Three Keys for the Twins to Slay the Astros

[Adam Friedman]

Starting on Saturday afternoon, the Minnesota Twins will play a second-round playoff series for the first time since 2001. After beating Toronto, it's easy for fans to dream about a deep run, at least to the American League Championship Series (ALCS). To do that, the Twins will have to snap another streak... the Houston Astros' six-year streak of making it to the ALCS. 

Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

I argued a couple of weeks ago that while the Astros are still a great team, they have vulnerabilities that make them a beatable opponent for the Twins, despite Minnesota being the underdog. To exploit the weaknesses of the first Houston team in the last seven years to win fewer than 95 games with 90,  the Twins can do three key things to put themselves in a great position to advance. 

Contain Altuve and Alvarez
The 2023 Astros are not as deep as prior Houston teams in the lineup. They will start at least three below-average hitters by wRC+, yet their offense still finished the regular season fifth in wRC+, largely because they get exceptional production from future Hall of Famer Jose Altuve and arguably the best hitter in baseball, Yordan Alvarez. Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are also terrific and playoff-proven hitters, but they aren't quite at the top-tier level of Altuve and Alvarez. 

Beyond that core of four, the Astros only have two other players with a wRC+ above 100, meaning they are above average. Those two are Yainer Diaz and Chas McCormick, neither of whom is guaranteed to start any postseason games based on Dusty Baker's lineups down the stretch. 
With this lack of depth, the Astros will heavily rely on Altuve and Alvarez to provide them with the production needed to win the series. It's doubtful that the Twins will be able to shut this pair of superstars down completely, so the goal will be to scatter singles from them and prevent them from hurting the Twins with the long ball. That would force the rest of the Astros to win the series for them, which should be a big ask for that group of hitters against the Twins' strong pitching staff.

Twins Hitters Top to Bottom Step Up Against an Inferior Pitching Staff
Justin Verlander is a future Hall of Famer and Framber Valdez is a tough lefty who troubled the Twins in the 2020 playoffs. In 2023, neither was as good as Kevin Gausman, and the Astros bullpen is not as deep as Toronto's. Beyond the top two starters, there is a massive drop-off to Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier , and J.P. France. Overall, the Astros finished 14th in ERA and 17th in FIP. Houston's elite offense is its strength, unlike Toronto, whose pitching carried them, so the Twins will need to expose the weaker pitching they will see in this series and score more than 2.5 runs per game.

To expose the Astros' pitching staff, the Twins will need the hitters who struggled against Toronto to step up. That includes but is not limited to Edouard Julien, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, and Ryan Jeffers. Many in that group could be aided by a short left field wall- especially Julien, Kirilloff, and Jeffers. It didn't matter that this group was poor against Toronto because the Blue Jays only scored one run. That level of run prevention is unlikely to be repeated against an offense of Houston's quality and experience, so the Twins will need a few hitters in this group to step up and help the offense put up closer to five runs per game. 

Continue to Make Plays in the Field
The Wild Card Series was an even affair between two good but very even teams. Both teams pitched well, and neither hit much, but the Twins separated themselves from the Blue Jays by playing tremendous defense to steal outs and prevent runs. Carlos Correa was amazing defensively, cutting down Bo Bichette at home after a Jorge Polanco mistake, and in Game 2 leading a pickoff play against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Julien was also solid at second, contrary to his reputation, and Michael A. Taylor made some dazzling plays in center field.

To beat Houston, the Twins will need to not only pitch well and score more runs but also continue to take away runs in the field. As we saw, it can be the difference in tight games. It will be crucial to be exceptional in the field against a far superior offense to Toronto's. Missing a play and giving them a run and an extra out could be disastrous, but taking away a hit or making a heads-up play to steal an out can also boost the pitching staff as they grind against a good offense. Defense could be the separator that gets the Twins to the ALCS and snaps the Astros' six-year streak. 

Final Thoughts
Knocking off a dynasty and ending an incredible streak of dominance in the American League will not be easy. But this Astros team isn't as strong as they have been in recent years, so pulling off the upset is possible if the Twins execute defensively and on the bump, and the lineup comes to life against a mediocre pitching staff. Will the Twins do what's needed to come within four wins of their first World Series birth since 1991? 

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[Karbo]

I feel it will come down to if the Twins bats can come alive. I agree that 2.5 runs per game probably isn't going to be enough. That's an awful lot of pressure on the pitching staff to hold the Astros hitters to 2 runs per game

[Oldgoat_MN]

No question the bats need to come to life. And your point about solid defense is always important, but you make an important distinction.

The Astros offense is not one you want to be giving extra outs to.

This should be an excellent series. I believe the teams each have strengths the other team doesn't. 

Fun stuff. Go Twins.!

[BH67]

April 27, 1980 at the Forum in Montreal. The four-time defending Stanley Cup champions, with their elite goalie retired and their stars aging, face Game 7 in the quarterfinals against some upstarts in green and gold trying to overcome years of mediocrity and inferiority.

It's happened before.

[Aerodeliria]

Good hitting and good pitching (especially concerning BBs) are needed for sure, but the defense simply cannot give up extra outs. Polanco needs to be moved to 2nd, DHed or used as a pinch-hitter. He just doesn't look comfortable at 3rd and it eventually will cost the Twins (I'm afraid).

[Fat Calvin]

Polanco at 2nd, Lewis at 3rd and Julian dhing.  Can a hamstring heal in two days?

[Doctor Gast]

Agree totally with you Adam. We have to max our defense so that means moving Polanco back to 2B, having hopefully Lewis at 3B if not, Farmer or Castro, and keeping Julien at DH or 1B when he plays. We need the rest of the line-up to wake up besides Lewis, Correa & Kepler

[tony&rodney]

The Twins pitching has been pretty consistent all year. It might slip in a game or two but fans of the team can count on the pitching in my opinion.

The Twins defense has been all over the map but fairly decent at making the outs. A few Twins look less than stellar in the field yet I'm comfortable with those awkward plays that result in an out.

The primary pressure in this series will be on the Twins offense. They will need to lay off of pitches out of the zone and punish mistakes. The Twins have bats who can accomplish this and Houston pitchers will make enough mistakes to provide opportunities for Minnesota to score runs. This is actually the strength of the Astros offense right now, which will face a slew of Twins pitchers capable of throwing strikes on the edges of the strike zone.

This series is a great matchup in my opinion and whomever manages to execute their plan should prevail in the games. National writers see the Astros as a far superior team while giving only a nod to the Twins pitchers and Correa. It is an opportunity for a number of unheralded Twins players to give the wider audience a chance to remember their names.

[Adam Friedman]

10 hours ago, Karbo said:

I feel it will come down to if the Twins bats can come alive. I agree that 2.5 runs per game probably isn't going to be enough. That's an awful lot of pressure on the pitching staff to hold the Astros hitters to 2 runs per game

Yup. Even if they contain Alvarez and Altuve, they’re going to need some runs this series!

[Adam Friedman]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Agree totally with you Adam. We have to max our defense so that means moving Polanco back to 2B, having hopefully Lewis at 3B if not, Farmer or Castro, and keeping Julien at DH or 1B when he plays. We need the rest of the line-up to wake up besides Lewis, Correa & Kepler

I get this point, but I think it’s critical to keep Lewis, Polanco, and Julien in the lineup against righties. The Astros are going to score some runs and we need to play good defense to limit it, but it’s just as important to score runs against them. The silver lining is that against Valdez Julien will sit and Farmer can play third.

[Coach Wheels]

Have to be better offensively, I'd like us to stop flipping Kiriloff and Wallner so quickly when there's a pitching change. Each of the got 1 AB on Wednesday before being replaced; can't get comfortable when you don't get AB's

[Blyleven2011]

The 3 keys to winning  ...

Pitching ,  defense and hitting ...

swing at those close pitches with 2 strikes , put the ball in play  , hopefully  stay out of the double play and steal some bases  ...

Go Twins 

[CRF]

Looks like everybody is on the same page...the pitching needs to remain good, and we obviously need to hit better and score a lot more runs than the Toronto series. If those things happen, we'll give the Stros all they can handle. I'd add one more thing, and it's just my 2 cents...I don't want to see Rocco over manage us out of any game. No blowing through our bench in the 2nd or 3rd inning. Save the pinch hitting and substitutions for later in the games. 

[Adam Friedman]

3 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

Have to be better offensively, I'd like us to stop flipping Kiriloff and Wallner so quickly when there's a pitching change. Each of the got 1 AB on Wednesday before being replaced; can't get comfortable when you don't get AB's

The Astros don’t really have any lefty’s in their bullpen. Their righties can get lefties out, but they won’t force Rocco to consider pinch hitting. It should give Julien, Wallner, and Kirilloff the chance to really get going. 

[Brandon]

As long as we give up less runs and score more runs  in three of the same games we should come out on top.  The keys to doing this are pitching defense and hitting.  We got this.