Is this all there is? Is there nothing more???

[Eris]

26 minutes ago, John Belinski said:The really bad trade or give away was trading Gio, who is hitting .304, and getting nothing in return. The Twins would have a better record if he was our starting 3rd baseman. I am concerned that our front office is just not doing their job of helping the Twins be a better team.

The Gio Urshela trade can not be viewed in isolation. Urshela was essentially traded for Kyle Farmer. By most metrics (WRC+, OPS, WAR), Farmer has outperformed Urshela. 
 

Yes, 3B is a problem. Few would have predicted that Spencer Steer would outperform Jose Miranda. 

[John Belinski]

The Twins have several good teams to play in the next week so we will know more about this team after this week. We certainly need help from several new players and hope that Correa will not go on the IR, plus he starts hitting. 

[nicholas Anderson]

I think Killebrewlover and JD-twins are both correct.

I think for the most part the twins are how they are playing, so will remain a slightly above .500 team.  But because of all the extrinsic factors JD-twins points out have the ability to go on a run at some point and string together an 8-2 10 game stretch. so  it is all together possible they have an 85 or 86 win year with one good 10 game stretch that bumps them to 89-90. 

With that being said, like many others, I turned off Tuesdays game after 2 innings and didn't listen to Wednesday's game, because the general ineptness is hard to listen to and i was hoping to bring them some luck.  At least I can take credit for Wednesday's win 😉!

[joefish]

On 5/23/2023 at 10:00 AM, KirbyDome89 said:

They went 2-4 last week and extended their lead over Cleveland. Detroit isn't a real threat and KC & Chi are already done for the year. This division is f***ing awful. I wouldn't be too worried about anybody blowing by the Twins right now. 

It might appear that they are blowing by us if we fall fast and hard enough.

 

[Riverbrian]

On 5/23/2023 at 7:48 AM, killebrewlover said:

As a result, the Twins stand at 25-23 a quarter of the way through the season.  Are we relegated to this level of inconsistency for the rest of the season?!

Yes

Same with the other 29 teams.

The baseball season has an unpredictable ebb and flow to it. Even the teams that win 100 games will go through stretches and that will convince you that there is no way this team reaches 100 games. 

[Riverbrian]

On 5/24/2023 at 9:22 AM, Eris said:

Yes, 3B is a problem. Few would have predicted that Spencer Steer would outperform Jose Miranda. 

Just a fun question on this.  

In hindsight of course,  

Going back to last year when the trade happened, knowing what you know today... if given the chance to rework but not the chance to back out of it. Also keeping E-Strand locked in the deal. 

Would you swap Miranda for Steer in this deal if the Reds said... I'll take either... your choice? 

I admit that I don't have an answer at this date and time.  

[tony&rodney]

Yes, the Twins have not put it all together for a month yet, but they are still right on a schedule to have the record nearly everyone predicted. The games from here to the All Star Game were always going to be better at telling what we can expect.

The starting pitching has been excellent. I sat behind home plate the last three games. Ober, Gray, and Ryan all battled with their command and control and still kept the Twins in every game. The Giants have been better lately and just the last two weeks have been making more consistent contact, which forced our pitchers to work hard. Headrick has looked decent at AAA and Maeda will return (hopefully to the bullpen). The starting staff looks solid.

The relief pitchers need Caleb Thielbar back. I believe more specific roles could help but overall I'm less concerned about the pen than some folks. 

The lineup should be ok pretty soon. The biggest change should include more contact in situations which demand moving a runner over or hitting a sacrifice fly. Strike out must be diminished. Count me as a guy who prefers a double play ground ball to two straight strike outs, which we have been seeing too often. Polanco is important as are Larnach and Kepler. Correa may be spending some time on the IL, but hopefully Lewis can fill his spot or third base. Correa has been outstanding at shortstop, his at bats are better, and we need him playing.  I guess Buxton is merely a DH at this point, which really hurts because Julien as DH with Buck in CF is preferable. I'm thinking Kirilloff should settle in and hope it is at first base. Farmer and Castro are good reserves. The team has very slowly incorporated more running into their game. Finally, the defense has been quite decent, if not a tad less than optimal. 

The hope for more consistent offense and exciting rallies remains but the Twins are still in a pretty good spot.

 

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Going back to last year when the trade happened, knowing what you know today... if given the chance to rework but not the chance to back out of it. Also keeping E-Strand locked in the deal. 

Would you swap Miranda for Steer in this deal if the Reds said... I'll take either... your choice?

There is no way the Twins would consider trading Miranda in place of Steer. Steer is not better than Kirilloff, Polanco, Julien, Lewis, Correa, Lee, Castro, Farmer, or Miranda. He didn't fit in the Twins system and will need a major boost or lose his spot with the Reds. CES was a loss as a potential DH/3B, but he also was going to have a hard time finding at bats. I never liked Mahle but it was a reasonable trade at the time and we all know what Satchel Page said about looking back.

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

There is no way the Twins would consider trading Miranda in place of Steer. Steer is not better than Kirilloff, Polanco, Julien, Lewis, Correa, Lee, Castro, Farmer, or Miranda. He didn't fit in the Twins system and will need a major boost or lose his spot with the Reds. CES was a loss as a potential DH/3B, but he also was going to have a hard time finding at bats. I never liked Mahle but it was a reasonable trade at the time and we all know what Satchel Page said about looking back.

As I pose that question. I'm not questioning the reasonableness of the deal. I don't blame the front office for making it despite the getting next to nothing out of Mahle.

The question is knowing what you know today as opposed to when the trade was made. Would you swap Miranda for Steer... again knowing what you know today. 

I take your answer as a no. I won't argue that because I'm not sure what I would do. At the time of the deal... I'm all Miranda and I see Steer as disposable because of upcoming 40 man roster pressure.   

Today - I see Steer currently has an OPS of .800 with the Reds while Miranda is in the minor leagues trying to find himself.  

 

[I wish the twins were good]

On 5/23/2023 at 9:56 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Miranda didn’t show up this year & I don’t think there’s anyone that follows Twins/baseball that didn’t think he was probably our 3rd or 4th best offensive weapon. Almost zero positive production to date & working on himself in St. Paul.

Polanco was the other anticipated 3rd or 4th best offensive weapon. Didn’t play first 25 games or more & now out for another 8-9 minimum. Solid when available but tough to be consistent as a club with him in 40% of the games.
 

Kirilloff has been great - only played 15 games or so to date.

Gordon was brutal for first 35 games and just getting going (needed in CF) and he’s now out for how long???

Kepler has been out for 20 games.

Correa is lifetime .279 hitter & he’s around .208……..better things to come.

Farmer got hit in the face & had oral surgery and missed 20 games or so.

Miranda - Kepler - Polanco - Gordon - Mahle - Maeda……..none of these are on 26 man roster & we’re in essentially every game. Couple calls from umpires last week and a couple better bullpen performances and we’re 28-20. I get our record is what it is but we’re not far off pretty good!

Our current 5 starters are a combined 17-5 with a 2.83 ERA. I’d say that’s pretty good and gives reason for optimism.

Hitting & health will be a roller coaster for rest of the year…………..our bullpen is the issue and we have potential help/solutions over next 15-30 days. Maeda - Balazovic - Headrick should all be additions to the pen over next few weeks.

Moran - Stewart - Jax - Lopez - Duran are decent core but we need to fill out the other 3 spots with effective guys.

 

Two big relief arms and a solid bat they can use to pinch hit or be the regular DH if Buck ever goes back to CF would go a long way on this team. Very gettable ahead of the deadline. Correa will figure it out sooner than later. I have a good feeling one of the young guys (Julien, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner) is going to have become a big contributor by the end of the season. Second half schedule is WAY softer. I agree that they aren't far off. They have the talent in the rotation to sustain much of the success so far and any lineup with Correa, Buxton, and this year's version of Gallo in it cannot remain this bad. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

On 5/24/2023 at 7:22 AM, Eris said:

The Gio Urshela trade can not be viewed in isolation. Urshela was essentially traded for Kyle Farmer. By most metrics (WRC+, OPS, WAR), Farmer has outperformed Urshela. 
 

Yes, 3B is a problem. Few would have predicted that Spencer Steer would outperform Jose Miranda. 

Let's also not go too far on the Gio Urshela hype train. He is hitting .299, with a .320 OBP, .353 SLG for a .673 OPS. That's right, .673. Not even .700. He is effectively a slow singles hitter with no power. His fielding out here is about the same as it was for the Twins; he's great on balls hit directly to him or within a step or so either way, but has very limited range even for third baseman. He doesn't even start for the Angels. They use him as the IF UTL. He's also in his last year of arbitration . Frankly, I doubt if the Angels will re-sign him for next year unless he is willing to work pretty cheap.

The Angels' issue with the Urshela is the same issue the Twins had and the issue that the Yankees had before them. He hits pretty well for a Shortstop (his position when he first came up), but he doesn't hit well enough for power to be an everyday Third Baseman, and he lacks the range to be an everyday Shortstop.  The Angels were hoping he could hold down SS, but found out he can't, and now he's a utility infielder.  

[h2oface]

On 5/23/2023 at 8:50 AM, sun said:

I think that the FO underestimated just now much that Arraez's bat meant to the team.. The FO was relying on other players to make up for his hitting but solo HR's & not enough hits with RISP seems to be the norm.. There's bright spots but there's also injuries. Pitching is important but the team still needs to find a way to score more runs every day. If winning were too easy then after a while being a Twin's fan wouldn't be any fun. So I'll take any wins that they can muster & keep hoping for the best.

 

On 5/23/2023 at 7:56 AM, JD-TWINS said:

.........Our current 5 starters are a combined 17-5 with a 2.83 ERA. I’d say that’s pretty good and gives reason for optimism.

Now multi-season contract laden and FO darling, Pablo Lopez, is bringing that ERA up, too, instead of down. Lopez for the season - 3.93 (career 3.90). So Lopez is average-ish (in my book), and Arraez is having a career year, and seemingly getting better each year. Lopez's performance is not giving me the optimism that some of the other staff is. Underestimated Arraez, and over estimated Lopez. You are your record, not opinions and hopes of what you could be.

[h2oface]

48 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

There is no way the Twins would consider trading Miranda in place of Steer. Steer is not better than Kirilloff, Polanco, Julien, Lewis, Correa, Lee, Castro, Farmer, or Miranda. He didn't fit in the Twins system and will need a major boost or lose his spot with the Reds. CES was a loss as a potential DH/3B, but he also was going to have a hard time finding at bats. I never liked Mahle but it was a reasonable trade at the time and we all know what Satchel Page said about looking back.

Kinda sad that a player performing with an .800 OPS doesn' t fit the Twins system, but Miranda's feeble 2023, in the show and at AAA, does.

Miranda reminds me of Danny Valencia so far, who had a great first partial year, and that was it. Hopefully, Miranda can shine and be a contributor, again. Time is ticking fast with Lewis almost ready to take what Miranda was gifted at the beginning of the year. 

[AceWrigley]

Imagine how Mets or Padres fans feel so far after those teams spent bazillions.

[stringer bell]

On 5/24/2023 at 9:22 AM, Eris said:

The Gio Urshela trade can not be viewed in isolation. Urshela was essentially traded for Kyle Farmer. By most metrics (WRC+, OPS, WAR), Farmer has outperformed Urshela. 
 

Yes, 3B is a problem. Few would have predicted that Spencer Steer would outperform Jose Miranda. 

Gio has been the epitome of a discipline-free singles hitter this year. .320 OBP, .353 SLG, well below average despite the gaudy BA.

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, h2oface said:

Kinda sad that a player performing with an .800 OPS doesn' t fit the Twins system, but Miranda's feeble 2023, in the show and at AAA, does.

Miranda reminds me of Danny Valencia so far, who had a great first partial year, and that was it. Hopefully, Miranda can shine and be a contributor, again. Time is ticking fast with Lewis almost ready to take what Miranda was gifted at the beginning of the year. 

I have a little more hope for Miranda because he really doesn't have huge holes in his swing, as much as his approach is out of whack. That said, he needs to be more than an okay hitter to have a steady job in MLB.

[tony&rodney]

Gio Urshela is a fun player and someone who seems to always engage positively with the fan base wherever he plays. That said, if my budget is less than $220 million for the 26 person roster, I'm not keeping Urshela. Miranda had more promise and Lewis should be able to step in next week and be a fair player on both sides of the ball; better and less expensive than Gio. If money means nothing, maybe Urshela stays, but not if there actually is a budget.

Valancia, Arraez, etc. .... a fair amount of good to excellent players cycle through every team and the trick is to find a balance to the roster where defense, offense, pitching, and athleticism make for a winning or quite competitive team. It is always tricky. I'm thinking the Twins are on the cusp of a decent team.  

[Whitey333]

This team is very similar to the ones the previous two seasons.  They are a very boring team playing boring, listless, and undisciplined  baseball.  We have too many overpaid and overrated players that are grossly underperformed.  Tgey strikeout way too much,  can't hit in the clutch, can't finish games when ahead, very poor base running skills,  and get outmanaged way too often.  At least we know they always have injuries to blame again.

[latiadussalt]

On 5/23/2023 at 7:48 AM, killebrewlover said:

The title of this entry is stealing a line from a movie, which escapes me for now (Aliens 3?).  Twins lose their home opener to SF after a 2-4 road trip, following a 4-2 home stand, which followed a 2-4 road trip, which followed a 5-2 home stand, and so on.  As a result, the Twins stand at 25-23 a quarter of the way through the season.  Are we relegated to this level of inconsistency for the rest of the season?!  There is plenty of talent on this ball club.  Loads of it!  And yet here we are at only 2 games over .500 and the lead in the Division in jeopardy with every passing day.  We have yet to play Detroit.  And Cleveland is leading the series 1-2 so far.  Does anyone really think these two teams won't take advantage of the situation with the Twins so far this year??!!  I suppose the only silver lining is that we are in the Central Division.  Otherwise we'd be 9.5 back in the East, and 4.5 back in the West.

So, I repeat.  Is this all there is?  Is there nothing more?  Despite all the platitudes and excuses surrounding a "bad luck" set of scenarios, such seems to be the case.  This is not a rant.  Simply an observation.  And one that will reset my expectations for the remainder of the Twin's season.  Time to get revved up for the college football season...

As a fellow fan, I understand your frustration with the Minnesota Twins' inconsistent performance so far this season. It can be disheartening to see a team with plenty of talent struggle to maintain a winning record. It's true that the Twins' current standing at 25-23, just two games over .500, is not ideal.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, latiadussalt said:

As a fellow fan, I understand your frustration with the Minnesota Twins' inconsistent performance so far this season. It can be disheartening to see a team with plenty of talent struggle to maintain a winning record. It's true that the Twins' current standing at 25-23, just two games over .500, is not ideal.

Welcome to Twins Daily!

[stringer bell]

Yes, the Twins have been disappointing, but so have a number of other teams. At just above .500 almost two months in, the Twins lead the division. They have had shortcomings so far, but they have time to fix them. 

[IndianaTwin]

On 5/23/2023 at 10:56 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Miranda didn’t show up this year & I don’t think there’s anyone that follows Twins/baseball that didn’t think he was probably our 3rd or 4th best offensive weapon. Almost zero positive production to date & working on himself in St. Paul.

Polanco was the other anticipated 3rd or 4th best offensive weapon. Didn’t play first 25 games or more & now out for another 8-9 minimum. Solid when available but tough to be consistent as a club with him in 40% of the games.
 

Kirilloff has been great - only played 15 games or so to date.

Gordon was brutal for first 35 games and just getting going (needed in CF) and he’s now out for how long???

Kepler has been out for 20 games.

Correa is lifetime .279 hitter & he’s around .208……..better things to come.

Farmer got hit in the face & had oral surgery and missed 20 games or so.

Miranda - Kepler - Polanco - Gordon - Mahle - Maeda……..none of these are on 26 man roster & we’re in essentially every game. Couple calls from umpires last week and a couple better bullpen performances and we’re 28-20. I get our record is what it is but we’re not far off pretty good!

Our current 5 starters are a combined 17-5 with a 2.83 ERA. I’d say that’s pretty good and gives reason for optimism.

Hitting & health will be a roller coaster for rest of the year…………..our bullpen is the issue and we have potential help/solutions over next 15-30 days. Maeda - Balazovic - Headrick should all be additions to the pen over next few weeks.

Moran - Stewart - Jax - Lopez - Duran are decent core but we need to fill out the other 3 spots with effective guys.

 

Do you realize what you did here? You typed this entire message and didn't mention Buxton. Yeah, we wish he was playing center, but he's stayed in the lineup and is on pace for nearly 4.0 bWAR as a DH. 

I'm with you, and I'd certainly rather be two games over .500 while not meeting expectations than, say, 10 games under. 

[August J Gloop]

This is the problem with baseball in the age of football. The twins have lost 4 games more than they should have. out of 50. That's 8 percent of their games that have gone wrong. It's not hard to find 4 games where things got weird. The second Conforto homer is the Giants series is a great example. It's a low and away pitch that Conforto hit out by a foot. Of course it can be said that they shouldn't be turning over so many slim leads, but that was the first game they lost all year where they'd had a 3+run lead in it. 

So of course it's easy and understandable to be frustrated. But it's not any more reasonable to say they won't play well than it is to see the makings of wins. And if anything the team should be more frustrated with how they've played against bad teams. They are 8-12 vs BOS, HOU, LAD, NYY, LAA (Teams that seem like they might actually be good).  Not that bad considering all but 6 of those games were on the road. Not bad when you consider bad umpiring cost them at least two wins in LA.  

Where the real problem lies is that vs KC, CHC&W, CLE, MIA, SDP, SFG & WSH they're only 18-12. This assortment of teams has mustered a 173-229 -- .430 record. Now, technically the Twins 18-12 mark is higher than the losing percentage of the bad teams group. That LP doesn't account for the fact that many of these teams have played each other. We'd have to remove those games to get a real idea of how they're doing outside their sad subdivision. But it's BAD. For examples: CLE has a winning record against 5 teams. The Twins, Angels, As, Mariners and Nationals. CHW? Royals, Reds and Guardians. The Twins are 3-3 vs them. 

The other area to look at luck is 1 run ball games. Twins are 4-10 in 1 run games. Thats 3 wins less than you generally expect. I know I've talked about this before, but you don't win 1 run games by being good. Any specific 1 run game can be won by a  feat of skill, but by and large the record is driven by flukes of sequencing. The twins have played 14 1 run games. and given up 52 runs in those games. Tampa has played 16 of them and surrendered 64 runs. Tampa is 9-7 in their 1 run games. Look what happens to the Twins record if they just had Tampa's results. I also hear the retort, but if they were good, they would just score more, since the obvious average in 1run losses is -1 per game. To that I say what about all the 1 run games with flukes in them? You don't think there are 4 that could easily have gone the Twins way with just a bit of luck? Strikes that were thrown but called balls? Balls in play at 75 MPH going for RBIs? I can call out 6 without looking. 

But like I said, this is the trouble with baseball. There is skill, but so much of it is actually chance. Thanks for reading if you did. I understand if you didn't.  

 

 

[latiadussalt]

On 5/26/2023 at 8:49 PM, August J Gloop said:

This is the problem with baseball in the age of football. The twins have lost 4 games more than they should have. out of 50. That's 8 percent of their games that have gone wrong. It's not hard to find 4 games where things got weird. The second Conforto homer is the Giants series is a great example. It's a low and away pitch that Conforto hit out by a foot. Of course it can be said that they shouldn't be turning over so many slim leads, but that was the first game they lost all year where they'd had a 3+run lead in it. 

So of course it's easy and understandable to be frustrated. But it's not any more reasonable to say they won't play well than it is to see the makings of wins. And if anything the team should be more frustrated with how they've played against bad teams. They are 8-12 vs BOS, HOU, LAD, NYY, LAA (Teams that seem like they might actually be good).  Not that bad considering all but 6 of those games were on the road. Not bad when you consider bad umpiring cost them at least two wins in LA.  

Where the real problem lies is that vs KC, CHC&W, CLE, MIA, SDP, SFG & WSH they're only 18-12. This assortment of teams has mustered a 173-229 -- .430 record. Now, technically the Twins 18-12 mark is higher than the losing percentage of the bad teams group. That LP doesn't account for the fact that many of these teams have played each other. We'd have to remove those games to get a real idea of how they're doing outside their sad subdivision. But it's BAD. For examples: CLE has a winning record against 5 teams. The Twins, Angels, As, Mariners and Nationals. CHW? Royals, Reds and Guardians. The Twins are 3-3 vs them. 

The other area to look at luck is 1 run ball games. Twins are 4-10 in 1 run games. Thats 3 wins less than you generally expect. I know I've talked about this before, but you don't win 1 run games by being good. Any specific 1 run game can be won by a  feat of skill, but by and large the record is driven by flukes of sequencing. The discussion in the previous post about the role of skill and luck in baseball resonates with the broader theme of analyzing advantages and disadvantages in various contexts. Just like in baseball, where skill and luck intertwine, different aspects of life can also be examined through the lens of advantages and disadvantages. Baseball, as a sport, exemplifies the advantages of skill, such as strategy, athleticism, and teamwork. By the way besides this I use https://graduateway.com/essay-type/advantages-and-disadvantages/ to analyze these matches. A skilled player or team can demonstrate exceptional performance, making calculated moves and showcasing their abilities. These advantages often lead to success on the field and commendable records. The twins have played 14 1 run games. and given up 52 runs in those games. Tampa has played 16 of them and surrendered 64 runs. Tampa is 9-7 in their 1 run games. Look what happens to the Twins record if they just had Tampa's results. I also hear the retort, but if they were good, they would just score more, since the obvious average in 1run losses is -1 per game. To that I say what about all the 1 run games with flukes in them? You don't think there are 4 that could easily have gone the Twins way with just a bit of luck? Strikes that were thrown but called balls? Balls in play at 75 MPH going for RBIs? I can call out 6 without looking. 

But like I said, this is the trouble with baseball. There is skill, but so much of it is actually chance. Thanks for reading if you did. I understand if you didn't.  

 

 

This seems like a good analysis, I agree with you.