Indians tanking but will still win the division?

[glunn]

Interesting article that suggests that the Indians are so confident that they will win the AL Central that they are tanking somewhat to minimize payroll.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-indians-are-contenders-but-could-they-get-away-with-a-little-tanking/

 

From the article:

 

"Cleveland has won the Central in each of the past three years, by a comfortable margin of 12.7 games on average. Part of this is not the product of Cleveland’s talent but rather the lack thereof among the rest of the teams in the division. In fact, the rest of the division has done so little to try to close the gap that the Indians were openly shopping some of their veteran stars this winter, in part to cut costs, while still intending to win the division. Although some of the bigger rumored deals haven’t actually happened, this type of “have-your-tank-and-beat-them-too” mindset could be an innovative model for top teams trying to retool on the fly in a division laden with rebuilding clubs."

 

I hope that this backfires for the Indians.

[old nurse]

A couple years of record payroll and winning has not brought out the fans like the old days.  That is problem number one. LDS losers.  That core was not getting it done.

Yonder Alonso. Big deal that they traded him

Encarnation for Santana seems to be an even swap

Gomes is a 31 year old catcher. Good, but not elite Aging. Indians have done well with most trades

Why the angst

[Han Joelo]

Have they done much to "rebuild" or have they mainly slashed payroll?  I really don't imagine Cleveland's braintrust sitting around rubbing their hands saying "this division sucks!  Let's rebuild AND win!"  More like, "hey, this might be our last chance to retool and still have a good chance of winning the division.  The rest of them are getting better, and if we want to stay competitive in a couple of years, we need to lay some groundwork now."

[mikelink45]

Interesting article.  I remember when the Twins were in the playoffs and losing three straight each year.  While that sounds like heaven now, the fans turned on the team because they looked so bad in the playoffs.  Cleveland has had a lot of promise but each year their rivals exceed them by greater amounts.  To stand still was to go backward on the championship level.  I think they blew it and were unable to find a new formula to lift them. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't quite buy it. Under the hypothesis from the author, this would mean had the Twins gone out and signed a bunch of free agents in November then Cleveland would have matched them? I don't think they would have, I think this team was going to shed payroll whether the division was competitive or not.

 

But I also don't think that club is tanking. An elite rotation like that doesn't miss the playoffs very often and they still have easily the two best position players in the whole division. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't buy the Indians being a 94 win team... that's just me. They got weaker this year. Now I think the 84 projected for the Twins is pretty reasonable, but I also think given the age of their core and the improvements made on the team that they could take some pretty major strides forward too...

 

Should Cleveland be a favorite? Yes... Are they going to regret a little tanking? I suspect so. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I agree, the Indians "selling" or "tanking" is overblown. The 1B/DH moves this offseason in particular don't seem problematic.

 

I will say, though, that they've left themselves a little vulnerable at catcher. With their emphasis on pitching, though, I could give them the benefit of the doubt that they know what they are doing there.

 

Their bullpen looks bad, but they wouldn't be the first team to eschew major offseason bullpen signings.

 

Their projected outfield is pretty bad, though, potentially at all 3 spots. Not sure how to explain that one. It really seems like they could have used Brantley back.

[RatherBeGolfing]

Tanking is the wrong word choice

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't buy the Indians being a 94 win team... that's just me. They got weaker this year. Now I think the 84 projected for the Twins is pretty reasonable, but I also think given the age of their core and the improvements made on the team that they could take some pretty major strides forward too...

 

Should Cleveland be a favorite? Yes... Are they going to regret a little tanking? I suspect so. 

 

I think Cleveland underachieved last year. They won 91 games but probably should have won 98. A decrease to 94-ish wins would probably look more reasonable had that been the case.

 

And if I had to guess, I might say Cleveland underachieved because they played down to their competition. If that was the case, that might be a good sign that this isn't the kind of team that can switch to the "foot-on-the-throat" mentality. We've seen that around these parts, I'm more than happy to let Cleveland go nowhere in the deadzone that accompanies that mindset. 

 

But I still think record-wise, they're probably still top tier.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think Cleveland underachieved last year. They won 91 games but probably should have won 98. A decrease to 94-ish wins would probably look more reasonable had that been the case.

 

And if I had to guess, I might say Cleveland underachieved because they played down to their competition. If that was the case, that might be a good sign that this isn't the kind of team that can switch to the "foot-on-the-throat" mentality. We've seen that around these parts, I'm more than happy to let Cleveland go nowhere in the deadzone that accompanies that mindset. 

 

But I still think record-wise, they're probably still top tier.

They won 91 games in what was arguably the weakest division last year... we finished 2nd if I remember right. It's not like Det or KC got demonstrably worse and Chi and Min are probably better. 

 

That's why I don't buy the 94 win projection. The Indians got worse, the division got stronger. Given that their window is closing, I'm a bit surprised they didn't take Falvine's approach this offseason with shorter term deals. 

[Kelly Vance]

Cleveland and Minny will both win 88 games and the Twins win game 163.

Hey, if you are gonna predict something, why not make it fun?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They won 91 games in what was arguably the weakest division last year... we finished 2nd if I remember right. It's not like Det or KC got demonstrably worse and Chi and Min are probably better. 

 

That's why I don't buy the 94 win projection. The Indians got worse, the division got stronger. Given that their window is closing, I'm a bit surprised they didn't take Falvine's approach this offseason with shorter term deals. 

Why would you say their window is closing? They still have Lindor, Ramirez, Kluber, Carrasco, Clevinger, and Hand all controlled for the next 3-5 years. Bauer for the next 2. Bieber for the next 6.

 

Also, I'm not sure the division got better. Weren't the Twins projected around 82-83 wins last spring too? Without Machado, I don't think the White Sox moved the needle much either (and the needle was low enough to begin with, I'm not sure it matters).

 

If I were a Cleveland fan, I too would have wished they dug into their pockets to sign an outfielder this past offseason. But I wouldn't say that's because of any window closing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think Cleveland underachieved last year. They won 91 games but probably should have won 98. A decrease to 94-ish wins would probably look more reasonable had that been the case.

 

And if I had to guess, I might say Cleveland underachieved because they played down to their competition. If that was the case, that might be a good sign that this isn't the kind of team that can switch to the "foot-on-the-throat" mentality. We've seen that around these parts, I'm more than happy to let Cleveland go nowhere in the deadzone that accompanies that mindset. 

 

But I still think record-wise, they're probably still top tier.

Cleveland had a 98 win season by Pythag, and 94 by BaseRuns.

 

I'd guess their bullpen dragged them down a bit -- Miller and Allen were not their usual selves last year.

 

I'm not sure it suggests any problem with their mentality -- they've snagged Hand and Miller in midseason deals over the last 3 years, plus a few other pieces. So they've got some aggressiveness.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Why would you say their window is closing? They still have Lindor, Ramirez, Kluber, Carrasco, Clevinger, and Hand all controlled for the next 3-5 years. Bauer for the next 2. Bieber for the next 6.

 

Also, I'm not sure the division got better. Weren't the Twins projected around 82-83 wins last spring too? Without Machado, I don't think the White Sox moved the needle much either (and the needle was low enough to begin with, I'm not sure it matters).

 

If I were a Cleveland fan, I too would have wished they dug into their pockets to sign an outfielder this past offseason. But I wouldn't say that's because of any window closing.

Francisco Lindor made 10 mil in his first year of Arbitration. No way the Indians can afford the arb raises, and he won’t extend. My guess is he gets traded this year.

 

Kluber is 32... Kipnis and Santana gotta be on the edge....

 

Twins and Whitesox didn’t really get “better” though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Francisco Lindor made 10 mil in his first year of Arbitration. No way the Indians can afford the arb raises, and he won’t extend. My guess is he gets traded this year.

Kluber is 32... Kipnis and Santana gotta be on the edge....

Note that I did not mention Kipnis or Santana in my post. They're not really vital parts of this Cleveland club anymore -- although their expiring contracts after 2019 and 2020, respectively, should allow the team to pay Lindor's arbitration raises if it desires.

[nicksaviking]

 

That's why I don't buy the 94 win projection. The Indians got worse, the division got stronger. Given that their window is closing, I'm a bit surprised they didn't take Falvine's approach this offseason with shorter term deals. 

 

I agree that they've likely gotten worse from last year in terms of talent, though minimally, I just don't think they're necessarily worse in terms of wins and losses, because last year they should have won more than 91 games; that was an elite squad. They're still extremely talented as arguably their top four starters are better than anyone else in the division and probably unarguable they have the two best position players in the division.

 

If the projections are based on a clean slate, talent alone, they're probably a 94-98 win team. It's only when last year's record is added that skepticism might suggest otherwise. This team should coast to a division win, but that's the trap, coasting is probably why they underachieved last year and it could open the door for an overachiever this year.

 

[jkcarew]

Division championships are meaningless. Especially in an era of 2 playoff rounds to get to the WS. More so yet in the next couple of years where you can count on 3 elite teams in the AL. Of course, you need to win one to remember how meaningless they are.

 

Granted, you need to get good before you can get great...so, for the Twins...by all means, let's win the division. But for Cleveland, I could understand them having slightly different objectives in the short term (depending on how they evaluate themselves).

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Why would you say their window is closing? They still have Lindor, Ramirez, Kluber, Carrasco, Clevinger, and Hand all controlled for the next 3-5 years. Bauer for the next 2. Bieber for the next 6.

 

Also, I'm not sure the division got better. Weren't the Twins projected around 82-83 wins last spring too? Without Machado, I don't think the White Sox moved the needle much either (and the needle was low enough to begin with, I'm not sure it matters).

 

If I were a Cleveland fan, I too would have wished they dug into their pockets to sign an outfielder this past offseason. But I wouldn't say that's because of any window closing.

 

Well, their core is getting older and they've started shipping off expensive assets. That's kind of the definition. I'm not saying they are a bad team nor that they shouldn't be the favorites, but that window is closing, and part of that is by their own doing. 

 

I guess I don't quite view the Twins and WS the same as you do. The WS are a very young team. Yeah, they'll take some lumps, but returning the same team would likely be a better one than last year. The Twins are kind of in that boat too, though you have to admit that pretty much everything went wrong with them last year. They've turned around and replaced Morrison and Mauer with some pretty clear upgrades. Schoop's floor is likely Dozier last year. The only real losses are a half season of Pressley and Escobar. It won't take much in terms of stepping forward for the Twins to be considerably better than the 78 wins they posted. 

 

I guess that's why I'm skeptical of a team that won 91 games last year suddenly upping their game while being weaker overall. The Indians should be good, but I suspect that they will be in for some tough competition this year. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, their core is getting older and they've started shipping off expensive assets. That's kind of the definition.

But Cleveland hasn't really shipped off any good assets. There was talk they might do that, with Kluber and other pitchers, but they haven't. They've exchanged a few more modest assets -- they dealt Encarnacion, but they brought back Santana and acquired Bauers. They dealt Gomes, but brought in Plawecki.

 

On the FA side, they let Miller and Allen leave, but they already added Hand midseason last year. I've granted that not re-signing Brantley might be a bad move, but it's not really a sign of a window closing. They may not have liked him, at that age, at that price -- and they've certainly shown a willingness to add aggressively during the season, if a need arises (or persists).

 

The core is still pretty young too -- Lindor and Ramirez at 25 and 26, chiefly, but also Clevinger and Bauer are only 28 this year. Hand 29. Bieber 24. Kluber and Carrasco aren't graybeards either. The guys they shipped out or let go this winter were all going to be 30 or older.

[markos]

 

Division championships are meaningless. Especially in an era of 2 playoff rounds to get to the WS. More so yet in the next couple of years where you can count on 3 elite teams in the AL. Of course, you need to win one to remember how meaningless they are.

 

Granted, you need to get good before you can get great...so, for the Twins...by all means, let's win the division. But for Cleveland, I could understand them having slightly different objectives in the short term (depending on how they evaluate themselves).

I would argue that winning the division is more important now than it was prior to the WC play-in game. I'd rather win the division and see one of the Yankees/Red Sox have to survive the wildcard game than be matched up against one of them in the wildcard game.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I guess I don't quite view the Twins and WS the same as you do. The WS are a very young team. Yeah, they'll take some lumps, but returning the same team would likely be a better one than last year. The Twins are kind of in that boat too, though you have to admit that pretty much everything went wrong with them last year. They've turned around and replaced Morrison and Mauer with some pretty clear upgrades. Schoop's floor is likely Dozier last year. The only real losses are a half season of Pressley and Escobar. It won't take much in terms of stepping forward for the Twins to be considerably better than the 78 wins they posted. 

 

I guess that's why I'm skeptical of a team that won 91 games last year suddenly upping their game while being weaker overall. The Indians should be good, but I suspect that they will be in for some tough competition this year. 

Cleveland finished 2018 with 91 wins, such that a 2019 projection of 94 looks like "upping their game" -- but Cleveland under-performed its projection with those 91 wins in 2018, and under-performed most win estimators too (Pythag and BaseRuns). A 94 win projection for 2019 isn't "upping their game", it's basically holding steady. Their offseason moves pretty much look like "holding steady" too, aside from maybe Brantley.

 

Likewise, I certainly agree that the Twins should finish better than 78 wins, and the White Sox better than 62 wins -- but both were projected to be better than that in 2018 too. Their 2019 projections are more or less holding steady from the preseason 2018 projections just like Cleveland, which suggests they're about the same level of threat now that they were a year ago (i.e. not much).

[Kelly Vance]

Rumors of the Tribe's demise are greatly exaggerated as long as Francona is the manager. Twins should have sent Gardy away a year before they did and signed Tito. It would have made a difference. 

[Doomtints]

I wonder how many times other AL Central teams read about the Twins tanking in the 00s and how they were about to lose their grip on the division.

 

The Twins had a lot of turnover in the 00s and won the division many different ways, sometimes with smoke and mirrors. They knew how to play in the division.

[Riverbrian]

Indians Player Departures

 

Josh Donaldson and Julian Merryweather

Michael Brantley

Melky Cabrera

Lonnie Chisenhall

Rajai Davis

Brandon Guyer

Yandy Diaz

Yan Gomes

Josh Tomlin

Andrew Miller

Cody Allen

 

 

 

[Dantes929]

Reminds me of my childhood playing games with my brothers.    After the game  the loser would say " I wasn't even trying"  cuz, you know, you can't let the winner feel good about the victory.   Of course the winner would say "I wasn't trying either" cuz ya gotta make em feel worse about losing.  Good times....good times.

[Dantes929]

 

I wonder how many times other AL Central teams read about the Twins tanking in the 00s and how they were about to lose their grip on the division.

 

The Twins had a lot of turnover in the 00s and won the division many different ways, sometimes with smoke and mirrors. They knew how to play in the division.

Every year posters (at least on the Trib site) moaned about how the Twins got worse and every other team got way better.     Predictions of 90 plus losses abounded.   Of course if you predict it often enough it will come true eventually, as we have seen.  

What I didn't and still don't like is the reference to those years of the AL Central being the worst division in baseball.    I accept that it is true this decade but the Twins would have done just fine in any division in their title winning years except for  the AL East  where they got absolutely destroyed.    That last decade the Twins always did really well against the NL teams and held their own against the AL West.

[DiscGolfer]

Cleveland should be favored to win the division but I think the race will be much closer than some people may think.  it's only spring training so everything looks great right now and all moves are gonna work out and the Twins will win the WS.  Ok so maybe not necessarily.  But if Cleveland struggles and most of the X factors for the Twins work out I could see the Twins sneaking up and seriously challenging for the division.

 

Things do need to break right for the Twins for them to be successful but I think the same could be said for many teams.  Last year there was a lot of bad luck, 15 walk off losses, if some of those are turned into wins the year looks much different.  No matter what happens it'll be fun to see how the season unfolds this year, right now everything is rosy.

[howieramone2]

 

Every year posters (at least on the Trib site) moaned about how the Twins got worse and every other team got way better.     Predictions of 90 plus losses abounded.   Of course if you predict it often enough it will come true eventually, as we have seen.  

What I didn't and still don't like is the reference to those years of the AL Central being the worst division in baseball.    I accept that it is true this decade but the Twins would have done just fine in any division in their title winning years except for  the AL East  where they got absolutely destroyed.    That last decade the Twins always did really well against the NL teams and held their own against the AL West.

That was mostly the TR haighters. 

[Doomtints]

 

Every year posters (at least on the Trib site) moaned about how the Twins got worse and every other team got way better.     Predictions of 90 plus losses abounded.   Of course if you predict it often enough it will come true eventually, as we have seen.  

What I didn't and still don't like is the reference to those years of the AL Central being the worst division in baseball.    I accept that it is true this decade but the Twins would have done just fine in any division in their title winning years except for  the AL East  where they got absolutely destroyed.    That last decade the Twins always did really well against the NL teams and held their own against the AL West.

 

I definitely recall mainstream media saying the Indians were about to dominate the AL Central all throughout the 00s. They were good a couple of years there but couldn't really keep up with the Twins who had this uncanny way of finishing strong.

 

As you said, everyone who makes the same prediction every year is right eventually. 

[jkcarew]

 

I would argue that winning the division is more important now than it was prior to the WC play-in game. I'd rather win the division and see one of the Yankees/Red Sox have to survive the wildcard game than be matched up against one of them in the wildcard game.

Yep. I'd always rather win the division. But that's not the point. The point is, it means (almost) nothing to win a division crown while being a slightly above average team in a terrible division. The goal is to be a very good team...not win a division. If we played the 2018 AL post-season over 10 times, we'd see Cleveland win the pennant zero times. How many times would we see either of the wild-card teams...the Yankees or the A's win it? More than zero.

 

That's why it would not shock me if Cleveland is considering strategies that attempt to legitimately get them to a Bos/Hou/NY level...even if some of those potential strategies present short-term risks...like losing the 2019 central division crown. Cleveland, I'm guessing, has a very good handle on the value of a central division crown in the AL as it, and their club, currently exist.