2019: The Nature, Organization, Augmentation of the Rotation

[DocBauer]

There are currently a number of posts...as we near the end of the 2018 season...from the FO (positive and negative), to Buxton, to rookies, to overall needs to various areas of disappointment. We all know, in the world of MLB, there is no true off season, just games and times before games. And I have been rolling thought after thought in my limited brain, complete with holes and blank spaces there within that I'm not sure i want a light to shine, about what lies ahead for our favorite team.

 

And we will have months of the "off season" to post and debate so many topics! And we will each have opportunities to play post and play GM about all of these various topics. But I would like to take the time to just discuss this ONE TOPIC. That being, the rotation for the Twins in 2019.

 

At the end of the day, there are so many ways to build a successful team. And, of course, you always want to build the most balanced and complete team you can. But one underlying theme prevails in the annals of baseball: PITCHING WINS GAMES.

 

We can argue about the recent changes as to whether SP or elite bullpens is the way of today and the future, or the merits of an opener vs a primary pitcher. Regardless, I just wanted to begin an open and honest post about the Twins rotation for 2019.

 

Yes, the team could make a major FA signing or major trade. Perhaps they should. Perhaps they will. But should they? If the real direction and purpose of the FO is to build a quality, winning and sustainable franchise, SHOULD they make a major move? They have payroll to work with. Even if they make a big move, Gibson and Pineda and Reed could all come off the books after 2019.

 

I'm not sure i know the right answer, but I'm here to begin a discussion as to where we sit NOW.

 

BERRIOS: A former top prospect, he struggled initially before getting his feet under him. He earned his All Star selection this season and has so much potential still. Can he become a true #1? Time will tell. But IMO, he's at least a true #2.

 

GIBSON: Unfortunately, he's a bit of a late bloomer. But there is no longer a SSS. He has grown and emerged as a legitimate, quality ML SP. Again, IMO, he's a quality #2 who pitches like a #2 some days.

 

ODORIZZI: He's OK. His stuff plays OK, but not great. He's a 5 IP who gets in to the 6th once in a while. He's pretty darn good as a 5th SP, might be better re-inventing himself in the pen, but is solid. Don't let a couple late games fool you unless he is also going to prove to be a late bloomer.

 

PINEDA: The enigma for 2019. Look up his full ML numbers at your leisure. 1 1/2 season's with Seattle and 2 1/2 season's with the Yankees. What you will find is a .500 record, but decent 4.05 ERA and quality BA, WHIP, 9 SO per inning and quality SO/BB. The Twins gambled on a flier for a reason. He's no proven stud. But there are a lot of things to like here. He looked good initially in his rehab before a knee injury robbed him of valuable ML time to close the season. Healthy, how good could he be in 2019? The jury is in serious deliberation. But there is potential there for something pretty nice.

 

There is reasonable optimism the Twins have a pretty solid 4 SP to begin 2019. There is also optimism for Romero, and the FO seems to believe in him and his potential for their early season promotion of him, and he could go a long way towards building the 2019 rotation and beyond.

 

MEJIA: He showed flashes in his rookie 2017 season. Injury and inconsistency slowed his 2018. But he again showed flashes before being shut down with a wrist injury. Out of options, I believe, he's part of the team, pen or rotation.

 

DEPTH: There is nothing, but also something. Gonsalves has risen to the challenge at every level he has pitched. And his recent performances seem to be bearing that out. Littell and Stewart I feel less comfortable about, but they are showing some signs. Thorpe could surpass Gonsalves soon, though there is room for both of them, and Wells may not be too far behind as a contributor. Not sure where or if Slegers fits in anywhere.

 

GRATEROL: I include him here not because I expect him to sniff a ML uniform in 2019. But if the FO decides to take a step back and concentrate more in 2019 on what is already in hand, he is a special arm who could pitch at 3 levels in 2019, assuming he begins at Ft Myers.

 

I don't believe the Twins are desperate for the rotation in 2019. I also don't believe they are settled either. The Odorizzi move was calculated. The Lynn move was made out of opportunity. Question is, what is the approach for 2019? Does the FO concentrate on the current re-build they inherited and are hoping to continue with young players on hand and keeping working to move forward? Do they believe enough in what they have with a couple rebound seasons that this team is close enough to make that one big trade or FA move?

 

Honestly and realistically, where do you see the 2019 rotation?

[Linus]

Sorry this is off topic but I think they need to worry about the bullpen more than the rotation. As is there are realistic chances they could be competent. As is there bullpen sucks like it has for several years

[ChrisKnutson]

I agree, despite the nice cushion of rotation depth, I still feel the FO is gonna be on the lookout for an innings eaters who can be capable of more. Of course this could mean bringing Santana back, but it also could mean signing either Derek Holland or Gio Gonzalez.

[ChrisKnutson]

Sorry this is off topic but I think they need to worry about the bullpen more than the rotation. As is there are realistic chances they could be competent. As is there bullpen sucks like it has for several years

A good first step would be to sign Adam Ottavino, rather than any of Kimbrel/Familia/Miller, who’ll cost more for the same (if not better) production.

[Thrylos]

For the Twins to be relevant they need and 1-2 that will at least be able to have a 50% chance on paper to beat

 

Verlander
Cole

(Morton and Keuchel are FAs)

and

Sale
Price.

 

Berrios

Gibson

 

just do not cut it.  

 

Both of them would be at best a number 3 in Boston and Houston next season.  This should not be good enough for the Twins if they want to be relevant.

 

They should go all out and try to trade for the Mets' top 2 pitchers IMHO. 

[DocBauer]

Sorry this is off topic but I think they need to worry about the bullpen more than the rotation. As is there are realistic chances they could be competent. As is there bullpen sucks like it has for several years

And I agree the bullpen is an issue. I also feel a starter or two could make their presence made in the pen. But for now, where are we in regards to the rotation for next season.

[Linus]

SSS. Tonight doesn’t make me feel any better about our crappy bullpen

[beckmt]

I also believe the Twins need to sign or trade for a #1 or #2 starter.  You can fill in the rest or trade Oderizzi, or maybe package of few of the minor league starters for a better pitcher from a team that needs starters and is cheap (KC come to mind, but might not trade Duffy).  Hard call, but standing still will say the team is still in rebuild mode and not serious about contending in 2019.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I also believe the Twins need to sign or trade for a #1 or #2 starter.  You can fill in the rest or trade Oderizzi, or maybe package of few of the minor league starters for a better pitcher from a team that needs starters and is cheap (KC come to mind, but might not trade Duffy).  Hard call, but standing still will say the team is still in rebuild mode and not serious about contending in 2019.

 

I hear what you are saying, but the smart money is on the Twins staying in rebuild mode and not being serious about condending next season. Would I like them to? Heck yes. But I see them going after more dumpster type #3-5 starter for no apparent reason and signing middle of the road relievers. 

 

To trade for the Mets studs, you will need to give up one of our top 3 prospects for sure. I am just fine doing that, but I know the Twins and many around here would just hate it. 

 

 

[beckmt]

 

I hear what you are saying, but the smart money is on the Twins staying in rebuild mode and not being serious about condending next season. Would I like them to? Heck yes. But I see them going after more dumpster type #3-5 starter for no apparent reason and signing middle of the road relievers. 

 

To trade for the Mets studs, you will need to give up one of our top 3 prospects for sure. I am just fine doing that, but I know the Twins and many around here would just hate it. 

I would take more than 1 of our top 3 for one of the Mets studs, they would start with Lewis and probably Gastrol, plus more.  Not worth that price.  Pieces like Duffy from KC or other clubs of this ilk who are looking more like 2021 -2022 for first year of contention and just want to be respectable by getting 2 or 3 of Twins close to major league ready pitching prospects to me is much more doable.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Sorry this is off topic but I think they need to worry about the bullpen more than the rotation. 

Derailed.

[Doomtints]

Gibson he has to play just as well next year to prove he is a "late bloomer." Besides, calling him a late bloomer discredits his good pitching in 2014 and 2015. For now, let's just see if he can continue his success next year. I imagine he can, but I'm not putting any money on it.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

And I agree the bullpen is an issue. I also feel a starter or two could make their presence made in the pen. But for now, where are we in regards to the rotation for next season.

Back on track.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

SSS. Tonight doesn’t make me feel any better about our crappy bullpen

Derailed.

[Mike Sixel]

This staff is not great enough to carry them to contention next year, imo.....so if they are trying to contend this year or next, adding a legit FA or veteran in trade, with at least 3 years of control left, is the correct route, imo.

 

If they aren't serious about next year or the year after (remember, Gibson is a FA, as is Pineda, so they will need at least one or two new SPs...), then I guess I don't care what they do all that much.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I would take more than 1 of our top 3 for one of the Mets studs, they would start with Lewis and probably Gastrol, plus more.  Not worth that price.  Pieces like Duffy from KC or other clubs of this ilk who are looking more like 2021 -2022 for first year of contention and just want to be respectable by getting 2 or 3 of Twins close to major league ready pitching prospects to me is much more doable.

 

Why go for a guy like Duffy when you have them all over in your system? Go big or go home. Either go for true studs, or don't do anything at all. 

 

Boredom. That's what the Twins will give you. Year in, year out. At some point take a chance. Or, don't do anything at all. I don't want anymore mid rotation pitchers though or .700 OPS level players being traded for, or signed by this club. Use you minor league system to fill those types of spots and if you are going to trade or sign someone, make it a stud. 1 stud>3 average players any day of the week. 

[DocBauer]

Gibson he has to play just as well next year to prove he is a "late bloomer." Besides, calling him a late bloomer discredits his good pitching in 2014 and 2015. For now, let's just see if he can continue his success next year. I imagine he can, but I'm not putting any money on it.

Agree with you on Gibson in 2014 and 2015. A really bad 2016 (along with pretty much everyone) and a bad start to 2017 skews a lot of people's opinion on Gibson.

[beckmt]

 

Why go for a guy like Duffy when you have them all over in your system? Go big or go home. Either go for true studs, or don't do anything at all. 

 

Boredom. That's what the Twins will give you. Year in, year out. At some point take a chance. Or, don't do anything at all. I don't want anymore mid rotation pitchers though or .700 OPS level players being traded for, or signed by this club. Use you minor league system to fill those types of spots and if you are going to trade or sign someone, make it a stud. 1 stud>3 average players any day of the week. 

Duffy is better than most of the Twins young starters. You also need depth.  Do not trade for a superstar until it is the last piece you need to put you over the top.  Twins are a ways from that, but a few very good  pieces could push you by Cleveland.

[DocBauer]

This staff is not great enough to carry them to contention next year, imo.....so if they are trying to contend this year or next, adding a legit FA or veteran in trade, with at least 3 years of control left, is the correct route, imo.

 

If they aren't serious about next year or the year after (remember, Gibson is a FA, as is Pineda, so they will need at least one or two new SPs...), then I guess I don't care what they do all that much.

And to me, salary for such a FA or trade acquisition shouldn't be an issue. As you remind here, Gibson, Pineda and Odorizzi could all potentially be gone after 2019, or traded in 2019 if a prospect or two emerges.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Duffy is better than most of the Twins young starters. You also need depth.  Do not trade for a superstar until it is the last piece you need to put you over the top.  Twins are a ways from that, but a few very good  pieces could push you by Cleveland.

 

You need to start somewhere, so it might as well be the starting rotation. It's much easier to win games in the playoffs with a dominate rotation than it is a dominate lineup. 

[old nurse]

Bottom third in hitting, bottom half for relief. Holes abound. They have more than enough arms for the back half of the rotation. If it is not a front of the rotation starter then there assets are best used elsewhere. The problem comes in that the clubs that traded high quality assets had more in the pipeline or a young bunch already in the majors. After 2-3 years the Twins young bunch have a lot to prove.

[gman]

I don't see this team seriously competing next year so trading for or signing a number 1 type pitcher doesn't make sense to me. I think you named the starters that will pitch for the Twins next year.

Besides consistent starts the team needs consistent relief and a consistent daily lineup.

 

This is definitly a rebuilding team and unless a miracle happens, wait I think I see a flock of pigs flying overhead.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't see this team seriously competing next year so trading for or signing a number 1 type pitcher doesn't make sense to me. I think you named the starters that will pitch for the Twins next year.

Besides consistent starts the team needs consistent relief and a consistent daily lineup.

 

This is definitly a rebuilding team and unless a miracle happens, wait I think I see a flock of pigs flying overhead.

 

Why not get a great SP now, locked up for 3-5 years? It rarely works out what you exactly need will be sitting there when you need it. They are swimming in money, and their five highest paid players are all FAs after 2019 also.....

[gman]

 

Why not get a great SP now, locked up for 3-5 years? It rarely works out what you exactly need will be sitting there when you need it. They are swimming in money, and their five highest paid players are all FAs after 2019 also.....

I guess if I really had confidence in when they might make a serious breakthrough I might agree with you. My second reservation would be the longevity of a great SP 3-4 years from now. You would still have the money locked up hoping for a specific period of time hoping for the rest of the team to come together. Is the team really ready to overwhelm a pitcher just to have him in case? Would a pitcher take it with the Twins last 10 year history?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

PINEDA: The enigma for 2019. Look up his full ML numbers at your leisure. 1 1/2 season's with Seattle and 2 1/2 season's with the Yankees. What you will find is a .500 record, but decent 4.05 ERA and quality BA, WHIP, 9 SO per inning and quality SO/BB. The Twins gambled on a flier for a reason. He's no proven stud. But there are a lot of things to like here. He looked good initially in his rehab before a knee injury robbed him of valuable ML time to close the season. Healthy, how good could he be in 2019? The jury is in serious deliberation. But there is potential there for something pretty nice.

 

There is reasonable optimism the Twins have a pretty solid 4 SP to begin 2019. There is also optimism for Romero, and the FO seems to believe in him and his potential for their early season promotion of him, and he could go a long way towards building the 2019 rotation and beyond.

 

 

Pineda: 9 SO per inning? That’s the greatest pitching EVER!

 

But seriously, I anticipate the FO going after a start and a couple bullpen pieces this offseason.

[ashbury]

Pineda: 9 SO per inning? That’s the greatest pitching EVER!

Likely worst catching, as well.

[IndianaTwin]

I generally like what we have, with a couple ideas...

 

1. Given that both Gibson and Pineda are free agents after 2019, I’d try extending Gibson a bit, perhaps with a three-year offer with opt-out after two.

2. I’d also like to have a bit more experience. While a Corbin would be nice, I’d rather not go that high on a starter. I’m thinking a 2/$24MM offer for J.A. Happ. As a 36-year-old in a few weeks, I don’t see him getting a three-year deal in this environment.

 

Starting spring training with Berrios, Gibson, Happ, Odo, Pineda/Mejia as the plan and the rookies ready to step in feels better.

 

(Then, a couple of Reed/Rodney/Duke-type contracts for the bullpen and try to improve the lineup for the Mannysota Twins.)

[yarnivek1972]

I generally like what we have, with a couple ideas...

 

1. Given that both Gibson and Pineda are free agents after 2019, I’d try extending Gibson a bit, perhaps with a three-year offer with opt-out after two.

2. I’d also like to have a bit more experience. While a Corbin would be nice, I’d rather not go that high on a starter. I’m thinking a 2/$24MM offer for J.A. Happ. As a 36-year-old in a few weeks, I don’t see him getting a three-year deal in this environment.

 

Starting spring training with Berrios, Gibson, Happ, Odo, Pineda/Mejia as the plan and the rookies ready to step in feels better.

 

(Then, a couple of Reed/Rodney/Duke-type contracts for the bullpen and try to improve the lineup for the Mannysota Twins.)

If Gibson was 27 or 28, I could agree with extending him. He turns 31 next month - it sometimes doesn’t feel like he’s that old because he hasn’t even had 5 full years at the MLB level yet. He won’t be a FA until he turns 32. QO him if he does well next year. If he accepts, you have him through age 33. If he doesn’t you get the pick. Let someone else pay him in his declining years.

[IndianaTwin]

If Gibson was 27 or 28, I could agree with extending him. He turns 31 next month - it sometimes doesn’t feel like he’s that old because he hasn’t even had 5 full years at the MLB level yet. He won’t be a FA until he turns 32. QO him if he does well next year. If he accepts, you have him through age 33. If he doesn’t you get the pick. Let someone else pay him in his declining years.

There’s not a huge difference between what we’re proposing — I’m basically pushing things out a year. With the relative youth of the staff, I’d kinda like to ensure we have him in 2020. Giving him the opt out, it still gives him the chance to go after a payday if he thinks he’s earned it, but it does take away the QO possibility.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I generally like what we have, with a couple ideas...

1. Given that both Gibson and Pineda are free agents after 2019, I’d try extending Gibson a bit, perhaps with a three-year offer with opt-out after two.
2. I’d also like to have a bit more experience. While a Corbin would be nice, I’d rather not go that high on a starter. I’m thinking a 2/$24MM offer for J.A. Happ. As a 36-year-old in a few weeks, I don’t see him getting a three-year deal in this environment.

Starting spring training with Berrios, Gibson, Happ, Odo, Pineda/Mejia as the plan and the rookies ready to step in feels better.

(Then, a couple of Reed/Rodney/Duke-type contracts for the bullpen and try to improve the lineup for the Mannysota Twins.)

 

I'm tired of aiming low......so I hope they don't agree with you. How does JA Happ get you to the WS?