Take Advantage of the Banked Wins

[Vanimal46]

The Twins are going to end April either 7 or 8 games above .500... It's been a long time since we could say that. Is this the best stretch of baseball they've played since going 20-7 in May 2015?

 

Back in that season very few actually believed the Twins were that good, they didn't take advantage of the banked wins, and skidded to an 83 win season.

 

I am hoping this year is different, and they take advantage of a hot start... Make an early, aggressive trade for pitching help. Find that elusive starter to transform this team from a cute story to a contender. This is the year to go for it!

[MMMordabito]

 

The Twins are going to end April either 7 or 8 games above .500

 

So, a rainout or a loss today? 

[Vanimal46]

So, a rainout or a loss today?

Math is hard early in the morning!

[Vanimal46]

https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/1123217452521758721?s=19

 

With a couple of savvy pitching transactions they could move the needle to 90+ wins.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

90 win lineup, 80 win starting rotation, 70 win bullpen.

 

I agree with Vanimal— this nice start should be enough to convince the front office that getting more pitching would make a difference.

[TheLeviathan]

 

90 win lineup, 80 win starting rotation, 70 win bullpen.

I agree with Vanimal— this nice start should be enough to convince the front office that getting more pitching would make a difference.

 

I put the whole pitching staff at 70 personally.  I'd be on the phone right now seeing what San Fran wants for MadBum and Dyson.  I'll take both or either.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I put the whole pitching staff at 70 personally.  I'd be on the phone right now seeing what San Fran wants for MadBum and Dyson.  I'll take both or either.

Hard to disagree—the pitching staff is one injury away from looking pretty shabby, regardless of how well they are game planning.

 

Trades have already been made since the start of the season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I’m not ready to get a starter... yet.

 

I’ve been ready to get a reliever going on six months.

 

But yes, this is the year to be aggressive. It’s basically impossible to make a decent trade at this point of the season but roll the dice with some aggressive call-ups, maybe you get lucky.

[Doomtints]

It's too early to know what's going on with the Twins.

 

The Twins had the 5th easiest schedule in baseball so far, but take away the Twins and the Orioles are a .500 team and suddenly it's not such an easy schedule on paper.

 

Regardless of all that, right now the Twins are a top 10 team and that's pretty cool. If they keep hitting like this, they could even beat the big boring team in the AL East.

 

To address the OP, should the Twins make some moves to bolster their bullpen or rotation to be an even tougher team going forward? I don't know the answer to that, but I know that's not the Twins style.

[Vanimal46]

It's too early to know what's going on with the Twins.

 

The Twins had the 5th easiest schedule in baseball so far, but take away the Twins and the Orioles are a .500 team and suddenly it's not such an easy schedule on paper.

 

Regardless of all that, right now the Twins are a top 10 team and that's pretty cool. If they keep hitting like this, they could even beat the big boring team in the AL East.

 

To address the OP, should the Twins make some moves to bolster their bullpen or rotation to be an even tougher team going forward? I don't know the answer to that, but I know that's not the Twins style.

Someone mentioned in another thread that the Twins have 53 games remaining against KC, Detroit, and the White Sox... The schedule is going to remain fairly easy given the state of the AL Central.

 

I agree it's definitely not the Twins style to bolster the MLB team during the season. It was the biggest gripe I had with the mid-2000s Twins teams. I hope the new regime realizes the opportunity they're in this year (weak division foes, big market clubs already having injury issues) and takes advantage.

[howieramone2]

I'm guessing they are waiting to see what they have before trading for a relief pitcher at the deadline. Romero, May, and Mejia all have good stuff, but haven't worked themselves into the mix(Reed may well be done).

 

I'm hoping they spend big. So many teams went dumpster diving this offseason to fill their bullpens.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/1123217452521758721?s=19

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

Fangraphs concurs -- they had us at 35.8% playoff odds before the season, versus 70.4% today.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2019-04-30&dateDelta=

 

The Rays have experienced an even bigger jump so far -- 28% preseason, up to 78% today.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I put the whole pitching staff at 70 personally.  I'd be on the phone right now seeing what San Fran wants for MadBum and Dyson.  I'll take both or either.

I'd love that in theory, but I think a Bumgarner trade would be largely unprecedented this early in the season. I might be afraid of what we'd have to give up to make it happen so early.

 

A reliever is more attainable, although it's probably still early to find a really good one. The Mariners got Alex Colome on May 25th last year, along with Denard Span in a salary dump type move. Maybe the Giants give us Melancon? Or pair a cheaper reliever with Samardzija? (I think they'd want talent more than just salary relief in a Bumgarner trade.)

[Vanimal46]

Thanks for sharing.

 

Fangraphs concurs -- they had us at 35.8% playoff odds before the season, versus 70.4% today.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2019-04-30&dateDelta=

 

The Rays have experienced an even bigger jump so far -- 28% preseason, up to 78% today.

IMO they're in a perfect position to play with the margins a little bit. Try acquiring a reliever who may get you another .5 WAR over an internal candidate. Or make a big splash for a MadBum or Thor before the bidding war begins.

 

The end goal should be to find/acquire another win or 2 over the course of this season.

[BoofBonser]

 

The Twins are going to end April either 7 or 8 games above .500... It's been a long time since we could say that. Is this the best stretch of baseball they've played since going 20-7 in May 2015?

Back in that season very few actually believed the Twins were that good, they didn't take advantage of the banked wins, and skidded to an 83 win season.

I am hoping this year is different, and they take advantage of a hot start... Make an early, aggressive trade for pitching help. Find that elusive starter to transform this team from a cute story to a contender. This is the year to go for it!

Fernando Romero comes to mind when I think of pitching help... If he can have better command the rest of the season, he'd be a key part of the bullpen/rotation

 

Brusdar Graterol also comes to mind... He's only 20, but he's dominated AA so far: Could we see a second half call-up if an injury happens? 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I’m not ready to get a starter... yet.

I’ve been ready to get a reliever going on six months.

But yes, this is the year to be aggressive. It’s basically impossible to make a decent trade at this point of the season but roll the dice with some aggressive call-ups, maybe you get lucky.

 

yeah this... unless it's a difference maker at SP under contract for a while like Thor, I'm not terribly interested in starters...

 

But definitely want to see a reliever or two. Kimbrel is still out there. Don't need to trade a prospect for him. Just cash. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'd love that in theory, but I think a Bumgarner trade would be largely unprecedented this early in the season. I might be afraid of what we'd have to give up to make it happen so early.

 

A reliever is more attainable, although it's probably still early to find a really good one. The Mariners got Alex Colome on May 25th last year, along with Denard Span in a salary dump type move. Maybe the Giants give us Melancon? Or pair a cheaper reliever with Samardzija? (I think they'd want talent more than just salary relief in a Bumgarner trade.)

 

Everything you say is a valid point.  I still pick up the phone and try,

[Vanimal46]

Fernando Romero comes to mind when I think of pitching help... If he can have better command the rest of the season, he'd be a key part of the bullpen/rotation

 

Brusdar Graterol also comes to mind... He's only 20, but he's dominated AA so far: Could we see a second half call-up if an injury happens?

Romero would be a welcomed addition if he can figure out what to do in the bullpen... I'm not sure they will start Graterol's service time clock yet but I like the thought.

 

I'd like to start with adding an established MLB bullpen arm who can handle high leverage spots

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Everything you say is a valid point.  I still pick up the phone and try,

It's 2019 -- they probably don't even have to pick up the phone!

 

Falvine: "Siri, call Farhan Zaidi."

 

Siri: "I could not find any restaurants that serve a far-out baked ziti."

 

Okay, maybe they do have to pick up the phone...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Brusdar Graterol also comes to mind... He's only 20, but he's dominated AA so far: Could we see a second half call-up if an injury happens? 

I'd love it, but Graterol's K rate has been roughly league average at AA this year (and last year at high-A). Not saying he can't be successful with that profile, but it might be hard to count on him being successful in MLB right out of the gate if he's relying more on balls in play. Especially if he's also blowing past his career high for innings (102) while moving up multiple levels.

[TFRazor]

 

It's 2019 -- they probably don't even have to pick up the phone!

 

Falvine: "Siri, call Farhan Zaidi."

 

Siri: "I could not find any restaurants that serve a far-out baked ziti."

 

Okay, maybe they do have to pick up the phone...

Zaidi should be on speed dial by now

[jkcarew]

Agree with posters that have cited how weak the Twins schedule has been...AND how weak it will continue to be (overall) for the entire season. That's what makes it tricky in terms of how aggressive the FO should be, IMO. In terms of hopes for actually competing in the post season, one win like yesterday's means more than six pummellings of Baltimore or any number of future pummellings of KC or the White Sox. The players will get a chance to state their case in the near future with a better mix of competing teams appearing on the schedule.

[Vanimal46]

It's 2019 -- they probably don't even have to pick up the phone!

 

Falvine: "Siri, call Farhan Zaidi."

 

Siri: "I could not find any restaurants that serve a far-out baked ziti."

 

Okay, maybe they do have to pick up the phone...

I like this tangent...

 

Falvine: "Siri, call Billy Beane."

 

Siri: "Okay, here are places to drink Jim Beam."

 

Falvine: sigh...

[BK432]

 

Kimbrel is still out there. Don't need to trade a prospect for him. Just cash. 

 

It's not just cash. It's cash PLUS a draft pick. It's probably nitpicky, but that pick should be worth a lot to the Twins. Kimbrel will probably have several suitors after the draft when the draft pick penalty goes away.

[nicksaviking]

 

I put the whole pitching staff at 70 personally.  I'd be on the phone right now seeing what San Fran wants for MadBum and Dyson.  I'll take both or either.

 

I don't want Dyson, but I'll take Smith.

 

I didn't want Bumgarner in the offseason, and he's looking pretty average right now, but it looks like his velocity and movement haven't regressed as expected. I'd take a chance on him, though I wouldn't count on him pulling a Verlander-esque renaissance to slot himself toward the front of the rotation. I'd be setting my expectations at a left-handed Kyle Gibson benchmark.

 

I'm cheering for the Rockies to fall out of contention early. I can find a few arms on that staffs I'd like to try to get. Same with the A's, at least as far as the bullpen is concerned.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I didn't want Bumgarner in the offseason, and he's looking pretty average right now, but it looks like his velocity and movement haven't regressed as expected. I'd take a chance on him, though I wouldn't count on him pulling a Verlander-esque renaissance to slot himself toward the front of the rotation. I'd be setting my expectations at a left-handed Kyle Gibson benchmark.

Well, Bumgarner isn't even 30 years old yet, so you figure there would be some chance of a renaissance. Although we wouldn't need him to be an ace to be valuable.

[gil4]

 

(Reed may well be done)

Do we have any new info on him?  What was his injury, anyway? Was it a classic case of "he can't get anyone out so he must be injured"?

[Vanimal46]

Do we have any new info on him? What was his injury, anyway? Was it a classic case of "he can't get anyone out so he must be injured"?

I think he's just broken now.

[amjgt]

 

It's not just cash. It's cash PLUS a draft pick. It's probably nitpicky, but that pick should be worth a lot to the Twins. Kimbrel will probably have several suitors after the draft when the draft pick penalty goes away.

 

I was thinking about this.... 

 

If you're either of the two big names out there at this point do you prefer a 1 year deal? Sure you'd have to do it all over again next winter, but without the draft compensation attached. Counterpoint to that, it sure would be nice to get that guaranteed money you've been chasing for 7 months.

 

If you're a team, how does the price/deal change from before the draft until after it starts. If you're giving up a draft pick you'd like to get more than 4 months out of the guy.... unless the price is right. After the draft, you're just buying a hired gun and he's going to go to the highest bidder. 

 

With Keuchel I'd go 2/30 right now and eat the draft pick, but before the draft if I was doing a 1-year deal it'd have to be pretty inexpensive. Like.... $10M. After the draft, I'm sure he'll get a 1-year $15M offer from someone. 

 

Pretty much the same thing for Kimbrel, but maybe dial back those prices by 20%

 

The advantage Kimbrel would have is that I'm sure a RP can dial it up to full speed faster than a SP, after the signing.

[Monkeypaws]

To show how far Addison Reed has fallen, I initially thought we were talking about Jake Reed.