How Many Innings Will Twins Starters Get in the Postseason?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins are ready for the playoffs and will kick off their action on October 3rd. Their opponent is not yet known, and while the rotation isn’t set, we have a good idea of the candidates. How will Rocco Baldelli use them though?

 

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins are looking towards the playoffs and will kick off their action on October 3rd. Their opponent is unknown, and while the rotation isn't set, we have a good idea of the candidates. How will Rocco Baldelli use them?

One of the most common refrains regarding complaints directed toward Twins manager Rocco Baldelli is that he pulls starters too early. That has never been the case and was exaggerated a year ago because he had poor starters like Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and others. Now, with an elite group of arms, no team in baseball has gotten more innings from their starters than Minnesota.

Knowing that Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez will be the first two starters of the short three-game series, the only decision Baldelli has to make is who will be called upon in a winner-take-all Game 3. It would seem likely that the options come down to either Kenta Maeda or Joe Ryan, with the former being an ideal candidate to move into the bullpen.

Considering Gray and Lopez, Minnesota should have a relatively reliable pair of arms to start against any opponent in a three, five, or seven-game series. Gray has looked the part of a Cy Young contender for most of the year and is challenging for the best ERA in the American League. 

Through his first 29 starts, Gray is averaging just shy of six innings per start. That reflects his performance against the opposition as he gets deeper in a game. He gave up a .574 OPS in the fifth inning, which jumped to .678 in the sixth inning, and while he hasn't pitched much in the seventh, his OPS balloons to .934 in that frame.

He worked roughly 20 more innings than Gray, although, with an extra start to his credit, Lopez has averaged just over six innings per start. He has gone at least seven innings in eight starts and has a complete game to his credit. The sixth inning, allowing an .800 OPS, has been the worst this season for Lopez. If he makes it through, though, he owns just a .519 OPS against in the seventh and a .444 OPS in the game's final three frames.

With every game taking on such a heightened importance in the playoffs, Baldelli will undoubtedly have someone constantly in mind to take over. Gray and Lopez should be expected to give the Twins five innings during their first starts. If either fails to make it that far, immediately going to someone like Maeda or Bailey Ober (should he make the roster) would make sense.

The plan on paper should be for Gray and Lopez to be given six innings. Gray becomes much more touch-and-go from there, and it isn't worthwhile to push for individual accomplishment in the playoffs. Lopez could be stretched to seven innings, but his usage will likely reflect how Game 1 goes (assuming Gray makes that start).

Although the Twins bullpen has a questionable underbelly, they should feel confident in arms needing to get outs from the sixth inning. Jhoan Duran is the closer but could be inserted as a fireman whenever the situation dictates that it is most necessary. Griffin Jax has been awful since the All-Star Break but still possesses the stuff to get big outs.

Beyond the two notable leverage arms, Minnesota will give Brock Stewart back his late-inning role if he can continue to show he is healthy. Stewart was among the Twins best relievers in the first half, and facing his stuff late is no easy task for the opposition. Caleb Thielbar often comes in against lefties, but he's far more than the traditional LOOGY type.

With the Wild Card round being just a three-game series, the first tilt should dictate many decisions. It isn't easy to assume that even your best relievers will be utilized in three straight games, as all the action happens on consecutive days. Baldelli will hope for his rotation, which has carried the team, to highlight why this group could be built for October.

The last time Minnesota made the postseason, Maeda and Jose Berrios went five innings, with the bullpen picking up the rest. I can't see a scenario in which either Gray or Lopez are penciled in to throw that little, but the lineup providing breathing room will also help push the envelope.

Baldelli had quick hooks with bad pitchers. He shouldn't have any bad pitchers throwing this postseason, and they'll be given ample opportunity to eat outs.

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think that they go six unless they get in big trouble before that.  I agree that Lopez might be more able to push that than Gray.  If either Maeda or Ryan (whoever starts) is the starter for the third game, they might be slightly less likely to go six, but not much.  If either of them are truly on, they can be just as dominating to the lineups in front of them. 

If the Twins lose the first game, I think all bets are off as to usage.  Then the second game becomes a desperation game, so everyone gets the quick hook in the event of trouble.  If you lose that game too, there is no tomorrow to save your pitchers for. 

If we can score some runs, I'm pretty confident about the series. 

 

[Karbo]

The writer assumes Gray will get the 1st game but I think it will be Lopez. I'm hoping there is no 3rd game and the top 2 will take care of business. Then they can set up the rotation for the next game 1! I'm nit sure if Ober or Maeda slots into the 4 hole. Earlier I was thinking Ober, but Maeda has been pitching better than him lately. So Maeda in the pen round 1, and a starter in round 2?

[PDX Twin]

Aren't we required to start Randy Dobnak in Game #2???

🙂

[IndianaTwin]

49 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

Aren't we required to start Randy Dobnak in Game #2???

🙂

I read that he did set a Saints record for strikeouts!

[rwilfong86]

I'm thinking at least 6. 

[IndianaTwin]

I don't think the plan on paper will be to give anyone x number of innings. Playoff stakes are such that pitchers by definition have a shorter hook than in the regular season. There's no real protecting the bullpen for tomorrow. There's no point to saying, "But we wanted to get xxxx at least x innings. Additionally, plan to see next Sunday's game thrown by Keuchel and any players currently on the roster who won't be on the postseason roster, so everyone in the bullpen will be fully rested.

From the beginning, the question will always be, "Does my current pitcher give me a better chance of getting outs than the reliever I'd most likely go to?" If that means that Gray is at all off, even as early as the third, with one of Maeda/Gray/Ober available, it will be a quick hook.   

 

[USAFChief]

I'm guessing Twins starters will work ... 114 innings in the postseason. 

[old nurse]

Pitch count will determine how many innings they pitch. They rarely let them go over 100 for a game. They should get through 6. If all is going well. 7 with efficiency. Less if it is hammered time  Hopefully it is hammer time. Can’t touch this.

[Fatbat]

Based on OPS, unless Gray has a low pitch count and is cruising with a decent lead of 3 or more runs ahead, he will not see a 7th inning. Lopez likely wont see an 8th inning unless he has a shutout going and low pitch count. We got the best pitching available in decades, the boys need to pound out huge run support tho. 

[MGM4706]

Jax? How can you even mention him and not Varland? Have you been watching games?