Will the shift ban improve Kepler’s offense in 2023?

[Rosterman]

Let's allow Kepler to shift to another team.

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

 

This is from an Analyst article in August 2022.   Kepler should see some improvement.  It basically says Kepler's avg would go from 2020 to today would go from .220 to .270, a 50 point increase.  If that were the case, we would be talking extension, not trade bait.  You have to keep him to see if he rebounds.

https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/08/who-figures-to-benefit-the-most-if-the-defensive-shift-is-banned/

"How can we tell if a batted ball would have been a hit against a normal alignment? There’s certainly some level of judgement involved, but in most instances, it’s not a difficult assessment to make." 

There's nothing in the article that shows how they're arriving at these numbers, only the vague statement above. The piece seems to be working backwards, particularly when they start talking about the shift ending the "launch angle era," or being the primary culprit for BA trending downwards. 

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Let's allow Kepler to shift to another team.

With no replacement, brilliant; Larnach cannot play Left and Right at the same time and he seems to be the only rookie who may turn out OK.

[rwilfong86]

Hopefully he returns to 2019 form, if not the Kepler experiment should come to an end.

[Riverbrian]

12 hours ago, RpR said:

With no replacement, brilliant; Larnach cannot play Left and Right at the same time and he seems to be the only rookie who may turn out OK.

Did you just sarcastically "Brilliant" in response to Rosterman? 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

12 hours ago, RpR said:

With no replacement, brilliant; Larnach cannot play Left and Right at the same time and he seems to be the only rookie who may turn out OK.

They only have Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, and Nick Gordon to play LF and RF and hit better than Kepler does.

they need more depth!

[JD-TWINS]

On 10/21/2022 at 7:47 AM, Doctor Gast said:

I believe he could improve some and be an asset, so I'm between #1 & #2. Yet I think he could help a team like CO more. If we can get a quaity SP in exchange, I'd be in for trading him. But I wouldn't trade him just to trade him.

Making room for the other left handed hitters, under team control makes some sense. The salary trade to one of them nets over $8 million. With respect,  there’s nobody trading a quality SP for Keppler or almost any combination of guys.

I love his defense. Ability to play CF if needed with Byron’s issues. I think he hits .260 w/o the shift. He needs more consistent pop to stay on the roster though.

He’s a “decent” proven piece in a trade along with one or two young guys.

[Doctor Gast]

On 10/21/2022 at 7:14 AM, old nurse said:

Benintendi only brought back suspects when he was traded from Boston. He is a similar to better offense, probably not the defense than Kepler. Why on earth would anyone five up a quality starting pitcher, a rare commodity, for a corner outfielder that is about an average hitter like Kepler

At BTV Kepler is at 5.6 and Marquez is at 4,3. The difference is in their contract, Kepler has a much better one. Coors is a tough place to pitch & a great place to hit. Both would prosper in different surroundings.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Making room for the other left handed hitters, under team control makes some sense. The salary trade to one of them nets over $8 million. With respect,  there’s nobody trading a quality SP for Keppler or almost any combination of guys.

I love his defense. Ability to play CF if needed with Byron’s issues. I think he hits .260 w/o the shift. He needs more consistent pop to stay on the roster though.

He’s a “decent” proven piece in a trade along with one or two young guys.

Check my preceeding post

Kepler plays a GG RF and plays a very good LF which he never plays but he's lost in CF & doesn't command the position which the position commands

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

They only have Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, and Nick Gordon to play LF and RF and hit better than Kepler does.

they need more depth!

Kirilloff and Gordon should never ever be allowed to play Right Field, their fielding is that poor, Wallner was no better; he belongs in AAA  but may me another Rooker.

If Larnach stays at his current level of performance, he can have Left Field.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

At BTV Kepler is at 5.6 and Marquez is at 4,3. The difference is in their contract, Kepler has a much better one. Coors is a tough place to pitch & a great place to hit. Both would prosper in different surroundings.

The Rockies have a similar player under contract to Kepler. Only cost them a prospect or two and they got cash to boot. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 10/22/2022 at 6:50 AM, jorgenswest said:

I guess it would help if there was a study with data to contradict and show that it will be little benefit to Kepler. There is a study in the Athletic which also points to a Kepler being among a handful that will benefit both with the 2B on the infield and hits up the middle.

Do you think there will benefit to some players but not Kepler? Do you think it won’t have any impact for any player?

I

On 10/27/2022 at 7:44 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

 

This is from an Analyst article in August 2022.   Kepler should see some improvement.  It basically says Kepler's avg would go from 2020 to today would go from .220 to .270, a 50 point increase.  If that were the case, we would be talking extension, not trade bait.  You have to keep him to see if he rebounds.

https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/08/who-figures-to-benefit-the-most-if-the-defensive-shift-is-banned/

Interesting numbers in the Analyst article. The Athletic was not so complementary, It estimated that guys like Seager and Kepler would only get another 1 or 2 hits a month because the SS would be an inch on the left side and the 2B should be right where these guys hit the ball. The Athletic analysis seems to be better supported by actual experience at the AA level according to the article. I tend to agree with the Athletic analysis, I think we're talking an 8-10 hits a season increase and Kepler's bating average goes from the .217 he's averaged over the last two years to .235 - .240. Better, but still 4th OF material. Max doesn't get to the .270 range until he hits the ball better to LF. At age 30, that seems like a long shot. Besides, even if Kepler hit .250-.260 with his other stats, that's a guy who you always looking to upgrade from in a corner OF position because of his lack of power.  He's a classic 4th OF or platoon guy - Great glove, professional ABs, doesn't quite hit enough overall to start, and can't hit same sided pitching. 

I like Kepler on the team as a 4th OF who plays CF when Buxton is out or DHs. But he HAS to play CF to be a real asset. I don't like him as an everyday starter and I really don't like him hitting below the 7th spot in the order. I like him the best as a guy we package in a trade for an above average SP or rock solid reliever, but that's a whole 'nother issue. 

[jorgenswest]

To hit .250 Kepler would need to get 9 more hits across the season. That would be 1 or 2 a month.

I answered the original question I don’t know. The Twins better know. The game is going to change with the shift rules and base sizes. They need to be ahead of the curve.

[Shobae]

7 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I

Interesting numbers in the Analyst article. The Athletic was not so complementary, It estimated that guys like Seager and Kepler would only get another 1 or 2 hits a month because the SS would be an inch on the left side and the 2B should be right where these guys hit the ball. The Athletic analysis seems to be better supported by actual experience at the AA level according to the article. I tend to agree with the Athletic analysis, I think we're talking an 8-10 hits a season increase and Kepler's bating average goes from the .217 he's averaged over the last two years to .235 - .240. Better, but still 4th OF material. Max doesn't get to the .270 range until he hits the ball better to LF. At age 30, that seems like a long shot. Besides, even if Kepler hit .250-.260 with his other stats, that's a guy who you always looking to upgrade from in a corner OF position because of his lack of power.  He's a classic 4th OF or platoon guy - Great glove, professional ABs, doesn't quite hit enough overall to start, and can't hit same sided pitching. 

I like Kepler on the team as a 4th OF who plays CF when Buxton is out or DHs. But he HAS to play CF to be a real asset. I don't like him as an everyday starter and I really don't like him hitting below the 7th spot in the order. I like him the best as a guy we package in a trade for an above average SP or rock solid reliever, but that's a whole 'nother issue. 

Yeah the Athletics numbers seem to line up with those being reported here in fangraphs. They show that the shift actually doesn't have a very noticeable affect overall on batted balls or any type of batted ball. I'd recommend the piece for anyone who wants a data based look at the shift instead of guess work and conjecture. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-banning-the-shift-does-and-does-not-accomplish/

[Twins GFP]

20 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I

Interesting numbers in the Analyst article. The Athletic was not so complementary, It estimated that guys like Seager and Kepler would only get another 1 or 2 hits a month because the SS would be an inch on the left side and the 2B should be right where these guys hit the ball. The Athletic analysis seems to be better supported by actual experience at the AA level according to the article. I tend to agree with the Athletic analysis, I think we're talking an 8-10 hits a season increase and Kepler's bating average goes from the .217 he's averaged over the last two years to .235 - .240. Better, but still 4th OF material. Max doesn't get to the .270 range until he hits the ball better to LF. At age 30, that seems like a long shot. Besides, even if Kepler hit .250-.260 with his other stats, that's a guy who you always looking to upgrade from in a corner OF position because of his lack of power.  He's a classic 4th OF or platoon guy - Great glove, professional ABs, doesn't quite hit enough overall to start, and can't hit same sided pitching. 

I like Kepler on the team as a 4th OF who plays CF when Buxton is out or DHs. But he HAS to play CF to be a real asset. I don't like him as an everyday starter and I really don't like him hitting below the 7th spot in the order. I like him the best as a guy we package in a trade for an above average SP or rock solid reliever, but that's a whole 'nother issue. 

I agree with most of what you are saying here.  The devil is in the details.  I am sure the Twins have their own analysis on Kepler and what change in the shift rules will do. 

I agree Kepler would have more value if they played him in CF more. 

Any 4th OF in the Twins organization would be expected to play probably 100+ games (the Buxton risk).  With the value Kepler brings and the fact the Twins know him, a few million dollars of cost over his potential replacement doesn't bother me.  The Twins bringing in another bat-first RF wouldn't bother me either,  I also don't think there is enough value here to have any real impact on a trade for a SP.

 

[jorgenswest]

Let’s suppose the Twins trade him and get a prospect in return. Do they then need to  spend money on a corner OF in free agency? How much do they invest in Haniger?  MLBTR sees him as a possible qualifying offer candidate. He may be seeking much more than Kepler over a 2 or 3 commitment. Would that be wise? They have enough other players with troubling injury histories.

They have Kepler on a pretty reasonable one year deal and some young cost controlled starting candidates for the corners. If they believe in their corner candidates enough I would trade Kepler and spend that money elsewhere. If they believe he gets that 1-2 more hits a month I would keep him. It may not seem so but 9 hits is significant. It would have brought his average to .250 last year. Kepler with his defense and that average will have more trade value at the deadline.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 10/28/2022 at 12:47 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I

Interesting numbers in the Analyst article. The Athletic was not so complementary, It estimated that guys like Seager and Kepler would only get another 1 or 2 hits a month because the SS would be an inch on the left side and the 2B should be right where these guys hit the ball. The Athletic analysis seems to be better supported by actual experience at the AA level according to the article. I tend to agree with the Athletic analysis, I think we're talking an 8-10 hits a season increase and Kepler's bating average goes from the .217 he's averaged over the last two years to .235 - .240. Better, but still 4th OF material. Max doesn't get to the .270 range until he hits the ball better to LF. At age 30, that seems like a long shot. Besides, even if Kepler hit .250-.260 with his other stats, that's a guy who you always looking to upgrade from in a corner OF position because of his lack of power.  He's a classic 4th OF or platoon guy - Great glove, professional ABs, doesn't quite hit enough overall to start, and can't hit same sided pitching. 

I like Kepler on the team as a 4th OF who plays CF when Buxton is out or DHs. But he HAS to play CF to be a real asset. I don't like him as an everyday starter and I really don't like him hitting below the 7th spot in the order. I like him the best as a guy we package in a trade for an above average SP or rock solid reliever, but that's a whole 'nother issue. 

Agreed on your (and the Athletic’s) hitting analysis vs. the article that said 50 hits over 2.5 seasons. He might see 5-10 more hits per year, and agreed, that’s 4th outfielder hitting.

the thing is, he’s not a CF. He hasn’t played more than a few games per season there in 3 years, even with Buxton being there half-time.

Also Kepler was pretty bad in CF. -1 OAA in 9 innings last year. 0 in 22 games last year, -1 in 14 innings 2020. UZR150 -64 last year.

Prior to 2020, he was fine in CF, but clearly over 3 years, he’s no more a CF than a first baseman.

 

[Guest]

Kep's uniform number should be 43....

[Kendel]

The way to beat the shift is no secret. Spray the ball all over the field. Easier said than done. It is a big reason guys who can do it, have a chance at batting titles. My question is, if banning the shift helps most hitters, how much does it hurt the ones that can beat the shift? Does it limit advantages of guys like Luis Arraez and Alex Kirilloff? They hit it all over the place. Is that skill going to be worth less?

[ashbury]

On 10/29/2022 at 9:34 AM, jorgenswest said:

Let’s suppose the Twins trade him and get a prospect in return. Do they then need to  spend money on a corner OF in free agency? How much do they invest in Haniger?  MLBTR sees him as a possible qualifying offer candidate. He may be seeking much more than Kepler over a 2 or 3 commitment. Would that be wise? They have enough other players with troubling injury histories.

Would we be happier with Haniger plus this unspecified prospect, than with Kepler at sort of similar dollars on a shorter contract?

And if so, why wouldn't this other team just go ahead and sign Haniger, and keep their own prospect?

[RpR]

Haniger for Kepler, a whiffaholi with less fielding skill, my, my, my.