Article: Potential Suitors for Brian Dozier

[Mike Sixel]

 

I disagree that if they want to make a playoff push they would trade Gray in general... but I agree with your updated offer might at least make them think.  

 

Well, clearly I agree....but they sent him down, so they must not think he's helping them right now.

[nicksaviking]

 

Do you really think it is likely Pohlad approves adding payroll?

 

Well he approved a record payroll this year and then they saved 8M by dumping Hughes for a draft pick. 

 

That move would look a heck of a lot better if it was cancelled out by doing something similar.

[Vanimal46]

Gibson, Rodney, ok prospect? that might get it done.....or, you know, take back one of their terrible contracts......and reduce the MN cost....

As far as bad contracts, I'd take Bryan Shaw off their hands. His stats are terrible this year but he was an iron man for Cleveland...

[nicksaviking]

 

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t that a past in which he was throwing a lot more sinkers than he is now?

Right now Gibson has the lowest GB/FB ratio of his career and the lowest GO/AO since his rookie year. Unless he can flip the switch back, he doesn’t seem primed for success in Coor’s.

 

He's not actually throwing less sinkers, he's just throwing them less with 2 strikes and less often to left-handed batters.

[alarp33]

 

Well, clearly I agree....but they sent him down, so they must not think he's helping them right now.

 

Yeah, I just don't think there's anyway they look at it and come to the conclusion Gibson would be much more valuable to a playoff push than Gray.  I think any playoff hopes they have likely center around Gray figuring something out soon and rejoining the rotation later this month. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Yeah, I just don't think there's anyway they look at it and come to the conclusion Gibson would be much more valuable to a playoff push than Gray.  I think any playoff hopes they have likely center around Gray figuring something out soon and rejoining the rotation later this month. 

 

It could be, but like a lot of former top prospects he kind of looks like a guy where the home team is starting to view greener pastures. His career trajectory now in his fourth season actually looks a lot like Kyle Gibson at the same point:

 

1st year - Struggle

2nd year - Struggle

3rd year - Yay he turned the corner!

4th year - Nope I guess not

________________________

5th year - Let's trade him for a washed up Troy Tulowitzki

 

Fans from outside of the organization probably still place more value on his former prospect status and draft position while those who watch the Rockies are likely more frustrated by the inconsistency. And it's not like he ever dominated the minors either.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

Fans from outside of the organization probably still place more value on his former prospect status and draft position while those who watch the Rockies are likely more frustrated by the inconsistency.

 

I would look at this nearly the opposite way. The organization (which is what matters, not the fans) has a lot invested in Gray, and probably values him even higher than other organizations do. I don't understand why they would be willing to trade him for someone who comes with less team control and is not a clear upgrade

[jorgenswest]

If Gray is available they will get a better return than those offered here. His peripherals are solid this year so I think the Rockies will have him back up soon. Sending players down around the break is not unusual.

 

I will join in the dream of acquiring Gray for expiring contracts though. I am sure other teams are inquiring about what it would take to pry away Gray. The Twins should be inquiring.

[nicksaviking]

 

I would look at this nearly the opposite way. The organization (which is what matters, not the fans) has a lot invested in Gray, and probably values him even higher than other organizations do. I don't understand why they would be willing to trade him for someone who comes with less team control and is not a clear upgrade

 

I don't know how Gibson wouldn't be considered a clear upgrade. If the Twins were in a pennant race no one here would swap out Gibson for Gray.

 

If the Twins decided today to dump Kohl Stewart or if the team had decided to not pick up Gibson's 2017 option it would/would have been met by Twins fans with a collective yawn, meanwhile fans of the other 29 teams would all be begging for their team to pick up the former prospect sure that their team could fix him.

 

As for the organization's point of view, it has to be as clear to them as it does everyone else that Jon Gray's repertoire is just an awful fit for Colorado. His stuff isn't made to induce groundballs but that's what they've been trying to do, mostly in vain.

 

 

[alarp33]

 

I don't know how Gibson wouldn't be considered a clear upgrade. If the Twins were in a pennant race no one here would swap out Gibson for Gray.

 

If the Twins decided today to dump Kohl Stewart or if the team had decided to not pick up Gibson's 2017 option it would/would have been met by Twins fans with a collective yawn, meanwhile fans of the other 29 teams would all be begging for their team to pick up the former prospect sure that their team could fix him.

 

As for the organization's point of view, it has to be as clear to them as it does everyone else that Jon Gray's repertoire is just an awful fit for Colorado. His stuff isn't made to induce groundballs but that's what they've been trying to do, mostly in vain.

 

- If the playoff game was tomorrow, I probably wouldn't start Gray over Gibson. If it was in 3 months I would certainly think long and hard about it. Gray has been a better pitcher throughout their careers, especially when you adjust for park. It's not even that close. 

 

- Fans don't matter. What we do, say and think has no bearing on how teams operate their roster. 

 

- Since the start of 2017.  Jon Gray's GB% = 47.5%.  Kyle Gibson's GB% = 49.7%. Jon Gray K%/BB% = 26.5%/6.8%. Gibson's = 19.7%/10.5%. What exactly makes Gray a bad fit for Coors yet Gibson a good one?

Edited July 12, 2018 by alarp33

[Mike Sixel]

 

- If the playoff game was tomorrow, I probably wouldn't start Gray over Gibson. If it was in 3 months I would certainly think long and hard about it. Gray has been a better pitcher throughout their careers, especially when you adjust for park. It's not even that close. 

 

- Fans don't matter. What we do, say and think has no bearing on how teams operate their roster. 

 

- Since the start of 2017.  Jon Gray's GB% = 47.5%.  Kyle Gibson's GB% = 49.7%. Jon Gray K%/BB% = 26.5%/6.8%. Gibson's = 19.7%/10.5%. What exactly makes Gray a bad fit for Coors yet Gibson a good one?

 

you'd have to ask teh team, in the middle of a playoff race, that sent Gray down that question.....

[alarp33]

 

you'd have to ask teh team, in the middle of a playoff race, that sent Gray down that question.....

 

Like the Twins sending Gibson down in a playoff race last year? 

[nicksaviking]

 

- If the playoff game was tomorrow, I probably wouldn't start Gray over Gibson. If it was in 3 months I would certainly think long and hard about it. Gray has been a better pitcher throughout their careers, especially when you adjust for park. It's not even that close. 

 

- Fans don't matter. What we do, say and think has no bearing on how teams operate their roster. 

 

- Since the start of 2017.  Jon Gray's GB% = 47.5%.  Kyle Gibson's GB% = 49.7%. Jon Gray K%/BB% = 26.5%/6.8%. Gibson's = 19.7%/10.5%. What exactly makes Gray a bad fit for Coors yet Gibson a good one?

 

Gray is a bad fit because four-seamers aren't naturally supposed to create groundballs but he is or the team is making him throw them almost exclusively low in the zone surely in an attempt to limit HR. They've been getting crushed with an ISO on his four-seamer of .234 this year, likely because the pitch location is so predictable.

 

He's pitching like a sinkerballer without a sinkerball.

[alarp33]

 

Gray is a bad fit because four-seamers aren't naturally supposed to create groundballs but he is or the team is making him throw them almost exclusively low in the zone surely in an attempt to limit HR. They've been getting crushed with an ISO on his four-seamer of .234 this year, likely because the pitch location is so predictable.

 

He's pitching like a sinkerballer without a sinkerball.

 

4 seam fastballs get crushed because they miss middle up, which is what Gray's biggest problem has been (command), not because they consistently stay low in the zone

 

Edited July 12, 2018 by alarp33

[TFRazor]

 

I never said the negotiation hinged on those splits.  It was only an example of ways Dozier's value can be further deflated.  As I said in the last post, there wasn't a market for him last year.  There isn't much of a market this year and he now only a two month rental.

 

I guess we can sell the "Dozier gets hot in the second half angle" but then that is only lip service.  What team is going to part with anything much by pinning their hopes on that?

 

A team that wants to win a title and thinks that they are just a 2B who plays solid defense and could give you 20+ homers away from winning it?

[ewen21]

 

A team that wants to win a title and thinks that they are just a 2B who plays solid defense and could give you 20+ homers away from winning it?

That is all very cute, but we know what happened last year.

 

 

[Aerodeliria]

 

how so? I mean, I'd rather get fifty cents than nothing.....

Well, that's not exactly true. Getting a minor league player who has basically reached his potential is worse than nothing because the player simply becomes someone who takes up a position...

Edited July 25, 2018 by Aerodeliria

[mngopherguy]

 

Yes I do. If there's one thing the new regime has done is show ownership creative ways to acquire better talent by taking on additional payroll or eating more of a bad contract.

 

You may be right, you definitely trust them more than I do.  

[Doomtints]

I would be mildly surprised if the Twins don't get someone mildly interesting for Dozier. There is zero risk in signing him right before he hits free agency, and potentially a lot of reward for one year. And he's cheap.

[Platoon]

I would be mildly surprised if the Twins don't get someone mildly interesting for Dozier. There is zero risk in signing him right before he hits free agency, and potentially a lot of reward for one year. And he's cheap.

No doubt we will be surprised. Sadly I doubt it will be pleasantly.

[tvagle]

A couple unexpected suitors for the Doze

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/indians-giants-showing-interest-in-brian-dozier.html

 

Judging by the returns for Escobar and Pressly I'll suggest from the Giants:

 

Either/Iether/both

 

Blake Rivera #23 MLB Pipeline

Camilo Doval #21 MLB Pipeline

 

As for the other team...well...let's just say I hope that doesn't happen

 

EDIT: might consider the Taiwanese Yu-Tang-Clan dude

Edited July 28, 2018 by tvagle

[diehardtwinsfan]

Cleveland has a nice system, and it never hurts to pillage from it for 2 months of Dozier... That said, the guy that fits our need is Mejia, but that would be an overpay on Cleveland's part. I woudln't mind Shane Bieber or Bobby Bradley either.

 

The Giants system seems a bit weaker, though a few names woudl be good returns. Chris Shaw would fit into the teams' needs. Aramis Garcia might fit there too.

[Dman]

 

Cleveland has a nice system, and it never hurts to pillage from it for 2 months of Dozier... That said, the guy that fits our need is Mejia, but that would be an overpay on Cleveland's part. I woudln't mind Shane Bieber or Bobby Bradley either.

 

The Giants system seems a bit weaker, though a few names woudl be good returns. Chris Shaw would fit into the teams' needs. Aramis Garcia might fit there too.

 

If they trade with the Giants I would try and get Santos or Corry.  Both young pitchers with upside.

 

From Cleveland I would take Oviedo or maybe Nick Sandlin and something extra added.

 

I would try and stick with young pitching that has upside.  It shouldn't hurt teams too much to those types of players up because they are further away and because they are further away you can maximize the value you receive in trade.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Cleveland has a nice system, and it never hurts to pillage from it for 2 months of Dozier... That said, the guy that fits our need is Mejia, but that would be an overpay on Cleveland's part. I woudln't mind Shane Bieber or Bobby Bradley either.

 

The Giants system seems a bit weaker, though a few names woudl be good returns. Chris Shaw would fit into the teams' needs. Aramis Garcia might fit there too.

 

?

 

CLE already traded Mejia.....unless they have another one.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

?

 

CLE already traded Mejia.....unless they have another one.

oops... well there's that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If they trade with the Giants I would try and get Santos or Corry.  Both young pitchers with upside.

 

From Cleveland I would take Oviedo or maybe Nick Sandlin and something extra added.

 

I would try and stick with young pitching that has upside.  It shouldn't hurt teams too much to those types of players up because they are further away and because they are further away you can maximize the value you receive in trade.

 

Those aren't bad gets either, but with all the young upside pitching we have right now, there's a real 40 man issue here, unless these guys don't need to go on the 40 man any time soon. The team needs an ML ready C as well as a 1B/3B/DH type.  I'd probably go for a hitter here unless Cleveland is dangling someone with ace potential at us (and I don't think they would). 

[tvagle]

With this news maybe the 'Stros come calling on the Doze...it's a thought

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

With this news maybe the 'Stros come calling on the Doze...it's a thought

I think it would be longer than a week and a half on the bench to get them to get a replacement. If he's out for the season, then yes.

[Twodogs]

YES, we actually are in agreement here.

 

Remember the Dozier thread last year? Seems hardly worth it to have a reprisal of what happened there. I would be interested to know what kind of prospect we'd get. I actually agree with beckmt. Hard to imagine doing much better than the QO. THat isn't what I want the Twins to do because I feel Dozier has to be moved at this point. He is not a fit here

Just a question, a qualifying offer is for 1 year if I'm correct, who is a better fit at 2nd base for the Twins next year?? Someone who hasn't even played there yet?

[jimbo92107]

 

I think it would be longer than a week and a half on the bench to get them to get a replacement. If he's out for the season, then yes.

Houston trading for Doz might work, but they missed a much better opportunity with Esco.