Arbitration projections

[DJL44]

From mlbtraderumors.com

Twins (9)

• Caleb Thielbar (5.131): $3MM
• Kyle Farmer (5.129): $6.6MM
• Jordan Luplow (5.025): $1.6MM
• Willi Castro (4.017): $3.2MM
• Jorge Alcala (4.014): $1MM
• Ryan Jeffers (3.089): $2.3MM
• Jose De Leon (3.062): $740K
• Alex Kirilloff (2.141): $1.7MM
• Nick Gordon (2.136): $1MM

[DJL44]

I would tender everyone except Luplow and De Leon. That's a very reasonable price for Farmer.

[jorgenswest]

Agree on Farmer’s price. Based on last year’s comps I expected it to be closer to 8. On the other hand, he is already 33 and they do have some infielders near ready. He could be a tender and like Urshela.

De Leon has a good arm but the cost is the spot on the 40 over the winter before he can be put on the 60 day IL.

[terrydactyls]

What are the numbers in parentheses?

[Puckett34]

18 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

What are the numbers in parentheses?

Service years I'd assume

[chpettit19]

That Farmer number is lower than I expected. That's only a $1 million raise over his salary this year (5.585 mil). If his number really is 6.6 I'd definitely be tempted to tender him and see if there's a trade to be made. Carrying him into the season wouldn't be the end of the world either, but I think he's a guy who's likely to be at the bottom of the 40-man due to his cost and lack of high playing time. 6.6 isn't a lot by any means, but the Twins have a lot of guys who can cover his positions. I don't know if he'll be on the roster on opening day 2024, but if his number really is that low I'd expect them to tender him.

[Major League Ready]

50 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That Farmer number is lower than I expected. That's only a $1 million raise over his salary this year (5.585 mil). If his number really is 6.6 I'd definitely be tempted to tender him and see if there's a trade to be made. Carrying him into the season wouldn't be the end of the world either, but I think he's a guy who's likely to be at the bottom of the 40-man due to his cost and lack of high playing time. 6.6 isn't a lot by any means, but the Twins have a lot of guys who can cover his positions. I don't know if he'll be on the roster on opening day 2024, but if his number really is that low I'd expect them to tender him.

Do you see them keeping both Polanco and Farmer?  That seems to me to be the choice.  The IF starters are going to be Kirilloff / Julien / Lewis and Correa.  I think Farmer fits better especially the way Rocco plays matchups.  He hits LHP better than Polanco so he fits nicely at 2B against LHP.  He can also play 3B if they eventually start playing Lewis in the OF at times against LHP.   

Polanco probably does not have much trade value but I would think someone would give up something for him especially given 2025 is a club option.  He is a 2.5-3 WAR player if he is healthy.  He just does not fit very well here.  

BTW ... If they move Polanco and don't exercise the option, they are at about $125M in payroll.  That would allow them to sign a good starter.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Do you see them keeping both Polanco and Farmer?  That seems to me to be the choice.  The IF starters are going to be Kirilloff / Julien / Lewis and Correa.  I think Farmer fits better especially the way Rocco plays matchups.  He hits LHP better than Polanco so he fits nicely at 2B against LHP.  He can also play 3B if they eventually start playing Lewis in the OF at times against LHP.   

Polanco probably does not have much trade value but I would think someone would give up something for him especially given 2025 is a club option.  He is a 2.5-3 WAR player if he is healthy.  He just does not fit very well here.  

 

I had actually started typing out a paragraph about Polanco, but got distracted by something at work and quit. I'd keep Polanco over Farmer because I think he's the better player and I want all the talent I can get, but I don't think they plan to keep them both. A lot of it depends on what they could get in trade for Polanco. I think he's still one of their better hitters next year so I wouldn't be quick to trade him, but I'd certainly be listening if people called on him.

[Major League Ready]

33 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I had actually started typing out a paragraph about Polanco, but got distracted by something at work and quit. I'd keep Polanco over Farmer because I think he's the better player and I want all the talent I can get, but I don't think they plan to keep them both. A lot of it depends on what they could get in trade for Polanco. I think he's still one of their better hitters next year so I wouldn't be quick to trade him, but I'd certainly be listening if people called on him.

Where does Polanco play against RHP.  Julien is the better option at 2B and Lewis at 3B.  My thinking is that Farmer stays over Polanco because he hits LHP better than Polanco.  Part of this is also how much belief they have in Martin and Miranda.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Where does Polanco play against RHP.  Julien is the better option at 2B and Lewis at 3B.  My thinking is that Farmer stays over Polanco because he hits LHP better than Polanco.  Part of this is also how much belief they have in Martin and Miranda.

2B and Julien DHs. I'm not open to Buxton being a fulltime DH so there should be ABs to be had. They spread their ABs out so much anyways I just want the better player. And, to me, that's Polanco.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I would tender everyone except Luplow and De Leon. That's a very reasonable price for Farmer.

Can’t imagine Farmer’s price going down from ‘23

 

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

From mlbtraderumors.com

Twins (9)

• Caleb Thielbar (5.131): $3MM
• Kyle Farmer (5.129): $6.6MM
• Jordan Luplow (5.025): $1.6MM
• Willi Castro (4.017): $3.2MM
• Jorge Alcala (4.014): $1MM
• Ryan Jeffers (3.089): $2.3MM
• Jose De Leon (3.062): $740K
• Alex Kirilloff (2.141): $1.7MM
• Nick Gordon (2.136): $1MM

……should sign him for up to $7.5M range, particularly if the plan is to have Lee up by June/July and then NOT to pick up Polanco’s option.

Luplow is gone.

Would be surprised if Nick Gordon is around still at Spring Training. They won’t roster him ahead of Castro after how this year went for them. He doesn’t have any options left. ……really like Gordon but Castro displaces him.

DeLeon probably doesn’t get an offer. If so, no raise after lack of availability in ‘23.

Extending Kirilloff in mid-season is a good move if he’s having a decent year.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

From mlbtraderumors.com

Twins (9)

• Caleb Thielbar (5.131): $3MM
• Kyle Farmer (5.129): $6.6MM
• Jordan Luplow (5.025): $1.6MM
• Willi Castro (4.017): $3.2MM
• Jorge Alcala (4.014): $1MM
• Ryan Jeffers (3.089): $2.3MM
• Jose De Leon (3.062): $740K
• Alex Kirilloff (2.141): $1.7MM
• Nick Gordon (2.136): $1MM

Is Taylor on a 2year deal or a FA after the season.

My assumption is that Kepler is a lock to have his option picked up. ………,Polanco, is difficult to let go but he’s physically not right. Lee will be ready mid-year…….Polanco’s salary savings pays for the 6 or 7 arbitration guys we want to keep.

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Where does Polanco play against RHP.  Julien is the better option at 2B and Lewis at 3B.  My thinking is that Farmer stays over Polanco because he hits LHP better than Polanco.

I love Polanco when healthy, especially as a clutch hitter. I just believe he will continue to have years like this where he gets injured. His body is beat up and it really shows on defense. Lee is coming in 2024. We definitely won't keep both Farmer and Polanco.

[Dman]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

That Farmer number is lower than I expected. That's only a $1 million raise over his salary this year (5.585 mil). If his number really is 6.6 I'd definitely be tempted to tender him and see if there's a trade to be made. Carrying him into the season wouldn't be the end of the world either, but I think he's a guy who's likely to be at the bottom of the 40-man due to his cost and lack of high playing time. 6.6 isn't a lot by any means, but the Twins have a lot of guys who can cover his positions. I don't know if he'll be on the roster on opening day 2024, but if his number really is that low I'd expect them to tender him.

Yeah they should hang on to to Farmer. I think he could be a valuable trade chip if they decide to go that route.  FA class looks weak for shortstops so any team(s) looking for depth or a one year gap stop might give up something decent in trade for Farmer.  If they keep him they could try and trade him around the deadline if Lee looks ready.  

[Dman]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I had actually started typing out a paragraph about Polanco, but got distracted by something at work and quit. I'd keep Polanco over Farmer because I think he's the better player and I want all the talent I can get, but I don't think they plan to keep them both. A lot of it depends on what they could get in trade for Polanco. I think he's still one of their better hitters next year so I wouldn't be quick to trade him, but I'd certainly be listening if people called on him.

I feel the same way about Polanco.  They would have to get a valuable arm in trade to move him I would think as when healthy he is an All Star caliber player.  With the Twins moving Celestino off the 40 man it might make it easier to keep both Farmer and Polanco going into the season if no one ponies up for a trade or if they feel the team is just better with them on it.  Hard to say what they do but they appear to be in a good spot depth wise right now.

[DJL44]

It's worth taking a look through the other arbitration eligible players. The Twins like to shop for veterans among the expensive arb players.

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

2B and Julien DHs. I'm not open to Buxton being a fulltime DH so there should be ABs to be had. They spread their ABs out so much anyways I just want the better player. And, to me, that's Polanco.

I don't believe that the Twins' front office cares whether or not you are "open to Buxton being a fulltime DH".  If they prefer Buxton at DH, then that's where he'll be.  I would prefer to see Buxton in CF but his physical problems may prevent that from happening.

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Do you see them keeping both Polanco and Farmer?  That seems to me to be the choice.  The IF starters are going to be Kirilloff / Julien / Lewis and Correa.  I think Farmer fits better especially the way Rocco plays matchups.  He hits LHP better than Polanco so he fits nicely at 2B against LHP.  He can also play 3B if they eventually start playing Lewis in the OF at times against LHP.   

Polanco probably does not have much trade value but I would think someone would give up something for him especially given 2025 is a club option.  He is a 2.5-3 WAR player if he is healthy.  He just does not fit very well here.  

BTW ... If they move Polanco and don't exercise the option, they are at about $125M in payroll.  That would allow them to sign a good starter.

Agree, any team would be lucky to have Farmer or Polanco, but the Twins really don't need both. Heck, by May they might need neither.

But I think it would be harder to make Polanco a bench player given his history on the team. It would probably be in both his and the team's best interest to move him. And based on what the Twins did with Jorge Lopez, I could see them moving him to a place he'd prefer at the expense of a better return.

This is presuming Willie Castro is still an obvious keeper. They've invested the least in him, but he's clearly more versatile, thus a better fit.

[chpettit19]

12 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I don't believe that the Twins' front office cares whether or not you are "open to Buxton being a fulltime DH".  If they prefer Buxton at DH, then that's where he'll be.  I would prefer to see Buxton in CF but his physical problems may prevent that from happening.

Well good thing I didn't say anything about the Twins FO then. I said what I would do.