Article: The Fifth Starter

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1307-The-Fifth-Starter

[Alex]

I'd like to see Gibson start in AAA, much for the same reason I'd have liked to have seen Dozier, Parmalee last year (and Hicks this year, too, though I know we disagree on that one) start and have success in AAA before moving up. With the way this team is shaping up, there's no reason not to make sure these guys are ready.

 

Frankly, to see how the Twins were going to mold their pitching staff was one of the most exciting things about this offseason, but when we make one exciting, interesting addition (Worley) and our #3 starter is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, who starts behind him among those I listed below is relatively moot, not to mention depressing. I have hope for Hendriks, but he's struggled, but I don't see how they deny him a spot in this rotation.

 

I'd pick one of the guys that pitched last year like Deduno or Devries, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's Duensing or Swarzak as a short term hold out.

 

How exciting is that? That sound I hear the summer breeze gently brushing 20,000 empty seats.....

[Shane Wahl]

Good article and I think you are right about those four. And I agree with those four (given the obvious Correia disclaimer). Pelfrey won't be ready. And I believe that since Kyle Gibson is going to be on an innings limit, there is no reason to not keep him at AAA on a stronger innings limit there. I would rather have him from June through September than shut in down in August (just in case some miracle happens and Miguel Cabrera gets injured for the year (or Prince or Justin) and the Twins are not terrible eventually in the season later on). That would leave, for April, Rich Harden, Sam Deduno, and Cole DeVries left to honestly vie for the 5th spot in the rotation. That is not great, but it isn't nearly as bad as the April 2012 situation ended up being.

[Top Gun]

Devries, It's too bad the Twins won't sign a couple more pitchers, because I don't even see one of the starting five making it a full season.

[Brandon]

DeVries was pretty consistant last year. He just can't pitch deep into games very often. I would like to see him get 4-6 starts to see if he can continue to improve and make a go of it for a few seasons.

 

I have no interest in seeing Duensing or Swarzak start, Dedunno is also deserving of a few starts too, unless the Twins decide to add another starting pitcher .

 

Gibson needs to start in the minors. At least thats how i feel at this moment. I am ok with him starting in the majors as he will be limited and could be shut down by August.

[fairweather]

I think Gibson starts the season in the BP. I think that's the best way for Kyle to get his feet wet slowly while truly limiting his innings for the first 6 weeks of the season. I think they want him working with Andy and Bobby from day 1. My money is on Duensing starting the season in the rotation and going to the BP when Gibson enters the rotation. Remember the Twins told Duensing and Swarzak to prepare as if they were going to be starters in the coming season. The Twins bounce Duensing from the rotation to the BP or vice a versa every season why would this year be any different?

[beckmt]

Harden if he's healthy. He has #1 or #2 stuff. Would like to see Correia take Swarzak's spot, and have Gibson and Pelfrey in the rotation.

Expect it to be Hendricks, but this may be his last chance as more talent is coming up the chain fairly rapidly.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I find it very difficult to believe that Harden will be ready.

Deduno is a wild card, but his numbers for Sept/Oct were pretty good. I'd like to see what he can do in the starting rotation.

I really like Duensing, but he has too much trouble with RH batters.

[Drtwins]

I agree with the starting predictions for the most part, baring any injuries Diamond, Worley, Correia, and Hendriks should start the season in the rotation. The fifth spot will go to someone that wasn't mentioned in the article Rich Harden. However, If he hasn't completely recovered from rotator cuff surgery or has any setbacks I hope Deduno can follow-up on his strong finish last season and win the final spot.

 

By the time Pelfrey is ready to take a spot in the rotation (May/June) either Harden will be injured or Correia will have pitched so poorly they will move him to the bullpen. Gibson will be ready to start on the big league club around the all-star break taking the spot of whoever has been the least effective by the mid-summer classic.

 

Post all-star game rotation: Diamond, Worley, Pelfrey, Gibson, Hendriks (Deduno would be the replacement if any of these pitchers are injured)

[Jim Crikket]

Yeah, I'm a little surprised Harden wouldn't even be mentioned as a possibility. Is he likely to claim that spot? Probably not, but I really don't think there is anyone you'd say is "likely" at this point. If I had to bet money, I'd probably go with DeVries or Deduno, but I'd want some odds, regardless of who I picked. There is no clear favorite.

 

On Blackburn, everyone seems to write that this surgery rules him out, but does it? Wasn't it arthroscopic surgery on his wrist or forearm? Laid up 6 weeks leads him to last week of February. I have no idea, but is it really impossible that he would be recovered five weeks after that? Again, he isn't "likely" to be in the opening rotation and certainly less likely than some others, but are we being too quick to rule it out?

 

EDIT: I also just want to say that with all the piling on people (including myself at times) have done on Correia, I'm starting to seriously root for the guy to do well and shut us all up.

[SweetOne69]

I think Gibson starts the season in the BP. I think that's the best way for Kyle to get his feet wet slowly while truly limiting his innings for the first 6 weeks of the season. I think they want him working with Andy and Bobby from day 1. My money is on Duensing starting the season in the rotation and going to the BP when Gibson enters the rotation. Remember the Twins told Duensing and Swarzak to prepare as if they were going to be starters in the coming season. The Twins bounce Duensing from the rotation to the BP or vice a versa every season why would this year be any different?

 

I think that this is the worst thing that you can do to Gibson. But putting him in the BP he loses arm strength and it messes with his routine as he has no idea if/when he is going to pitch.

 

With all reports of him being on a 140-150 innings limit, by letting him pitch in AAA you can better control his innings limit without killing your bullpen. You let him pitch 4-5 innings/start for 2 months (10 starts), then when you bring him up in June he can still have 100 innings remaining and can go 5-6 innings out of the gate. That way he can stay in his routine of pitching every 5th game.

[nicksaviking]

EDIT: I also just want to say that with all the piling on people (including myself at times) have done on Correia, I'm starting to seriously root for the guy to do well and shut us all up.

 

I hear you, I pile on as much as anyone and I can recognize we aren't giving him a fair chance. I think it's safe to say that any vitriol directed at Correia is misguided as we are actually just disappointed in the poor decision by the front office and not the man himself.

 

Still if he proves us wrong and succeeds, Terry Ryan won't learn from this and it may encourage him to make similar signings in the future.

[jmlease1]

I like the idea of Gibson as the 5th starter and here's why: it's a way for him to pitch through September without over-stressing his arm and keeping him to a reasonable innings count. As the 5th starter he'll get skipped occasionally, giving him some breaks throughout the year, but it'll give him a chance to prove that he can make it through a long season and prepared him to move up and be a #2 starter in 2014.

 

Harden is the other possibility: being the 5th guy might be the best way to keep his ragged arm healthy too.

[SweetOne69]

I like the idea of Gibson as the 5th starter and here's why: it's a way for him to pitch through September without over-stressing his arm and keeping him to a reasonable innings count. As the 5th starter he'll get skipped occasionally, giving him some breaks throughout the year, but it'll give him a chance to prove that he can make it through a long season and prepared him to move up and be a #2 starter in 2014.

 

Harden is the other possibility: being the 5th guy might be the best way to keep his ragged arm healthy too.

 

Gardy rarely skips pitchers. The fifth starter would start every 5th game just like the #1 starter.

[Steve Penz]

I would hope for Deduno. His historical stats tell his story correctly so we know what we are getting but at least the upside is there. If he somehow could gain a bit more control then he could be effective. With Devries you dont have that. Neither are a long term solution but if i have to choose then I am going with the higher upside.

[CDog]

With all reports of him being on a 140-150 innings limit, .

 

I've been wondering about this a lot and haven't seen any reports at all. There was a gap in my coverage, though, so maybe I missed it. Where has this been covered?

[Steve Lein]

I'm a little concerned Rich Harden's name didn't even show up in your article... I'd rather have him in the rotation over anyone else not named Diamond/Worley until it's proven he can not do it (which I hope doesn't happen).

[CDog]

On Blackburn, everyone seems to write that this surgery rules him out, but does it? Wasn't it arthroscopic surgery on his wrist or forearm? Laid up 6 weeks leads him to last week of February. I have no idea, but is it really impossible that he would be recovered five weeks after that? Again, he isn't "likely" to be in the opening rotation and certainly less likely than some others, but are we being too quick to rule it out?

 

Wouldn't it likely take a while after being in a cast just to get up strength and put him a fair amount behind? I've actually never been in a cast (knock on wood), so I'm guessing from some anecdotal experience but mostly ignorance here.

[Jim Crikket]

I hear you, I pile on as much as anyone and I can recognize we aren't giving him a fair chance. I think it's safe to say that any vitriol directed at Correia is misguided as we are actually just disappointed in the poor decision by the front office and not the man himself.

 

Still if he proves us wrong and succeeds, Terry Ryan won't learn from this and it may encourage him to make similar signings in the future.

 

Or... if he proves us wrong and succeeds, maybe we'll have to admit Terry Ryan is better at judging baseball talent than we are.

 

Nah... that'll never happen.

[Jim Crikket]

Wouldn't it likely take a while after being in a cast just to get up strength and put him a fair amount behind? I've actually never been in a cast (knock on wood), so I'm guessing from some anecdotal experience but mostly ignorance here.

 

It would certainly put Blackburn behind, but I'm just questioning whether it puts him so far behind that he couldn't possibly regain strength and command in five weeks time. If this happened during the season, I guess I envision a pitcher spending 2-3 weeks after cast removal rehabbing and then getting 2-3 starts in the minors on rehab assignment. But, like you, I'm just guessing, too. I don't have a clue what his injury even was and how long it should be expected to take to recover fully.

[ashbury]

I'm a little concerned Rich Harden's name didn't even show up in your article

 

I fear that the only thing the Rich Harden of 2013 has in common with the Rich Harden of 2004 is, well, the name itself. The track record is that if he's in the rotation, he'll be in and out of it. I am very optimistic that the braintrust can figure out a useful role for him and get productive innings without disrupting anyone else. I just don't see it as being in the rotation, except maybe later on in the year.

[Mike Sixel]

Gibson for 4 innings a start in Minnesota....why not? They will be carrying a ton of pitchers anyway. He will throw just as hard in AAA ball. If you plan for it, you can get Duensing in that game at the right time. And you see what Gibson has. No chance it happens, it is not how MLB teams run today, and I do not see the Twins as innovators....but that is what I would do. It should 100% not be Duensing....he should be in the pen, where he is effective.

[CDog]

It would certainly put Blackburn behind, but I'm just questioning whether it puts him so far behind that he couldn't possibly regain strength and command in five weeks time. If this happened during the season, I guess I envision a pitcher spending 2-3 weeks after cast removal rehabbing and then getting 2-3 starts in the minors on rehab assignment. But, like you, I'm just guessing, too. I don't have a clue what his injury even was and how long it should be expected to take to recover fully.

 

I guess I'm thinking (guessing?) that since he wouldn't have any of the typical spring training arm-strength-building and command-refining and all that stuff, that after building up that "just out of a cast" strength that he'd THEN have to basically start spring training. As opposed to if it happened in the season, he would already have had some of that building done. Meh...yeah, still just guessing.

[Nick Nelson]

I didn't include Harden's name on the list because I consider him an extreme longshot to start the year in the rotation. The guy didn't throw a single inning last year. He's going to open in the minors or, at best, in the bullpen.

[cmathewson]

Both Gibson and Pelfrey will be limited to 120 innings or so. Why waste Gibson's innings at AAA? Why not start him as the fifth starter while Pelfrey works his way back in the bullpen (perhaps on the DL to start the year and just throwing bullpens with Cuellar)? Then swap them when Gibson hits 100 innings? Even if they sign Saunders, I'd rather have that duo than Hendriks.

 

As to Harden, he is healthier now than he has been in three years. The underlying problem that eventually led to surgery happened in 2007. He pitched with it, and pitched pretty well with it, until 2010. He's a year removed from surgery. I'm sure he'll need to establish himself in AAA. But he could be a dark horse later in the year. His name at least should have been mentioned.

[Nick Nelson]

Both Gibson and Pelfrey will be limited to 120 innings or so.

 

Where have you heard this about Pelfrey? It seems unlikely to me, since he has incentives in his contract and while I haven't seen the specifics I doubt they start below 120 innings. He's going to want to pitch as much as he can and since it's a one-year deal, the Twins don't have much reason not to let him.

 

As to Harden, he is healthier now than he has been in three years. The underlying problem that eventually led to surgery happened in 2007. He pitched with it, and pitched pretty well with it, until 2010. He's a year removed from surgery. I'm sure he'll need to establish himself in AAA. But he could be a dark horse later in the year. His name at least should have been mentioned.

 

I guess I probably wasn't clear enough about this, but the topic I was trying to tackle was who is going to be the fifth starter at the beginning of the year. If I was talking about guys who might step in at some point, I certainly would have included Harden and probably a few others.

[LewFordLives]

DeVries! When the Twins were desperate for starting pitching last year DeVries was the only one who stepped up and kept the Twins in games on a consistent basis. Not Hendriks, not Deduno, not Walters, and definitely not Blackburn. He's earned consideration for that last spot.

[Rosterman]

It will come down to Pelfrey, Haren and Hendriks. Possibly Pelfrey will start the season on the dl and Haren in the minors (they would have to find a 40-man spot for him). Gibson will start in long-relief in the minors and become a starter if/when Haren moves to the big leagues. Deduno is a long, long shot...not being on the 40-man.

 

The Twins have very limited 40-man movement. They have a Rule 5. They have Wood or Roeinke taking spaces who need to stay or be removed. They can drop DeVries and probably not have him claimed by anyone. Swarzak is out of options.

 

Butera could always be sent away to free a roster spot, but think the Twins want Hermann to spend more time at AAA.

 

And everything is blown apart if the Twins sign Saunders.

 

Almost more curious to see who is in the rotation at Rochester, assuming Pelfrey and Haren would start there, Blackburn on a delay, Walters, Deduno, DeVries, maybe May and Meyer, Vasquez and Martis in the mix, maybe Hermsen. Too many bodies there. Maybe the Twins needed to Rule 5 a catching prospect or back-up infielder, of even another, heaven forbid, outfielder!

[Mike Sixel]

Why waste Gibson in AAA? If he is one of the five best starters, isn't it better to have all his innings in the majors?

[twinsnorth49]

I think Devries will start the season and eventually give way to Pelfrey. Gibson will likely surface in June and move Correia or Pelfrey the pen. I would love for it to be Harden but no way is he ready, if he is by June we could be lloking at, Diamond, Worley, Harden, Gibson and Hendriks, hmmmmmm.