2023 Twins 10-round Mock Draft

[Seth Stohs]

I like how we all think that a consensus top 12 pick is just a terrible pick. It's the MLB draft, the guys projected to go at the top aren't all success stories, and overlooked players are in every draft. 1.) Gonzalez could become a better MLB player than any of those top 5 cuz that's just how baseball works, and 2.) to be able to acquire 2-3 players that rank higher than normal slot value guys might prove valuable too. I like the strategy a lot. If Sean Johnson and the Twins cross-checkers and the area scout aren't convicted that Jenkins (or whoever is left) is going to be a great player, then they should take someone else and work the system. 

[twinkiesfan11]

15 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

I honestly thought Jenkins sounded like exactly who the Twins would want. But he was born with hip issues and, despite having surgery, it's conceivable that they've red-flagged him. That would change the narrative, right? (I would love to get @Lucas Seehafer PT take on this.)

 

I thought I was picking up on that this week too. Between several of the mock drafts, draft articles, Doogies scoops and the Sean Johnson interviews, sure seems like it may actually be a top 4 (Crews, Skenes, Langford, Clark) with Jenkins stock falling?

If there are medical red flags I think the Twins need to pass…The last thing this organization needs is another injury prone prospect 

[jishfish]

41 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

Jenkins is also repped by Boras, I've heard... but pushing him past the Rangers, who have a smaller bonus pool, to the Twins does make a little bit of sense. I actually posted a similar idea on Twitter a few days ago. I think you're looking at a 1% chance, but... I guess I'm saying there's a chance!

Great minds think alike I suppose! Like you said, probably a 1% chance, if that. But as much as this FO gets hated on (sometimes rightfully so), this is the kind of move I could 100% see them attempt to make behind the scenes.

I do think if Clark goes #1 as some are speculating, one of the college guys is getting to #5. That difference in bonus pools is huge between Texas and Minnesota, and I have to imagine it's Crews/Langford then a massive drop on the Twins draft board.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

I like how we all think that a consensus top 12 pick is just a terrible pick. It's the MLB draft, the guys projected to go at the top aren't all success stories, and overlooked players are in every draft. 1.) Gonzalez could become a better MLB player than any of those top 5 cuz that's just how baseball works, and 2.) to be able to acquire 2-3 players that rank higher than normal slot value guys might prove valuable too. I like the strategy a lot. If Sean Johnson and the Twins cross-checkers and the area scout aren't convicted that Jenkins (or whoever is left) is going to be a great player, then they should take someone else and work the system. 

 What's your opinion on the actual player? Is it what you want?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

I like how we all think that a consensus top 12 pick is just a terrible pick. It's the MLB draft, the guys projected to go at the top aren't all success stories, and overlooked players are in every draft. 1.) Gonzalez could become a better MLB player than any of those top 5 cuz that's just how baseball works, and 2.) to be able to acquire 2-3 players that rank higher than normal slot value guys might prove valuable too. I like the strategy a lot. If Sean Johnson and the Twins cross-checkers and the area scout aren't convicted that Jenkins (or whoever is left) is going to be a great player, then they should take someone else and work the system. 

Also, can you find one site updated in the last two weeks that has him top 12?

CBS has him 21 and FG in the 30s..... He's not anywhere near top ten right now. 

[Mike Sixel]

Fox had him 11, but I can't find the time they updated.....

[terrydactyls]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't get your first line? It is awfully appeal to authority and basically says that 90% of what this site is for is not right? 

Outside maybe three people here, I doubt anyone has scouted these guys....

I don't get your second line.  

"Awfully appeal to authority"?

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I don't get your second line.  

"Awfully appeal to authority"?

Look up appeal to authority. 

Seth also uses it.... Seems like an owner of this site would encourage conversation, but what do I know?

[terrydactyls]

How many of you would like to see MLB get rid of the rule prohibiting trading draft picks?  It would be a much cleaner draft if the Twins could trade the #5 pick for a somewhat lower first round pick and a top 4 prospect (or a good young player already in the majors).

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

How many of you would like to see MLB get rid of the rule prohibiting trading draft picks?  It would be a much cleaner draft if the Twins could trade the #5 pick for a somewhat lower first round pick and a top 4 prospect (or a good young player already in the majors).

I would bet every fan wants this! 

It would also speed up how fast bad teams get better, as I'd bet good teams send out a lot of 2nd round picks for current MLB players as rentals. 

[Rigby]

7 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Wow, I'd love to read everyone's scouting notes from all the times they've seen Gonzalez and the dozen or so other players that they are so confident are better than him.

 

Actually I have seen Gonzalez quite a bit. Sorry, didn't take notes. Nice player but not a chance in hell I take him at 5.

[DocBauer]

Already stated my opinion earlier, but felt a need to add based on further conversation. 

You don't draft in the 1st round, especially at #5, just for need. You draft best player available. But even IF you draft an under slot player, you should:

A] Grab the best UPSIDE player in that under slot spot

B] BECAUSE you are deciding to select someone under slot, it's OK, IMO, to then examine organizational need. In other words, the upside of Teel, or one of the best arms, college or HS.

Nothing against Gonzalez personally, or professionally, but the UPSIDE doesn't seem to be there from everything I've read. (Like I actually KNOW anything). He has, potentially, a great hit and contact tool. But he has no speed, limited power, and questions about sticking at SS. Not enough power for 3B, so he's maybe a 2B with a great hit tool? Do we need more 2B options?

Not every prospect turns out. And draftees, including Gonzalez, can grow and improve. But right now, even with questions about Polanco's future, Julien is an obvious option there. Lee or Lewis might figure at 2B. Severino might fit there. How about Schobel...raking at A+ and probably ready for AA...also as an interesting option at 2B. 

Not saying Gonzalez will be a bad player at all. But he doesn't fit an organizational need at #5 as an under slot pick! Teel, one of many available top 10-12 arms just makes much more sense, with the UPSIDE you still want.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think Teel saves you a penny at this point.

[SteveLV]

I am intrigued by the skullduggery suggesting that the Pirates take Clark (local kid) and try and save some money for later picks and then the Twins talk to Boras who informs those picking 2-4 that it will take $10M plus to sign Crews so he gets passed down to our team.  That would be pretty wild and exciting.

Chances of this happening?  Less than 1%.

But I also would have pegged the chances of Lee dropping to the Twins last year as under 5%, so who knows?

[weitz41]

I wanted to say that I like a lot of your choices after the 2nd round.

I'm not big on Gonzeles at 5, like many others. If there's a bunch of pool money saved to keep some HS players from going to college with the comp pick, 2nd rounder or later rounds, I can live with it. With the depth of this draft there is an opportunity to have a farm changing draft class. The bonus pool money is the way to pull that off.

Otherwise, keep it simple.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

15 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

How many of you would like to see MLB get rid of the rule prohibiting trading draft picks?  It would be a much cleaner draft if the Twins could trade the #5 pick for a somewhat lower first round pick and a top 4 prospect (or a good young player already in the majors).

In the simplest form, yes I would like to see MLB allowing teams to trade draft picks.

But without really tight rules in place, it would be a disaster. Agents already manipulate players going to certain teams. (Absolutely what Boras is doing with Crews.) Could you imagine how this would play out if the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers or Padres could just trade into the Top 5? There's a reason they have access to the least amount of pool money and that's to keep it from happening.

Do you also allow future picks to be traded? That's how teams move up in other drafts. But that would be super difficult to do when teams could lose their pick (or have the pick drop).

The whole idea is just too complex right now.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

In the simplest form, yes I would like to see MLB allowing teams to trade draft picks.

But without really tight rules in place, it would be a disaster. Agents already manipulate players going to certain teams. (Absolutely what Boras is doing with Crews.) Could you imagine how this would play out if the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers or Padres could just trade into the Top 5? There's a reason they have access to the least amount of pool money and that's to keep it from happening.

Do you also allow future picks to be traded? That's how teams m that everyove up in other drafts. But that would be super difficult to do when teams could lose their pick (or have the pick drop).

The whole idea is just too complex right now.

Weird that every other sport has figured out this complex issue....

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

19 hours ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

I honestly thought Jenkins sounded like exactly who the Twins would want. But he was born with hip issues and, despite having surgery, it's conceivable that they've red-flagged him

Being born with hip dysplasia is fairly common and can be corrected with bracing if caught at a young enough age. If caught later then doctors usually go the surgical route. I'm not aware of any research that has looked at the impact of hip dysplasia on athletic performance and longevity, but I'd be pretty surprised if was any more a hindrance than any other factor. I'm biased because I tend to favor the athlete and their performance and not ding them for past injuries/conditions, so unless the kid's hips are literally missing, it would stop me from drafting him. The MLB draft is such a crap shoot anyway, you may as well simply take the best talent and let the chips fall where they may.

[2wins87]

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't get your first line? It is awfully appeal to authority and basically says that 90% of what this site is for is not right? 

Outside maybe three people here, I doubt anyone has scouted these guys....

Right, no one has scouted them so isn't forming a super strong opinion on them based on what a couple writers say also just an appeal to a different authority?

I'm not saying the Twins are right; I don't know if there is much evidence that their draft model is very good compared to other teams. The public consensus probably misses on players just as often as any individual team though, except for maybe a couple of really poor drafting teams.

I'd rather debate overall strategy than individual players in the draft, but of course people can express strong opinions on individual players on a forum. My opinion is that calling a single pick--that hasn't even happened--grounds for termination is just kind of silly.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, 2wins87 said:

Right, no one has scouted them so isn't forming a super strong opinion on them based on what a couple writers say also just an appeal to a different authority?

I'm not saying the Twins are right; I don't know if there is much evidence that their draft model is very good compared to other teams. The public consensus probably misses on players just as often as any individual team though, except for maybe a couple of really poor drafting teams.

I'd rather debate overall strategy than individual players in the draft, but of course people can express strong opinions on individual players on a forum. My opinion is that calling a single pick--that hasn't even happened--grounds for termination is just kind of silly.

If we only had one data point, it would be silly. And, I don't know, maybe that was clearly an exaggeration? No one gets fired during a draft.....

[2wins87]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If we only had one data point, it would be silly. And, I don't know, maybe that was clearly an exaggeration? No one gets fired during a draft.....

But how many data points and differing opinions go into creating a single team's draft board? The Twins' internal draft board is also a consensus, probably based on a larger number of voices and data points that the public one.

A consensus can still be wrong if it's based on a bad process, but I don't think the public consensus should really be treated as a higher authority than a single team's draft board. I do think there are probably a bunch of teams that have a better process/inputs than the Twins do. I'm ambivalent on whether the public consensus is any better.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

But how many data points and differing opinions go into creating a single team's draft board? The Twins' internal draft board is also a consensus, probably based on a larger number of voices and data points that the public one.

A consensus can still be wrong if it's based on a bad process, but I don't think the public consensus should really be treated as a higher authority than a single team's draft board. I do think there are probably a bunch of teams that have a better process/inputs than the Twins do. I'm ambivalent on whether the public consensus is any better.

I'm talking about the overall performance of the FO for seven years. That's the data, not this draft board.....

[twins_89]

I have absolutely no faith in Falvey being smarter than the universal consensus at #5. Just make the glaringly obvious pick and be happy that you have a chance to draft an elite level prospect.

[2wins87]

5 minutes ago, twins_89 said:

I have absolutely no faith in Falvey being smarter than the universal consensus at #5. Just make the glaringly obvious pick and be happy that you have a chance to draft an elite level prospect.

Falvey doesn't make draft picks, Sean Johnson does

[TopGunn#22]

I don't think the hip issue is that big a deal for Jenkins and I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night!!  I like that he's a high character player who is athletic and can HIT.  If we have to choose between Clark and Jenkins, I lean Clark because he's a pure CF.  

If we have our choice of college OF bats Crews or Langford the Twins have won the lottery  (literally).  I just don't want to see a guy picked for "under slot" reasons when we have over $14 million to work with.  If Noble Meyer is there at #34 and we have picked Crews at #5 we can still afford Meyer.  And all of us on TD will be happy as can be.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Roll the dice and keep what you draft.

[AlwaysinModeration]

8 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I don't think the hip issue is that big a deal for Jenkins and I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night!!  I like that he's a high character player who is athletic and can HIT.  If we have to choose between Clark and Jenkins, I lean Clark because he's a pure CF.  

If we have our choice of college OF bats Crews or Langford the Twins have won the lottery  (literally).  I just don't want to see a guy picked for "under slot" reasons when we have over $14 million to work with.  If Noble Meyer is there at #34 and we have picked Crews at #5 we can still afford Meyer.  And all of us on TD will be happy as can be.

I’m Pollyannaer than most, and even I can’t come up with a scenario that nets the Twins Crews and Meyer.