Topkin: Jose De Leon to have Tommy John surgery

[Seth Stohs]

 

This just in, Jose De Leon is going to have Tommy John surgery. That was always a big concern and why a 1-for-1 swap for Brian Dozier was wisely never completed. 

[gil4]

 

 

This just in, Jose De Leon is going to have Tommy John surgery. That was always a big concern and why a 1-for-1 swap for Brian Dozier was wisely never completed. 

Wisely or luckily, depending on who pulled the plug on it.

[Danchat]

Yup, that was a bullet dodged. I remember hearing the Dodgers had at least offered De Leon and one or two more prospects, but they weren't good enough for Falvey/Levine.

[Vanimal46]

Was he a higher risk of TJS compared to any other pitcher in professional baseball? Sucks for De Leon. Good luck to him in his recovery. 

[KirbyDome89]

Right now Dozier is clearly more valuable than De Leon.

 

JDL may have been the best offer they were going to get, and at the time I was in favor of moving Dozier. I would've been in favor of almost any market value deal for Dozier. 

 

The fact JDL hasn't been able to stay healthy doesn't mean the decision to forego any trade for Dozier was the right one. The impetus for trading him was the lack of pitching. That's still a massive problem for this franchise. We can pat the FO on the back for not making the JDL deal, but it has been 2 years now and the Twins are still in bad situation in regards to pitching. The whole point of a Dozier trade was to help fix that. 

 

This isn't an extreme case of "I'd rather try and fail than not try at all," and Dozier clearly has provided value since the decision to hold onto him, but I have a hard time getting too excited. It looks like he could be on his way out the door this offseason, and the pitching staff once again is set up to be a major weakness.

[prouster]

Turning down a 1-1 Dozier for DeLeon swap was the right choice at the time. Everything since is evidence of why.

[darin617]

Just another reason when you can move a prospect for an established player to not be afraid to make the deal.

[bird]

We won a wild card berth last year. DeLeon would not have helped us advance further. Dozier was an instrumental part of that achievement. It could even be argued that without Dozier, the wild card doesn't happen. Last year.

 

This year might be different, who knows? Despite his theoretically depleted value due to the year we enjoyed from him and his anticipated added cost, maybe trade offers come in looking better, and maybe his expected production isn't as crucial to the team's success.

[jkcarew]

 

The fact JDL hasn't been able to stay healthy doesn't mean the decision to forego any trade for Dozier was the right one.

Tough crowd.

 

The alternatives were to seek and accept an offer lesser than the deal involving JDL...or accept a better offer that as far as anyone can substantiate never existed.  Don't see how (given what we know) hanging on to the best player on the team for another year or two damaged the franchise too much.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Tough crowd.

 

The alternatives were to seek and accept an offer lesser than the deal involving JDL...or accept a better offer that as far as anyone can substantiate never existed.  Don't see how (given what we know) hanging on to the best player on the team for another year or two damaged the franchise too much.

Maybe he helps them slug their way past the WC game this season. Who knows. I never said the decision to hold onto him damaged the team.

 

The point of moving Dozier was to bring back pitching help, so I was on board with trading him. They decided to keep him, and that has turned out to be a good move, but they haven't done much to improve a poor rotation. Like I said, Dozier has provided value, but I'm not going to applaud the FO for the decision not to trade him, when they've done little to address the area that necessitated trading him, and to boot they're seemingly willing to let him go for a compensation pick. He can't be too valuable to trade then suddenly not valuable enough to extend. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

That was always a big concern and why a 1-for-1 swap for Brian Dozier was wisely never completed. 

 

There is zero evidence that it was an 1-1 swap.   Just talk.  As there was talk that  the Twins insisted on Bellinger and that's why it did not happen.

 

Hope the kid is fine, btw.

[jkcarew]

 

He can't be too valuable to trade then suddenly not valuable enough to extend. 

I disagree.  It is reasonable for the front office to view his value to the Twins drastically differently in 2019-2021 than they did for 2017.  The fact that Dozier was the best player on the Twins in 2016, but would not be expected to be the best player (or even close) on other contending teams is precisely what made it hard to get value in a trade.

 

The FO has to expect that as Dozier gets older and especially as Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, etc develop, that they will be able to replace his offensive production elsewhere and his value to the Twins decreases (again, especially relative to what he will cost).

 

I agree that the Twins need pitching above all else...also like you, will probably end up wishing we had got something/anything for Dozier if he ends up leaving.  But, I don't blame the FO for not pulling the trigger on him last off-season...at least based on what we know.

[Seth Stohs]

 

There is zero evidence that it was an 1-1 swap.   Just talk.  As there was talk that  the Twins insisted on Bellinger and that's why it did not happen.

 

Hope the kid is fine, btw.

 

Yup, he's a talented kid. Hopefully surgery will allow him to get back on the mound and be what he can become.

 

But, the Twins could insist on Bellinger all they wanted (and they should have), but the Dodgers weren't doing that. There were many reports nationally that the Dodgers wouldn't up their offer from De Leon for Dozier.  

[kab21]

The whole JDL trade talks is another example of the Twins FO being less interested in high injury risk pitchers. We saw that again this winter with Bard, Burdi and Chargois being made available in Rule V or waivers.

This seems to be a trend. Durability is valued by the FO.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I disagree.  It is reasonable for the front office to view his value to the Twins drastically differently in 2019-2021 than they did for 2017.  The fact that Dozier was the best player on the Twins in 2016, but would not be expected to be the best player (or even close) on other contending teams is precisely what made it hard to get value in a trade.

 

The FO has to expect that as Dozier gets older and especially as Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, etc develop, that they will be able to replace his offensive production elsewhere and his value to the Twins decreases (again, especially relative to what he will cost).

 

I agree that the Twins need pitching above all else...also like you, will probably end up wishing we had got something/anything for Dozier if he ends up leaving.  But, I don't blame the FO for not pulling the trigger on him last off-season...at least based on what we know.

I think he's more valuable to a team that is nearing or at contention rather than one coming off a 100+ loss season. Keeping him was a "win now," move which was fine, the issue was that they really didn't do much to set the team up to win beyond retaining Dozier, and now with the Twins starting to open a window of contention, it seems they're content to let him walk. 

 

You're more bullish on replacing him than I am. I don't think it's as easy as everybody picking up the slack. They're going to miss his bat in the lineup.  

 

I don't think praise is in order when they haven't addressed the issue that warranted the Dozier trade talks. That isn't the same as blaming the FO. 

[Riverbrian]

Injuries happen and they ain't exactly predictable so I won't use the injuries to declare JDL would have been a bad trade target in hindsight. 

 

I have no idea what was offered or even talked about so I'm really not comfortable pretending I know for sure... However... The only name consistently mentioned in the rumors was JDL and JDL ended up being the only guy traded to get Forsythe so I'm under impression it was a 1-1 swap. I could be wrong. 

 

If true... I was against that trade because a player Brian's proven ability should be worth more than one minor league prospect not in the top ten. 

 

I was also against that trade because the Dodgers had a lot of talented prospects yet only JDL was consistently rumored. Right or wrong... I made an assumption that was because JDL was the player the Dodgers would like to part with. Meaning... the other guys on the farm were better in the Dodgers opinion. 

 

I was happy the trade didn't happen and am still happy it didn't happen and his health has nothing to do with it. 

 

 

[kab21]

 

Injuries happen and they ain't exactly predictable so I won't use the injuries to declare JDL would have been a bad trade target in hindsight. 

 

But there are many pitchers and (prospect and MLB'ers) that have injury risk in their scouting report and/or an injury history. Sometimes these pitchers make it without a serious injury but many times they actually end up with a serious arm injury. Like Meyer or any of seemingly a dozen of the Twins RP prospects that we have been hopeful for. 

For example, JDL had been injured the year before and scouts had mentioned (IIRC) that his mechanics could lead to an arm injury. Any pitcher can get injured but I am not going to completely ignore red flags like that. It will be taken into consideration.

[The Wise One]

 

Maybe he helps them slug their way past the WC game this season. Who knows. I never said the decision to hold onto him damaged the team.

 

The point of moving Dozier was to bring back pitching help, so I was on board with trading him. They decided to keep him, and that has turned out to be a good move, but they haven't done much to improve a poor rotation. Like I said, Dozier has provided value, but I'm not going to applaud the FO for the decision not to trade him, when they've done little to address the area that necessitated trading him, and to boot they're seemingly willing to let him go for a compensation pick. He can't be too valuable to trade then suddenly not valuable enough to extend. 

To make a trade it takes 2 parties that want what each other has and willing to part with what they have. Pitching is a fairly universal need. 2B is not. It makes it that much more difficult to make a trade for pitching. 

[bighat]

 

Just another reason when you can move a prospect for an established player to not be afraid to make the deal.

 

Ding ding ding. I completely agree - especially a 1-for-1 deal. I know that 99% of us are super happy the Twins didn't pull the trigger on that trade.

 

Here's hoping DeLeon makes a full recovery and lives up to his potential in the long run. The Rays have had some terrible setbacks with prospects this year, damn.

[Riverbrian]

 

But there are many pitchers and (prospect and MLB'ers) that have injury risk in their scouting report and/or an injury history. Sometimes these pitchers make it without a serious injury but many times they actually end up with a serious arm injury. Like Meyer or any of seemingly a dozen of the Twins RP prospects that we have been hopeful for. 

For example, JDL had been injured the year before and scouts had mentioned (IIRC) that his mechanics could lead to an arm injury. Any pitcher can get injured but I am not going to completely ignore red flags like that. It will be taken into consideration.

 

That's true... could also explain why the Dodgers seemed to insist on moving him. 

[Guest]

Just another reason when you can move a prospect for an established player to not be afraid to make the deal.

There are many examples of when this reasoning doesn’t work, such as Smoltz, Bagwell and Wilson Ramos. Even Archer, for whom many people would like to trade a boatload of prospects, was twice traded with other prospects in exchange for established players - Mark DeRosa and Matt Garza. The current management of Cleveland and the Cubs probably wishes those teams hadn’t made those trades, but also realizes the trades are part of the reason why the previous management is previous.

 

Judgment is required. You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There are many examples of when this reasoning doesn’t work, such as Smoltz, Bagwell and Wilson Ramos.

Bagwell and Ramos were traded for rental relief pitchers (OK, Capps had an extra year of control, but it wasn't even cheap), and Smoltz was traded for a 36 year old 103 ERA+ rental starter. Both Bagwell and Smoltz were even traded during the August waiver period, which gives you an indication of what kind of value they were returning. I think you can have a reasonable definition of "established player" of value that doesn't include those 3 veteran returns.

 

Even Archer, for whom many people would like to trade a boatload of prospects, was twice traded with other prospects in exchange for established players - Mark DeRosa and Matt Garza.

And that's another stretch to include multi-prospect packages in this definition.

 

But I agree that there is no universal rule, either for players or teams. Even here, while this was a solid trade for the Dodgers, would the Rays really have been better off keeping Forsythe and not rolling the dice on De Leon? And I've long contended that the Span for Meyer deal favored Washington at the time, but it's not clear the circa-2012 Twins would have done better by keeping Span either.

[jkcarew]

It seems that the concept of 'value of marginal wins' at play.  If you have 'established players', but the near term expected value of the extra wins they provide is essentially zero (because the club is not ready to compete)...then you would expect the selling team to accept more risk in considering such trades (all other things, like contract status, being equal).

 

The marginal wins provided by Dozier in 2017 made him very valuable to the Twins.  However, when the Twins were shopping him coming off the 103-loss 2016 campaign, it would have been very understandable if they had acted more aggressively than they did.

 

And then, sometimes you just get lucky.

[Tomj14]

 

There are many examples of when this reasoning doesn’t work, such as Smoltz, Bagwell and Wilson Ramos.

I would be bet there are WAY more examples of prospects that didn't turn out to be anything then there are of Smotlz and Bagwell. I am not sure Ramos has turned out to be a guy we really regret unless you don't discount the injuries.

[bobs]

  We tend to react positively or negatively to every move the new FO makes.  So far, I think they've done a great job.  NOT getting duped into taking DeLeon for Dozier might be their best move to date!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I am not sure Ramos has turned out to be a guy we really regret unless you don't discount the injuries.

Yes, he has. Ramos was worth 3 wins more than what we trotted out at catcher in 2011 alone -- obviously those wins "didn't matter" in hindsight, but they did at the time. (Easy to forget we were only 5-6 games out of first place in late July that year before we collapsed at the very end.) At the very least, even if the Twins still slide into irrelevance and remain committed to Mauer at catcher, Ramos would have been much, much more valuable than Capps within a year of that trade.

 

You could actually look at it the other way too: Capps turned out to be a guy we really didn't need. He was generally effective for us, but he was not a critical part of us pulling away from the White Sox that August/September, was completely irrelevant in the postseason, and not worth much in 2011 either.

[Guest]

I would be bet there are WAY more examples of prospects that didn't turn out to be anything then there are of Smotlz and Bagwell. I am not sure Ramos has turned out to be a guy we really regret unless you don't discount the injuries.

I would bet it’s close to 50-50. It is a mistake to think there’s a clear rule or pattern, instead of having to measure each potential deal individually. Of course, that may not be as fun for hot takes.

[Parker Hageman]

The interesting angle to me is that while this trade was being considered, it was at a time when Josh Kalk, who is being touted as an analytics pitching guru, was with the Rays. Presumably, he and his team review all facets of DeLeon and signed off on this deal.

 

This goes to show that no matter how advanced the data and analytics teams might be, it's still not going to keep pitchers from breaking down. 

 

Obviously there are a lot of things to consider about this. It's possible that Kalk and his team spotted flaws and risk potential but decided to green light it based on the low cost. Perhaps they figured even if he does have injuries, he'd still be able to provide value after recovery. It might be worth a Logan Forsyth but not a Brian Dozier. Lots of factors in the decision-making process for the Rays.

 

[Guest]

Bagwell and Ramos were traded for rental relief pitchers (OK, Capps had an extra year of control, but it wasn't even cheap), and Smoltz was traded for a 36 year old 103 ERA+ rental starter. Both Bagwell and Smoltz were even traded during the August waiver period, which gives you an indication of what kind of value they were returning. I think you can have a reasonable definition of "established player" of value that doesn't include those 3 veteran returns.

 

 

And that's another stretch to include multi-prospect packages in this definition.

 

But I agree that there is no universal rule, either for players or teams. Even here, while this was a solid trade for the Dodgers, would the Rays really have been better off keeping Forsythe and not rolling the dice on De Leon? And I've long contended that the Span for Meyer deal favored Washington at the time, but it's not clear the circa-2012 Twins would have done better by keeping Span either.

Not fully understanding your comment about Bagwell and Smoltz being traded mid-season. Even if they were traded on April 1 for the veterans in exchange, getting the prospects would have been better.

 

Trading Ramos for Capps is defensible, but it does not support an argument that it’s better to get veterans and trade prospects.

 

Regarding the Rays, it may be that Dozier > De Leon > Forsythe. It may also be that that they made an error in judgment. It may also be that the Rays have a unique situation that causes them to weigh non-talent factors more heavily than other teams do.

[Tomj14]

 

I would bet it’s close to 50-50. It is a mistake to think there’s a clear rule or pattern, instead of having to measure each potential deal individually. Of course, that may not be as fun for hot takes.

I would take that bet, the fact that people are using Bagwell and Smotlz as examples, (those happened about 30 years ago)

I mean the Colon to the expos trade would be another and that was ~17 years ago.

Maybe you could say the Teixeira to the Braves in 2007 for Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison and that was 10 years ago.

there are probably a few more I missed.

But there have been a ton of trades that include highly regarded prospects that haven't came back to hurt the team, or the player helped the team win or get close to the world series.

I would bet the Tigers wouldn't take back trading Miller to the Marlins for Cabrera.