Article: Real Deal: What Would It Take To Get J.T. Realmuto?

[caninatl04]

May I attempt to summarize?

Question 1: what will it take?

Answer: a lot

Question 2: should the Twins pay it?

Answer: maybe

Question 3: will they?

Answer: probably not...

 

[markos]

 

High level arms are going to take this team further than an elite catcher. The Twins can get by with an average catcher and good to elite position players; they aren't going anywhere in the postseason without multiple high end arms. This organization has shown no desire to add those types of pitchers in FA so growing it is our only hope at the moment. That doesn't mean Romero or Graterol will be top of the rotation guys but right now they're the best shot this team has at building a rotation that won't be bounced in a divisional round matchup. 

 

The question is whether what you're giving up is worth potentially only 2 years of service. 

The flip side of this is that nothing is more volatile than high-upside, young, unproven pitching prospects, and that a team should always jump at a change to exchange young pitching for elite position players. For example, here are the top 10 ranked pitching prospects from 2015:

Lucas Giolito

Julio Urias

Tyler Glasnow

Steven Matz

Alex Reyes

Sean Newcomb

Jose Berrios

Jose De Leon

Jon Gray

Robert Stephenson

 

And personally, if you are worried about winning in the post-season, create an elite bullpen.

[KirbyDome89]

 

The flip side of this is that nothing is more volatile than high-upside, young, unproven pitching prospects, and that a team should always jump at a change to exchange young pitching for elite position players. For example, here are the top 10 ranked pitching prospects from 2015:

Lucas Giolito

Julio Urias

Tyler Glasnow

Steven Matz

Alex Reyes

Sean Newcomb

Jose Berrios

Jose De Leon

Jon Gray

Robert Stephenson

 

And personally, if you are worried about winning in the post-season, create an elite bullpen.

I would wager that lesser touted arms are even more volatile, which is to say that not all prospects aren't created equally. 

 

A shutdown bullpen is nice, but you need a starting staff capable of getting you through a 162 game season + at least 5-6 innings per playoff appearance. We've seen firsthand how subpar starting rotations can drag a bullpen down. 

Edited July 10, 2018 by KirbyDome89

[markos]

I've been thinking about this way too much today, but here is where I'm at with this concept:

 

Should the Twins deal for Realmuto?

 

No. There is too much uncertainty around Buxton and Sano. Too much of the future success (at least over the next two seasons) relies on them meeting expectations. In order to take the leap into the upper echelon of the league, they need to add more elite players. I get that. But decent seasons from Buxton and Sano (and Polanco) should be enough to put the team into position to be buyer at next season's deadline.

[Mike Sixel]

 

High level arms are going to take this team further than an elite catcher. The Twins can get by with an average catcher and good to elite position players; they aren't going anywhere in the postseason without multiple high end arms. This organization has shown no desire to add those types of pitchers in FA so growing it is our only hope at the moment. That doesn't mean Romero or Graterol will be top of the rotation guys but right now they're the best shot this team has at building a rotation that won't be bounced in a divisional round matchup. 

 

The question is whether what you're giving up is worth potentially only 2 years of service. 

 

They've shown no desire to add elite position players in FA or trades either....so I'm not sure how that matters.

 

I'll ask again, where do people expect this team to get A LOT better in the next two years if you won't trade for players?

[KirbyDome89]

IMO the sticking point here is the price to be paid for a potential short term tenure.

 

1) Not all prospects are created equally. Yes, they’re volatile, but Kiriloff, Lewis, and/or Romero have a much better chance of becoming productive major league players than even a 3-4th round pick this year. These guys aren’t locks, no prospects are, but too often players with varied skill sets across all levels of the minors are all grouped together as lottery tickets.

 

2) The question isn’t whether the Twins should make the move because they’re uncertain of their ability to contend in the next two years. I agree that the time to contend is supposed to be now. The goal shouldn’t be pushing the window back. If we’re talking 2020 and beyond there’s a good chance most of the current core is gone, and we’re looking at once again moving the goalposts for being competitive. Teams can, and should, be building be collecting pieces leading up to, and during their window of contention.

 

3) Even though this team is supposed to be contending, and adding Realmuto certainly helps, there is a point where the price becomes too great. Like I said, if the Twins were able to work out an extension, or I believed they would be willing to win the bid for him in FA then I can stomach what they’d give up. If he’s only here for 2 years then making the move for him, especially given the situation with Buxton and Sano, seems like a bigger gamble than holding onto minor league talent.

Edited July 10, 2018 by KirbyDome89

[Thrylos]

 

If the Twins are as serious about contending as they say they are, they have to show the willingness to do whatever it takes to acquire Realmuto and sign Machado for the 2019 season, no excuses.


I’m sorry, but we shouldn’t expect anything less than a lineup like this next year.


CF- Bryce Harper
C- J.T. Realmuto
SS- Manny Machado
LF- Eddie Rosario
3rd- Eduardo Escobar
1st- Kennys Vargas (Maybe Hanley Ramirez?)
DH- Mitch Garver
2nd- Jorge Polanco
RF- Max Kepler

 

FTFY

Edited July 10, 2018 by Thrylos

[KirbyDome89]

 

They've shown no desire to add elite position players in FA or trades either....so I'm not sure how that matters.

 

I'll ask again, where do people expect this team to get A LOT better in the next two years if you won't trade for players?

I'm not advocating that they don't look to trade for talent. I'm saying the price they'll ultimately have to pay seems a bit high for only 2 years of said talent. 

[TFRazor]

 

He's, by far, the best catcher in baseball for one. And with the position scarcity I can't imagine him being more valuable than now.

I would actually argue for Salvy Perez but that's more picking apples as opposed to oranges. Can't actually disagree with your point. Carry on.

[alarp33]

 

I would actually argue for Salvy Perez but that's more picking apples as opposed to oranges. Can't actually disagree with your point. Carry on.

 

The same Salvy Perez with a .255 obp this year?

[Major League Ready]

 

If we're "not in a window," why do we care if we have control of "core players" through 2021-22?

 

Would it be because...we're "in a window?"

 

Or would it be that Lewis/Graterol/Gordon/Kiriloff et al aren't "core players" at all.

 

They're prospects.

If you define a window as a possibility of winning the Central, yes, I would say there is a possibility in the next couple of years. If a window means being an actual contender, no, we are not in a window until the many things that need to get addressed are improved. We would be 20 games back in the east or west. Competing with the real contenders would require considerably better starting pitching, an overhaul of the bullpen, replacing Dozier at 2B, replacing Mauer at 1B, not to mention any hope of contending would require Buxton and Sano to both sustain a level of play they have shown at times but they have not shown a glimpse of that play this year. Oh and catcher too.

 

Trading long-term assets in order to have Realmuto for 2019-20 is a horrendously poor plan. If the team does not sort all of these problems you have given away the guys most likely to help the team when this does get sorted out. If it does somehow all go our way .... FANTASTIC, there will always be players that can be added by trading away great prospects.  At least at that point we will know with much greater precision what we need to add.

 

The cubs traded away Samardzija when they were on the brink. Why, because 6 years of Russel is waaaay better when you have not quite arrived but are expecting to contend soon. I bet Arizona wish they had not traded away Swanson before they were ready. Short-term focus is a good way to really suck long-term.

 

 

[TFRazor]

 

The same Salvy Perez with a .255 obp this year?

If you mean the Salvy Perez who is just as good historically with his bat and also has 28 defensive runs saved over his career as opposed to Realmuto's negative 14drs (that's a 42 run difference btw) then yeah. I think I could argue that Perez is the better all around catcher. If we're just pulling at a down year to discuss then let's go to 2014 for Realmuto. Only had a 267obp and 611ops that year. This season is the first time he's ever had an OPS over 800 and we're only half way home. There are such things as slumps. Also, Salvy is 28. Realmuto is 27. Not like we're saving much on age here.

[twinssporto]

If Buxton and Sano were playing like they have always been projected, yes I would make the trade.  Since the core 4 is now 2 at the moment I think it's better to keep the young talent in the organization.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you define a window as a possibility of winning the Central, yes, I would say there is a possibility in the next couple of years. If a window means being an actual contender, no, we are not in a window until the many things that need to get addressed are improved. We would be 20 games back in the east or west. Competing with the real contenders would require considerably better starting pitching, an overhaul of the bullpen, replacing Dozier at 2B, replacing Mauer at 1B, not to mention any hope of contending would require Buxton and Sano to both sustain a level of play they have shown at times but they have not shown a glimpse of that play this year. Oh and catcher too.

 

Trading long-term assets in order to have Realmuto for 2019-20 is a horrendously poor plan. If the team does not sort all of these problems you have given away the guys most likely to help the team when this does get sorted out. If it does somehow all go our way .... FANTASTIC, there will always be players that can be added by trading away great prospects.  At least at that point we will know with much greater precision what we need to add.

 

The cubs traded away Samardzija when they were on the brink. Why, because 6 years of Russel is waaaay better when you have not quite arrived but are expecting to contend soon. I bet Arizona wish they had not traded away Swanson before they were ready. Short-term focus is a good way to really suck long-term.

 

only worrying about the future is a good way not to ever have a present, also. 

 

I don't think anyone is saying sell the whole farm. I don't think anyone is saying sign every FA, or trade for a guy that is only here this year.

 

I'd guess that once they "know" if Buxton and Sano are good, no 2.5 year elite player will be available in the time that they "know" that. So, you are then trading real assets for half a year, most likely, and we'll get to read about how that's a terrible idea. Which I know, because I've read that here over and over.

[USAFChief]

 

OK, I got a chance to glance through the previous comments. I think the problem is a lot of people are thinking the options are either you sell the farm for Realmuto or you're stuck with Castro/Garver/Wilson.

 

The Twins should have plenty of payroll room to go out and sign a Yasmani Grandal or a Wilson Ramos this offseason. Are they as good as Realmuto? No, but they also wouldn't cost you any prospects. Plus, here are their numbers over the past two seasons combined:

 

Realmuto .291/.341/.484, .352 wOBA, 120 wRC+

Grandal .246/.320/.456, .332 wOBA, 108 wRC+

Ramos .278/.319/.461, .331 wOBA, 111 wRC+

 

And according to Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average, Grandal is the best defensive catcher in baseball this season at +10.9. Realmuto is at +2.2 and Ramos right at average, 0.0.

I'd be ok with that approach, too.

[Mike Sixel]

ramos is 30 and Grandal 29....

 

Are people good giving three year deals to catchers over 30 at the beginning of the contract, at 10-20MM per year?

[markos]

 

They've shown no desire to add elite position players in FA or trades either....so I'm not sure how that matters.

 

I'll ask again, where do people expect this team to get A LOT better in the next two years if you won't trade for players?

I think they get a lot better if Buxton, Sano and Polanco are merely league-average players next year. League average isn't a huge bar to reach - they have all be better than that in the past. Doing some hand-wavy, back-of-the-envelope calculations, just reaching that level would improve this teams run differential by ~40 runs, give or take. And let's say that is 4 wins. Now the team is 44-44 with a +20 run differential. Obviously, they didn't manage that this year, and there are no guarantees. But they can get A LOT better with the players they have. 

 

And this doesn't even factor in the their 5-16 record in 1-run games. 

[alarp33]

If you mean the Salvy Perez who is just as good historically with his bat and also has 28 defensive runs saved over his career as opposed to Realmuto's negative 14drs (that's a 42 run difference btw) then yeah. I think I could argue that Perez is the better all around catcher. If we're just pulling at a down year to discuss then let's go to 2014 for Realmuto. Only had a 267obp and 611ops that year. This season is the first time he's ever had an OPS over 800 and we're only half way home. There are such things as slumps. Also, Salvy is 28. Realmuto is 27. Not like we're saving much on age here.

Huh? 2014 was Realmuto’s rookie year and he played 11 games and had 29 at bats. That’s your argument that everyone has a down year?

 

Perez has had an OPS+ higher than 91 1 time in the past 5 seasons. He’s not even in the conversation for best catcher in baseball

 

“Just as good historically with bat”. Perez has a career 97 OPS+, Realmuto is at 112

Edited July 10, 2018 by alarp33

[TFRazor]

 

Huh? 2014 was Realmuto’s rookie year and he played 11 games and had 29 at bats. That’s your argument that everyone has a down year?

Perez has had an OPS+ higher than 91 1 time in the past 5 seasons. He’s not even in the conversation for best catcher in baseball

“Just as good historically with bat”. Perez has a career 97 OPS+, Realmuto is at 111

You've got your opinion I've got mine. My initial post seemed pretty innocuous for you to go straight to terminator mode

[alarp33]

 

You've got your opinion I've got mine. My initial post seemed pretty innocuous for you to go straight to terminator mode

 

You are certainly entitled to your opinion, I'm just curious how you arrived at Perez. He's 12th in War (900 or more PA) at catcher in the past 3 years, so I wouldn't have even considered him part of the conversation

[nicksaviking]

 

ramos is 30 and Grandal 29....

 

Are people good giving three year deals to catchers over 30 at the beginning of the contract, at 10-20MM per year?

 

The team is looking at a 45M payroll next year. I think it's going to be pretty difficult to take on a new contract that's going to end up being a burden.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The team is looking at a 45M payroll next year. I think it's going to be pretty difficult to take on a new contract that's going to end up being a burden.

 

money sure, but people here all the time say no to players that age....that's why I'm asking the question.

 

I would....not sure everyone would be.

[alarp33]

 

money sure, but people here all the time say no to players that age....that's why I'm asking the question.

 

I would....not sure everyone would be.

 

I don't know that there is anyone here who has said never to sign a 30 year old to a 3 year deal. 

 

I'm sure there are plenty (me included) who would not give either Ramos or Grandal more than 3 years. 

[markos]

 

The team is looking at a 45M payroll next year. I think it's going to be pretty difficult to take on a new contract that's going to end up being a burden.

I know the $45M number has been used quite a bit here and there, but baseball reference is projecting ~$75M for 2019 if one includes guaranteed, arbitration and league-minimum salaries. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/minnesota-twins-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

Obviously some wiggle room with arbitration costs, but I think $45M is a slightly misleading baseline.

[TFRazor]

 

You are certainly entitled to your opinion, I'm just curious how you arrived at Perez. He's 12th in War (900 or more PA) at catcher in the past 3 years, so I wouldn't have even considered him part of the conversation

I want a catcher to at least break even when it comes to costing your team runs defensively. This season Realmuto has the exact same number of defensive runs saved as Bobby Wilson.... In 31 more games. I'm not sure I want more Bobby Wilson-esque defense. I never said you couldn't argue that Realmuto is the best catcher in the league. I don't think he is, but you can argue it. Just as I can do the same with Perez and you don't have to agree with it. Until Realmuto shows that he's just as good behind the plate as he is in the batters box I'm going to have to take a hard pass on crowning him best catcher in the league.

 

 

[rv78]

What would it take to get Realmuto?

Answer?

 

TOO MUCH!

[Major League Ready]

 

OK, I got a chance to glance through the previous comments. I think the problem is a lot of people are thinking the options are either you sell the farm for Realmuto or you're stuck with Castro/Garver/Wilson.

 

The Twins should have plenty of payroll room to go out and sign a Yasmani Grandal or a Wilson Ramos this offseason. Are they as good as Realmuto? No, but they also wouldn't cost you any prospects. Plus, here are their numbers over the past two seasons combined:

 

Realmuto .291/.341/.484, .352 wOBA, 120 wRC+

Grandal .246/.320/.456, .332 wOBA, 108 wRC+

Ramos .278/.319/.461, .331 wOBA, 111 wRC+

 

And according to Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average, Grandal is the best defensive catcher in baseball this season at +10.9. Realmuto is at +2.2 and Ramos right at average, 0.0.

This makes faaaaar more sense to me, especially given we have 60M+ in payroll coming off the books. 1B is another chance in FA to upgrade our offense. The rest of the available payroll budget could get spent on SP and BP.

Edited July 10, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[alarp33]

 

I want a catcher to at least break even when it comes to costing your team runs defensively. This season Realmuto has the exact same number of defensive runs saved as Bobby Wilson.... In 31 more games. I'm not sure I want more Bobby Wilson-esque defense. I never said you couldn't argue that Realmuto is the best catcher in the league. I don't think he is, but you can argue it. Just as I can do the same with Perez and you don't have to agree with it. Until Realmuto shows that he's just as good behind the plate as he is in the batters box I'm going to have to take a hard pass on crowning him best catcher in the league.

 

But Salvador Perez is not even the best defensive C in baseball? He was 8th in DRS last season. And he can't hit

[Mike Sixel]

 

This makes faaaaar more sense to me, especially given we have 60M+ in payroll coming off the books. 1B is another chance in FA to upgrade our offense. The rest of the available payroll budget could get spent on SP and BP.

 

Have you looked at the FA list for 1B and SP? Good luck with that.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html

[TFRazor]

But Salvador Perez is not even the best defensive C in baseball? He was 8th in DRS last season. And he can't hit

I really don’t know what you’re looking for here. All I’m saying is that in my completely personal, not binding on anyone else opinion, I believe Perez to be one of the best in baseball. You don’t have to agree. More importantly I don’t care. I do however apologize that such an innocuous statement got you so riled up. My bad. Moving on