Series Preview: (@HOU 5/29-5/31) Winning in Houston Fixes Everything

[Steven Trefz]

The Twins need to find their heart in hostile territory, as they make a quick trip to Houston to face the juggernaut Astros in a three-game series. Will the return of Royce Lewis provide the spark that the team needs? Or will another round of low scoring losses send the Twins into second place in the division?

Image courtesy of Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins limp into Houston on the heels of a 2-4 homestand against the Giants and Blue Jays. In their two victories, the Twins netted seven runs apiece. In their four losses, the Twins scored one, three, one, and zero runs respectively. Their reliance on the home run for offensive success again rose to the front of the storyline, and their inability to manufacture runs with consistent contact continued to waste quality starts and winnable games.

However, the team still finds itself in first place in the division as we approach the 54th game of the season. This success glimmers like fool's gold, as a series sweep against the Astros would also find the Twins two games under .500.

The imminent return of Royce Lewis to the lineup should be enough reason to get anyone excited, but the absolute offensive tear that he’s been on makes the waiting almost unbearable. Where will he play? (Third base) Who gets sent down? (Kyle Garlick, Matt Wallner) Can the Twins find a way to get him an at-bat in every inning like in a spring training rehab start? (We wish). 

Storylines abound this Memorial Day week, so let’s dig into the details.

Interesting Fact: The Astros have only missed the playoffs once since 2014. For a great read about the years of “glory” that they’ve experienced, check out Winning Fixes Everything by Evan Drellich, 2023.

Weather Factor: Sunny and high-80’s as the Texas summer kicks into gear. The roof of Minute Maid Park will most likely be closed for the series, so weather shouldn’t be a factor.

Pitching Probables
Game 1 – Monday, May 29, 2023 – 3:10 pm CDT – The Twins turn to RHP Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.82 ERA) to kick off the series, and he will face Astros RHP J.P. France (1-1, 3.43 ERA). Both teams are coming off of a short night of sleep, and the advantage should be in the hands of the pitchers.

How will Carlos Correa be received in Houston now that his permanent home has been established? (Note, along with Puerto Rico, Correa's permanent home is in Houston, but his baseball home is the Twin Cities.) Will he finally find a respite from the boo-birds on the road? (Yes) Will he finally find his swing again? (We hope so!)

Game 2 – Tuesday, May 30th, 2023 – 7:10pm CDT – Twins RHP Joe Ryan (7-1, 2.21 ERA) looks to extend his All-Star resume when he faces Houston RHP Brandon Bielak (1-2, 3.55 ERA) on Tuesday night. Ryan got the victory against the Astros in early April, giving up four runs over six innings.

Game 3 - Wednesday, May 31st, 2023 – 7:10 pm CDT – In the final game of the series, the Twins call upon RHP Louie Varland (2-1, 4.24 ERA) to continue his winning ways against fellow young hurler, RHP Hunter Brown (5-1, 3.12 ERA) for the Astros. Brown is 7-1 in 17 starts, with a 1.17 WHIP in his first two seasons.

Varland looks to keep his role in the rotation with Kenta Maeda beginning his rehab assignment. Brown looks to make Astros fans forget about some guy named Justin Verlander. With the Twins facing the Guardians for four games beginning Thursday, Varland’s ability to eat up innings on Wednesday couldn’t be more important.

Prediction Time!
What's your prediction for this series?  Can the Twins maintain their lead in the AL Central through this series? Who do you see being the biggest impact player in Houston this week? Let us know in the comments! Go, Twins!

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[mikelink45]

My prediction is that Kepler will look the same as he always has and that Gallo will lead the K happy team to new heights as they continue to lead the leagues in strike outs. 

[rwilfong86]

Winning 1/3 is a success, getting swept is my expectation. 

[tony&rodney]

Playing the Astros in Houston should get players interested in being competitive even more than one might expect under usual circumstances. Although one could say that every game demands close attention, playing a team in their stadium that has dominated baseball for nearly a decade may increase whatever competitive spirit exists. This is similar to going into Yankee or Dodger Stadiums. We should see some good baseball.

On a side note, I wonder if there would be benefits from carrying an additional bat and going with twelve pitchers? Does anyone else find it unusual to send a player to AAA who is clearly your best bat at this moment in time?

[Guest]

They've lost at least four series in a row.  The wheels are about to come off.  And when we compare this year to the same time last year and look ahead, let's remember we play 1/3 fewer games against the rest of the chumps in the AL Central this year.

[beckmt]

33 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

They've lost at least four series in a row.  The wheels are about to come off.  And when we compare this year to the same time last year and look ahead, let's remember we play 1/3 fewer games against the rest of the chumps in the AL Central this year.

so does the rest of the division, so no change.  We need to fix the hitting, but still getting little help from the umps, whose strike zone seems to be random where the twins are involved.  Can't wait for the automated strike zone. 

[hitterscount]

They get a win... but this will be the fifth series loss in a row. Playing .333 ball won't get you very far. They need to start string some wins together when they return home. 

[William K Johnson]

1 hour ago, beckmt said:

so does the rest of the division, so no change.  We need to fix the hitting, but still getting little help from the umps, whose strike zone seems to be random where the twins are involved.  Can't wait for the automated strike zone. 

Umpire strike zones are random for everyone.   I, like you, get upset over bad calls we get, but watch a lot of other games and see the same thing.   Time for the robo-umpire behind the plate.

[I wish the twins were good]

This team about to get its butt kicked... Again

[Whitey333]

Hoping Lewis can bring some spark to this team.  I'm thinking Twins continue the trend and lose 2 of 3 to Houston.  I'm also thinking we may win 3 of 4 from Cleveland this weekend.  Then everyone will think the Twins gave righted the ship.  But we will be brought down to reality on the ensuing road trip by some good teams.  This team management is so strange.  They seem to do a great disservice to some of the younger players.  We have no offense yet we send down Wallner who just reached base 8 times in a row.  Go figure.  They hang on to veterans way too long and treat you g players with disdain. 

[strumdatjag]

After yesterday’s debacle, I understand the pessimism.  Still, with Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray pitching two of the three games, there is some good reason to doubt the rampant pessimism.    

[Ricky Vaughn]

Swept by Houston and tied with Detroit for the central division. Then losing 3 out of 4 to Cleveland. This team looks like they expect bad thing to happen. Maybe Lewis can spark them but that's asking a lot of a rookie in a clubhouse with Correa and Buxton in it.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Sending down Wallner seems strange ... until you think about who else we have. Castro has been one of if not our best hitter over the last 30 games (.270/.333/.436). Gallo leads the team in HRs and it's way too early for them to cut bait on the investment. Farmer is in a slump at the plate, but we need a backup SS and he's had good stretches at the plate too. Julien will go down on a day or two when Polanco is ready to come back. 

The obvious two to wonder about are Solano and Kepler. Solano  does give us a RH decent bat, but no power and not much else. Kepler is who he is, a weak bat great glove corner OF.  Add to that the fact that there's no DH to give Wallner regular ABS and the answer is unfortunately pretty clear. I would have liked to see Buxton go back to the OF or maybe have kept Wallner over Solano but you can't fault the logic of what was done. My hpe is that we'll trade either Gallo or Kepler for relief pitching and open up a spot. 

[John Belinski]

I hope the Twins can win 1 game, but they way they are playing it would be a surprise if they win 2 games.

Sending Walkner down made no sense for a team that needs hitters and base runners, but what can we expect from our front office. It seems like the Twins have no leadership anywhere, not in the front office, not from manager and not from players. Unless something changes the Twins will not be a winning team. Looking at last half of 2022 and now 2023 unless something changes the Twins will have a losing record. It seems like the front office and the manager are just hoping something changes, but are not willing to make changes. It is hard to be a Twin's fan and watch this team play poorly.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

My hpe is that we'll trade either Gallo or Kepler for relief pitching and open up a spot.

Wonder what teams would be interested? Also wonder if the Twins are open to trading either or both?

[joefish]

15 strike outs but we won. Lewis hit a dinger. At least we can't get swept.

[Steven Trefz]

Looks like we got one…any chance for a sweep?  Curious to see if Royce stays at third the whole series.

Great win today.