Twins' Secret Playoff Weapon: Multi-Inning Stretch Relievers Could Be Their Key to Success

[Cody Schoenmann]

The Twins have a niche strength that few teams have the opportunity to utilize. Will they take advantage of it during the postseason?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - USA TODAY Sports

 

The 162-game Major League Baseball regular season is a war of attrition. Having front-end starting pitchers and above-average hitters is crucial, but it is equally essential to succeed on the margins by having a solid bench and fortified back end of the bullpen. As the old saying goes, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. 

While this is true for the regular season, the postseason is an utterly different beast, especially a potential three-game Wild Card series. In contrast to the attrition-like nature of the regular season, the postseason is a flash in the pan where a team's success is contingent on the team's best players performing up to their capabilities in an exceptionally short-lived amount of time.

In recent history, teams who have made deep playoff runs tend to have an exceptionally strong starting pitching rotation mixed with a productive lineup. For example, the 2019 World Series-winning Washington Nationals had aces in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg mixed with complimentary above-average arms in Patrick Corbin and Aníbal Sánchez. If the Nationals didn't have this rotation, they wouldn't have won the World Series, let alone get a postseason bid. 

When looking at the World Series favorites this season, the Atlanta Braves have a theoretically elite three-man rotation consisting of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton, in addition to the best lineup in recent Major League Baseball history. Now, Fried and Morton are currently on the 15-day IL and could miss some time in the postseason, but the point still stands. 

Like the 2023 Braves and 2019 Nationals, the Twins have above-average starting pitching options in Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober and a serviceable lineup. While the Twins' starting pitching is a strength that will likely be the deciding factor in if they can advance deep into the playoffs, they also possess a different and unique strength that has rarely been seen in Major League Baseball regular season or postseason history.

That strength resides in the Twins' impressive group of multi-inning capable stretch relievers.

Headlined by traditional starting pitchers in Louie Varland, Chris Paddack, and Kenta Maeda, the Twins have three multi-inning capable pitchers who could piggyback López, Gray, or Ryan as a bridge to the Twins' high-leverage relief pitchers in Caleb Thielbar, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Emilio Pagán, and closer Jhoan Duran. 

To illustrate how this form of bridging could work, let's look over a hypothetical situation.

In Game One, Pablo López throws four innings and gives up one earned run, and the Twins have a 3-to-1 lead heading into the fifth inning. López has pitched well, but he was struggling in the fourth inning, and it might be in the Twins' best interest to take him out of the game. 

Instead of being forced to use Pagán, Jax, Stewart, and Duran to get through the final four innings, the Twins could instead piggyback López with one of their multi-inning relief pitchers in Varland, Paddack, or Maeda for two or three innings.

Using one of their multi-inning capable stretch relievers in Varland, Paddack, or Maeda benefits the Twins in two ways.

First, using Varland, Paddack, or Maeda in a multi-inning role would allow their high-leverage relief pitchers to be available in more than one or two of the potential three-game Wild Card series. 

Second, Varland and Maeda have proven to be effective out of the bullpen, and it is fair to assume Paddack will be, so using them in a more condensed setting would allow the Twins to maximize Varland, Paddack, and Maeda's velocity and overall stuff. 

It is still being determined whether this is what the Twins will do. Regardless, with Varland working exclusively out of the bullpen, Paddack activated as a reliever from the 60-day IL on Sunday morning, and the Twins announcing Maeda's move to the bullpen on Sunday evening, it appears that this is the plan they are heading toward for at least the potential three-game Wild Card series. 

During the regular season, the Twins used pitchers the likes of Josh Winder, Cole Sands, Brent Headrick, Jordan Balazovic, José De León, and Simeon Woods Richardson as break glass in case of emergency-type stretch relievers who would only be used if the game had become a blowout or if the starting pitcher on that particular day needed to be pulled early either due to health or poor performance.

While this mold of stretch reliever worked during the regular season, the Twins look to be drastically changing the purpose of this type of pitcher, and the timing couldn't be more advantageous.

What do you think of the Twins multi-inning capable stretch relievers? Should the Twins prioritize using them during the Wild Card round? Comment below.

 

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[Logi_Clevs]

I think - like you stated in the article - the pitching will be fine. I think the starters will be ready and the Twins will have great options if they do need to be pulled after 4 or so innings. Now, that doesn't mean the starters should have a very short leash, but obviously shorter than they would in the regular season. The last thing I want to see is Pablo to slightly struggle in the 3rd, deal in the 4th, then get pulled after the inning with 60 pitches when he could have gone another 2 innings. I know we like to talk bad about the pitching decisions the coaches make, but in reality hindsight is 20/20 and it would be an impossible decision for any one of us to make. 

My biggest concern is putting runs on the board. Yes, it would be great if the arms only give up 1 to 3 runs, but it won't mean anything if the offense cannot produce. 

[strumdatjag]

Absent an injury, is there a place for Dallas Keuchel or Kody Funderburk??. 

[Brandon]

We definitely won’t be seeing a 10 inning game 7 of the World Series shutout this time against the Braves by our starting pitcher…..

[Cody Schoenmann]

23 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

Absent an injury, is there a place for Dallas Keuchel or Kody Funderburk??. 

I don't think Keuchel will make the postseason roster. I believe Funderburk will, but he will be used as a short reliever.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, Logi_Clevs said:

I think - like you stated in the article - the pitching will be fine. I think the starters will be ready and the Twins will have great options if they do need to be pulled after 4 or so innings. Now, that doesn't mean the starters should have a very short leash, but obviously shorter than they would in the regular season. The last thing I want to see is Pablo to slightly struggle in the 3rd, deal in the 4th, then get pulled after the inning with 60 pitches when he could have gone another 2 innings. I know we like to talk bad about the pitching decisions the coaches make, but in reality hindsight is 20/20 and it would be an impossible decision for any one of us to make. 

My biggest concern is putting runs on the board. Yes, it would be great if the arms only give up 1 to 3 runs, but it won't mean anything if the offense cannot produce. 

I think López and Gray will be able to produce quality starts in their appearances and I think the offense will be fine. My greatest concern is the bullpen. If the Twins find themselves holding a one or two run lead past the seventh inning I will be very nervous. I think Pagán, Thielbar, Jax, Stewart, and Duran have the ability to hold leads but bullpens are extremely volatile, especially during the postseason, so we will just have to hold on an enjoy the ride lol.

[JD-TWINS]

29 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

Absent an injury, is there a place for Dallas Keuchel or Kody Funderburk??. 

I think Funderburk may be chosen instead of Paddack. Paddack gave up 3 runs in 2 innings - the ONLY 2 innings he’s pitched all year. Maybe room for both of them in short series/WC round but not in other series. In short series they don’t need to roster Ober.

Kuechel is a real stretch!

Probable Staff……12 guys

Pen:

Jax - Pagan - Thielbar - Duran - Varland - Funderburk - Stewart - Maeda  - Paddack

Starters:

Lopez - Gray - Ryan

[GKuehl]

We often see Sonny falter a bit in the 5th or 6th inning, usually the third time through the order. If he doesn't have his best stuff, I would love to see Varland get the call in the 5th or 6th inning at the first sign of trouble. 

[Jocko87]

I was advocating for stocking the bullpen as much as possible at the trade deadline so they could try to pitch their way through but this isn't exactly what I envisioned. It is turning into a viable option it appears.

It's seems Varland, Maeda and Paddack can really sew up the middle innings in multiple games. If a starter manages 6 the game gets really short quickly. Even 5 from the starter works well. Then play match ups to get to Duran. It might just work.

There will be a certain number of innings that need pitched regardless, if they can get two at a time from a section of the pen they might have something of an advantage.

[Jocko87]

I will also be curious going through the off-season as details come available how much of this was the plan vs backdooring a flush draw.

I like it as a strategy given the personnel available but they wouldn't tell us if it was a plan ahead of time as it's fairly unique.

[Doctor Gast]

I surely hope they finally get off their relying too heavily on short relief which has been their down fall by over stretching them which also results in over stretching their rotation. I really believe this contributed to bad seasons & the 18 consecutive post season losses when we had potentially successful teams. I totally agree with you Cody that incorporating long relief is the key to a prosperous pitching staff. If the Twins comes through & agree with our philosophy, we will break that losing streak & progress.

[RaoulDuke]

Shifting starters to relief is a nice luxury to have.  The pen still worries me the most out of anything in the playoffs though. 

They need Stewart to be the beast he was before injury, Jax/ Pagan/ Thielbar all have question marks and don't inspire great confidence as a bridge to Duran.

Varland has looked very good letting it fly for an inning, Maeda has a track record of success doing so as well.  I would expect them to be used in that setup mix and not necessarily as long guys. 

Duran/ Stewart is your big 2 then Thielbar/ Pagan/ Varland/ Jax are your one inning guys. Maeda is a hybrid, Paddack is the long guy and Funderburk is the mop up or early loogy.

[Oldgoat_MN]

10 hours ago, Brandon said:

We definitely won’t be seeing a 10 inning game 7 of the World Series shutout this time against the Braves by our starting pitcher…..

I wonder what percentage of today's managers would have lost game 7 for the Twins. 

Unless the bullpen was nearly perfect, I'd guess nearly all of them. 

[Karbo]

As I understand it, the Manfred Man won't be used in the play offs, so there will need to be someone like maybe Ober in case the game goes to extra innings. IMO that should be an advantage also.

[Doctor Wu]

I'm still wondering how "probable" it is that Paddack will be in the bullpen for the playoffs? Great story to have him coming back and pitching again ... but it's only been one game and a handful of innings thus far. Not sure if I feel comfortable having him on the playoff roster or not. 

[saviking]

19 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I think Funderburk may be chosen instead of Paddack. Paddack gave up 3 runs in 2 innings - the ONLY 2 innings he’s pitched all year. Maybe room for both of them in short series/WC round but not in other series. In short series they don’t need to roster Ober.

Kuechel is a real stretch!

Probable Staff……12 guys

Pen:

Jax - Pagan - Thielbar - Duran - Varland - Funderburk - Stewart - Maeda  - Paddack

Starters:

Lopez - Gray - Ryan

I agree on Funderburk but would much rather have Iber over Paddock. A solid battle tested pitcher than a player that is finding his way back from Surgery. In fact I would love to see Ryan and Ober each pitching 4 innings in game three.

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, saviking said:

I agree on Funderburk but would much rather have Iber over Paddock. A solid battle tested pitcher than a player that is finding his way back from Surgery. In fact I would love to see Ryan and Ober each pitching 4 innings in game three.

Then who starts game one of the next round?

[saviking]

17 hours ago, Brandon said:

Then who starts game one of the next round?

Well, if there us not a travel day after game three then you have a point.