Article: Dozier Hasn't Changed and Could Pay Big For Twins

[rdehring]

Gonna go out on a limb.  The Twins are in Boston next weekend, right before the trading deadline.  Boston has an excellent second baseman who seems to be out for the year.  Makes a lot of sense that Dozier would trade locker rooms at Fenway sometime during that series.  You know, kind of like Mientkiewiscz did at the Metro Dome all those years ago!  And didn't the Sox go on to win the World Series that year?  Or was it a year later?

 

Only question is what will the Twins get in return.  Expect it will be less than many of us hope for, but probably more than many of us fear!

Edited July 22, 2018 by rdehring

[Riverbrian]

 

Dozier this year is playing about league average second base.  Of course one ****ty game and the pitchforks come out. 

 

You should probably take a look at their hands. You'll notice the blisters.

 

They've had a strong grip on those pitchforks for awhile. 

 

 

[jimmer]

 

Ummmm no, no one expected Dozier to be in AAA his 1st season in minor league ball. The point is Gordon is a 22 year old who's already reached AAA. He has a lot of time and development to go before he reaches his peak. 

 

This really is not a difficult concept. Have you never considered what age a player is before?

If y'all are encouraged that a 5th overall draft pick in his fifth season of pro ball is sitting in AAA with a .602 OPS just because he's 22 (which, of course he is 22 years old, he was drafted out of high school), then that's great. I see a player who hasn't dominated any level he's been promoted from, who likely gets switched off shortstop, and who will likely be a utility player when it's all said and done. And he was a 5th overall pick. We haven't gotten much from our recent high draft picks (though I still have hopes from Buxton).  I don't think this organization has shown that following the Astros blueprint is something they can do successfully (though, in fairness, the new organization hasn't had much time).

Edited July 22, 2018 by jimmer

[jorgenswest]

I am neither excited nor concerned about Gordon. I am confident he will be a starting and contributing major league infielder. The Twins need to be patient and make sure he has demonstrated command of the strike zone in AAA. That will happen though maybe not timed with Dozier’s departure.

[jun]

 

from 15-now Brian Dozier has scored the sixth most runs in baseball. He has had the 18th most RBI. If it is all about runs the Dozier would be a superstar

He's been hitting mostly leadoff and he's been extremely durable. That explains the stats. He is one of the worst hitters when RISP. If that makes him a superstar, I don't know what else to say.

[alarp33]

If y'all are encouraged that a 5th overall draft pick in his fifth season of pro ball is sitting in AAA with a .602 OPS just because he's 22 (which, of course he is 22 years old, he was drafted out of high school), then that's great. I see a player who hasn't dominated any level he's been promoted from, who likely gets switched off shortstop, and who will likely be a utility player when it's all said and done. And he was a 5th overall pick. We haven't gotten much from our recent high draft picks (though I still have hopes from Buxton). I don't think this organization has shown that following the Astros blueprint is something they can do successfully (though, in fairness, the new organization hasn't had much time).

Giving up on a 22 year old who’s played 50 games in AAA is odd to say the least

[old nurse]

 

He's been hitting mostly leadoff and he's been extremely durable. That explains the stats. He is one of the worst hitters when RISP. If that makes him a superstar, I don't know what else to say.

You said runs are what matters.  Dozier scores runs and drives in runs.  Runs were your stand and Dozier has number that are very favorable for run production.

[jun]

 

Subjective measure or objective measure?

I only look at batting avg when RISP because that's what matters the most.

[jun]

To be fair, Dozier has demonstrated the ability to get on base and Escobar has demonstrated the ability to drive in runs when RISP. Escobar just started to show more power when getting regular AB.

[jimmer]

To be fair, Dozier has demonstrated the ability to get on base and Escobar has demonstrated the ability to drive in runs when RISP. Escobar just started to show more power when getting regular AB.

isn't Dozier's seasin OBP in the very low .300s? Edited July 22, 2018 by jimmer

[caninatl04]

Getting back to the original thesis. Could he command a “nice haul”? My guess is a prospect who would rank somewhere between 20 and 30 on an updated Twins prospect list

[notoriousgod71]

The pessimism regarding his trade value is completely based on two years ago when we couldn't get anything for him coming off his best season.

[Tomj14]

 

He's been hitting mostly leadoff and he's been extremely durable. That explains the stats. He is one of the worst hitters when RISP. If that makes him a superstar, I don't know what else to say.

Dozier's OPS RISP
2013 - .841
2014 - .727
2015 - .774
2016 - .856
2017 - .879
2018 - .676

 

Granted this year is terrible, but over his carrier he hasn't been. Sadly for this year that isn't far off from his overall numbers.

 

[Dman]

 

If y'all are encouraged that a 5th overall draft pick in his fifth season of pro ball is sitting in AAA with a .602 OPS just because he's 22 (which, of course he is 22 years old, he was drafted out of high school), then that's great. I see a player who hasn't dominated any level he's been promoted from, who likely gets switched off shortstop, and who will likely be a utility player when it's all said and done. And he was a 5th overall pick. We haven't gotten much from our recent high draft picks (though I still have hopes from Buxton).  I don't think this organization has shown that following the Astros blueprint is something they can do successfully (though, in fairness, the new organization hasn't had much time).

 

While I get that the odds of Gordon ever becoming a Super Star like Lindor or Corea are grim.  I guess I still don't understand the pessimistic view.  The guy bats around 280 or 290 at each level.  He has good contact skills as he doesn't strike out much and has a canon for an arm.  He has been young for each level he has played at and is finally struggling a little in AAA like most players do.  Pegging him as a likely Utility man at this stage seems incredibly pessimistic.  The kid is still pretty skinny and needs some time to fill out so likely a bit a of late bloomer but if he is your standard for bust then apparently it is super star or bust for you.

 

I agree it would be nice if the Twins only drafted super stars but every team would like to do that.  Unfortunately it is hard to predict how players will perform.  Gordon is far from their worst pick and I wouldn't even say a bad pick yet.

[Tomj14]

 

If y'all are encouraged that a 5th overall draft pick in his fifth season of pro ball is sitting in AAA with a .602 OPS just because he's 22 (which, of course he is 22 years old, he was drafted out of high school), then that's great. I see a player who hasn't dominated any level he's been promoted from, who likely gets switched off shortstop, and who will likely be a utility player when it's all said and done. And he was a 5th overall pick. We haven't gotten much from our recent high draft picks (though I still have hopes from Buxton).  I don't think this organization has shown that following the Astros blueprint is something they can do successfully (though, in fairness, the new organization hasn't had much time).

To be honest I am discouraged. He is the guy I wanted to Twins to draft that year and I was really hoping the floor was going to be his brother and as of now he is not living up to that (for me). While I am discouraged I am really hopeful he figures something out and becomes Brian Dozier. (a top 3- 12 major league second basemen averaging 3.5+ WAR for 7 plus years)

 

But I am also the guy that hates taking a high school kid in the first round and he takes 7-8 to be a average major league player.

[Taildragger8791]

I could see Gordon progressing similarly to Denard Span. Their minor league numbers aren't that different for the ages and levels. Span didn't really break out until he was 24 (7th year, but didn't play in his draft year). Strikeout/walk rates fluctuate from "barely acceptable" to "good, not great". But if he ends up an average MLB starter then that is certainly an acceptable outcome. You need those kinds of guys too, especially when they're on rookie-scale deals.

 

That said, I understand the (misdirected) angst because at some point you do need an actual star or two to turn out from all of these high draft picks and key IFAs. A lineup of average Joes is going to struggle to win anything more than the occasional weak division.

[alarp33]

 

To be honest I am discouraged. He is the guy I wanted to Twins to draft that year and I was really hoping the floor was going to be his brother and as of now he is not living up to that (for me). 

 

When his brother turned 26 years old he had played in 181 games and compiled a bWAR of -0.7

 

Nick Gordon is 22 and has played 50 games in AAA 

[Tomj14]

 

When his brother turned 26 years old he had played in 181 games and compiled a bWAR of -0.7

 

Nick Gordon is 22 and has played 50 games in AAA 

To Clarify I was hoping it wouldn't take 5+ Plus year in the minors to get where is brother was at age 26.

Plus Dee had only played about 350 games in the minors by Nick's current age with better stats, compared to Nick's 535 games.

Like I said above, I am hopeful he gets there (really, really hopeful), but a career minor league player with a .333 OBP and .390  SLG. usually doesn't turn into everyday player and quasi All Star.

 

Edited July 23, 2018 by Tomj14

[alarp33]

 

To Clarify I was hoping it wouldn't take 5+ Plus year in the minors to get where is brother was at age 26.

 

 

You literally wrote he's not living up to his brother. His brother was not a productive Major leaguer until he was 26/27. Nick Gordon is 22

[Tomj14]

 

You literally wrote he's not living up to his brother. His brother was not a productive Major leaguer until he was 26/27. Nick Gordon is 22

I wrote "I was really hoping the floor was going to be his brother and as of now he is not living up to that (for me)"

The for me is the important part, I am not trying to sway anybody else, it is my opinion. Dee didn't play baseball until high school because he was wanted to be a basketball player.

So taking that and that Dee was a 4th rounder and not the 5th overall pick, I don't think he living up to that, if you do that is great, I am not going to argue that.

 

The definition of discouraged is having lost confidence or enthusiasm; disheartened.

That is where I am right now.

[old nurse]

 

I only look at batting avg when RISP because that's what matters the most.

So you look at the batting average and not the result of the batting which shows him to be near the top in run production. RISP to talent suffers from SSS and that SF do not count towards RISP but do count towards run production

[alarp33]

 

I wrote "I was really hoping the floor was going to be his brother and as of now he is not living up to that (for me)"

The for me is the important part, I am not trying to sway anybody else, it is my opinion. Dee didn't play baseball until high school because he was wanted to be a basketball player.

So taking that and that Dee was a 4th rounder and not the 5th overall pick, I don't think he living up to that, if you do that is great, I am not going to argue that.

 

The definition of discouraged is having lost confidence or enthusiasm; disheartened.

That is where I am right now.

 

Dee was drafted out of CC, not out of high school. Nick has reached every minor league level at a much younger age. I'm just confused by what your criteria is because you haven't given a reason yet why he hasn't lived up to his brother?

[Platoon]

You should probably take a look at their hands. You'll notice the blisters.

 

They've had a strong grip on those pitchforks for awhile. 

When we were kids our dad always told us it doesn't take a strong man to break a pitch fork handle, only a stupid one. We proved him right way too often. I know that has nothing to do with BD, but all the pitchfork talk brought back the memory. .

[launchingthrees]

 

Giving up on a 22 year old who’s played 50 games in AAA is odd to say the least

 

I'd call it hacky analysis, but odd works as a descriptor too. Steamer projects Gordon as a slightly below league average offensive SS at the age of 22. Anyone suggesting he is a bust shouldn't be taken seriously. Of all the things to be negative about...

Edited July 24, 2018 by launchingthrees