Where will Jenkins and Soto rank?

[Major League Ready]

Is Jenkins our #1 prospect or has Lee done enough to retain that rank?  Rodriguez batting under 200 with a lot of swing and miss does not do much for his case.  Soto top 10?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Is Jenkins our #1 prospect or has Lee done enough to retain that rank?  Rodriguez batting under 200 with a lot of swing and miss does not do much for his case.  Soto top 10?

I would say Jenkins # 1, Lee #2, Soto top 10. 

[DJL44]

Jenkins #2, Soto 10-15 range, he's behind Festa and Raya for me but probably ahead of the injured Prielipp and Canterino.

Jenkins and Lee have similar ceiling but Lee has the higher floor.

[2wins87]

I think I would put Jenkins 1st.  It could be premature if he struggles a bit out of the gate, but if he does do well in his first taste of professional ball I think everyone will have him first.

I would be tempted to have Soto as the top pitching prospect.  He's got a frame and velocity reminiscent of Duran and lots of time to hopefully develop into a starter.  For the time being I think I will slot him 7th, behind Raya and Festa and ahead of Prielipp and Martin.

Keaschall and Winokur are probably both in my top 20.  The system is quite deep right now but doesn't seem to have a ton of potential high impact guys.

[Mike Sixel]

FWIW, Fangraphs has Lee a 55 and Jenkins a 50.....

I'd put Jenkins 2nd easily. 

They only have Soto a 40.....so, 18th overall. I think they are clearly low on him, and I'm guessing the Twins have him in the 45 or 45+ range. 

The Twins system is DEEP in 40-45_ guys......according to FG.

[gunnarthor]

Lee is #1 and Jenkins #2. Soto has potential but right now, today, he's a 17 year old kid with upside. Not really sure how that will be measured. Just looking at pipeline's Twins prospects, I think somewhere outside the top 10? 

[2wins87]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

FWIW, Fangraphs has Lee a 55 and Jenkins a 50.....

I'd put Jenkins 2nd easily. 

They only have Soto a 40.....so, 18th overall. I think they are clearly low on him, and I'm guessing the Twins have him in the 45 or 45+ range. 

The Twins system is DEEP in 40-45_ guys......according to FG.

MLBPipeline are slightly more generous graders but they have Lee a 55 and Jenkins a 60.

They have Soto as a 50 which puts him in the Twins' 3-6 range pre-draft.

I'm a fan of Longenhagen's work, but honestly it seemed like he got way behind on the prospect lists this year and I don't know how much time he really had to really properly evaluate the draft, so I tend to go a little more with the other outlets this year.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, 2wins87 said:

MLBPipeline are slightly more generous graders but they have Lee a 55 and Jenkins a 60.

They have Soto as a 50 which puts him in the Twins' 3-6 range pre-draft.

I'm a fan of Longenhagen's work, but honestly it seemed like he got way behind on the prospect lists this year and I don't know how much time he really had to really properly evaluate the draft, so I tend to go a little more with the other outlets this year.

I think that's fair. If Jenkins is a 60 and Soto a 50, that's an amazing draft just with the top two picks.

I haven't looked at the other sites in detail....

[2wins87]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think that's fair. If Jenkins is a 60 and Soto a 50, that's an amazing draft just with the top two picks.

I haven't looked at the other sites in detail....

I think MLB's 50s are more like 45+ or even 45 on Fangraphs.  They are at least self-consistent though so they would appear to be much higher on the draft picks vs the Twins' current list than Fangraphs is.

[Steve Lein]

Jenkins #1 for me, for sure. 

Soto probably in the 10-15 range out of the gate.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Here is my rough top 21. Probably missing something but decent idea.  

1. Lee

2. Jenkins

3. Soto

4. Raya

5. Wallner

6. Varland

7. Winkur

8. Schobel 

9. Keaschall

10. E Rod

11. SWR 

12. Martin 

13. Hall 

14. Qustad

15. Priellip

16. Festa

17. Williams

18. Enlow

19.  Dunn

20. Lewis

21. Cossetti

 

[Mike Sixel]

Hard not to have Varland higher, given he's already had success in MLB.....but I get it.

Martin > SWR for sure for me.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Hard not to have Varland higher, given he's already had success in MLB.....but I get it.

Martin > SWR for sure for me.

Martin and SWR both seem to be enigmas.  Martin is struggling since coming back.  The only thing separating is Martin had a hell of a a fall ball last year.   

Varland could be #3.  I think the only thing holding him back is his ceiling of at best likely be a #3 or #4 starter.  Priellip is the one I struggled with,  could be 7 to 8 could be in the 15-20 range.  If healthy and performing a top 5 prospect.  Really hard to project.  

[Twins33]

Lee over Jenkins. Soto in the back half of the top 10

[RJA]

I would go Jenkins over Lee.  In an ordinary draft year, Jenkins might well have been a number 1 pick.  I think his potential as a 5 tool player separates him from Lee as Lee will never have 30 homer power.  Is Prielipp undergoing another TJ?

[Walser]

On 7/11/2023 at 10:41 AM, DJL44 said:

Jenkins and Lee have similar ceiling but Lee has the higher floor.

I'd say Jenkins has the higher ceiling as a five-tool player but I agree Lee has the higher floor.

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, Walser said:

I'd say Jenkins has the higher ceiling as a five-tool player but I agree Lee has the higher floor.

I hesitate to call someone who projects as a corner outfielder a "five tool" player. If he had plus speed he would profile in centerfield. I think they're both plus athletes with All-Star potential.

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs has Jenkins 81 overall.....I doubt they've really updated the overall board though, so that might go up or down slightly....

[Walser]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I hesitate to call someone who projects as a corner outfielder a "five tool" player. If he had plus speed he would profile in centerfield. I think they're both plus athletes with All-Star potential.

Mookie Betts is a five-tool player who has played most of his career in right field, and as of now all five of Jenkins' tools are graded as above MLB average. Keith Law even said Jenkins could turn out to be the best player in this draft class. It wouldn't be surprising if Lee ended up being the better player as he's already proven himself at higher levels, but we're just discussing potential and I think Jenkins has more of that with his hit-power combo and strong arm.

[tony&rodney]

Lee was the most accomplished bat coming out of college last year. He was written up (near consensus) as having a high floor, making MLB for sure at some point and likely to be a solid regular starter but not an all star. We have seen the strengths and limits of Lee in AA this season. He is having a very good year but not really drawing any attention or standing out. I expect Lee to put on a Twins uniform by the close of 2024. The excitement about Emmanuel Rodriguez pushing into the top ten prospect has dimmed considerably as he learns baseball. I'm still on E-Rod but he needs to make some adjustments.

Jenkins (again consensus) was tabbed as a one of the clear top five in the recently completed draft. The LSU boys and Langford were coming off of putting on a show at the CWS in Omaha, thus they pretty much claimed their spots above Jenkins. Nobody would have been too surprised if Jenkins had gone #1, and he would have last year. Jenkins has a long haul before he can prove himself worthy of an MLB jersey, but his ceiling is a superstar. I'm thinking he will get put somewhere in the top 100 prospect lists before he takes his first professional at bat. I'm putting him at #1 among Twins prospects right away and getting my hopes up.

I guess we shall see how accurate the scouts are about this 2023 group. The year of raving is over now. Will the hype be real?

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Lee was the most accomplished bat coming out of college last year. He was written up (near consensus) as having a high floor, making MLB for sure at some point and likely to be a solid regular starter but not an all star. We have seen the strengths and limits of Lee in AA this season. He is having a very good year but not really drawing any attention or standing out. I expect Lee to put on a Twins uniform by the close of 2024. The excitement about Emmanuel Rodriguez pushing into the top ten prospect has dimmed considerably as he learns baseball. I'm still on E-Rod but he needs to make some adjustments.

Jenkins (again consensus) was tabbed as a one of the clear top five in the recently completed draft. The LSU boys and Langford were coming off of putting on a show at the CWS in Omaha, thus they pretty much claimed their spots above Jenkins. Nobody would have been too surprised if Jenkins had gone #1, and he would have last year. Jenkins has a long haul before he can prove himself worthy of an MLB jersey, but his ceiling is a superstar. I'm thinking he will get put somewhere in the top 100 prospect lists before he takes his first professional at bat. I'm putting him at #1 among Twins prospects right away and getting my hopes up.

I guess we shall see how accurate the scouts are about this 2023 group. The year of raving is over now. Will the hype be real?

In less than 1 year we've seen the limits of a player......wow.

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

In less than 1 year we've seen the limits of a player......wow.

Maybe "limits" should be edited in favor of "limitations". In any event, this was a discussion of whether Lee or Jenkins should be rated as the top Twins prospect, thus there was zero intention to diss the talents of Brooks Lee. I only wished to point out that Jenkins has had scouts and prospect writers indicate a far higher ceiling than Lee. If you have watched (via milb.com for me) Lee play several dozen times, he looks really solid, but unspectacular (not a burner or quick twitch athlete like Lewis). I think Lee starts in the infield full time by 2025 and maybe earlier. I'm a big believer in Brooks Lee. I hope Walker Jenkins becomes a perennial starter in the All Star Game.