

adjective

 

1. 1.

   of or concerned with the actual doing or use of something rather than with theory and ideas.

   "there are two obvious practical applications of the research"

[terrydactyls]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

prac·ti·cal

/ˈpraktək(ə)l/

 

adjective

 

1. 1.

   of or concerned with the actual doing or use of something rather than with theory and ideas.

   "there are two obvious practical applications of the research"

You forgot to mention the second definition.

2. (of an idea, plan, or method) likely to succeed or be effective in real circumstances; feasible. 

Thank you for proving that many MLB front offices are not practical.

[Nine of twelve]

41 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

One item (totally outside of Gray's control) to be at least considered is the record in games where Gray started, 14-19.

If that's totally out of Gray's control why consider it?

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

If that's totally out of Gray's control why consider it?

The Twins are an organization that looks at numbers. While I believe Gray did his part in his starts and the Twins may too, that doesn't mean they will ignore the record in his starts when looking at what are the odds of replacing him to gain a plus margin in those 33 starts in the regular season. Like everything thrown out here on Twins Daily, this is just a personal thought.

Related perhaps, the media contracts may take in substantially less money in 2024. I have no idea what is going on there. I am also guessing the Twins cut overall payroll by around $20 million. I don't believe that will restrict them from putting a better team on the field next year.

[FilthyMogwai]

Personally, I'd like to see them spend. Now is the time to invest in this team. I'm not a huge Blake Snell fan, but that's the sort of arm I'd like to see as their #2. If Sonny wants to return, great! Rather see him at 3 and Joe Ryan at 4. Then whoever wins the battle of Varland/Ober/Paddack at 5. 

 

Paddack looked outstanding out of the pen. If the velocity sticks, I'd be fine with him as a bullpen weapon.

[Muppet]

38 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

If that's totally out of Gray's control why consider it?

In 9 of those losses, Gray gave up 2 or fewer runs. 

[Battle ur tail off]

On 10/12/2023 at 9:17 AM, nicksaviking said:

Yes, trade or sign a Sonny Gray replacement. I like the internal options, but I did last year too, and overstuffing the rotation was easily the best thing the front office did all year.

I agree with this and also want to add that they overstuffed other areas also. Depth is what kept these guys in it all year. Once guys started getting healthy for the playoffs, they had a pile to choose from.

Pitching wins, flat out. Keep that area of the team as your strength and you will always have a chance.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

You forgot to mention the second definition.

2. (of an idea, plan, or method) likely to succeed or be effective in real circumstances; feasible. 

Thank you for proving that many MLB front offices are not practical.

I didn't mention the second definition because it wasn't what I meant, and you know it. I was explaining my post, though you seem content to ignore what I said and argue with yourself.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins are an organization that looks at numbers. While I believe Gray did his part in his starts and the Twins may too, that doesn't mean they will ignore the record in his starts when looking at what are the odds of replacing him to gain a plus margin in those 33 starts in the regular season. Like everything thrown out here on Twins Daily, this is just a personal thought.

Related perhaps, the media contracts may take in substantially less money in 2024. I have no idea what is going on there. I am also guessing the Twins cut overall payroll by around $20 million. I don't believe that will restrict them from putting a better team on the field next year.

No team looks at W-L records of SP to make decisions on said pitchers. No organization. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd certainly be open to trading for a SP, but I couldn't guess who that would be at this point. And, the FO can work on that and offense at the same time.......not to mention the dozens of other things they are working on that aren't even on teh field related. 

[jorgenswest]

20 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

George Kirby?

Does Seattle have any interest?

What does this potentially mean? Kirilloff or Lewis or Julien or Wallner or Lee or ??? plus a few minor league guys.

November and speculation isn't that far away. For now I'm just going to enjoy the postseason. The offseason could be huge this year.

Winter trades of multiple players for 1 are difficult because all teams have 40 man roster challenges. Head over to BTV and Kirby is valued at 90.1. That exceeds the value of Lewis and Julien combined. Is that something the Twins should pursue?

The best asset the Twins have to trade for a starting pitcher is Brooks Lee. If the DBacks were interested in moving Zac Galen and his two years of control Lee might get it done.

A pitcher with one year of control like Glasnow might take Rodriquez and Festa. 

Buy low on Alek Manoah? Control until 2028. Blue Jays might be interested in Polanco in that deal.

[ashbury]

39 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Buy low on Alek Manoah? Control until 2028. Blue Jays might be interested in Polanco in that deal.

Why not?  A team that would pull Jose Berrios in the fourth inning of a scoreless game might be open to any discussion.

[Mike Sixel]

43 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Winter trades of multiple players for 1 are difficult because all teams have 40 man roster challenges. Head over to BTV and Kirby is valued at 90.1. That exceeds the value of Lewis and Julien combined. Is that something the Twins should pursue?

The best asset the Twins have to trade for a starting pitcher is Brooks Lee. If the DBacks were interested in moving Zac Galen and his two years of control Lee might get it done.

A pitcher with one year of control like Glasnow might take Rodriquez and Festa. 

Buy low on Alek Manoah? Control until 2028. Blue Jays might be interested in Polanco in that deal.

I don't see AZ weakening their SP going into next year. If anything, they want to add MLB star power at this point. The time to get Galen was when MIA traded him....but that ship has sailed.

[tony&rodney]

Baseball trade values is only good for ideas and guesses, which I would argue is better than nothing. 

Still, you can bet that a few front offices get a chuckle out of many of the evaluations. 

Teams will trade to fill positions of need and be willing to give up quite a bit if they think the guy they receive is worth it in the end. The Lopez-Arraez trade was a good example of a dynamic trade that benefitted both teams even while the initial responses were disbelief and anger. Each team was able to identify their needs and find a match. This can happen again. 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

No team looks at W-L records of SP to make decisions on said pitchers. No organization. 

Every number is looked over by every organization. I did not reference the pitcher won-loss record. I referenced the record in those games where Sonny Gray was a starter. I also did not indicate this as a key focal point or even important in any way, but rather as among a pile of data points that are discussed. I can actually say that these conversations, among many, take place as thoughts are exchanged within the context of how to address roster decisions and improve the team. The chalk board, so to speak, is covered with a host of thoughts, ideas, and yes, data to open any avenue potentially related to change for the positive. 

[2wins87]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Front loading a baseball contract fails Finance 101

They have a lot of money to play with this offseason, but in 2025 they already have a $20 million increase in guaranteed money from the Lopez, Paddack, and Dobnak contracts.  They also have a lot of pre-arb and early arb players right now that will be getting more expensive in 2025.

Even factoring in revenue growth and payroll budget growth, a front loaded contract actually does make sense for the Twins in their particular situation.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't see AZ weakening their SP going into next year. If anything, they want to add MLB star power at this point. The time to get Galen was when MIA traded him....but that ship has sailed.

I agree.

I was looking for a pitcher with two years of control and value in the neighborhood of Lee. I also looked at teams where budgets can sometimes be a factor to the point where they will sell high when the arb figure starts to go up and control is running out. Galen is the one I found. Is there a closer comp to where Lopez was a year ago?

[DJL44]

48 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

They have a lot of money to play with this offseason, but in 2025 they already have a $20 million increase in guaranteed money from the Lopez, Paddack, and Dobnak contracts.  They also have a lot of pre-arb and early arb players right now that will be getting more expensive in 2025.

Even factoring in revenue growth and payroll budget growth, a front loaded contract actually does make sense for the Twins in their particular situation.

Only if they're up against the luxury tax in future seasons. Otherwise it always makes sense to back load a contract. Put the money in the bank and earn interest.