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I argued a couple of weeks ago that while the Astros are still a great team, they have vulnerabilities that make them a beatable opponent for the Twins, despite Minnesota being the underdog. To exploit the weaknesses of the first Houston team in the last seven years to win fewer than 95 games with 90, the Twins can do three key things to put themselves in a great position to advance.
Contain Altuve and Alvarez
The 2023 Astros are not as deep as prior Houston teams in the lineup. They will start at least three below-average hitters by wRC+, yet their offense still finished the regular season fifth in wRC+, largely because they get exceptional production from future Hall of Famer Jose Altuve and arguably the best hitter in baseball, Yordan Alvarez. Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are also terrific and playoff-proven hitters, but they aren't quite at the top-tier level of Altuve and Alvarez.
Beyond that core of four, the Astros only have two other players with a wRC+ above 100, meaning they are above average. Those two are Yainer Diaz and Chas McCormick, neither of whom is guaranteed to start any postseason games based on Dusty Baker's lineups down the stretch.
With this lack of depth, the Astros will heavily rely on Altuve and Alvarez to provide them with the production needed to win the series. It's doubtful that the Twins will be able to shut this pair of superstars down completely, so the goal will be to scatter singles from them and prevent them from hurting the Twins with the long ball. That would force the rest of the Astros to win the series for them, which should be a big ask for that group of hitters against the Twins' strong pitching staff.
Twins Hitters Top to Bottom Step Up Against an Inferior Pitching Staff
Justin Verlander is a future Hall of Famer and Framber Valdez is a tough lefty who troubled the Twins in the 2020 playoffs. In 2023, neither was as good as Kevin Gausman, and the Astros bullpen is not as deep as Toronto's. Beyond the top two starters, there is a massive drop-off to Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier , and J.P. France. Overall, the Astros finished 14th in ERA and 17th in FIP. Houston's elite offense is its strength, unlike Toronto, whose pitching carried them, so the Twins will need to expose the weaker pitching they will see in this series and score more than 2.5 runs per game.
To expose the Astros' pitching staff, the Twins will need the hitters who struggled against Toronto to step up. That includes but is not limited to Edouard Julien, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, and Ryan Jeffers. Many in that group could be aided by a short left field wall- especially Julien, Kirilloff, and Jeffers. It didn't matter that this group was poor against Toronto because the Blue Jays only scored one run. That level of run prevention is unlikely to be repeated against an offense of Houston's quality and experience, so the Twins will need a few hitters in this group to step up and help the offense put up closer to five runs per game.
Continue to Make Plays in the Field
The Wild Card Series was an even affair between two good but very even teams. Both teams pitched well, and neither hit much, but the Twins separated themselves from the Blue Jays by playing tremendous defense to steal outs and prevent runs. Carlos Correa was amazing defensively, cutting down Bo Bichette at home after a Jorge Polanco mistake, and in Game 2 leading a pickoff play against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Julien was also solid at second, contrary to his reputation, and Michael A. Taylor made some dazzling plays in center field.
To beat Houston, the Twins will need to not only pitch well and score more runs but also continue to take away runs in the field. As we saw, it can be the difference in tight games. It will be crucial to be exceptional in the field against a far superior offense to Toronto's. Missing a play and giving them a run and an extra out could be disastrous, but taking away a hit or making a heads-up play to steal an out can also boost the pitching staff as they grind against a good offense. Defense could be the separator that gets the Twins to the ALCS and snaps the Astros' six-year streak.
Final Thoughts
Knocking off a dynasty and ending an incredible streak of dominance in the American League will not be easy. But this Astros team isn't as strong as they have been in recent years, so pulling off the upset is possible if the Twins execute defensively and on the bump, and the lineup comes to life against a mediocre pitching staff. Will the Twins do what's needed to come within four wins of their first World Series birth since 1991?
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