Twins Should Extend Tyler Mahle

[wabene]

25 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm a no on this one. The concept has worked for the Twins before, but the price tag it would take to keep Mahle in the fold isn't going to be cheap and he's been unavailable too much to feel confident about him having a clean recovery from TJ. There's another price that you have to pay when you make a deal like this too: the 40-man roster spot. While teams usually have several fringe players on their 40-man by the end of a season that can get dropped, right now with the Twins farm system depth they're going to be tighter up against it when it comes to protecting prospects from the Rule 5 draft. Injured players can't get moved to the 60-day list and exempted from the 40-man until the start of the season after the Rule 5, so you're also potentially costing yourself a player that way as well.

The trade busted. It was a reasonable move at the time (I still think the only one we'll truly regret losing is CES, but YMMV) but it crapped out because Mahle got hurt in both seasons. That sucks for the Twins (especially because Mahle could have been a difference-maker last season in holding the rotation together) but in this case you're throwing good money after bad in trying to find a way to extract value from this one. Move on.

I'm sold. I was playing checkers while Mr Lease was playing chess, bravo. 

[Major League Ready]

Mahle has had one season where he resembled a top of the rotation arm.   It's a problem if they can't replace Mahle from within between Raya / Prelipp / Festa / SWR and perhaps even Canterino.  At this stage in the building process, they need to aim higher in free agency.    The best use of available funds might turn out to be an impact bat and/or back of the BP additions.

[Otaknam]

A Mahle extension saves face for the FO. They don’t have to admit that the trade was terrible because Mahle would be back sometime in 2024. 

[Blyleven2011]

I'd say alittle to early to be talking about an extention  ,

Let's see how Ober and varland  perform  over the long season  before thinking of an extention for mahle   , yes you can never have to much pitching  but an injured pitcher is worthless  ...

[USAFChief]

No. 

Any decent GM should be able to find better use for that kind of cash over the next 2 seasons than the possibility of one season from Mahle.

Fill some holes rather than pay for rehab. Start with next year's bullpen.

[John Belinski]

Don't keep throwing good money away on a bad choice. The Twins have already thrown good money away on Paddock who may never pitch again. Go with the young pitchers instead of throwing money away on pitchers that may never help you be a winning team.

[DJL44]

Check in on him next March and make a decision then if he's available.

[PatPfund]

Let's recap. Mahle was not having a good year last year, got Cincy a nice package based on previous good years (something I never considered a Twins "win", but a worthy gamble). Then he hurt his shoulder and missed most of the second half. Then he tore up his elbow. So, if the price is 5 and 15, absolutely not. Spend $15 million on a healthy arm next year (or $20 since that's what you'd sink on Mahle).

[Cody Schoenmann]

10 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

I like Cody's idea of loading up Tyler Mahle's extension offer with incentives. When he comes back, it will absolutely be a "prove it" year for him, just as the second half of this year could be for Chris Paddack. 

I'd give Mahle $4 mil for a comfy recovery year, then offer him $15m first year back, with incentives that could pump it up to $20m. If he meets those, then the third year starts at $20m with incentives to get to $25m. If his first year back is disappointing, then repeat the first year back base and incentives.

That would be my offer.

I do like the idea of giving Mahle an incentive-laden deal that includes a third year! Although it may benefit Mahle to accept an extension offer with longer term (i.e., three or four years), I don't know if he, his agent, or the Twins would be inclined to do so as it would limit Mahle's earning potential and it would lock the Twins in with a pitcher who is recovering from Tommy John Surgery and has had chronic shoulder issues to a long term deal. Personally, I think a short-term two year deal would be ideal for both sides, and I think that is the route both parties would prefer to go down. Also, if Mahle hypothetically performs well and stays healthy in 2025, the Twins could offer him the Qualifying Offer in 2026. 

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Devlin Clark said:

Absolutely love this article. Agree that this is what the FO might do. Would make sense to lock him up while they can. 

Gotta comment somewhere here.

Varland, with the balance of 2023 under his belt, is pretty much a fresh Tyler Mahle. We have Paddack through 2025 - already have risk with him. Ryan is solid & only in year 2 of service. Lopez is signed for 4 years. Ober is 27 & under team control.

Can’t worry about balancing results of the/a trade…..that’s not the competition the Twins are in - win some games. I live in Cinti and Steer looks like a hot Miranda in 2022….I hope he sticks. E-Strand looks like he’s going to be a real hitter! They are Reds & we can’t worry about that - resigning Mahle to save face doesn’t help us win.

If we sign him for 2 years, we get 1 year of availability & some definite risk he’ll perform well………always a risk with anyone in any contract! Seems to me a better use of the funds, while reducing risk a few percentage points, would be to take the money we would spend on Mahle & give it to Gray as part of a 2 year extension. My assumption is Gray makes $15M now…….take Mahle’s potential $20M for 2 years and give it to Gray over 2 years. Gray is 33 but, unless he gets a serious injury, somebody will pay him $20M plus as a free agent. I’d pay him a little more, potentially, than market and give him $25M for a shorter contract term. Do it (offer it) mid season - in next month, as a near-term security blanket for him. I think that’s a better value and makes sense with the other depth we have. We can afford paying Gray to have him in play for play-offs and only have him throw 150 innings (probably his realistic work load/availability) during each season.

Could also not spend anymore on starting pitching and take the $28M from freeing Mahle & Gray and spend it on an upside reliever and a RH outfield bat………will have another $32M coming off the annual spend with Kepler, Gallo, & Polanco…..who’s hurt too much?……..all gone in ‘24.

How should we spend the $60M saved with these 5 guys all potentially gone in ‘24?

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, John Belinski said:

Don't keep throwing good money away on a bad choice. The Twins have already thrown good money away on Paddock who may never pitch again. Go with the young pitchers instead of throwing money away on pitchers that may never help you be a winning team.

Paddack may never pitch again? You better let him know that seeing how he's on pace to rejoin the team in 2 months, and has already been pitching off a mound for 2 weeks.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

16 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

I would love if the Twins were able to sign Mahle to a, as you proposed, four year $25 million or two years $12 million contract, but I don't think either of those are realistic. Hypothetically, if Mahle pitched the rest of this season healthy and stayed on the trajectory he was on, he would have been given a four or five year deal north of $20 million per year this off-season. Also, the Twins would have more likely than not offered Mahle the Qualifying Offer, which is valued at $19.65 million. Mahle and his agent will take a discount for 2024, as he will be recovering, but I don't think it will be for less than five million dollars, and he for sure won't accept an extremely discounted offer for 2025, as he and his agent plan on him being healthy for that season. Extending Mahle would be an expensive gamble, but I think it is an expensive gamble that would be worth it. 

IF all of those things worked out for him a big dollar deal would have worked out for him too, BUT they didn't.  In his current situation, he had one really good year two years ago and is now missing most of next season.  So. . . on a 2025 season contract, it seems likely a best case scenario that they would get 125ish innings at maybe a 4.00 ERA.  That to me doesn't say $20M dollars.  Instead, I think it only says $10M or so for the second year, and that is again, IF, he recovers properly -- an item that is now taken for granted, but still really isn't a sure thing.  I don't think people will be lining up at his door this coming offseason. 

[John Belinski]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Paddack may never pitch again? You better let him know that seeing how he's on pace to rejoin the team in 2 months, and has already been pitching off a mound for 2 weeks.

I will believe it when I see it.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

I will believe it when I see it.

What a fascinating take. Do you think Do-Hyoung Park is lying in this article? Or you just think his arm is going to fall off between now and September? You know Tommy John is a pretty common surgery now, right? And guys come back from it all the time. Even their second one. What is the basis of your belief that there's a limited chance he'll ever pitch again?

[John Belinski]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

What a fascinating take. Do you think Do-Hyoung Park is lying in this article? Or you just think his arm is going to fall off between now and September? You know Tommy John is a pretty common surgery now, right? And guys come back from it all the time. Even their second one. What is the basis of your belief that there's a limited chance he'll ever pitch again?

 

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

What a fascinating take. Do you think Do-Hyoung Park is lying in this article? Or you just think his arm is going to fall off between now and September? You know Tommy John is a pretty common surgery now, right? And guys come back from it all the time. Even their second one. What is the basis of your belief that there's a limited chance he'll ever pitch again?

His history.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

 

His history.

You mean his 508 professional innings pitched lead you to believe he'll never pitch again? You realize how incredibly out there it is to claim a 27 year old is simply never going to be able to pitch again because he had a second Tommy John surgery 6 years after his first one, right? I know Verlander is a freak, but he came back at the age of 39 and pitched again after his 2nd TJS just last year when he won that little award they call the Cy Young. Mike Clevinger is back on a mound after his 2nd. The Rangers are really hoping deGrom comes back from his 2nd since they owe him a whole lot of money. Nathan Eovaldi is slicing up big league hitters, and he's had 2 TJS. Chris Capuano, Joakim Soria, Daniel Hudson, and the list goes on and on. Many of those guys had their surgeries 5, 10, 15+ years ago. We've made even more advancements in medicine since most of those guys went through it.

I get if you want to argue he may not be as good coming back from his second surgery, or they shouldn't really rely on him as a rotation option next year. There's some arguments that could be made there. But to suggest he'll never pitch again is based on nothing. He's throwing off a mound now. He's on pace to join the team by the end of the year. How good will he be? Up for debate. Will he ever pitch again? I mean let's be serious, of course he's going to pitch again.

[MTV]

I really don’t understand the argument for NOT extending Mahle. At this point, you might as well get what you can out of him, and extra pitching depth can only help the Twins, having an extra starter who could be a serious #3 sounds very helpful, especially considering he’ll be 29 and 30 in 2024 and 2025. Do you remember 2021, where we had no depth and relied on J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Griffin Jax and John Gant for most of our starts? Depth is exactly why this current team isn’t sitting below the Guardians and White Sox right now, even with our lack of offense.
 

I do think a 2-year deal is what the Twins should shoot for, but $20m doesn’t seem like the right price tag. I think $3m in his first year, $12m in his second year and a $3m Innings escalator incentive would be nice (ex. $500k for each inning mark: 75, 100, 120, 140, 160, 180) and a $1m Cy Young escalator Incentive. So 2yr/$15m.

[Linus]

On 6/12/2023 at 9:31 AM, PatPfund said:

Let's recap. Mahle was not having a good year last year, got Cincy a nice package based on previous good years (something I never considered a Twins "win", but a worthy gamble). Then he hurt his shoulder and missed most of the second half. Then he tore up his elbow. So, if the price is 5 and 15, absolutely not. Spend $15 million on a healthy arm next year (or $20 since that's what you'd sink on Mahle).

This. There is no point in extending him unless he signs for virtually nothing. The original problems were with shoulder which is even more ominous than elbow problems. Move on-trade didn’t work-it happens.