Twins SP Trade Ideas

[Malachi]

The Twins in FA have done...well....really bad. So now we need to pivot. We need creative trades, and this ownership has said they will get creative. 

Competitive Trades

Trade #1: 

Twins receive: Pablo Lopez

Marlins receive: Louie Varland, Misael Urbina

Sure, lots of future talent, but good short term value for the Twins. Lopez has 2 years of control left and could be re-signed. 

 

Trade #2:

Twins receive:  Carlos Carrasco 

Mets receive: Ronny Henriquez 

Carrasco has 1 year left on his contract and is due 12MM

 

Trade #3: 

Twins receive: Logan Gilbert

Mariners receive: Luis Arrez 

Fair trade for both sides 

 

Comment more ideas and opinions 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not trading any prospects for guys with less than 3 years of control left. All are good trades for a team that needs one or two players to get over the top....but not this team. Not after all the trades the last couple years.

[AussieG]

#3 Sounds interesting.. My head says Yes, heart says No ?

[ashbury]

Sure, I'd do #3. The trade values site and also the OOTP game have the same analysis as my snap reaction: Arraez is a massive underpay for a starter like Logan Gilbert. The latter is a first-rounder who has panned out, so he's got the pedigree and now the resume.  Pitchers like him are considered extremely valuable and thus are extremely costly. You don't get a good pitcher for just about any position player except the very elite; the Mariners would demand pitching and more pitching, probably more than we've got, in return.  Arraez alone gets you less than halfway there, assuming Seattle is even entertaining offers.

[AussieG]

12 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Sure, I'd do #3. The trade values site and also the OOTP game has the same analysis as my snap reaction: Arraez is a massive underpay for a starter like Logan Gilbert. The latter is a first-rounder who has panned out, so he's got the pedigree and now the resume.  Pitchers like him are considered extremely valuable and thus are extremely costly. You don't get a good pitcher for just about any position player except the very elite; the Mariners would demand pitching and more pitching, probably more than we've got, in return.  Arraez alone gets you less than halfway there, assuming Seattle is even entertaining offers.

Nice, I just brought OOTP23. Still trying to wrap my head around it

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure why Seattle is trading off a pitcher....

[ashbury]

26 minutes ago, AussieG said:

Nice, I just brought OOTP23. Still trying to wrap my head around it

The only way to win is to not start.  It's that good. 

[SteveLV]

You might be able to get Carrasco from the Mets for the proverbial bag of balls at this point.  He is costing them a fortune (not that they apparently care), and he is not in their plans.

[harmony55]

Seattle won't be trading Logan Gilbert for Luis Arraez but the Mariners could deal from pitching depth.

How about one-plus year of rightfielder Max Kepler for one year of righthander Chris Flexen?

Compare the stats over the past two seasons for righthanders Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Flexen:

JT 321.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.2 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR
TW 316.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 99 ERA+, 3.9 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR
CF 317.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.7 fWAR, 4.7 bWAR

The Seattle Mariners reportedly are shopping Flexen, who is two years younger than Walker and two-and-a-half years younger than Taillon. Flexen lost some luster in August when Luis Castillo bumped Flexen from the Seattle rotation. Despite the demotion Flexen matched Taillon’s 2022 bWAR of 1.3.

Many will point to Flexen’s drop in fWAR from 3.0 in 2021 to 0.7 in 2022. However, Walker has never posted an fWAR above 2.5 and Taillon has not exceeded 2.3 fWAR since 2018.

The Chicago Cubs signed Taillon to a four-year, $68 million contract and the Philadelphia Phillies signed Walker to a four-year, $72 million contract.

Flexen is guaranteed a 2023 salary of $8 million in what MLB Trade Rumors reports is his final year of team control (despite Flexen currently sitting on two years and 107 days of MLB service).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 12/23/2022 at 2:49 PM, ashbury said:

The only way to win is to not start.  It's that good. 

Like The Farming Game

[nicksaviking]

On 12/23/2022 at 2:08 PM, ashbury said:

Arraez alone gets you less than halfway there, assuming Seattle is even entertaining offers.

I would trade Arraez twice for Gilbert.

 

[nicksaviking]

12 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Seattle won't be trading Logan Gilbert for Luis Arraez but the Mariners could deal from pitching depth.

How about one-plus year of rightfielder Max Kepler for one year of righthander Chris Flexen?

Compare the stats over the past two seasons for righthanders Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Flexen:

JT 321.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.2 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR
TW 316.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 99 ERA+, 3.9 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR
CF 317.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.7 fWAR, 4.7 bWAR

The Seattle Mariners reportedly are shopping Flexen, who is two years younger than Walker and two-and-a-half years younger than Taillon. Flexen lost some luster in August when Luis Castillo bumped Flexen from the Seattle rotation. Despite the demotion Flexen matched Taillon’s 2022 bWAR of 1.3.

Many will point to Flexen’s drop in fWAR from 3.0 in 2021 to 0.7 in 2022. However, Walker has never posted an fWAR above 2.5 and Taillon has not exceeded 2.3 fWAR since 2018.

The Chicago Cubs signed Taillon to a four-year, $68 million contract and the Philadelphia Phillies signed Walker to a four-year, $72 million contract.

Flexen is guaranteed a 2023 salary of $8 million in what MLB Trade Rumors reports is his final year of team control (despite Flexen currently sitting on two years and 107 days of MLB service).

But Flexen wouldn’t even be the number five starter. He wouldn’t be ahead of Ober, Mahle or Maeda, and I’d put him behind the upside guys Varland and SWR too.

[Richard]

Trade #1 would be my ideal situation.  I like the age old idea of trading what could be talent in the future for what is talent right now.  Louis Varland is in the barn of guys on this team that is just on the verge of making the team, and Misael Urbina is far from the majors.  Get Lopez and keep Arraez.

[harmony55]

On 12/24/2022 at 9:07 PM, nicksaviking said:

But Flexen wouldn’t even be the number five starter. He wouldn’t be ahead of Ober, Mahle or Maeda, and I’d put him behind the upside guys Varland and SWR too.

Given the comparative stats of Chris Flexen, Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker over the past two seasons, where would Taillon and Walker fit into the Twins rotation?

[tony&rodney]

Trade Trevor Larnach, Cole Sands, and Luis Arraez to Miami for Jesus Luzardo and Edward Cabrera. It's a gamble on upside.

[glunn]

How about exploring a trade to get Chris Sale from the Red Sox?  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/red-soxs-chris-sale-drawing-trade-interest.html

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, glunn said:

How about exploring a trade to get Chris Sale from the Red Sox?  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/red-soxs-chris-sale-drawing-trade-interest.html

He effectively hasn’t pitched since 2019.  If they don’t have to give up much to get him, it seems like an interesting flier, but I gotta think he’s more valuable to the Red Sox who are hurting for pitching bad.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 12/23/2022 at 10:44 AM, Malachi said:

Comment more ideas and opinions

 

appreciate the time you put into this. The first trade is an absolute joke, if the twins could get Lopez for these two it would be done. For the Twins to get Lopez for 2 players (Pitcher/position player) it would be more like Lewis and Ober. The trade Simulator has your trade a 7 for 38.7.

The second trade I don't see anyway the Twins do, trade a pitching prospect that is actually young (22 all of next season) for a 36 year old pitcher with no real spot in the rotation. The trade simulator has this the Twins receiving -4.7 and giving up 2.

Again the 3rd one is a joke, if the Twins could get 25 year old Gilbert for Arraez it would be done, but that isn't going to be close to enough for Gilbert, maybe if the Twins added Ryan or Lee but that wouldn't be enough either.

Teams don't trade good/great guys for other teams trash (not that Arraez is trash but...)

The real problem with the Twins is they have no real trade chips that IMO they will be willing to trade. (Lee, Ryan, Duran) Polanco, Arraez, Miranda, Lewis, Ober and Larnach are decent trade chips but to get anything real it will take at least two of them and probably other prospects and if we are being honest besides Lewis and Miranda none of them are young (Arraez and Larnach are 25 so they are fairly young)

Remember the twins got SWR and Martin and at the time were 21 and 22 I believe.

[TwinsDr2021]

11 hours ago, glunn said:

How about exploring a trade to get Chris Sale from the Red Sox?  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/red-soxs-chris-sale-drawing-trade-interest.html

I absolutely look into this and see what the Sox want and willing to pay to take him off their hands. Looks like he has 75 million left over the next three years plus that pesky 50 million from 35-39.

Maybe the Sox cover the 50 million the twins throw in a couple of prospect and the Twins start the season with a 6 man rotation and see how it shakes out.

[TopGunn#22]

All interesting deals.  I'm not "chained" to BBTV's but Gilbert for Arraez would be a massive underpay for us so that's not happening.  I like tony&rodney's deal the best.  If the BBTV's numbers say it's fair I like gambling on the upside of a young LH and RH starter.  One other possible trade could be Kepler and something else to the Yankees for Frankie Montas.  

[nicksaviking]

14 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Given the comparative stats of Chris Flexen, Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker over the past two seasons, where would Taillon and Walker fit into the Twins rotation?

I wanted nothing to do with either of those two. The Twins don't need, and should not be looking for guys who pitch behind Gray and Ryan. The only starters they should be looking at are guys for the front of the rotation or boring guys they can stick in St. Paul in case of an emergency.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

The only starters they should be looking at are guys for the front of the rotation or boring guys they can stick in St. Paul in case of an emergency.

Agree. Talent, athleticism, and potential should be key components of any players acquired via trade. The Twins need a jolt, which might have been Rodon and Correa/Bogearts in a separate universe. That window has passed and it's ok. Now the Twins have an excess number of corner players who need at bats and a couple of fair prospects who are pushing for an opportunity. I'm willing to be surprised by any trade that brings in upside. My only two suggestions right now are to harass Miami into a trade that brings back one or two of some combination of Cabrera, Luzardo, Meyer, and maybe Lopez. One guy is fine, two is better. I would send some combination that the Marlins see as a fit for them: Arraez, Larnach/Kirilloff or others. It's a gamble to improve the depth of our pitching staff. Oh, and once again, send Pagan south; the bad luck charm that needs removal. 

[Steve Lein]

Trade #1 - I do not want to trade Louie Varland, someone I can see being just as good as Pablo Lopez and is under control for 6+ seasons, for 2 years of Pablo Lopez. We already have at least 4 guys at Lopez's level or better already, IMO. It's a bad move to make from a roster construction standpoint for me at this cost.

Trade #2 - Don't mind this because of the cost, but is the same idea as trading for Lopez. Where would he even slot in the rotation? Because for me it'd be fifth at best.

Trade #3 - Right type of guy to target with Luis Arraez... But he's not even close to the whole package it would take.

 

[Steve Lein]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Trade Trevor Larnach, Cole Sands, and Luis Arraez to Miami for Jesus Luzardo and Edward Cabrera. It's a gamble on upside.

I would much prefer to target Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo (in that order) over Pablo Lopez.

[NebraskaTwins]

On 12/23/2022 at 10:44 AM, Malachi said:

The Twins in FA have done...well....really bad. So now we need to pivot. We need creative trades, and this ownership has said they will get creative. 

Competitive Trades

Trade #1: 

Twins receive: Pablo Lopez

Marlins receive: Louie Varland, Misael Urbina

Sure, lots of future talent, but good short term value for the Twins. Lopez has 2 years of control left and could be re-signed. 

 

Trade #2:

Twins receive:  Carlos Carrasco 

Mets receive: Ronny Henriquez 

Carrasco has 1 year left on his contract and is due 12MM

 

Trade #3: 

Twins receive: Logan Gilbert

Mariners receive: Luis Arrez 

Fair trade for both sides 

 

Comment more ideas and opinions 

 

 

 

Any trade that involves Luis Arraez is a colossal mistake. 

[nicksaviking]

35 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

Trade #1 - I do not want to trade Louie Varland, someone I can see being just as good as Pablo Lopez and is under control for 6+ seasons, for 2 years of Pablo Lopez. We already have at least 4 guys at Lopez's level or better already, IMO. It's a bad move to make from a roster construction standpoint for me at this cost.

Trade #2 - Don't mind this because of the cost, but is the same idea as trading for Lopez. Where would he even slot in the rotation? Because for me it'd be fifth at best.

Trade #3 - Right type of guy to target with Luis Arraez... But he's not even close to the whole package it would take.

 

Even if others disagree WHERE he slots in, it's pretty indisputable WHEN he slots in.

If the Twins are truly looking at trades because Gray, Mahle and Meada are free agents after next year, why are they looking at trading assets for a guy who'll be a free agent the following year? I mean, is this really the dance we want to do every off season? Trade major assets for a guy with two years of control? Even if it costs more, the more judicious use of assets would be to trade for a guy you don't have to worry about for three, four or even more years.

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Even if others disagree WHERE he slots in, it's pretty indisputable WHEN he slots in.

If the Twins are truly looking at trades because Gray, Mahle and Meada are free agents after next year, why are they looking at trading assets for a guy who'll be a free agent the following year? I mean, is this really the dance we want to do every off season? Trade major assets for a guy with two years of control? Even if it costs more, the more judicious use of assets would be to trade for a guy you don't have to worry about for three, four or even more years.

This point is key. Their refusal to sign big time free agent pitchers, and unwillingness to trade their best protects for guys with more than two years of control, means they have to trade for prospects and develop prospects. That's a fine strategy, but they aren't following it. If they were, Arraez or Kepler would be dealt for pitching prospects......

[NebraskaTwins]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This point is key. Their refusal to sign big time free agent pitchers, and unwillingness to trade their best protects for guys with more than two years of control, means they have to trade for prospects and develop prospects. That's a fine strategy, but they aren't following it. If they were, Arraez or Kepler would be dealt for pitching prospects......

The Twins aren't refusing to sign big time FA pitchers. They tried the last 3 or 4 years and those pitchers turned down the offer to go elsewhere. And they did trade some of their best prospects at the deadline last year? 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, NebraskaTwins said:

The Twins aren't refusing to sign big time FA pitchers. They tried the last 3 or 4 years and those pitchers turned down the offer to go elsewhere. And they did trade some of their best prospects at the deadline last year? 

They've signed zero. That's intentional. They traded middling prospects for a guy with two years left, twice. Again, not their best, and not for long term fixes. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Steve Lein said:

I would much prefer to target Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo (in that order) over Pablo Lopez.

This is exactly what I have been proposing in the last week on various posts. 1. Cabrera. 2. Luzardo. 3. Meyer. 4. Lopez. 

As much as I like a number of the corner (LF,RF,3B,!B) players on the Twins team now, I'm suggesting that the team move on a trade for upside. Yes, I believe all have more potential than any of the Twins current pitchers.