Roster revamp?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Isn't it fun to argue about guys who actually belong on a MLB roster? Refreshing change. 

 

I think this is a fight to the (roster) death over the next 4-6 weeks of Sano recovery and AAA rehab stint for 5 guys - Garver, Cave, Astudillo, Adrianza and .... Gonzlaez.  I think Castro stays as the veteran catcher. I think Garver is traded if he goes but I think he is likely to stay. Youngish catchers who can hit are rare in MLB I see 2 different likely scenarios:

 

(1)  Astudillo cools off and goes down to AAA as injury insurance/26th man - most likely, but only by a little; or

(2)  Cave goes down to AAA as 26th man -  second most likely but then we're stuck with Gonzalez as a 4th OF, which I don't like (and I think Cave is the best long term bat of the group). 

 

The 2 options I like the best are different and a little out of the box-

 

(1) DFA Adrianza, make Gonzalez the backup at SS and have Adrianza (If he clears waivers) as the 26th man or, if not it's Torreyes; or

 

(2) One I kind of like - if we really think Astudillo is for real, Trade Gonzalez for a decent MLB relief pitcher, not a prospect- Astudiilo becomes the super utility guy, Torreyes the 26th man.   

 

We have 4-6 weeks to make a decision. The reality is that an injury or Astudillo cooling off would make the decision for us. If neither of those things happen, I like trading Gonzalez for a relief guy and rolling with Astudiillo as the super utility. It will never happen but I actually think it makes the team stronger IF we can get a decent relief guy for him. I think we can.  

 

I don't see how anyone trades a current MLB pitcher for Gonzalez. He went unsigned for months.....

[ashbury]

I don't see how anyone trades a current MLB pitcher for Gonzalez. He went unsigned for months.....

Trading anyone a few weeks into a new contract, period, would need to be for special reasons that likely bode ill for a season.

[Doomtints]

 

It’s a bigger assumption to assume two guys with a combined total of 98 games started at the MLB level are better than an established, respected defensive catcher.

 

Garver had a year now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Garver had a year now.

A partial year, which was pretty awful defensively (which is what caused the partial year in the first place). According to BP's framing runs, he was ninth worst in MLB last season, despite starting only 75 games.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2560704

 

In their overall catcher metric, Fielding Runs Above Average, he was eighth worst in MLB last season.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2575471

 

It should be noted that Castro, despite starting just 19 games last season, managed to post the 29th best FRAA metric in baseball.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2557144

[rdehring]

 

Isn't it fun to argue about guys who actually belong on a MLB roster? Refreshing change. 

 

I think this is a fight to the (roster) death over the next 4-6 weeks of Sano recovery and AAA rehab stint for 5 guys - Garver, Cave, Astudillo, Adrianza and .... Gonzlaez.  I think Castro stays as the veteran catcher. I think Garver is traded if he goes but I think he is likely to stay. Youngish catchers who can hit are rare in MLB I see 2 different likely scenarios:

 

(1)  Astudillo cools off and goes down to AAA as injury insurance/26th man - most likely, but only by a little; or

(2)  Cave goes down to AAA as 26th man -  second most likely but then we're stuck with Gonzalez as a 4th OF, which I don't like (and I think Cave is the best long term bat of the group). 

 

The 2 options I like the best are different and a little out of the box-

 

(1) DFA Adrianza, make Gonzalez the backup at SS and have Adrianza (If he clears waivers) as the 26th man or, if not it's Torreyes; or

 

(2) One I kind of like - if we really think Astudillo is for real, Trade Gonzalez for a decent MLB relief pitcher, not a prospect- Astudiilo becomes the super utility guy, Torreyes the 26th man.   

 

We have 4-6 weeks to make a decision. The reality is that an injury or Astudillo cooling off would make the decision for us. If neither of those things happen, I like trading Gonzalez for a relief guy and rolling with Astudiillo as the super utility. It will never happen but I actually think it makes the team stronger IF we can get a decent relief guy for him. I think we can.  

I like your thought process LA.  I also think that options is going to play into what is done.  That puts one of the catchers or Cave in Rochester when Sano is healthy.  The good news is that it is a short-term move as they can be back in 10 days, or sooner if an injury happens.  

 

Got a feeling that there is gonna be a lot of movement over the coming months with possibly all three of those players seeing some time in Rochester.  Obviously, an injury could change everything.  Any one of the three could secure their position with their bat, much as Astudillo has been doing this first week. 

 

But as some one said above, isn't it wonderful to be discussing who could be forced to the minors and really deserves to be with the Twins.  Heck of a lot different than recent years when you could choose from several guys that really didn't belong.  For that reason, lets give this new management team some credit, eh?

[Doomtints]

 

A partial year, which was pretty awful defensively (which is what caused the partial year in the first place). According to BP's framing runs, he was ninth worst in MLB last season, despite starting only 75 games.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2560704

 

In their overall catcher metric, Fielding Runs Above Average, he was eighth worst in MLB last season.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2575471

 

It should be noted that Castro, despite starting just 19 games last season, managed to post the 29th best FRAA metric in baseball.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2557144

 

I'm OK with someone being awful their first year.

 

It's not his first year anymore.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm OK with someone being awful their first year.

 

It's not his first year anymore.

As am I. But you're the one who said it was a big assumption that Castro isn't better than Garver without any evidence to support that statement.

 

I was a big advocate for Garver to get playing time last season but he needs to improve defensively if he's going to supplant Castro.

[Mike Frasier Law]

Re: Garver v Castro. I think the question comes down to what this team needs more from behind the plate - defense and managing the staff or a bat. I just perused all the different projections Fangraphs has (they have a lot!) and the general consensus seems to be that Garver's bat is significantly better, but is roughly offset (maybe more than offset) by his defense. They are within 1 win of each other on all the projections.

 

So, do we need a bat or a glove behind home plate? IMO, I keep them both rostered as long as I can to see how much Garver can learn from Castro about defense and managing the pitching staff. That seems to me to be much easier to improve than hitting.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Re: Garver v Castro. I think the question comes down to what this team needs more from behind the plate - defense and managing the staff or a bat. I just perused all the different projections Fangraphs has (they have a lot!) and the general consensus seems to be that Garver's bat is significantly better, but is roughly offset (maybe more than offset) by his defense. They are within 1 win of each other on all the projections.

 

So, do we need a bat or a glove behind home plate? IMO, I keep them both rostered as long as I can to see how much Garver can learn from Castro about defense and managing the pitching staff. That seems to me to be much easier to improve than hitting.

Agreed with the second paragraph. I want to see Castro stick around as a mentor, not necessarily as a guy who catches 100+ games a season.

 

First paragraph gets a bit stickier. This pitching staff is not awesome while the offense profiles to be quite good. Given those splits, I'll happily sacrifice a little offense to help what is probably, at best, a mediocre staff look as good as it can.

[TFRazor]

Are we certain that Sano immediately gets slotted in at 3rd once he's healthy? If we're still winning when that day comes, I'd almost be willing to send him to AAA to get his swing back before slotting him into an effective lineup. (Again, all this is reliant on us still winning regularly into May.)

[Mr. Brooks]

Are we certain that Sano immediately gets slotted in at 3rd once he's healthy? If we're still winning when that day comes, I'd almost be willing to send him to AAA to get his swing back before slotting him into an effective lineup. (Again, all this is reliant on us still winning regularly into May.)

No, he won't be slotted in as soon as he's healthy.

He'll have a lengthy rehab assignment before he's activated.

[Doomtints]

 

As am I. But you're the one who said it was a big assumption that Castro isn't better than Garver without any evidence to support that statement.

 

I was a big advocate for Garver to get playing time last season but he needs to improve defensively if he's going to supplant Castro.

 

I am free to make my own assumptions.

 

I think Castro is not a good catcher defensively, I think he's a finesse ("pitch framing") catcher who has too many passed balls and bad throws. We know he can't hit.

 

Can Garver learn something from Castro? Probably, but maybe nothing good. In any case, he can still learn from Castro if Castro is catching once every five games. They sit on a hell of a lot of airplane rides together.

[yarnivek1972]

No, he won't be slotted in as soon as he's healthy.

He'll have a lengthy rehab assignment before he's activated.

MLB rehab assignments are a maximum of 20 days for non pitchers. IMO it is far more likely that he doesn’t go on an actual rehab assignment. He will probably just be optioned when he is cleared medically.

[Channing1964]

About 77 days in AAA should do the trick. 

yeahhahaahaaa 77 days and 60 of them on the I.L. for a hangnail and blurred breaking ball vision.

[Channing1964]

No, he won't be slotted in as soon as he's healthy.

He'll have a lengthy rehab assignment before he's activated.

If he has options (and im sorry i dont know) then for sure he goes to Rochester for 20. By all accounts he's in shape but then he will have to get 20 days worth of ABs against AAA pitching and decisions will come. Or not.

[Jim Hahn]

I absolutely agree with this in 2019 and believe that concept was a driving force behind the Baldelli hire.

 

But in 2018 and under Molitor, I don't think things were quite that fluid. There seemed to be something of a wall between the concepts the front office were pushing and what Molitor was doing on the field. Not an enormous rift or anything, just a little more resistance than should probably exist in a modern baseball organization.

I suspect that there could be quite a bit resistance from any number of managers

from time to time. When you can and will be fired for failure, you may may very well resist suggestions you don't agree with. When those suggestions are clearly more than suggestions it puts a manager in tough place. When playing time and other things concerning player usage are no longer really under the control of the manager, it can be pretty easy to lose control of the clubhouse.

 

I think there are plenty of interesting and potentially difficult aspects to the blurring of lines between the front office and the on field management. There are a lot benefits potentially available to the manager, but there are any number of potential pitfalls as well.

[jorgenswest]

Astudillo at 1B and Garver at catcher tonight. They could have flipped them. Garver’s hard work behind the plate may be paying off.

[Mr. Brooks]

MLB rehab assignments are a maximum of 20 days for non pitchers. IMO it is far more likely that he doesn’t go on an actual rehab assignment. He will probably just be optioned when he is cleared medically.

Why would you use an option before you have to? I can't see any upside in that.

He'll absolutely go on a rehab assignment first, they can always option him after that if his performance and roster shakeup determines so.

[DiscGolfer]

Once Sano is 100% he'll be back in the lineup.  If he starts mashing during rehab that'll happen sooner than later.  If he struggles he still has 2 options remaining.  

 

If a corresponding roster move had to happen today to make room for him I'd say Cave gets sent down, he still has options remaining.  But a lot can happen in the next 3 weeks before a decision needs to be made.  

[Channing1964]

Once Sano is 100% he'll be back in the lineup. If he starts mashing during rehab that'll happen sooner than later. If he struggles he still has 2 options remaining.

 

If a corresponding roster move had to happen today to make room for him I'd say Cave gets sent down, he still has options remaining. But a lot can happen in the next 3 weeks before a decision needs to be made.

and if we know Sano like we do, its easy to predict another six weeks off due to a stubbed toe or some legal problem he incurred in South Florida. I'm so glad we aren't saying "just wait till Sano comes back!" anymore.

[DiscGolfer]

This team isn't reliant on Sano's bat to be successful this year but I still want to see what he can do on the field before I pass any judgment on him going forward.  If he is productive with the bat this year, ohh the possibilities with this lineup.

[yarnivek1972]

Why would you use an option before you have to? I can't see any upside in that.

He'll absolutely go on a rehab assignment first, they can always option him after that if his performance and roster shakeup determines so.

He gets paid MLB salary and accrues MLB service time on the DL and on a rehab assignment. That’s the upside.

[laloesch]

 

What to do with Garver? Yes, he has an option, but I think he's shown he is a major league catcher, with a pretty good bat. For him to start less than 50 games would be unwise use of a roster spot.and wouldn't aid in Garver's development going forward. 

 

My solution would be to try to move Garver for a younger catcher (you know, like John Ryan Murphy) who would be the third catcher if one of the two got injured, who could step up in 2020 as a full-time major leaguer. 

 

OMG no! Keep Garver. FINALLY we have two guys (Garver and Astudillo) who can play the position and HIT! I can't remember the last time we had a decent starting catcher and backup since Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond back in 2008 although Ryan Doumit was serviceable. If anything i'd be looking to move Castro to free up roster space. Just my opinion.

[Mr. Brooks]

He gets paid MLB salary and accrues MLB service time on the DL and on a rehab assignment. That’s the upside.

I'd rather save the option than worry about 20 days of service time and salary.

If he was close to a service time line that might be different.

[prouster]

It's not at all concerning to you if the FO doesn't even know the basic transaction rules?

Do you actually think this is the case?

[howieramone2]

 

Do you actually think this is the case?

Of course not. There are 100 staff members or so at 1 Twins Way who have nothing to do but things like this. It was misreported as another member pointed out. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Do you actually think this is the case?

No I don't.

If you scroll back through the chain of responses, I was responding to someone who suggested that was the reason they changed their mind from Littel to Dejong.

[prouster]

No I don't.

If you scroll back through the chain of responses, I was responding to someone who suggested that was the reason they changed their mind from Littel to Dejong.

Ah. I should read the whole thread.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd rather save the option than worry about 20 days of service time and salary.
If he was close to a service time line that might be different.

Interesting question.

 

Sano came into the season with 3 years, 66 days service time. By May 1st, he will be up to 100 days. He needs to reach 172 days to hit 4 "full seasons" service time.

 

If you were willing to keep him down from May 1st until July 21st, you could gain an extra year of control (through 2022). If we think he still has work to do, to get ready for 2019 and build upon his 2018 reset, maybe that would be more valuable than keeping an option on him for 2020 but only controlling him through 2021?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Interesting question.

 

Sano came into the season with 3 years, 66 days service time. By May 1st, he will be up to 100 days. He needs to reach 172 days to hit 4 "full seasons" service time.

 

If you were willing to keep him down from May 1st until July 21st, you could gain an extra year of control (through 2022). If we think he still has work to do, to get ready for 2019 and build upon his 2018 reset, maybe that would be more valuable than keeping an option on him for 2020 but only controlling him through 2021?

 

try to win this year. Stop worrying only about the future.