Jim Bowden (The Athletic) Trade Proposal for Twins

[Steven Buhr]

Over at the Athletic, Jim Bowden posted an article with his recommendations for trades that 5 AL contenders should make.

 

Now, granted, you can say what you will about Bowden (and I could say a lot), but his proposal for the Twins at least acknowledges that they should be looking to add both a starter and bullpen help as they gear up for the postseason.

 

Respecting their paywall, I won't go into any detail on his reasoning or other recommendations he makes, but I think his proposal for the Twins is fair game to post for discussion purposes.

 

With regard to the Twins, he suggested sending Brusdar Graterol and Nick Gordon to the Giants for Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith.

 

Personally, I don't think Graterol/Gordon get that deal done for the Twins, but I'm not sure how much more it would take.

 

What do you think? Who says "no" to that deal?

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Given the Twins' lack of starting depth past 2019, I'm loathe to let go of Graterol unless the front office sees something in him they don't like.

 

The Twins need at least three starters in 2020, as they only have Berrios and Perez under contract.

 

That's a lot of starting pitching to find in a single offseason.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

Given the Twins' lack of starting depth past 2019, I'm loathe to let go of Graterol unless the front office sees something in him they don't like.

 

The Twins need at least three starters in 2020, as they only have Berrios and Perez under contract.

 

That's a lot of starting pitching to find in a single offseason.

 

Good points. I would think that the Twins may look at bringing back Gibson and/or Odorizzi for the 2020 season, as there is not a ton of immediate help waiting in AAA. Some of the guys that could be under consideration just have not performed well enough this season, to this point, to be looked at seriously.

 

Plus, Perez is still a wild card. While he has been a nice surprise, I think treading lightly with expectations of him is the smart route to take.

[Guest]

 

Given the Twins' lack of starting depth past 2019, I'm loathe to let go of Graterol unless the front office sees something in him they don't like.

 

The Twins need at least three starters in 2020, as they only have Berrios and Perez under contract.

 

That's a lot of starting pitching to find in a single offseason.

Do you think Graterol is an option for 2020, though? If not, I'm not sure this deal changes that dynamic. Guess it would preclude you from trading Graterol for one or more guys you COULD get use from in 2020, though.

 

Maybe he'll surprise me and be ready to take that step next year. 

[Riverbrian]

If I'm the Giants... I take that deal before the Twins change their minds. 

 

If I'm the Twins... I say no. 

 

Both players are rentals. 

 

Any starting pitching acquisitions need to come with at least an extra year of control for the reasons that Brock lists above. The Twins really need to kill two birds with one stone here (Sorry Birdwatcher... I know you like Birds and are probably against stones used in that fashion). 

 

The Twins need starting pitching help this year and next. 

 

To trade with the Giants... I think you look at Smith by himself this trade deadline. The Twins should still target a starter in trade talks with other clubs but stay away from rentals. Rentals in the bullpen are fine this year. 

 

I disagree with Bowden.  

[jorgenswest]

If the Twins are serious about this year they are going to need to trade off some of the future. I think the Giants will find someone to give up a Graterol level pitching prospect for Bumgarner. Will it be the Twins?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Do you think Graterol is an option for 2020, though? If not, I'm not sure this deal changes that dynamic. Guess it would preclude you from trading Graterol for one or more guys you COULD get use from in 2020, though.

 

Maybe he'll surprise me and be ready to take that step next year. 

I'm iffy on him being ready next year but it's a possibility. Either way, the larger problem still exists in 2021, as Perez comes off the books that year.

[Riverbrian]

Also if I'm the Giants... I think teams will cap the value of the prospects they are willing to give up in a single deal.  

 

I believe the Giants will get more in total if they package Bumgarner and Smith separately. 

 

. 

[DocBauer]

Nope, I don't make that deal. And for all the reasons listed above.

 

Barring a big surprise, I believe Gibson will be re-signed. I'm a little less sure on Odorizzi as he picked the perfect time to have his career year/take the next step forward. Unless demands are just crazy, the money should be there.

 

But a PAIR of rentals? I just wouldn't make a trade like that especially giving up an arm like Graterol. (Not necessarily because I think he'll be part of the rotation in 2020).

 

I could live with a pair of bullpen rentals, but really feel at least one should be for beyond this season. I think that is the FO thinking as well.

[crapforks]

Unrelated to this exact trade proposal- I really hope the Twins have plans outside of Stewart, Gonsalves, Graterol, Smeltzer, etc. for the rotation next year. I agree that a rotation acquisition should be more than a rental to finish up the season. The potential bullpen acquisitions can all be rentals because that would help cap the cost of acquiring and (ideally) they would be shopping for bullpen arms in the offseason as well.

[Dantes929]

 

If I'm the Giants... I take that deal before the Twins change their minds. 

 

If I'm the Twins... I say no. 

 

Both players are rentals. 

 

Any starting pitching acquisitions need to come with at least an extra year of control for the reasons that Brock lists above. The Twins really need to kill two birds with one stone here (Sorry Birdwatcher... I know you like Birds and are probably against stones used in that fashion). 

 

The Twins need starting pitching help this year and next. 

 

To trade with the Giants... I think you look at Smith by himself this trade deadline. The Twins should still target a starter in trade talks with other clubs but stay away from rentals. Rentals in the bullpen are fine this year. 

 

I disagree with Bowden.  

I have no problem with Pineda as our 5th starter and if we make the playoffs he goes to the pen.   If all we did for the rest of the season was get Smith I would be happy as a clam.    If we give up prospects for a starter it should at least be with a season or two more of control.   I agree with Riverbrian.

[Riverbrian]

 

Nope, I don't make that deal. And for all the reasons listed above.

Barring a big surprise, I believe Gibson will be re-signed. I'm a little less sure on Odorizzi as he picked the perfect time to have his career year/take the next step forward. Unless demands are just crazy, the money should be there.

But a PAIR of rentals? I just wouldn't make a trade like that especially giving up an arm like Graterol. (Not necessarily because I think he'll be part of the rotation in 2020).

I could live with a pair of bullpen rentals, but really feel at least one should be for beyond this season. I think that is the FO thinking as well.

 

Yep a trade of Bumgarner for Graterol would be paying twice. 

 

If you are paying your third ranked prospect for a rental... What do you have left to spend in the off-season. Lewis? Kirilloff? 

 

Once the off-season hits and the team turns it attention to 2020. They will be looking at 4 SP Free Agents and they will have to pay again to fill those 4 slots or at least 3 of them.  

 

Pay a Graterol for a pitcher with an extra year of control. The same prospect traded and you only have 3 SP slots to fill in 2020 or at least 2 of them.   

 

Trading for Bumgarner would be almost irresponsible. And I would love to have Bumgarner. 

 

 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

I wouldn't target rentals, there are plenty of relievers likely available who will have more control and probably less helium than Smith.

 

Not that I wouldn’t take him, but there are others Id prefer.

[USAFChief]

Yep a trade of Bumgarner for Graterol would be paying twice.

 

If you are paying your third ranked prospect for a rental... What do you have left to spend in the off-season. Lewis? Kirilloff?

 

Once the off-season hits and the team turns it attention to 2020. They will be looking at 4 SP Free Agents and they will have to pay again to fill those 4 slots or at least 3 of them.

 

Pay a Graterol for a pitcher with an extra year of control. The same prospect traded and you only have 3 SP slots to fill in 2020 or at least 2 of them.

 

Trading for Bumgarner would be almost irresponsible. And I would love to have Bumgarner.

I believe both Gibson and Odo could be given a qualifying offer, no?

 

The 2020 situation isnt quite so clearcut.

 

Also, Graterol ishighly unlikely to be of much help in 2020.

 

All that said, I might still pass, I'm not sold on Mad Bum.

[glunn]

I wonder what is the Giants' greatest area of need.

[Riverbrian]

I believe both Gibson and Odo could be given a qualifying offer, no?

 

The 2020 situation isnt quite so clearcut.

 

Also, Graterol ishighly unlikely to be of much help in 2020.

 

All that said, I might still pass, I'm not sold on Mad Bum.

They can offer the QO but that still won’t remove the question marks on their foreheads.

 

I have no expectation for Graterol or anyone’s arrival. Just working on the assumption based on ranking of the best player. The value he would return in comparison to similar ranked prospects.

 

If we blow that value (Graterol) on a rental. We will have to blow Kiriloff or Lewis in the off season to replace the rental.

 

You just doubled your price unnecessarily.

[yarnivek1972]

I believe both Gibson and Odo could be given a qualifying offer, no?

 

The 2020 situation isnt quite so clearcut.

 

Also, Graterol ishighly unlikely to be of much help in 2020.

 

All that said, I might still pass, I'm not sold on Mad Bum.

Why would either accept? Both would get far more guaranteed money through a multi-year deal. Especially in the case of Gibson. At his age, this is likely his only chance to make bank. Odorizzi is a couple years younger. But he also has a considerably better overall track record than Gibson. If he finishes with a sub 3 ERA, he will likely be THE FA pitcher this offseason based on his age and ability to miss bats.

[mudcat14]

 

I wonder what is the Giants' greatest area of need.

 

How many different OF's have they picked up off the heap, or from other's this season?  A lot.  Cave would have some appeal to them as a piece in a trade.

[jorgenswest]

I hope they take a run at Bumgarner. There is a lot to like here.

 

His velocity remains at his career rate. He has a history of success in big games. He currently pitches for a team that isn’t playing any meaningful games and has a poor defense behind him.

 

For fear of starting another Verlander thread I think there are some parallels in situation and performance. Verlander’s ERA at trade was 3.82 (87 ERA-) and Bumgarner 3.83 (91 ERA-). I really think playing for a competitive team with a good defense helped get the best out of Verlander and will out of Bumgarner.

 

The Twins also have a competitive advantage in the market here because they aren’t on the no trade list.

 

Go get him.

[USAFChief]

They can offer the QO but that still won’t remove the question marks on their foreheads.

 

I have no expectation for anyone’s Graterol or anyone’s arrival. Just working on the assumption based on ranking of the value he would return.

 

If we below Graterol on a rental. We will have to blow Kiriloff or Lewis in the off season.

 

You just doubled your price unnecessarily.

I dont think Graterol has any bearing on 2020. It's unlikely a winter trade will be of the magnitude to take trading Graterol. Or Lewis or Kiriloff for that matter.

 

And I hope in this of all seasons, the present trumps worrying about the future anyway.

[crapforks]

 

How many different OF's have they picked up off the heap, or from other's this season?  A lot.  Cave would have some appeal to them as a piece in a trade.

I don't think Cave has as much value as people seem to think. Even when it comes to the outfield starved Giants. If the Twins are going after some of the Giants bigger trade chips, I can guarantee Cave is not the player the Giants are asking about first. Or second. Or third. Cave surely has value and I can't imagine him not playing everyday in the SF outfield, but he's a high-floor/low-ceiling 26yr old corner outfielder who can play center in a pinch. A useful major leaguer, but not the kind of upside you cherish when looking to sell pieces. 

I would imagine including Cave in a major trade to SF would be more about clearing 40-man space/giving him an opportunity. Put together a reasonable trade proposal which includes Cave and it probably has to be just as tempting without him.

[Riverbrian]

I dont think Graterol has any bearing on 2020. It's unlikely a winter trade will be of the magnitude to take trading Graterol. Or Lewis or Kiriloff for that matter.

 

And I hope in this of all seasons, the present trumps worrying about the future anyway.

I’m trying to type outside in the rain.

 

I will never count on prospect when making future plans. Never... the prospect arrived when he arrives. In no way am I considering Graterol for 2020. If he is ready... great... if he’s not. I wasn’t counting on him.

 

My concern with Graterol is strictly the value of the chip he is. We have 3 blue chips. Blow a blue one on a rental and you will have to repeat it again in the off season.

 

It makes more sense if you spending a blue chip to trade for this year and next. Player with an extra year of control.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I’m trying to type outside in the rain.

 

I will never count on prospect when making future plans. Never... the prospect arrived when he arrives. In no way am I considering Graterol for 2020. If he is ready... great... if he’s not. I wasn’t counting on him.

 

My concern with Graterol is strictly the value of the chip he is. We have 3 blue chips. Blow a blue one on a rental and you will have to repeat it again in the off season.

 

It makes more sense if you spending a blue chip to trade for this year and next. Player with an extra year of control.

Graterol is like our Justus Sheffield. You trade him to get a Paxton with several years of team control left, not a rental.

 

I’d totally trade for MadBum, Cave plus a flier might do it.

[Rosterman]

No rentals. No. You need to get a starter with control. Otherwise, you let our guys walk and spend on a couple next season.

 

Bigger decisions will be Rosario, Sano, Buxton and anyone else that may not want to sign for the Twins terms. The Twins could be movers and shakers bigtime in the offseason. Shake up the roster. The guys will never have more value than they do right now and for many it may be their fluke season before coming down to earth.

 

Wish the Twins were in a position to trade Odorizzi, Pineda and Gibson. Talk about some returns here.

 

[crapforks]

 

I’d totally trade for MadBum, Cave plus a flier might do it.

I think if the Twins were the only team with any interest in MB, and the only team to whom he could not veto a trade, and the Twins agreed to eat all of the remaining money, and the throw in was decent, the Giants would still give a resounding “not in a million years”

[crapforks]

Not to harp on the Giants/Cave connection, but if the Twins were out of contention, would fans be happy if they traded Odo or Gibson for a teams young(ish) 4th OF who is in AAA?

[Guest]

 

I’m trying to type outside in the rain.

I will never count on prospect when making future plans. Never... the prospect arrived when he arrives. In no way am I considering Graterol for 2020. If he is ready... great... if he’s not. I wasn’t counting on him.

My concern with Graterol is strictly the value of the chip he is. We have 3 blue chips. Blow a blue one on a rental and you will have to repeat it again in the off season.

It makes more sense if you spending a blue chip to trade for this year and next. Player with an extra year of control.

I get what you're saying. Yes, it MIGHT mean that you trade 2 top prospects and end up, in 2020, with just one top of the rotation pitcher in return (having lost the other to FA after 2019). But, that assumes that you couldn't get that SP as a FA by simply spending money during that 19-20 offseason.

 

But more importantly, I think, is that your equation leaves out one pretty critical variable completely. Exactly what do you consider the value of a World Series? If you're just renting a Mad Bum type without a reasonable expectation for a deep postseason run, I agree with you completely.

 

However, the REAL question, to me, is... would it be worth a Graterol and POTENTIALLY another top prospect to get a rented Mad Bum, POTENTIALLY a World Series ring and a different top SP for 2020 when you're trying to extend your window?

 

Ignoring the potential of a World Series, to me, ignores the entire reason why you would even consider trading for a top rental SP, at any price.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Graterol's problem is the "oft injured" type... and he's on the shelf right now for that reason. I think parting with him at peak value isn't necessarily a bad idea. It would sting, no doubt, but it's calculated. That said, not for MadBum. I agree with others that someone to be here next year at a minimum. I'd target Matt Boyd in Detroit or one of the Mets/Nats starters if by chance they decide to sell. It will cost more than Graterol, but it's a price worth paying. 

 

I'd be OK getting Smith. I do think there's wisdom in getting someone with an extra year

[Otwins]

The Giants would have more interest in Larnach than Cave. I would trade Larnach if I think I can extend Rosario.  If you have Kepler and Rosario not a lot of room for a left handed hitting corner outfielder.  Looks like Kiriloff is moving to first.

[Blake]

 

I’m trying to type outside in the rain.

I will never count on prospect when making future plans. Never... the prospect arrived when he arrives. In no way am I considering Graterol for 2020. If he is ready... great... if he’s not. I wasn’t counting on him.

My concern with Graterol is strictly the value of the chip he is. We have 3 blue chips. Blow a blue one on a rental and you will have to repeat it again in the off season.

It makes more sense if you spending a blue chip to trade for this year and next. Player with an extra year of control.

I think most teams have moved away from trading blue chips for a rental.

 

My expectation, hope?, is the Twins look for a pitcher that is top flight, but still owed a bit of money on their contract and they get him as part of a salary dump.

 

I'm not sure if such an animal exists but, hey, why not dream a bit?