Article: Potential Suitors for Brian Dozier

[jkcarew]

 

YOu can have your own opinion on this.  I simply presented the facts.  This is potential leverage against the Twins in any negotiations because to a contender they want to push his value down.  It is the art of the deal. 

 

On the underlined, I know full well that close and late numbers are usually slightly lower, but it isn't in this case.  His numbers are SIGNIFICANLY lower than his output in other situations.  Not just a little bit, a lotta bit. 

 

Am I somehow wrong in these points?

No.  You are citing data that is real.  Where we are disagreeing is in what the data means and how (or if) it would materially impact Dozier's trade value in a 2-3 month rental scenario.  So, the things we are disagreeing on are subjective and a matter of opinion. 

[stringer bell]

Dozier has been the Twins' best player for the last four years. He hit over 40 homers in 2016 and has led the team in homers for the last four years. No other Twins has done that since Killebrew.

 

This year he hasn't been the team's best player, not even close. But he does have a history of having big second halves, and did so in both '16 and '17. He also had a poor second half in 2015, so maybe all we can expect is one torrid half out of two.

 

I believe potential suitors will look at more than this year's poor numbers and his close and late stats. Dozier has proven to be durable and productive and trading for him for August and September and perhaps October could and should make a lot of sense for a contender needing a second baseman. I would think that someone would see him as the piece that puts them over the top.

 

I do agree with Jorgen that most players close and late numbers in this era will be a far cry from their overall numbers. If you're facing the closer and setup guy, it's a lot tougher than hitting against the last guy or two in the 'pen.

[jorgenswest]

I am not pretending to have a crystal ball.  Nowhere have I predicted what he might do in the second half because that is pie in the sky nothing.  In this situation, I stick to the facts. Teams possibly interested in Dozier will use whatever they can to get him for less.  If these numbers are avaiilable to laypeople like us, don't you think office executives who do this for a living witl use myriad stats (these included) during the negotiation process?

 

Put all that aside, and just look at where he is now.  This was supposed to be the year for him to play for a mulityear contract.  If he gets injured or doesn't have a very strong second half he isn't going to get the deal he was hoping for before this season.  NOt even close.

I would guess that every team has people knowledgeable about data and statistics to disregard the splits meaning for future performance. The negotiation isn’t going to come down to data in a split.

 

It is going to be the market that sets his return. If there are multiple teams truly interested the Twins will get a better return but I am not certain that there will be a high demand for second basemen. I think the market is the relevant conversation about possible Dozier deals.

[Tuba]

Dozier is hitting .278 / .350 / .611 in July and is notorious for his second half finishes, he has decent value.

[ewen21]

 

No.  You are citing data that is real.  Where we are disagreeing is in what the data means and how (or if) it would materially impact Dozier's trade value in a 2-3 month rental scenario.  So, the things we are disagreeing on are subjective and a matter of opinion. 

Yes, this opinions are subjective, but you are dealing in absolutes when you assert the data as completely irrelevant in the negotiation process.  Not sure how you can do that.  You are essentially saying it will have no affect at all and I don't see how there is a 0% chance those numbers don't get looked at or considered.  

 

I surely want to get as much for Dozier as we can, but we didn't get many bites last year and that was when he was slightly more than a two month rental

[ewen21]

 

I would guess that every team has people knowledgeable about data and statistics to disregard the splits meaning for future performance. The negotiation isn’t going to come down to data in a split.

It is going to be the market that sets his return. If there are multiple teams truly interested the Twins will get a better return but I am not certain that there will be a high demand for second basemen. I think the market is the relevant conversation about possible Dozier deals.

 

I never said the negotiation hinged on those splits.  It was only an example of ways Dozier's value can be further deflated.  As I said in the last post, there wasn't a market for him last year.  There isn't much of a market this year and he now only a two month rental.

 

I guess we can sell the "Dozier gets hot in the second half angle" but then that is only lip service.  What team is going to part with anything much by pinning their hopes on that?

[ewen21]

 

I do agree with Jorgen that most players close and late numbers in this era will be a far cry from their overall numbers. If you're facing the closer and setup guy, it's a lot tougher than hitting against the last guy or two in the 'pen.

That was never in dispute.  It is a statistical fact that players (by and large) have worse "close and late" numbers but in the case of Dozier it is rather significant.  He is also a veteran with no postseason experience.  That can be a factor working against as well.

 

I am only saying what the other side of the market is going to do.  They will accentuate negatives as a means to counter the Twins.  I am not going to say "other teams should want Dozier because..."

 

[old nurse]

 

That was never in dispute.  It is a statistical fact that players (by and large) have worse "close and late" numbers but in the case of Dozier it is rather significant.  He is also a veteran with no postseason experience.  That can be a factor working against as well.

 

I am only saying what the other side of the market is going to do.  They will accentuate negatives as a means to counter the Twins.  I am not going to say "other teams should want Dozier because..."

Dozier has no postreason experience? That was such a forgetable game last year.   What would the postseason statistics of Castro and Lowrie say about them versus the SSS of Dozier's wc game last year?  Hint Casro and Starlins OPS are about .500 after each has played in 22 games.  It makes a case that these two choked whereas Dozier shined.

[alarp33]

 

I am only saying what the other side of the market is going to do.  They will accentuate negatives as a means to counter the Twins.  I am not going to say "other teams should want Dozier because..."

 

You do not know that, which is why everyone is disagreeing with your posts. That is not how negotiations work.  "We will really need a 2nd baseman and RH bat, but I don't know, we have seen the numbers and in 2013 Brian Dozier in close and late situations was brutal"

[ewen21]

 

You do not know that, which is why everyone is disagreeing with your posts. That is not how negotiations work.  "We will really need a 2nd baseman and RH bat, but I don't know, we have seen the numbers and in 2013 Brian Dozier in close and late situations was brutal"

You seriously don't believe the buyer teams who express interest don't also express any concerns about the player they are interested in acquiring?  You seriously don't think they try to drive the price down?

 

I only expressed only ONE WAY how they might do that.  I didn't even bring up his "clutchness" or lack of it.  I simply responded to a poster who dismissed it as nothing.  I am saying it MIGHT NOT be nothing to the buyer teams.

 

The stuff you put in quotes is your own fabrication.  Please don't try to pawn that junk off on me.

Thanks

[ewen21]

 

Dozier has no postreason experience? That was such a forgetable game last year.   What would the postseason statistics of Castro and Lowrie say about them versus the SSS of Dozier's wc game last year?  Hint Casro and Starlins OPS are about .500 after each has played in 22 games.  It makes a case that these two choked whereas Dozier shined.

 

That one game "playoff" might be the post season to you.  It isn't to me.  That game was only a chance to make it to the post season.

[ewen21]

Not meaning to be argumentative.  WIth that, I will pull myself out of here for a few days

 

Take care

[old nurse]

 

That one game "playoff" might be the post season to you.  It isn't to me.  That game was only a chance to make it to the post season.

Call it what you will, the statistics sites list it as postseason. The game happens after the season ends. What is undeniable is that for the argument that Dozier does not have post season to be a valuable argument is that someone else available does have post season success.. That is not the case with the OP selections of 2b available players.  Kinsler has done well,4 years ago when he was a better player than the last couple of years. With the number of 2b available the price may well be cheaper than a fill in reliever.  The Reds, Marlins or Angels may well take a warm body.

Manny Machado has a post season OPS of .588. I do not think very many people would hold that against him. 

[Mike Sixel]

Colorado is back in the hunt.....I really want Jon Gray. Wonder if Lynn, Dozier, and Rodney (and taking back part of a bad contract from CO) would get it done?

 

If not, I'd do Gibson and Dozier....

[TheLeviathan]

 

Colorado is back in the hunt.....I really want Jon Gray. Wonder if Lynn, Dozier, and Rodney (and taking back part of a bad contract from CO) would get it done?

 

If not, I'd do Gibson and Dozier....

 

Why would they want Dozier?  I doubt they move LeMahieu or supplant him.

[alarp33]

 

Colorado is back in the hunt.....I really want Jon Gray. Wonder if Lynn, Dozier, and Rodney (and taking back part of a bad contract from CO) would get it done?

 

If not, I'd do Gibson and Dozier....

 

I know he's in AAA currently but the Rockies aren't trading Gray for expiring contracts. If they do trade him it will be for prospects, and probably pretty good ones

[Mike Sixel]

 

I know he's in AAA currently but the Rockies aren't trading Gray for expiring contracts. If they do trade him it will be for prospects, and probably pretty good ones

 

A guy can dream......

[TheLeviathan]

 

A guy can dream......

 

Rodney and a good prospect maybe?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Rodney and a good prospect maybe?

 

Gibson, Rodney, ok prospect? that might get it done.....or, you know, take back one of their terrible contracts......and reduce the MN cost....

[TheLeviathan]

 

Gibson, Rodney, ok prospect? that might get it done.....or, you know, take back one of their terrible contracts......and reduce the MN cost....

 

I would deal Gibson and Rodney for Gray in a heartbeat.  I could see Colorado being open to it to, but it depends how frustrated they are behind the scenes with him.  It's worth a call for sure.

[alarp33]

 

I would deal Gibson and Rodney for Gray in a heartbeat.  I could see Colorado being open to it to, but it depends how frustrated they are behind the scenes with him.  It's worth a call for sure.

 

By nearly any measure Gray has been a better pitcher than Gibson throughout their careers. And he has 2 more years of team control than Gibson. Why in the world would that be even worth considering for CO?

 

And if for some reason he was put on the block, you don't think 28 other teams wouldn't make an offer better than that?

Edited July 12, 2018 by alarp33

[nicksaviking]

 

Colorado is back in the hunt.....I really want Jon Gray. Wonder if Lynn, Dozier, and Rodney (and taking back part of a bad contract from CO) would get it done?

 

If not, I'd do Gibson and Dozier....

 

I don't know about the Rockies trading for MI, but Gray looks like a guy who needs to get out of Colorado. He doesn't throw a sinker which is basically required at Coors Field but now days is frowned upon everywhere else. It looks like he peppers the lower part of the zone with his four-seamer regularly. With his big fastball he looks like a guy who could probably get a lot done pitching up in the zone more often; which is pretty much a cardinal sin in Colorado.

 

His splits away from Coors aren't great but I'd be willing to take a chance that it is due to him using the same pitch strategies both home and away.

 

Speaking of former prospects, though I wouldn't target him specifically, I'd also be curious to see if Jeff Hoffman could be fixed. It looks like he may now be starting the transition to a relief pitcher. I like those starters-turned-relievers a full year after they start the transition, that's when you seem to find the studs who resurrect their careers in a new role. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

By nearly any measure Gray has been a better pitcher than Gibson throughout their careers. And he has 2 more years of team control than Gibson. Why in the world would that be even worth considering for CO?

 

And if for some reason he was put on the block, you don't think 28 other teams wouldn't make an offer better than that?

 

Well, they sent him down, and they are 3.5 games out of the playoffs for one....so I think they'll want MLB talent in return. And, my original offer included a minor league player and possibly taking back part of one of their bad contracts......

 

They aren't dealing Gray for prospects, imo, they are going to want MLB talent plus a minor league player.

 

How about Gibson, Rodney, Gonsalves , and take back around 10MM in some bad contract? 

[yarnivek1972]

Well, they sent him down, and they are 3.5 games out of the playoffs for one....so I think they'll want MLB talent in return. And, my original offer included a minor league player and possibly taking back part of one of their bad contracts......

 

They aren't dealing Gray for prospects, imo, they are going to want MLB talent plus a minor league player.

 

How about Gibson, Rodney, Gonsalves , and take back around 10MM in some bad contract?

Do you really think it is likely Pohlad approves adding payroll?

[TheLeviathan]

 

By nearly any measure Gray has been a better pitcher than Gibson throughout their careers. And he has 2 more years of team control than Gibson. Why in the world would that be even worth considering for CO?

 

And if for some reason he was put on the block, you don't think 28 other teams wouldn't make an offer better than that?

 

Maybe not, but we do know from the past that the Rockies like Gibson.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Do you really think it is likely Pohlad approves adding payroll?

 

I have no idea....maybe they take on some from next year....they are going to drop like 60MM next year. 

[Vanimal46]

Do you really think it is likely Pohlad approves adding payroll?

Yes I do. If there's one thing the new regime has done is show ownership creative ways to acquire better talent by taking on additional payroll or eating more of a bad contract.

[yarnivek1972]

Maybe not, but we do know from the past that the Rockies like Gibson.

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t that a past in which he was throwing a lot more sinkers than he is now?

 

Right now Gibson has the lowest GB/FB ratio of his career and the lowest GO/AO since his rookie year. Unless he can flip the switch back, he doesn’t seem primed for success in Coor’s.

[alarp33]

 

Well, they sent him down, and they are 3.5 games out of the playoffs for one....so I think they'll want MLB talent in return. And, my original offer included a minor league player and possibly taking back part of one of their bad contracts......

 

They aren't dealing Gray for prospects, imo, they are going to want MLB talent plus a minor league player.

 

How about Gibson, Rodney, Gonsalves , and take back around 10MM in some bad contract? 

 

I disagree that if they want to make a playoff push they would trade Gray in general... but I agree with your updated offer might at least make them think.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t that a past in which he was throwing a lot more sinkers than he is now?

Right now Gibson has the lowest GB/FB ratio of his career and the lowest GO/AO since his rookie year. Unless he can flip the switch back, he doesn’t seem primed for success in Coor’s.

 

Perhaps.  Worst thing that happens is they say "No"