2019 1B options

[mlhouse]

I think the Twins need to commit to Rooker being the 1B next season. 

 

If I ran the Twins they would look like this:

 

C   Mitch Garver

1B   Brent Rooker

2B   Nick Gordon

SS   Royce Lewis

3B   Polanco/Arrea  (Both play utility roles)

 

OF  Rosario

OF   Cave/Buxton

OF   Kepler

OF  Kirilloff/Wade

 

DH  Sano  (With some of the OFs rotating in).

 

Does this lineup win next season?  No.  But putting in the other available names does not win either.

[jorgenswest]

Thanks for bringing a smile to my face by mentioning Craig Kusick. For some reason, I have the vivid memory of choosing to sit in Dad’s pickup truck to listen to the game over watching the tractor pull and hearing the announcers talk about this Craig Kusick guy making his debut. I was only seven, but I was pretty sure that he had the skills to replace Mr. Killebrew. Uh, not so much.

And below is link to exactly the baseball card that came to mind when I thought of him.

As to Briggs, I could never be a big fan of him because I was mad that they had traded my guy Bobby Darwin to get him. https://img.comc.com/ebay-both/85ab2a7a-a4e9-401d-b48e-1af40102946e.jpg?refresh

Bobby Darwin... one of my favorites.

 

In 1962 he was a 19 year old in his first season in the minors. He struck out 202 batters in 153 innings. He also walked 149. Imagine his pitch counts in those games. His promise was enough that the Angels moved him up to the majors for a September start at 19. Arm trouble followed and he found his way to the outfield.

[Kelly Vance]

 

You know he's "played hurt many times" how, exactly?

 

He had a history of knee and leg issues when he was a catcher. His concussions are fairly recent problems. All of this is well known. 

 

For the record, he's played 150 games in a season exactly once. As many as 140 games in a season another 4 times. That's 9 seasons of under 140 games, out of 14, not including 2018 (which will be under 130.) He is now a part time player, there is really no disputing that, even disregarding the injury time off.

 

So what?  Its not your money. 

 

I also dispute "he is as capable of hitting .300 now as ever." He's done it once since 2013, just barely, and the other seasons since '13 are all under .280. And of course the BA comes with almost no power.

 

He hit over .300 for much of 2017. 

 

And call me a simpleton, but I don't think "gravitas" wins baseball games.

 

OK, you're a simpleton. 

 

I stand by my opinion...

 

That's fine with me.

 

it shouldn't be up to Mauer whether or not he plays for the Twins in 2019. If he wants to play, it should be up to the front office to decide if he's the best option to help win games.

 

Of course. Then there is that little thing about selling tickets. 

 

And if that's the best the front office can do, well, that's not a very encouraging sign.

 

Well, I don't feel at all discouraged. Loyalty is a two way street

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Im all about a good debate. A few of you have brought good arguments/plans that keep Joe and some let him walk. Very cool.

That said, do we really have to keep belaboring that Joe doesnt hit for power paleez?

The stat guys would point to data sets that say that powe is not joes only problem. Hes not driving runs or scoring enough runs. And i would say to them do u you watch the games?

Yes, i am a Mauer fan. Believe it or not i think hes one of the mostunderrated in the game.


Giving professional at bats, turning a lineup over, saving the left side of errorrs, scaring the hell out of Verlander. Where does this show up in the box score - or in the new metrics?


As for the Kirby guy. Be careful on your heros - theres some darkness there.

 

Well, the lack of power gets amplified when the other facets of his game also dip.  And when you move to playing first base.

 

It's a legitimate argument.  Maybe not fair in the sense that Mauer can't do anything about it, but it is fair to this discussion about whether or not he's wise to retain next year.

[nicksaviking]

 

Like hell.

Joe is the ultimate gamer. He has played hurt many times and a fair person would give him credit for that.  None of the guys you would replace him with has Joe's gravitas. And where is the loyalty?  He is someone that is a historical franchise cornerstone. Like the the Brew and Kirby.  He deserves more respect than you give him. And that means he and the FO get to decide when its over, not feckless fans. Besides, he is as capable of hitting .300 now as ever.

I hope for a restful offseason and one more cup o Joe next year. 

 

Loyalty and gravitas might put people in the stands, but they don't win championships.

 

If you have a player who puts up subpar offensive numbers and you can't bench him should better options emerge, either due to the player's status, the manager's loyalty or misguided fan demand, you shouldn't have that player on your team. 

 

This organization needs to do what's best for the team on the field, not for an individual player and not for ticket sales.

[nicksaviking]

 

I guess if you want to put Mauer on the bench, he's a decent option, but again, you're only going to get 1B, DH, and PHing from him. If he hasn't played 3b or RF by now, he's not going to.

 

 

I'm only ok with resigning Mauer if he's essentially a stop-gap until Rooker or some other long-term option is available.

 

He's just not productive enough at this point to justify a roster spot.  But I don't give him a contract longer than a year and probably not for more than 6-7M.

 

Maybe I'm alone, but I'm operating on the assumption that there's no way that Mauer would agree to or the organization would allow Mauer to be a bench bat. If that assumption is wrong, I'm Ok with him coming back and primarily riding pine.

[yarnivek1972]

Maybe I'm alone, but I'm operating on the assumption that there's no way that Mauer would agree to or the organization would allow Mauer to be a bench bat. If that assumption is wrong, I'm Ok with him coming back and primarily riding pine.

In this day and age, there’s no such thing as a bench “bat”. A team’s bench is reserves. A catcher, an infielder and an outfielder. That is often it for AL teams. This is why position flexibility is so important and not surprisingly, an aspect the Twins find themselves behind the curve on.

[ffwfed31]

You can't bring him back as backup/bench bat.  Molly just can't say no to under producing veteran ie belisle morrison grossy wilson.

[Brandon]

I look at it this way.  what can we expect Mauer to accomplish next season?

 

I think he would play around 120 games at 1B and 20 games at DH so about 140 games next year.  

 

I am confident he will play near gold glove defense.

 

He will not give away outs on the bases.

 

While his average will probably be between .270 and maybe .290, his on-base percentage will likely be in the .360 - .380 range.  (That is his ticket as we have no one else in the lineup who gets close to that on a regular basis) 

 

as far as power goes he does hit 2Bs at a decent enough clip.  can he get 30 2Bs?  or at least 40 XBHs next year.  

 

I feel like he does a lot of the small things well and I can see the value of having him on the team.  just not at 23 million.

 

Also I don't think Austin is his long-term replacement.  I am confident we have a good option coming through the system such as Rooker, Killeroff, Larnach, and Jeffers.  As long as Joe isn't blocking one of these guys for more than half a season I am good with him being here.  

[jkcarew]

 

While his average will probably be between .270 and maybe .290, his on-base percentage will likely be in the .360 - .380 range.  (That is his ticket as we have no one else in the lineup who gets close to that on a regular basis) 

Optimistic.  His OBP over the last 5 years is just under 360...this year it's about 350, meanwhile he's getting older.  Having said that, an OBP of 340+ would still be expected to be one of the better on the team....and I don't quibble with your overall conclusion.  Given the alternatives, it wouldn't kill me to see them bring Joe back for 2019.  But I really want us to try to do better at that position (like several other positions) sooner rather than later.

[old nurse]

 

Of Course it’s on the manager.

If the producer of the Nutcracker hires Ernest Borgnine for the role of the lead nutcracker guy for 10 million dollars.

And the Director works with Ernest Borgnine and is satisfied with his work and the show hits the stage for a long run.

If the reviews of the Show and Ernest are ho hum and the attendance dwindles. But... the producer and manager insist on going back to Ernest Borgnine and don’t effort to try a new nutcracker guy.

I’m not sure how you put that on Ernest Borgnine.

It would be a God worthy trick at this point to produce Borgnine for any production. Could he bring back Jerry Orbach, too?

[yarnivek1972]

I look at it this way. what can we expect Mauer to accomplish next season?

 

I think he would play around 120 games at 1B and 20 games at DH so about 140 games next year.

 

I am confident he will play near gold glove defense.

 

He will not give away outs on the bases.

 

While his average will probably be between .270 and maybe .290, his on-base percentage will likely be in the .360 - .380 range. (That is his ticket as we have no one else in the lineup who gets close to that on a regular basis)

 

as far as power goes he does hit 2Bs at a decent enough clip. can he get 30 2Bs? or at least 40 XBHs next year.

 

I feel like he does a lot of the small things well and I can see the value of having him on the team. just not at 23 million.

 

Also I don't think Austin is his long-term replacement. I am confident we have a good option coming through the system such as Rooker, Killeroff, Larnach, and Jeffers. As long as Joe isn't blocking one of these guys for more than half a season I am good with him being here.

Jorge Polanco started play today with an obp of .356. There’s plenty of reason to believe that he is capable of sustaining it.

 

 

The value of Mauer’s performance to date (and basically what you are projecting from him next year) will amount to about 1 bWAR. Maybe a hair above.

With the amount of money the Twins have to spend, if the FO can’t get better production than that from 1b, they should resign.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Maybe I'm alone, but I'm operating on the assumption that there's no way that Mauer would agree to or the organization would allow Mauer to be a bench bat. If that assumption is wrong, I'm Ok with him coming back and primarily riding pine.

 

You're probably right, but we might also be roughly at a place where a one year stopgap player at 1B is what we need.

 

Now, personally, I'd rather gamble on someone trying to rebuild their value with those at-bats, but I do think we're a year or so away from Rooker.  So how do we fill that gap until then?

[gocgo]

I really like that Logan Morrison guy...tremendous upside.  Not much downside...in terms of where he could go from this year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I really like that Logan Morrison guy...tremendous upside.  Not much downside...in terms of where he could go from this year.

 

No such thing as a bad 1 year deal, after all.....

[nicksaviking]

 

You're probably right, but we might also be roughly at a place where a one year stopgap player at 1B is what we need.

 

Now, personally, I'd rather gamble on someone trying to rebuild their value with those at-bats, but I do think we're a year or so away from Rooker.  So how do we fill that gap until then?

 

If there's a stop gap year I'd much prefer to take advantage of it by using Sano, Austin and Kepler at 1B. Doing so would allow them to sign or trade for a corner OF or 3B which presumably would be an upgrade to Mauer offensively.

 

Though if there's a roster spot and need I don't think Rooker will spend another full season in the minors. Or even most of one.

[nicksaviking]

 

No such thing as a bad 1 year deal, after all.....

 

Yeah, I'm a believer in that but I guess the Twins are now going to make us start adding the caveat ...'assuming the front office cuts him or the manager benches him if he stinks.'

[Mike Sixel]

It is possible the Twins need Kepler in CF next year too, which puts a small cramper in my plan.....

[yarnivek1972]

It is possible the Twins need Kepler in CF next year too, which puts a small cramper in my plan.....

Yes, I mentioned as well that part of this plan was Buxton performing as a MLB hitter.

 

Supposedly, the Twins farm system ranks sixth in the latest rankings. I wonder if those take into account how soon guys might be able to help. There’s maybe one position player within the next 12 months.

[nicksaviking]

 

Yes, I mentioned as well that part of this plan was Buxton performing as a MLB hitter.

Supposedly, the Twins farm system ranks sixth in the latest rankings. I wonder if those take into account how soon guys might be able to help. There’s maybe one position player within the next 12 months.

 

I'd think Rooker and Wade would be able to compete for corner spots allowing Kepler to man CF should that be a need.

 

But with a 6th ranked system that runs pretty deep, I'd probably be interested in packaging a bunch of prospects for a difference making bat or two. 

 

Bottom line is the Twins have so many more options besides status quo.

[Borealis]

Thanks for bringing a smile to my face by mentioning Craig Kusick. For some reason, I have the vivid memory of choosing to sit in Dad’s pickup truck to listen to the game over watching the tractor pull and hearing the announcers talk about this Craig Kusick guy making his debut. I was only seven, but I was pretty sure that he had the skills to replace Mr. Killebrew. Uh, not so much.

 

And below is link to exactly the baseball card that came to mind when I thought of him.

 

As to Briggs, I could never be a big fan of him because I was mad that they had traded my guy Bobby Darwin to get him.

 

https://img.comc.com/ebay-both/85ab2a7a-a4e9-401d-b48e-1af40102946e.jpg?refresh

I second the thanks on the mentioning of Kusick. I had the priveledge of playing summer ball for him as a high schooler and was also friends with his son, so I got to know his family.

 

I have some cool memories of stories he would share regarding life in the big leagues, like facing Nolan Ryan a handful of times. He said he struck out almost all of em, but finally got a hold of one and took him yard. How cool would that be?

 

I also have a memory grabbing of him a bat one time and jumping in our batting cage. He was ticked off at how some of my teammates were hitting, so it was lesson time. I was the one throwing BP and was terrified. I had the L-Screen in there, but had serious doubts on its effectiveness to protect me. But terror aside, it’s difficult to put in words how good his hands were in that on the spot lesson we witnessed. I share this because it’s mind boggling to try to comprehend how good one has to be to even be a mediocre a major leaguer. I was fortunate enough to play some college and town ball as a young adult myself, witnessing real talent on ocassion, but those big hands of Kusick’s snapping the bat back at me really stands out.

 

So I just remembered how this forum started - who’s on first. In relation to the hitting lesson described above with Kuse, I’m not sure I could wrap my brain around getting a hitting lesson from Mauer. smh one of the best pure hitters of all time and people want to jettison him. smh

[TheLeviathan]

 

If there's a stop gap year I'd much prefer to take advantage of it by using Sano, Austin and Kepler at 1B. Doing so would allow them to sign or trade for a corner OF or 3B which presumably would be an upgrade to Mauer offensively.

 

Though if there's a roster spot and need I don't think Rooker will spend another full season in the minors. Or even most of one.

 

I would rather keep Sano at 3B until we absolutely have to move him.  I'd rather see if there is some AAAA player or reclamation project at 1B.  I was merely suggesting that a 1 year deal for Mauer isn't the absolute worst idea if everyone understands what he is.  (Which, as I say it, is basically not realistic)

[Brandon]

Mauer's production at 5-6 million fine I can live with that.

 

at 23 million we need to cut the cord.  

 

Lets see how much he costs for next  year.  but due to not many options and only a stop gap is needed I see no reason why if Mauer wants to play next year they don't just resign him.  

[USAFChief]

How about betting on Josh Donaldson instead of Mauer? Put Sano at first, where he’s going to eventually end up anyway.

 

The Twins need above average players. Betting on a Mauer, even if you get a .750 OPS, is just a recipe for more mediocrity. I’d rather bet on something that will actually be an asset if you hit, than bet on something that gets you nowhere if it hits.

 

If Donaldson comes back healthy and productive, you’ve got a .900 OPS RH hitting third baseman, and perhaps the same at 1b.

[drew_7726]

 

Sano at 1B. Escobar at 3B. Polcanco at 2B.....Machado at SS. Simple!

i like your thinking!!!!

[birddog]

Joe is a great fielding 1B, but come on: .269, 3 HRs and 34 RBIs?! That is pathetic for middle infielders but for a 1B? Are you really going to tell me that is worth $12 million? No way. We could easily sign Escobar for that figure and get a better player at this stage of their careers. And we would not waste Escobar at 1B because he is too valuable at other positions. Though I believe he would field that position as well or better than Joe if needed there.

 

No way do I want another season of Morrison--who would?--but we could easily get a 1B with much better offensive production than Mauer for $5 million without being a hack with the glove. Not too long ago we were angry at Punto for those numbers. Trade some of the prospects we have accumulated and get players who have produced but whose teams want to save some money. Let's stop settling for okay. We have the money next year. Let's take on players in their prime who have performed. Joe was great, yes. But his prime is long gone and him coming back does not make us better.

[Borealis]

For all the stat guys out there - Joe’s 2017 numbers:

(thru Aug when story was written by SB)

 

Low Leverage: .616 OPS

Medium Leverage: .850 OPS

High Leverage: 1.024 OPS

 

Pretty good for a guy way past his prime.

[drivlikejehu]

A Mauer/Austin platoon wouldn't be the worst thing in the world per se, though I'm not crazy about it from a roster construction standpoint. I'm just not sure about the alternatives . . . moving Sano or Kepler reduces their value and opens a hole elsewhere. 

[Riverbrian]

 

moving Sano or Kepler reduces their value and opens a hole elsewhere. 

 

It doesn't reduce their value. 

[MN_ExPat]

 

Exactly

 

I love Joe and I think he can help us win ball games in 2019 and would be happy to have him back. 

 

However... he can end up hurting us more than he helps us if he is not managed correctly and right now... I see no indication that he will be managed correctly. 

 

The chain reaction would be things like:

 

Joe comes back

Molitor hands Joe the 1B job and deploys him like he did this year. Joe plays everyday apart from his regularly scheduled days of rest

 

As a result... Tyler Austin takes over the Logan Morrison role as the primary DH with 1B on Joe's regularly scheduled days of rest. 

 

As a result... The option of Playing Sano at DH is greatly reduced. 

 

As a result... Sano plays much less 1B and DH which forces Sano into the everyday 3B job. Which prevents us from signing or trading for a different 3B such as Donaldson or Escobar or whoever. 

 

In addition... This prevents Kepler being utilized as a 1B on occasion.

 

As a result of that... You don't sign a 4th outfielder because you don't have space due to the lack of OF Flexibility to accommodate the 4th OF or potential Jake Cave playing time goes unrewarded if he is producing. 

 

After it is all said done... you've just repeated the same mistake made in 2016 and 2018 by limiting your options.

 

And yes... all of this can stem from simply bringing back Joe... who I love. 

 

Until we get a manager who can manage 25 guys better than they were managed this year. I see problems with Joe on the roster in 2019 and that's a shame because I think he can help us win games. 

Awesome wright up River.   Well said.