Free Agent Pitching

[denarded]

Gleeman on The Athletic ranked the top 20 Free Agent Pitchers. Odorizzi at 6 (behind Hyun-Jin Ryu, Age 33) Pineda at 8 and Gibson at 13. Granted, that's his take, but that doesn't leave much to improve with what is potentially in-house. I just don't see a Cole/Straussberg/Bumgardner in our price range.  Is Wheeler our best bet?

[Vanimal46]

Cole is going to get 7, maybe 8 years. The Twins will never offer that many years for a pitcher.

 

Strasburg may "opt-out", but I feel pretty confident he is remaining with Washington.

 

Bumgarner and Wheeler are my top priorities. Get one of them at least, re-sign Odorizzi and Pineda. Find a project or 2, and they should be okay for the rotation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Cole is going to get 7, maybe 8 years. The Twins will never offer that many years for a pitcher.

Strasburg may "opt-out", but I feel pretty confident he is remaining with Washington.

Bumgarner and Wheeler are my top priorities. Get one of them at least, re-sign Odorizzi and Pineda. Find a project or 2, and they should be okay for the rotation.

 

Given the way the market played out the last few years, I wouldn't assume he gets a 7 year deal. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he only gets 5 or 6.

[Vanimal46]

Given the way the market played out the last few years, I wouldn't assume he gets a 7 year deal. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he only gets 5 or 6.

Maybe. Since he's a Boras client I'm sure he will sit on his epic season results until the demands are met.

[akmanak]

I would also assume the Twins spend very little yet again this season. They will use Washington as an example on why not to blow a bunch of money on pitching.

[Vanimal46]

I would also assume the Twins spend very little yet again this season. They will use Washington as an example on why not to blow a bunch of money on pitching.

That would be a terrible example because Washington spent $77.8 million on their top 3 pitchers in 2019.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That would be a terrible example because Washington spent $77.8 million on their top 3 pitchers in 2019.

 

that and the Twins could conceivably have about 70M to spend after their arb totals are met... There's no reason they cannot put the payroll in the 140M range given how they played this season and the open window in the central. 

[DocBauer]

I would pay $30M for Cole. I might even spend a little more. I might go 5yrs, probably have to. I might even go 6, especially if I could front load a little bit.

 

But $40+M and 7 or 8 years, etc, I'm just out. No matter how good he is, nobody is worth that kind of contract, IMO. No matter how good he is, he still plays every 5 days. And that's not a shot at him, it's just a reality.

 

It's still a team sport. Remember a few years ago when King Felix had such a phenomenal year with Seattle he won the Cy Young with a losing record on a team with a losing record?

 

I'm not about NOT spending or NOT trading, I just want to be smart about it and have the deepest, strongest, contending team I can have. For now, and for as many years as possible

[FlauerPauer]

 

I would also assume the Twins spend very little yet again this season. They will use Washington as an example on why not to blow a bunch of money on pitching.

 

That's fine to not spend a ton of money, but it would not be fine to not spend the "prospect money" the Twins possess to upgrade the rotation.

[beckmt]

I think that getting Cole might be possible.  If the Twins started at 7/240, that would make if difficult for the Yankees and Dodgers to get in without have significant luxery tax implications.  I agree a second liner is more likely, but would like to see the Twins go large. 

[Thrylos]

The Twins have to explore trades as well, before their prospects lose value...

[Twodogs]

If Cole stays in Houston, I don't believe that Texas has much on an income tax hit? I wonder if players think about that much when they decide who to play for and they are signing big contracts? I know Minnesota is quite high like maybe in the top 5 or 6 heaviest taxed states?

[Mike Sixel]

 

If Cole stays in Houston, I don't believe that Texas has much on an income tax hit? I wonder if players think about that much when they decide who to play for and they are signing big contracts? I know Minnesota is quite high like maybe in the top 5 or 6 heaviest taxed states?

 

They pay taxes based on where games are played, so we are looking at around 1.5MM, give or take, in tax differences between MN and TX, for a 30MM contract. That's not money to be ignored, but it's probably not the deciding factor. Given the number of players in MLB and the NBA that sign in NY and CA, I'm guessing taxes are not the main factor.

 

*those are SUPER ROUGH estimates......but I took the highest MN rate, divided by 2, and multiplied by 30MM.....

[Post-Concussive Blues]

If Cole stays in Houston, I don't believe that Texas has much on an income tax hit? I wonder if players think about that much when they decide who to play for and they are signing big contracts? I know Minnesota is quite high like maybe in the top 5 or 6 heaviest taxed states?

Players pay state income tax wherever the game is played, on top of federal taxes. So 50% Minnesota, 50% other locations. This does have large financial implications. The classic example was the 2012 Marlins - Blue Jays trade where players went from 0% state income tax in Florida to high taxes in Ontario.

 

This is a brief, interesting article on the subject:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2012/11/26/taxing-blue-jays-marlins-and-other-pro-athletes/

[The Wise One]

The couple of early post season rankings had Odorizi as around the sixth best pitcher, Pineda not too far behind. Free agent pitching is not like going down to the Super store center and everyone can find a decent pitcher. Supply and demand will work to drive the price up. Sanity will keep the years down, Boras be damned. Just ask Keuchel last year and Lynn the year before. 

On the other hand, the dollar variety pitchers should be a dime a dozen. Who will find the Mike Fiers from the scrap heap pool? 

[TopGunn#22]

I agree with beckmt, the Twins should go hard right out of the gate at 7 yrs/240 million.  They can afford this to get one of the top 2-3 pitchers in the game and it puts pressure on the Dodgers and the Yanks with the luxury tax.  The Twins are uniquely positioned to do this.  Their core is young and affordable.  They have Cruz for one more year and he will probably produce far beyond his contract.  All thru the Johan Santana, Mauer, Morneau etc... years they NEVER did this.  It's time to FINALLY step up and make some noise.  They could go 7/240 million for Cole and STILL afford to make a play for Wheeler.  (Cole, Berrios, Odorizzi, Wheeler and then Dobnak) would be pretty awesome.  *The Twins make a QO to Odorizzi and retain him.  They could also trade Rosario for a SP because I believe a stop gap LF'er like Av. Garcia can hold down the fort until either Larnach or Kiriloff hits the big leagues and makes us forgot all about Eddie.  Get a stud like Cole to lead your staff.  Continue to develop Berrios and keep an eye on Graterol and Balazovic and the Twins could be a formidable team for many, many years.  But for goodness sake Ownership/Front Office...step up to the plate and SWING BIG for once !!!

[DocBauer]

I think that getting Cole might be possible. If the Twins started at 7/240, that would make if difficult for the Yankees and Dodgers to get in without have significant luxery tax implications. I agree a second liner is more likely, but would like to see the Twins go large.

NOT disagreeing with you a bit. And I'm not saying annual value is wrong. But are you really comfortable paying that much, for that long, for a guy who pitches every 5th day...no matter how good...knowing his last couple of years will probably be mediocre? And don't the Twins also have to think about sustainability and future signings for guys on hand?

 

Assuming the Twins offered this, and assuming he would agree and want to play here vs Houston or return home to CA, I'd feel more comfortable if we could front load the deal the first few years for flexibility.

 

How about an opt out after 3yrs written in?

[wyowib]

 

I agree with beckmt, the Twins should go hard right out of the gate at 7 yrs/240 million.  They can afford this to get one of the top 2-3 pitchers in the game and it puts pressure on the Dodgers and the Yanks with the luxury tax.  The Twins are uniquely positioned to do this.  Their core is young and affordable.  They have Cruz for one more year and he will probably produce far beyond his contract.  All thru the Johan Santana, Mauer, Morneau etc... years they NEVER did this.  It's time to FINALLY step up and make some noise.  They could go 7/240 million for Cole and STILL afford to make a play for Wheeler.  (Cole, Berrios, Odorizzi, Wheeler and then Dobnak) would be pretty awesome.  *The Twins make a QO to Odorizzi and retain him.  They could also trade Rosario for a SP because I believe a stop gap LF'er like Av. Garcia can hold down the fort until either Larnach or Kiriloff hits the big leagues and makes us forgot all about Eddie.  Get a stud like Cole to lead your staff.  Continue to develop Berrios and keep an eye on Graterol and Balazovic and the Twins could be a formidable team for many, many years.  But for goodness sake Ownership/Front Office...step up to the plate and SWING BIG for once !!!

The Angels will beat any offer any team presents (dollars, years, geographic location...).  They have financial flexibility, made and won the play for Ohtani, and don't want to waste having Trout.  The Twins should focus free agency on building a solid core (Odor and Pineda); with the hope that they pull the trigger on the over the top trade.  It's the reality of being a fan of non-large market team.  

[beckmt]

 

NOT disagreeing with you a bit. And I'm not saying annual value is wrong. But are you really comfortable paying that much, for that long, for a guy who pitches every 5th day...no matter how good...knowing his last couple of years will probably be mediocre? And don't the Twins also have to think about sustainability and future signings for guys on hand?

Assuming the Twins offered this, and assuming he would agree and want to play here vs Houston or return home to CA, I'd feel more comfortable if we could front load the deal the first few years for flexibility.

How about an opt out after 3yrs written in?

Could see and opt out after 3 years and after 4 years,  would need at least 3 to make it worthwhile.  Cole I believe is only 29 so should have 3 - 4 good years ahead(baring injury and normal Twins luck).

[beckmt]

 

The Angels will beat any offer any team presents (dollars, years, geographic location...).  They have financial flexibility, made and won the play for Ohtani, and don't want to waste having Trout.  The Twins should focus free agency on building a solid core (Odor and Pineda); with the hope that they pull the trigger on the over the top trade.  It's the reality of being a fan of non-large market team.  

 

After several bad big contracts (read Pujols for openers), do not know if Angels owner would agree to that big a contract.  If you are worried, then front end the contract knowing if Cole remains good he will opt out.  There are ways to make this painful for big market teams with salary cap issues.

[beckmt]

A QO to Oderizzi will show down the action there and guess the Twins will have a shot at resigning or Oderizzi just taking the QO.

[Jham]

 

NOT disagreeing with you a bit. And I'm not saying annual value is wrong. But are you really comfortable paying that much, for that long, for a guy who pitches every 5th day...no matter how good...knowing his last couple of years will probably be mediocre? And don't the Twins also have to think about sustainability and future signings for guys on hand?

Assuming the Twins offered this, and assuming he would agree and want to play here vs Houston or return home to CA, I'd feel more comfortable if we could front load the deal the first few years for flexibility.

How about an opt out after 3yrs written in?

This is a very Minnesota Twins-esq response and the reason we're always outside looking in on FA. Front loading a contract means you're actually paying more for the player because of interest and the future value of money. $35 mil now is worth more than $35 mil 7 years from now. Invest that same $35 mil at a modest 3.15% over seven years and you've got $43.5 mil after 7 years. $8 mil. $7 mil for 6 years. $5.1 mil for 5 years. Meanwhile the price of players is also going up. $35 mil won't be as much then either. Long guaranteed contracts = interest free financing. Front loading loses you money, although it may be more attractive to the player.
 

[DocBauer]

This is a very Minnesota Twins-esq response and the reason we're always outside looking in on FA. Front loading a contract means you're actually paying more for the player because of interest and the future value of money. $35 mil now is worth more than $35 mil 7 years from now. Invest that same $35 mil at a modest 3.15% over seven years and you've got $43.5 mil after 7 years. $8 mil. $7 mil for 6 years. $5.1 mil for 5 years. Meanwhile the price of players is also going up. $35 mil won't be as much then either. Long guaranteed contracts = interest free financing. Front loading loses you money, although it may be more attractive to the player.

 

But this not a mutual fund or 401K we are talking about. Nor are we talking about turnstiles bringing jn revenue because that is impossible to accurately predict.

 

We are talking about guaranteed dollars over a 6+ yr contract, possibly with an out clause. No matter how you look at the Twins payroll opportunity right now, their market is not the same as N.Y., Boston, Chicago, LA.

 

I don't think this is outside looking in at all, or a Twins-esque viewpoint. It is simply a HUGE contract that could be front loaded to entice a signing and provide additional flexibility in the latter years for contracts for other young players on extensions. My opt out idea is not unjque. It allows the player to maintain their contract, front loaded helps payroll in future years. But if said player decides to mkve on, you have, theoretically, quality players moving up and replace.

 

If I'm missing something here, then I am sorry for that.

[Jham]

But this not a mutual fund or 401K we are talking about. Nor are we talking about turnstiles bringing jn revenue because that is impossible to accurately predict.

 

We are talking about guaranteed dollars over a 6+ yr contract, possibly with an out clause. No matter how you look at the Twins payroll opportunity right now, their market is not the same as N.Y., Boston, Chicago, LA.

 

I don't think this is outside looking in at all, or a Twins-esque viewpoint. It is simply a HUGE contract that could be front loaded to entice a signing and provide additional flexibility in the latter years for contracts for other young players on extensions. My opt out idea is not unjque. It allows the player to maintain their contract, front loaded helps payroll in future years. But if said player decides to mkve on, you have, theoretically, quality players moving up and replace.

 

If I'm missing something here, then I am sorry for that.

No, I agree that it could entice a player. Just I don't see teams doing this because more years for lower AAV tends to make sense for top level players. If your mortgage charge 0% interest, you'd have no incentive to pay down your home faster. If a player was to front load, I think they'd rather just sign a shorter deal and hit FA again. Again, we just don't see that with top players.

[beckmt]

This is not difficult.  You have a team that has a core of very good players for the next 3 years (for most of them). You have a lot of interesting pitching and position players coming up in the farm system.  You can spike the payroll a little now, with the expectation it will level off or slightly go down without hurting you.

Therefore, sign Cole now (unless the price goes above $250 million for 7 years, at which time you are talking crazy money), QO Oderizzi, he will probably either take it or work a contract for like 3/$45, offer Pineda like 3/36 (this is a risk, but I feel it is fair)(he was on his way to much more before the suspension). Sign a couple of decent bullpen pieces (Romo, and one other(Smith, Becentes, Watson(if you're worried about the money))).  Call it a day.  Hold reliever contracts to 2 to 3 years.

If you fail to get a front end starter, then get 1 of the middle pool (Wheeler, Bumgardner) and hope to develop 2 - 3 of your own.  Would hope Oderizzi takes the QO, you will probably know more after 2020 on the development of the farm system pitchers.

[the_brute_squad]

Cole isn't in the conversation. He's going to stay in Houston or go home to California. Go all in for Baumgartner or Wheeler. Re-sign Odo and Pineda. Bring us Brusdar and you've got a solid rotation.

[Twodogs]

The Angels will beat any offer any team presents (dollars, years, geographic location...). They have financial flexibility, made and won the play for Ohtani, and don't want to waste having Trout. The Twins should focus free agency on building a solid core (Odor and Pineda); with the hope that they pull the trigger on the over the top trade. It's the reality of being a fan of non-large market team.

Well the Twins could hamstring teams like the Angels by making a huge offer to Cole. Say they offer 7/240 and the Angles will have to beat that because of who Cole's agent is. Then the Angles will have to go even higher and now they will have a tougher time going after much more. When you look at their obligations as far as Trout and Pujols, etc... They will start to run out of room. So with the Twins spending capability, they could make some crazy offers so as to harm the financial futures of some of these teams. I mean it would help the Twins in the long run if they use their spending capabilities to hamstring some of these teams in the future. If they don't seriously go in and hardly anyone else does either because they know he wants bto go to Cali then Angels could get a decent deal on Cole. I mean it will still be expensive, prob 7/240 or something like that, but if teams like the Twins throw down offers like that then teams like the Angels will have to beat those offers and that could set up system failure for teams like the Angles? I think the Twins need to bid on those guys with the idea that they probably won't get them, but that it will cause the Angels more harm in the future because the prices will get artificially driven up.

[Mike Sixel]

Chapman just agreed to effectively three years, 48 million. I'm guessing Odo is worth more than that....

 

Waiting until the perfect moment to acquire players means they may not be available at that time.....

[gman]

Most years signing 3 of the top 20 free agent pitchers would make most people excited. Based on history its probably not good enough but who really knows what will happen next year. I would be happy with adding Wheeler and Bumgarner to Odorrizi then leaving the number 5 to rookie pitchers.

[Twodogs]

Chapman just agreed to effectively three years, 48 million. I'm guessing Odo is worth more than that....

 

Waiting until the perfect moment to acquire players means they may not be available at that time.....

IDK, it's a tough call, I mean on one hand Odorizzi does get a lot of swings and misses but he rarely goes past 5 innings and they have had to pull him in the 4th a few times due to pitch counts, even with the lead? So I mean even if he pitches decently he is still a drag on our bullpen. Whereas Chapman has been a lights out closer most of his career. I am assuming he will be once again next year. Not sure beyond that. But I mean even with the same numbers if Odo averaged between 6 and 7 innings per start then yeah he'd be worth a lot. But 5 inning guys, I just don't know.